The Evolving (Global and) National Security Landscape: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other Emerging Technologies

August-December 2019Dr Keagle

keaglej@ndu.edu ; keaglej@gmail.com202-685-3700 (wp)

703-764-0726 (hp); 571-455-8436 (cp)

COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): Change brings with it challenges—at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels. It involves behaviors and cultures with often deep-seated traditions.

This means we will need to be very flexible and adaptable with readings and the focus of individual classes—as the world in December will be dramatically different than the world in August. Moore’s law X 10? As me move beyond silicon chip-based semiconductors!

Where will 5G take us? Augmented and Virtual Reality? Cloud vs. edge computing, data requirements, etc. and the bandwidth to support?

This course will explore the scope and magnitude of the transformational forces at work in the U.S. and to a lesser extent the global security and defense establishments. By its nature the course will be about peace and war—how the nation goes about the business of preparing, equipping, and training itself to deter and if necessary to fight traditional wars and the new kinds of challenges that might lead to armed conflict as well as shaping the post war environment for an enduring peace—but do NOT think about this as a linear process. It will also be about sociology, bureaucratic politics, the role of the media, economics, health care, power…. Most of all this semester it will be about the transformational nature and effects of AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS and ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (RAS/AI) and other Emerging Technologies on security and the budget pressures on the national security/ defense budgets—and where to consider taking acceptable risks—geographically and functionally and force posture wise (for example, do we need a $1Trillion nuclear modernization program; or 2400+ F-35s; or 12 carrier battle groups?). THIS AGENDA NOW IS BEING SHAPED GOVERNMENTS and the PRIVATE SECTOR—COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE 3rd OFFSET. (The roots of this can be found in Secretary Hagel’s 214 Innovation Initiative. http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/603658)

Among the Carter/Work priorities that still seem relevant in 2018 are:

1. Artificial Intelligence;2. Robotics;3. Autonomy;4. Hypervelocity;5. Cyber; and 6. Directed energy weapons (High powered microwaves and lasers).

Key principles all need to understand are the inter-relationships between and among Big Data, Algorithms, and Quantum Computing.Point 2—as DoD considers its JEDI contract, what is the future of the cloud, bandwidth, and edge requirements? Issues of size, weight and power are critical—and bandwidth requirements will be far short of sufficient to meet the needs of centralized data storage and its transmission. What does that say for hierarchical/centralized decision making vs collaborative and decentralized decision making and mission command?

Here are some readings just in to suggest this field is moving so quickly:

https://tnsr.org/2018/05/artificial-intelligence-international-competition-and-the-balance-of-power/

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610379/heres-how-the-us-needs-to-prepare-for-the-age-of-artificial-intelligence/ one worth the read to organize our thinking

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/05/14/how-frightened-should-we-be-of-ai looks at Hollywood and the metaphysical questions, among other issues

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/henry-kissinger-ai-could-mean-the-end-of-human-history/559124/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-the-most-important-tech-contest-since-the-space-race-and-america-is-losing/2018/05/11/7a4a4772-4e21-11e8-b725-92c89fe3ca4c_story.html?utm_term=.b320f43a5ee9

https://www.evaluationengineering.com/china-challenges-the-u.s.for-quantum-computing-prowess

cnas site

https://www.cnas.org/artificial-intelligence-and-global-security

https://www.cnas.org/ai-task-force

Princeton and ethicshttps://freedom-to-tinker.com/2018/05/21/princeton-dialogues-of-ai-and-ethics-launching-case-studies/

https://aiethics.princeton.edu/

some good reading lists embedded in this link https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/artificial-intelligence-index?c=us_us_artificialintel_10100797&n=psgs_generic_phrase_artificial_intelligence_1217&c=ad_usadfy17_10000001&n=psgs_Generic-|-AI-|-US-|-Phrase_artificial-intelligence&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI0rrx19yK3AIV0EoNCh1iUAHiEAMYASAAEgLAmPD_BwE

Pearl and AIhttps://www.quantamagazine.org/to-build-truly-intelligent-machines-teach-them-cause-and-effect-20180515/

This is driving change in R&D and the public-private partnership between DOD and industry.

