SEMINAR WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA...

SEMINARSEMINAR

WAR BY PROXY:WAR BY PROXY:A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?

AssocAssoc.. Prof. Prof. MUSTAFA KİBAROĞLUMUSTAFA KİBAROĞLUBilkent Bilkent UUniversitniversityy

International Relations DepartmentInternational Relations Department

www.mustafakibaroglu.comwww.mustafakibaroglu.comkibar@[email protected]

CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISMCENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISMANKARA - TURKEYANKARA - TURKEY

17 April 200617 April 2006

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WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?

Separatist terrorism differs from terrorism carried out in Separatist terrorism differs from terrorism carried out in the name of ideology, religion or economic gainthe name of ideology, religion or economic gain

SeparatistSeparatist terrorists attempt to forge national identity and terrorists attempt to forge national identity and aimaim to mobilize a community by appealing to the to mobilize a community by appealing to the nationalistic background of a particular ethnic grounationalistic background of a particular ethnic groupp

Violence plays a special role in Violence plays a special role in separatistseparatist terrorism. It terrorism. It keeps an idea alive and sustains the conflict, even when keeps an idea alive and sustains the conflict, even when political objectives are far out of reachpolitical objectives are far out of reach

The fear created by violence polarizes The fear created by violence polarizes cultural cultural differencesdifferences within a society and weakens the will to stay togetherwithin a society and weakens the will to stay together

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Separatist terrorism becomes an effective instrument to Separatist terrorism becomes an effective instrument to use in “war by proxy strategy” between rival statesuse in “war by proxy strategy” between rival states

Without considerable logistical support of all sorts from Without considerable logistical support of all sorts from other states, separatist terrorist groups can hardly achieve other states, separatist terrorist groups can hardly achieve their objectivestheir objectives

States fighting against separatist terrorist groups must States fighting against separatist terrorist groups must address not only the root-causes of address not only the root-causes of the the terroristterrorists’s’ claims claims but alsobut also,, and even more powerfully, and even more powerfully, deal with the states deal with the states that support terrorismthat support terrorism

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PKK terrorism is an exemplary case where the degree of PKK terrorism is an exemplary case where the degree of terror has been directly proportional to the degree of terror has been directly proportional to the degree of logistical support given by outside powerslogistical support given by outside powers

PKK, the self-proclaimed “representative” of the “ethnic PKK, the self-proclaimed “representative” of the “ethnic demands” of the Kurds in Turkey, received substantial demands” of the Kurds in Turkey, received substantial support of various sorts from different countriessupport of various sorts from different countries

OriginallyOriginally, , as a Marxist-Leninist organization, support of as a Marxist-Leninist organization, support of the Soviet Union the Soviet Union to the PKK to the PKK was almost for grantedwas almost for granted

Eventually, seen as “freedom fighters”, support of the Eventually, seen as “freedom fighters”, support of the Western European states came alongWestern European states came along

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More specifically, logistical support given by Syria has More specifically, logistical support given by Syria has been the most significantbeen the most significant,, which enabled the PKK to inflict which enabled the PKK to inflict bloody terror attacks upon Turkey since the early 1980s bloody terror attacks upon Turkey since the early 1980s

There are diverging views among analysts about the “root-There are diverging views among analysts about the “root-causes” of PKK terrorismcauses” of PKK terrorism

Until mid-1990s analysts claimed that Turkey would not be Until mid-1990s analysts claimed that Turkey would not be able to deal with the PKK able to deal with the PKK terrorism terrorism without addressing without addressing these root-causes. these root-causes.

Most analystsMost analysts usually declined to acknowledge the impact usually declined to acknowledge the impact of outside support to the terrorist organizationof outside support to the terrorist organization

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However, there were other reasons why Turkey could not However, there were other reasons why Turkey could not deal with the PKK properlydeal with the PKK properly

Even though Turkey was a NATO member, PKK’s atrocities Even though Turkey was a NATO member, PKK’s atrocities were not were not acknowledgedacknowledged as “armed attack from outside” as “armed attack from outside” that would invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty that would invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty

Turkey’s force posture was deployed regarding the Turkey’s force posture was deployed regarding the colossal threat perceived from the Soviet Union. colossal threat perceived from the Soviet Union.

