Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 1 What...

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1Senate department of urban development

Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz

What urban air quality managers want to know What urban air quality managers want to know from modelersfrom modelers

and what they want them to deliver for the NEC reviewand what they want them to deliver for the NEC review

Martin LutzSenate Department for Urban Development, Berlin

Directorate IX, Environment Policy

brief recap: what AQ legislation wants AQ managers to do?

emerging requirements for modelling

EU context: revision of NEC & CAFE Directive

problems and some conclusions

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attainment date [2005 for PM10, 2010 for NO2]: limit value must be met everywhere*

time

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cent

ratio

n in

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omer

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above margin of tolerance: AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date

below limit value: pollution levels reported. maintain good air quality

between limit value and margin of tolerance: pollution levels reported to Commission, if needed, take measures so that limit value are met by attainment date

now

EU limitvalue

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*where people are directly or indirectly exposed for a period which is significant in relation to the averaging period of the limit value


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cent

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n in

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omer

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above margin of tolerance: AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date

below limit value: pollution levels reported. maintain good air quality


now

EU limitvalue

max

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cent

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n in

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aggl

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requirements for AQ managementrequirements for AQ management as set out as set out in EU Framework Directivein EU Framework Directive

exceedances of Alert thresholds

exceedances of limit values

draw up ashort-term short-term action planaction plan

(smog alarm, temporarily suspending

polluting activities, e.g.

traffic ban)

draw up anaction planaction plan withwith

measures to be taken measures to be taken in the short-termin the short-term

action plans if limit values are (likely to be) still exceeded

&&draw up a

(long-term) long-term) plan&programplan&program

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AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps) scope for application of scope for application of modelsmodels

Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution?Is there a problem with air pollution?

assessmentassessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values Area of non-compliance, trends

Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? sourcesource analysis

scales: local, urban, regional, continental source apportionment

source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, …

Are current measures sufficientAre current measures sufficient for compliance ? Estimate impact of current measures and legislationEstimate impact of current measures and legislation

includes effects of national and EU-wide measures

If not, which extra measures to take? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?will limit values be met? Estimate effect of additional measuresEstimate effect of additional measures planned

Further possible long-term measureslong-term measures & their benefits

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• 450 km road sections in non-450 km road sections in non-attainmentattainment

• 190.000 affected residents190.000 affected residents

24h limit valueannual limit value

current current situation (base year 2002) situation (base year 2002) modelled modelled PM10PM10 in street canyons in street canyons

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by banning road traffic by banning road traffic in selected areas we in selected areas we

were achieving a were achieving a significant reduction of significant reduction of

PM10 pollutionPM10 pollution

AQ assessment and resulting actionAQ assessment and resulting action the conventional wisdom the conventional wisdom

we need a stronger commitment for we need a stronger commitment for modelling in the new AQ Directivemodelling in the new AQ Directive

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AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps)AQ Plans&Programmes (P&Ps) Structural Structural templatetemplate required by EU law required by EU law

Requisite issues to be dealt within a Plan& Program…. Is there a problem with air pollution?Is there a problem with air pollution?

assessmentassessment of the air pollution against the AQ limit values Area of non-compliance, trends

Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much?Where does it come from, who’s to blame & for how much? sourcesource analysis

scales: local, urban, regional, continental source apportionment

source sectors: transport, industry, domestic, …

AreAre current measures sufficient current measures sufficient for compliance ? EstimateEstimate impact of current measures and legislation impact of current measures and legislation

includes effects of national and EU-wide measures

If not, which extra measures to take? If not, which extra measures to take? will limit values be met?will limit values be met? EstimateEstimate effect of additional measures effect of additional measures planned

Further possible long-term measureslong-term measures & their benefits

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requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to timetime scales/resolution scales/resolution

modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !!management !!

P&Ps P&Ps usually have a usually have a long-termlong-term scope (5-10 years) scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hocshort-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) measures (smog-alert) looseloose relevancerelevance

limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peakslimited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks large-scale PM background and transportlarge-scale PM background and transport non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteonon-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo

health effects dominated by long-term exposurehealth effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value

compliancecompliance mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly

(1 year) new revised AQ Directive: new revised AQ Directive:

no short-term actionno short-term action plans for attainment of plans for attainment of limit valueslimit values no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes ! simulation of frequency distribution is sufficient but need to cover several years so as to compensate

meteo fluctuations

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draw up a(long-term)long-term) P&P, P&P, including measures including measures taken asap after the compliance datetaken asap after the compliance date

requirements for AQ managementrequirements for AQ management as set out as set out in EU Framework Directivein EU Framework Directive

exceedances of Alert thresholds

exceedances of limit values

draw up ashort-term short-term action planaction plan

(smog alarm, temporarily suspending

polluting activities, e.g.