Think speed and preserving decision space. What is happening to the OODA loop/ is it becoming more akin to a DOOA loop?We shall examine the challenges of each service and the legacy systems they are still carrying—and focus on all 5 with an emphasis on RAS/AI and other Emerging Technologies like hypervelocity (cruise missiles on steroids) and directed energy weapons (lasers, microwaves, rail guns using electromagnetic power)

Our going in priority is the above S&T related subjects and their impact on traditional security issues: first the emerging Great Power competition generally and return to the Cold war thinking, Iran, Russia and hybrid warfare in the greater Black Sea, ISIS, the challenges in the Asia-Pacific region due to the growing influence of the PRC (its AI strategy-- https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-artificial-intelligence-strategy-poses-credible-threat-us-tech-leadership;

https://www.newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/blog/chinas-plan-lead-ai-purpose-prospects-and-problems/-- ASW, and the cyber/space challenges.)

See also for the below for the kinds of groundbreaking research and thinking occurring in this multi-disciplinary field:

http://www.news.gatech.edu/2017/04/21/swarms-autonomous-aerial-vehicles-test-new-dogfighting-skillshttp://www.airuniversity.af.mil/CASI/Display/Article/1383013/battlefield-singularity-artificial-intelligence-military-revolution-and-chinas/

https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/battlefield-singularity-artificial-intelligence-military-revolution-and-chinas-future-military-power (full report)

PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the national security and defense policy making processes as well as the contemporary challenges the U.S. faces in the international system. Students should be familiar with the 2018 National Defense Strategy. An undergraduate foundation in IR and American foreign policymaking will be helpful, although this will truly be a course multi-disciplinary at its heart. Some understanding of AI and technology is important—as is a multidisciplinary background –economics, IR, national security, political science, the law, ethics and morality, etc. No one needs a degree in computer science or mathematics t9o handle our material.

COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:

1. the array of RAS/AI issues transforming the business of national and global security and defense—and how they are changing the processes of national security and defense policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues.

2. how Washington works and how it responds to (or resists) change. In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.

3. the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.

You should also be able to apply such knowledge to specific issues as well as synthesize across disciples and analyze and evaluate options.

REQUIRED TEXTS: Read, read read! Watch, watch watch! Think, think, think! National Defense ( I will bring in enough current copies each month), Joint Force Quarterly, Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post (generally). The discussion and examination of most issues will be supported with readings I will supply through hot links to internet available materials. Watch from the menu of public affairs broadcasts. I will provide either links or actual hard copies of a range of materials as the course unfolds, including several of the journals mentioned above.

METHODOLOGY:This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting will be devoted to a formal

lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture--and paramount to the success of the seminar. Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace. This is a discussion based learning environment—not lecture based.

I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is my primary objective.

EVALUATION:Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance I expect.

Developed outline of major paper 15%

Major (15-20 pages) written reportand oral presentation on selected 60%AI/Emerging technologies topic

Class discussions 25%

Final Exam (optional—can raise your evaluation one letter grade)

The paper is about 15-20 pages (3500-5000 words). It can but does not have to be organized as an issue paper with the following suggested formats—background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided). An additional one-half page of talking points are also required. You would write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—this President. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same. I want to use the mid-semester point to give you some formal feedback/feed forward on your writing and proposed research; hence the working outline is due then.

Papers should be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. Papers due at beginning of class on lesson 13.

TOPICS FOR EXAMINATION: All that follows for the remainder of the syllabus is

background. There is no requirement to read it all—except as your interests direct you

The class will be fast moving—and we will adjust topics and reading almost weekly.

General approach—we will look at some theory early. Ideally each student or small group of students will specialize in a particular topic or two—and I will assist in the research and student preparation to focus discussion on the various topics we explore.Begin with this: Humans Need Not Applyhttps://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-ab&ei=chSgWp7uGsyJggeS5arQDw&q=Human%27s+Need+not+apply&oq=Human%27s+Need+not+apply&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i13k1l10.2348.9083.0.16830.22.22.0.0.0.0.105.1284.21j1.22.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.22.1279...0j46j0i131k1j0i67k1j0i131i67k1j0i46i67k1j46i67k1j0i46k1j0i10k1j0i22i30k1.0.Kv-gYylPyAA

