Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007
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Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in of Ozone in Georgia in 2007 2007 Daniel Cohan Daniel Cohan Presentation to Georgia EPD Presentation to Georgia EPD November 20, 2003 November 20, 2003
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Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007. Daniel Cohan Presentation to Georgia EPD November 20, 2003. Year 2000 Emissions. Projection. Year 2007 Emissions. Aug. 2000 Meteorology. CMAQ – DDM3D. Projected Concentrations (e.g., O 3 ). Projected Sensitivities (e.g., dO 3 /dNO x ). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007
Sensitivity Analysis of Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007Ozone in Georgia in 2007
Daniel CohanDaniel CohanPresentation to Georgia EPDPresentation to Georgia EPD
November 20, 2003November 20, 2003
Year 2000 Emissions
Year 2007 Emissions Aug. 2000 Meteorology
CMAQ – DDM3D
Projected Concentrations(e.g., O3)
Projected Sensitivities(e.g., dO3/dNOx)
Projection
Sens. Parameter(e.g., VOC Emissions)
Conc.(e.g., O3)
ppjj
∆∆CCii
DDM DDM andand Brute ForceBrute Force
nn p
CS
0
0
ppCCS
n
nn
2
22
nn p
CS
I.C., B.C.,Emissions
Advection &Diffusion
Chemistry
ConcentrationsConcentrations(t)(t)
SensitivitiesSensitivities(t)(t)
Chemistry
Decoupled Direct Method 3DDecoupled Direct Method 3DConcentrationsConcentrations
(t+(t+ΔΔt)t)
SensitivitiesSensitivities(t+(t+ΔΔt)t)
Flexibility of DDM• Sensitivity of all concentrations to:
– Emissions, initial conditions, or boundary conditions…
– …of any one or more species…– …from any location…– …at any time…– …from any category of emissions.
• e.g., sensitivity to non-road emissions of NO and NO2 in Fulton County between 2pm-6pm
Sensitivities computed so far…• August 11-20, 2000, 2007 projection:
– Atlanta MSA• Point, Mobile, Area+Non-road NOx• Total VOC• 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC
– Macon MSA• Mobile, non-mobile NOx• Branch & Scherer NOx (1st and 2nd order)• Total VOC• 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC
– Augusta MSA• Mobile, point, area+non-road NOx• Total VOC• 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC
– Columbus MSA NOx
DDM Statistical Agreement: DDM Statistical Agreement: rr22 of DDM vs. Brute Force (+/- 10% NO of DDM vs. Brute Force (+/- 10% NOxx))
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug
1st-Order r2
2nd-Order r2
August 15
August 16
August 17
August 18
August 19
August 17: Difference Plot
Impact of Atlanta: Aug. 17
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug
ATL VOC
ATL Area NOX
ATL Point NOX
ATL Mobile NOX
Average Sensitivity of 8-hour Ozone at Atlanta Monitors
Macon Ozone
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug
observations
model 2000
model 2007
Macon
Atlanta
Branch
SchererSensitivity of 8-hour ozone to NOx, Aug. 17
Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Macon
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug
Atlanta NOXBranchSchererMacon Non-mobileMacon Mobile
Augusta OzoneAugusta Ozone
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
11-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
15-Aug
16-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
Ozo
ne (p
pmv)
observations
model_2000
model_2007
Augusta, Aug. 17
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug
SchererBranchMacon NOXAtlanta NOXAugusta VOCAugusta AreaAugusta PointAugusta Mobile
Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Augusta
Columbus, Aug. 17
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug
Atlanta VOC
Atlanta NOX
Columbus NOX
Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Columbus
Emissions
Ozone1st-Order: 1st-Order: E * SE * S11
22ndnd-Order:-Order:0.5(0.5(E)E)22 * S * S22
Taylor-Series Expansion:Taylor-Series Expansion:Decomposing Changes in OzoneDecomposing Changes in Ozone
EAEB
O3,A
O3,B
A
B
Significance of 2nd Order (Atlanta, Aug. 17)
0.050
0.055
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
0.090
0.095
0.100
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Change in Atlanta NOX
Ave
rage
ATL
8-H
our O
zone
(ppm
v)
1st Order Only
Include 2nd Order
-75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
Change in VOC Emissions
Change in N
Ox Em
issions
0.105-0.110
0.100-0.105
0.095-0.100
0.090-0.095
0.085-0.090
0.080-0.085
0.075-0.080
0.070-0.075
Average of ATL Monitors, Aug. 17
Next Steps• Associate sensitivities with emission
rates to get ppb_ozone / tons_NOx for control strategy analysis
• 1999 Episode• Your suggestions?
