Sensex at 18k – the Journey Ahead…

@Analyse India

SENSEX … Past Year !

Join the two important tops in near term.

Create a Parallel Line

Plot it across the important bottom formed.

The last 4 tops/bottoms were precisely spot.

Parallel Channels – Worked exactly

Momentum Lines – Caution!!

The upmove from the bottoms were trending

moves.

The four momentum lines show the trending move.

Break below the trendline lead to sideways move or

breakdown

17800 is a level below which markets would confirm

a breakdown in short term.

Momentum Lines – Caution!!

Trend Deciders

The Channel suggests market should be in 18500-

16300 range

Till Index doesn’t move out of the band Flip-Flop .

A fresh directional move of 2000-2500 points possible

on breakout

18600 and 16200 on closing basis would be Trend

Deciders

Trend Deciders

Your Neck is on line

Fibo Cushions

Ideally before moving up we would expect some

retracement.

Break below 17800 opens up markets to

17400/17100.

Re-entry/Fresh Allocations can be done at 17k-17.4k.

Stoploss would be 16700 on closing basis.

Ideally 61% retracement should not be broken.

Fibo Entry Points

Toss – Heads & Tales

Lift kara de, Thodi si tu lift kara de, 21k phir dikha de!!

Nahi… Nahi….Yeh din dekhne se pehle main Mar kyun

nahi gaya

Arre cassette badlo yaar! Same song, again?

Ell(id)iot Perspective 2nd November, 2009

“Sensex is headed to

1000”

Sensex zoomed from 9700 to 16k.

Arrows showing the direction

This count was discussed in May /April 2009.

Hardly any one believed the possibility of a

turnaround then.

Since then market has traced the journey of B wave

as expected.

No change of the major wave count seen yet.

I don’t bother about the sub-waves

Elliot Wave Perspective

A

B

C C-5 failure

AA

BB

BB?????

Ell(id)iot Persp... we again stick our neck out?!

Ever since 9700-1000 cross we are still on Major B

wave.

We can confirm a B wave top only when 15900-15600

breaks.

B wave can end at 18400 or even at 21k-23k also.

On the sub wave counts all the possible

alphabets/legs used up

That clearly suggests a directional move is on cards.

Elliot Wave Perspective

Ideally 20.5k or 14k should be seen in next 3

quarters.

Boring case scenario would be Flip-Flop which we are

timing well.

My Personal View :Dip to 17.4k-17k and then 20.5k.

Will review as and when we reach 17.4k or 18.6k is

crossed.

Short term Skeptical – Medium Term/Long Term

Optimistic

Final Technical Conclusions.