traffic ban)


time

max

. co

nce

ntr

atio

n in

th

e ag

glo

mer

atio

n o

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ne

marginoftolerance

above margin of tolerance:AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date

below limit value:pollution levels reported. maintaingood air quality


now

EU limitvalue

max

. co

nce

ntr

atio

n in

th

e ag

glo

mer

atio

n o

r zo

ne



time

max

. co

nce

ntr

atio

n in

th

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glo

mer

atio

n o

r zo

ne

marginoftolerance

above margin of tolerance:AQ plans&programsto develop so that EU limit values are met by the attainment date

below limit value:pollution levels reported. maintaingood air quality


now

EU limitvalue

max

. co

nce

ntr

atio

n in

th

e ag

glo

mer

atio

n o

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requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to timetime scales/resolution scales/resolution

modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ modelling is essential in all stages and levels of AQ management !!management !!

P&Ps P&Ps usually have a usually have a long-termlong-term scope (5-10 years) scope (5-10 years) short-term ad-hocshort-term ad-hoc measures (smog-alert) measures (smog-alert) looseloose relevancerelevance

limited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peakslimited effectiveness for abatement of PM and NO2 peaks large-scale PM background and transportlarge-scale PM background and transport non-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteonon-linearity of NO-NO2 conversion, strong dependency on meteo

health effects dominated by long-term exposurehealth effects dominated by long-term exposure measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value measures ”to be taken in the short-term” for limit value

compliancecompliance mostly durable measures to be implemented fairly quickly

(1 year) new revised AQ Directive: new revised AQ Directive:

no short-term actionno short-term action plans for attainment of plans for attainment of limit valueslimit values no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes !no need to resolve single pollution peaks or episodes ! simulation of frequency distribution is sufficientsimulation of frequency distribution is sufficient but need to cover several years so as to compensate but need to cover several years so as to compensate

meteo fluctuationsmeteo fluctuations

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requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to with respect to spatialspatial scales/resolution scales/resolution

PM10 [µg/m³]

urban background

regional background

hemispheric/natural background

Urban areas countryside

1015

20

30

25

35

40 Traffic, local sources

monitoring sites

total urban contribution relevant for AQ LV compliance

urban increment

hot spot increment

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ConclusionsConclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot incrementhot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)

notnot muchmuch relevancerelevance within the NECNEC review quitequite relevantrelevant with respect to AQ LVLV compliance

for Commission/Council/EPCommission/Council/EP: are vehicle emission standards sufficientsufficient to curb hot spot increment ?

for locallocal AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal

urbanurban incrementincrement needs resolution down to 1x1 km needs resolution down to 1x1 km22

quite quite relevantrelevant for for NECNEC review & AQ review & AQ LVLV compliance compliance regionalregional backgroundbackground needs resolution ~ needs resolution ~ 10x10 km10x10 km

absolutelyabsolutely essentialessential for NEC review for NEC review importantimportant for AQ for AQ LVLV compliance compliance dominates also dominates also urbanurban exposureexposure gainsgains importance with transition to importance with transition to PM2.5PM2.5

we need to resolve these 3 scales properlywe need to resolve these 3 scales properly we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling we need (sort of) multi-scale modelling

for AQ management AND for NEC reviewfor AQ management AND for NEC review

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change in spatial distributionchange in spatial distribution PM10 vs PM2.5 PM10 vs PM2.5

Origin of PM10 in Berlin*

local traffic increment

26%

urban background increment

26%

regional background

48%

*based on measurements

**based on modelling

Origin of PM2.5 in Berlin

local traffic increment*

16%

regional background**

59%

urban background increment**

25%

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ConclusionsConclusions relevant for modelling…. hot spot incrementhot spot increment needs micro-scale modelling (e.g. street canyon)

notnot muchmuch relevancerelevance within the NECNEC review quitequite relevantrelevant with respect to AQ LVLV compliance

for CommissionCommission: are vehicle emission standards sufficientsufficient to curb hot spot increment ?

for locallocal AQ management: impact of traffic management/reduction, vehicle fleet renewal

urbanurban incrementincrement needs resolution down to 1x1 km needs resolution down to 1x1 km22

quite quite relevantrelevant for for NECNEC review & AQ review & AQ LVLV compliance compliance regionalregional backgroundbackground needs resolution ~ needs resolution ~ 10x10 km10x10 km

absolutelyabsolutely essentialessential for NEC review for NEC review importantimportant for AQ for AQ LVLV compliance compliance dominates also dominates also urbanurban exposureexposure gainsgains importance with transition to importance with transition to PM2.5PM2.5

we need to we need to resolveresolve these 3 scales these 3 scales properlyproperly we need (sort of) we need (sort of) multi-scale modellingmulti-scale modelling

for AQ management for AQ management ANDAND for NEC review for NEC review

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1x1 km2

~30x30 km2

4x4 km2

Air pollution control planning in Berlin Air pollution control planning in Berlin multi-scale model calculations multi-scale model calculations

street canyon

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Long-term trend of PM10 and EC in & around BerlinLong-term trend of PM10 and EC in & around Berlin differentiated for regional & urban scale differentiated for regional & urban scale

regional background consists of city periphery data in upwind position

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PM

10 [

µg

/m³]

