Sensitivity analysis of BT16 scenarios - Energy.gov · Base-case scenario, $60/ dt2022 Base-case...
Transcript of Sensitivity analysis of BT16 scenarios - Energy.gov · Base-case scenario, $60/ dt2022 Base-case...
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Sensitivity analysis of BT16 scenariosLaurence EatonORNL
Acknowledgements:
Mark Elless, Steve Thomas (DOE-BETO), Matthew Langholtz, Maggie Davis (ORNL)
March 7, 2017
2 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Today’s presentation
• Why are energy crops important to the bioeconomy?• What are price and land impacts of energy crop
scenarios to traditional crops?
• What is sensitivity of energy crops to alternate assumptions of yield and land elegibility?
Source: http://www.nexsteppe.com/a-new-sorghum-for-biofuels/
Biomass sorghumMiscanthus x giganteus
Source: http://articles.extension.org/pages/26625/miscanthus-miscanthus-x-giganteus-for-biofuel-production
3 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Why energy crops?• Energy crops fill supply gap to a
billion ton annual supply• Competitive across crop and
pastureland, even in Corn Belt
• Measured market impacts
Base-case scenario, $60/dt 2022
Base-case scenario, $60/dt 2040
4 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Relation of BT16 results to historical and future commodity prices• Baseline scenario as
reference without shocks• Corn futures March 1,
2017= $3.72/bu,– 1-year range: $3.25-4.50/bu– 3-year range $3.10-7.20/bu
• BT16 results– Baseline, 2016: $3.50, 2040:
$3.77– Basecase, 2040: $4.03– Crossprice elasticities of
biomass to commodity crops all <1
BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Corn weighted average seasonal prices2001-current
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
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$5.00
$6.00
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$8.00
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Actual prices
Simulated price, 2009 USDA Baseline
5 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Land allocation of energy crops, base case
• Differential response of across energy crops to $60
• Energy crops competitive across ag land
• Switchgrass represents largest pastureland holder, miscanthuscropland holder
• Represents only 8.3% of pastureland and cropland
26%
39%
20%
9%6% 0.1%
Cropland
54%
26%
9%
7%4% 0.1%
Pastureland
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
Poplar and Pine
Willow and EucalyptusBiomass Sorghum
Energycane
6 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Stakeholder feedback received in BT16 rollout
• Miscanthus yield growth and supply too optimistic– Miscanthus x giganteus (MxG) sterile triploid– Future improvements will require new varieties
• Sorghum supply too pessimistic– New varieties already exist– “Plug-and-play” annual crop
• Mix of feedstocks in BT16 can change with R&D improvements
7 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
BT16 Agricultural Results, 2040
All crops increase in supply from base to high yield;MxG benefits disproportionately relative to other energy
crops from yield growth assumptions
3%/year1%/year
$60/dry ton
0
50
100
150
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BT16 BT16
411.1 million tons 736.1 million tons
Base Case High Yield
Mill
ion
dry
tons
/yea
r
SwitchgrassMiscanthusPoplars and PineWillows and EucalyptusBiomass SorghumEnergy cane
8 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Alternate scenarios descriptions
Scenario Description
Base case BT16 scenario, MxG and biomass sorghum at 1%, biomass sorghum on 1 in 4 year rotation
Miscanthus focus, base case Miscanthus at 0% annual yield gain
Sorghum focus, base case Biomass sorghum at 1 in 2 year rotation and on pastureland
9 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Alternate scenarios descriptions
Scenario Description
Base case BT16 scenario, MxG and biomass sorghum at 1%, biomass sorghum on 1 in 4 year rotation
Miscanthus focus, base case Miscanthus at 0% annual yield gain
Sorghum focus, base case Biomass sorghum at 1 in 2 year rotation and on pastureland
High Yield BT16 scenario, MxG at 3% per year and biomass sorghum at 1.75% per year, biomass sorghum on 1 in 4 year rotation
Miscanthus focus, high yield MxG at 1% annual yield gain
Sorghum focus, high yield Biomass sorghum at 3% per year and 1 in 2 year rotation and sorghum on pastureland
10 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Basecase and high yield results, $60/dt, 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt 736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
Base Case High Yield
Mill
ion
dry
tons
/yea
r
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
Poplars and Pine
Willows and Eucalyptus
Biomass Sorghum
Energy cane
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
High Yield
11 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Basecase and high yield results, $60/dt, 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt 736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
Base Case High Yield
Mill
ion
dry
tons
/yea
r
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
Poplars and Pine
Willows and Eucalyptus
Biomass Sorghum
Energy cane
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
High Yield
focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt
Base Case
736.1 mil dt
12 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Basecase and high yield results, $60/dt, 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt 736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
Base Case High Yield
Mill
ion
dry
tons
/yea
r
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
Poplars and Pine
Willows and Eucalyptus
Biomass Sorghum
Energy cane
and high yield results, $60/and high yield results, $60/
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt
Base Case
13 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Basecase and high yield results, $60/dt, 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt 736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
Base Case High Yield
Mill
ion
dry
tons
/yea
r
Switchgrass
Miscanthus
Poplars and Pine
Willows and Eucalyptus
Biomass Sorghum
Energy cane
focus
736.1 mil dt 600.4 mil dt 788.3 mil dt
High Yield
and high yield results, $60/and high yield results, $60/
BT16 Miscanthus focus
Sorghum focus
411.1 mil dt 359.8 mil dt 468.3 mil dt
Base Case
14 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Conclusions
• Market effects of energy crops are measured in BT16 and fall within recent historical variability
• Land allocation of energy crops is diverse
• Small changes in feedstock growth parameters and land eligibility result in significant changes in feedstock mix
• BT16 scenarios capture reference case, but may not be “one size fits all” resource assessment
15 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Thank you for your attention!
Laurence EatonOak Ridge National Laboratory
16 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Additional Slides
21 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Land allocation of energy crops, base case
• Differential response of across energy crops to $60
• Energy crops competitive across ag land
• Switchgrass represents largest pastureland holder, miscanthuscropland holder
• Represents only 8.3% of pastureland and cropland
Note: figure doesn’t include crop rotations rather transitions of county acreage allocated to crops in beginning and ending year
National acreage transitions 2017-2040, Base case
23 BT16 Sensitivity scenarios
Supply comparison to BT16, $60, 2040
Comparison to Base case
Comparison to High yield
Miscanthusfocus
Sorghumfocus
Miscanthusfocus
Sorghumfocus
Stover 0% 0% 2% 2% Straw 0% 0% 4% 4% Switchgrass 27% -28% 56% -6% Miscanthus -79% -23% -208% -215% Poplars 26% -4% 99% 80% Willows 46% -2% 157% 140% Biomass Sorghum 45% 740% 106% 1156% Energy cane 0% 0% 133% -367%
Reformat table to be same as slide 6 color scheme; highlight notable results
here. How does this support