Syria, backed up by the Soviet Union, was hardly deterred Syria, backed up by the Soviet Union, was hardly deterred from supporting the PKK as Turkey’s troop concentration from supporting the PKK as Turkey’s troop concentration along the Syrian border was rather weak until early 1990salong the Syrian border was rather weak until early 1990s

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Destabilization of Turkey’s southeast was expected, among Destabilization of Turkey’s southeast was expected, among others, to retard the grandiose GAP development project others, to retard the grandiose GAP development project which was not welcomed by Syriawhich was not welcomed by Syria

Syria thought it could negotiate with Turkey “sharing” the Syria thought it could negotiate with Turkey “sharing” the waters of the Euphrates and the Tigris rivers in return for waters of the Euphrates and the Tigris rivers in return for putting a halt to its support to the PKKputting a halt to its support to the PKK

Prolonged low intensity conflict with the PKK Prolonged low intensity conflict with the PKK claimed the claimed the lives of 35,000 people and lives of 35,000 people and drained Turkey’s treasurydrained Turkey’s treasury

Yet, the PKK could not win the hearts and minds of its Yet, the PKK could not win the hearts and minds of its “fellow Kurds” who are spread all over the country and “fellow Kurds” who are spread all over the country and who are the first class citizens of Turkeywho are the first class citizens of Turkey

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Dramatic changes have taken place in and around Turkey, Dramatic changes have taken place in and around Turkey, such as:such as:

Iraqi invasion of Kuwait & the “No-fly-Zones”Iraqi invasion of Kuwait & the “No-fly-Zones”

Dissolution of the Warsaw Pact & CFE TreatyDissolution of the Warsaw Pact & CFE Treaty

Disintegration of the Soviet UnionDisintegration of the Soviet Union

Turkey’s “alliance” with IsraelTurkey’s “alliance” with Israel

All of All of which have affected the pace of the fight against the which have affected the pace of the fight against the PKK and its staunch supporter SyriaPKK and its staunch supporter Syria

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Turkey’s troop concentration along the Syrian border Turkey’s troop concentration along the Syrian border increased several foldsincreased several folds

Syria anticipated the dire consequences of sustained Syria anticipated the dire consequences of sustained support to the PKK unless it unleashed the head of the support to the PKK unless it unleashed the head of the terrorist organization who had long been to Damascusterrorist organization who had long been to Damascus

Turkey and Syria signed the “Adana Protocol” in Turkey and Syria signed the “Adana Protocol” in October October 1998 which incorporated clear cut acknowledgement by 1998 which incorporated clear cut acknowledgement by Syria of its past supSyria of its past suppport to the PKKort to the PKK

Soon after the head of PKK ended up in a jail in Turkey in Soon after the head of PKK ended up in a jail in Turkey in February February 19991999

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In accordance with its European vocation, Turkey realized a In accordance with its European vocation, Turkey realized a number of substantial Constitutional and legal reforms number of substantial Constitutional and legal reforms along with political and economic packages all of which along with political and economic packages all of which were welcomed even by the critics of Turkey were welcomed even by the critics of Turkey

Attempts to solve the so-called “Kurdish problem”, which, Attempts to solve the so-called “Kurdish problem”, which, according to many analysts, necessitated addressing its according to many analysts, necessitated addressing its root-causes were well underway since thenroot-causes were well underway since then

Turkey’s EU candidacy and the start of the accession Turkey’s EU candidacy and the start of the accession negotiations in 2005 were the results of a series of negotiations in 2005 were the results of a series of achievements, among others, particularly in this fieldachievements, among others, particularly in this field

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Notwithstanding the well acknowledged achievements and Notwithstanding the well acknowledged achievements and tthehe reforms that are bearing fruit, the PKK terrorism seems reforms that are bearing fruit, the PKK terrorism seems to to resurgeresurge

The situation in northern Iraq, the status of Kirkuk, in The situation in northern Iraq, the status of Kirkuk, in particular, and close link between particular, and close link between the the Kurdish tribes Kurdish tribes in Iraq in Iraq and the PKK in the region enables the terrorists to venture and the PKK in the region enables the terrorists to venture in a new wave of attacksin a new wave of attacks

The pace of attacks is likely to aggravate over the next two The pace of attacks is likely to aggravate over the next two years until the confusion about the future status of Kirkuk years until the confusion about the future status of Kirkuk is somehow resolvedis somehow resolved

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There are undeniable facts and figures which help corrolate There are undeniable facts and figures which help corrolate the war by proxy strategy of rival countries the war by proxy strategy of rival countries toto the pace of the pace of separatist terrorism that a country has to endureseparatist terrorism that a country has to endure

The linkage between the PKK and its supporter Syria has The linkage between the PKK and its supporter Syria has been decisive been decisive inin the degree of terror that Turkey endure the degree of terror that Turkey enduredd

Addressing the political, social, cultural and economic Addressing the political, social, cultural and economic root-causes of terrorism is surely a necessity. root-causes of terrorism is surely a necessity.

However, this may not always be a remedy to the problem However, this may not always be a remedy to the problem if if the proxy the proxy war strategy is adopted by the rivaling stateswar strategy is adopted by the rivaling states

SEMINARSEMINAR

WAR BY PROXY:WAR BY PROXY:A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?

AssocAssoc.. Prof. Prof. MUSTAFA KİBAROĞLUMUSTAFA KİBAROĞLUBilkent Bilkent UUniversitniversityy

International Relations DepartmentInternational Relations Department

www.mustafakibaroglu.comwww.mustafakibaroglu.comkibar@[email protected]

CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISMCENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISMANKARA - TURKEYANKARA - TURKEY

17 April 200617 April 2006

SEMINAR WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA...

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