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

EC

[µ

g/m

³]

regional background

urban contribution (traffic + background)

EC traffic

2005: EC bis Okt, ohne WR

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impact of various control scenarios for 2010 impact of various control scenarios for 2010 differentiated for regional & differentiated for regional & urban scaleurban scale

Expected decrease of PM10 in Berlin

-10% -10% -10% -10%

-8% -10% -11% -15%

-4% -13% -24% -30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 CLE 2010 LEZ 2010 LEZ StEP

2010

"MFR"

ann

ual

ave

rag

e P

M10

[µ

g/m

³]

local increment

urban increment

regional BG

-9% -11% -13% -14%

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requirements for modellingrequirements for modelling with respect to ( with respect to (cost-)effectiveness cost-)effectiveness

where is it most (cost-)effective to take action ??? answer is essential both for NEC review …answer is essential both for NEC review …

find the right balance between measures to curb …find the right balance between measures to curb … the regional backgroundthe regional background the urban incrementthe urban increment

aim to achieve the maximum benefit (% exposure reduction) aim to assist compliance with AQ LV

…and for AQ LV attainment local AQ management to find balance between actionlocal AQ management to find balance between action

to reduce the hot spot incrementto reduce the hot spot increment to lower the urban (background) incrementto lower the urban (background) increment

for CommissionCommission to identify need to tighten EU regulation on emissions (vehicle standards, LCP, IPPC)

need need quantitative estimatesquantitative estimates of control potential of of control potential of urban measuresurban measures and their costs and their costs including economic measuresincluding economic measures

need to feed it somehow need to feed it somehow into IAMinto IAM

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conclusion conclusion what do AQ managers want modelers to deliver?what do AQ managers want modelers to deliver?

in generalin general models that models that resolveresolve the the spatialspatial scales properly scales properly models which resolve the models which resolve the frequency distributionfrequency distribution properly properly models which are fast enough for models which are fast enough for multi-annual runsmulti-annual runs models which assist in source analysis models which assist in source analysis (multi-components)(multi-components)

in relation to thein relation to the NEC NEC review review models which take themodels which take the urban increment urban increment into accountinto account

city deltacity delta an approach to enshrine thean approach to enshrine the urban contribution into IAM urban contribution into IAM (integrated assessment) models (integrated assessment) models which assist in striking awhich assist in striking a fair balance fair balance

between between local local action andaction and EU measures EU measures in relation toin relation to forecast forecast AQ AQ LV complianceLV compliance multi-scale model framework which allows a compliance estimatemulti-scale model framework which allows a compliance estimate

for the Commission for the Commission to review the PMxx LVs within CAFÉ IIto review the PMxx LVs within CAFÉ II CAFÉ I has largely failed to estimate the scope for complianceCAFÉ I has largely failed to estimate the scope for compliance

for local AQ managers for local AQ managers to check whether/by when their P&Ps achieve to check whether/by when their P&Ps achieve compliance of LVs compliance of LVs

many P&Ps failed to provide any estimate of compliance many P&Ps failed to provide any estimate of compliance

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6th Environment Action Program

Controlling emissions

.....to achieve levels of air qualitylevels of air quality that protectprotect all people effectively againstagainst recognised health effectshealth effects from air pollution and take into account the protection of the environment

National Emission Ceilings

EU-legislation on emission control of certain type of installations

Stationary sources

Improving Air Quality

AQ Framework Directive

AQ Framework Directive

SO2, PMPM, NO2NO2, lead

AQ standards basic assessment criteria action plans, reporting

Benzene, CO

Ozone

Heavy metalsPAH

trigger for further measures

Air pollution control in the EUAir pollution control in the EU

EU-Standards for vehicle emission and fuel quality(EURO III - V)

Mobile sources

Complementary measures on a

locallocal level

achieve Air Quality standards

Economic measures Road pricingFiscal incentives for BAT Energy taxesScrappage schemesRestricted access

Voluntary agreementswith industry,e.g. with ACEA

Acidification, Eutrophication

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Berlin‘s „Luftreinhalteplan“ on the web: Berlin‘s „Luftreinhalteplan“ on the web:

http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.dehttp://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/umwelt/luftqualitaet/de//umwelt/luftqualitaet/de/luftreinhalteplanluftreinhalteplan//

Thank you !Thank you !

Senate department of urban development Unit IX D: air pollution and noise control, M. Lutz 1 What...

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