I could lecture this all—but that is not my approach to a fun-and productive graduate learning experience. You have important roles, and I will be there to help focus your interests and make our sessions together true seminar experiences. Background readings provided below to somewhat even the playing field within the classroom; source documents, plus insights gleaned from contemporary comments, speeches, press conferences, etc. Each lesson I will offer numerous hotlinks to relevant issues and we will explore these in class

AI/Emerging Technologies specific orientationA. AI/Emerging technologies Approach

Since the first industrial robotic arm painted and spot welded on the manufacturing floor following World War II, RAWS/AI emerging technologies systems use has greatly expanded beyond manufacturing to include the medical, defense, exploration and service industries. . While providing an overview of the many markets where RA/AI systems play a vital role, the course will tailor specific foci to student interests. One way to conceptualize this is shown below in Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 1: Robotics includes Industrial and Interactive applications.

1) Key general question: the industry is growing in strategic importance to US national security specific to the RAS industry. Specific questions:

Is there such a thing as a “RAS/AI system”? What exactly do we mean by “autonomy?” Why is autonomy central to further development of these systems? Are humans ever totally out of the loop in such systems? Should they be? What role does Artificial Intelligence (AI) play in developments in autonomy?

Do unmanned systems lead to higher or lower levels of human capital?

Interactive RoboticsAdaptable

CollaborativeShare space with humans

Industrial RoboticsPrecise and Repeatable

Limited collaboration with humans

RAS/AI/ET Systems

Categories Blurring

What is the level of public acceptance of unmanned systems? Is the US public ready to accept “driverless cars” on the road or unmanned aircraft? What about robotic assistance in the medical field? What laws and regulations need to be put in place to pave the way wider US public acceptance of robots operating in “human spaces?” How does public acceptance vary in different countries?

What ethical and privacy issues impact the RAS/AI? When no human is directly at the controls, who takes responsibility?

What is likely to be the next big breakthrough in commercial robotic systems? Will robotics change our lives? Is a RAS/AI “Apple” or “Microsoft” on the horizon? How would US companies answer this question? How would Korean or Taiwanese companies? Others?

What is the state of the international RAS/AI Industry? Who are the buyers and sellers in both the defense and non-defense sectors? Which nations are the up-and-coming producers? How might their success impact the US industry? National Security? International Security?

How did the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan change the RAS/AI? The wars have caused significant changes on the demand side of RAS/AI defense markets. How have these changes driven change in the structure, conduct and performance of these markets? Strategy and policy? CONOPS? What role does Service culture play in the acceptance of RAS/AI by the Services?

With US defense budgets in decline, what is the impact on the RAS/AI on defense?

How will the growth in unmanned systems impact the structure, conduct and performance of the larger defense establishment? How are today’s major defense companies addressing various RAS/AI systems?

What RAS/AI innovations might impact in-health care and provide a more effective US military?

What are the ethical implications associated with weaponizing autonomous systems? What are the current and future capabilities? What are the ethical implications associated with weaponizing autonomous systems? Does the increased use of RAS make the decision to use force “easier” for US leaders?

2) Major Players. a) Who are the “major players” in the RAS/AI defense establishment? How are you defining

“major players,” i.e., what is the criteria?

Market leaders (i.e., sales, profit, volume, etc.) / innovators Technology leaders / innovators Government regulation, cartels, international agreements?

b) Where are they located? c) What is their relationship to government/industry/etc.? d) What are the major challenges & opportunities which are faced by the U.S. corporations in the

global market? ?Some of the challenges and opportunities include:Work force issues, to include STEM and highly skilled artisan shortages as well as the

potential for automation to replace employment opportunities within RAS/AI. Related are the impacts of the cost of the workforce compared to foreign competitors. Automation provides potential opportunities to “onshore” production back to the USA.

Supply chain issues to include the use of counterfeit or poor quality parts. Related is the impact of intellectual property theft by competitors in the international markets.

Export controls on UAV sales based on categorization as a ballistic missile under current US law. These controls limit the ability of US UAV firms to compete in the international markets.

In the scope of US firms support to DoD, there is the challenge of receiving a proper demand signal from DoD on areas that US RAS firms should be investing to support future programs. In DoD unmanned/remotely piloted markets (all domains), there is a reluctance for firms to continue to spend IRAD funds without a clearer signal from DoD.

USV (Unmanned Surface Vehicles (waterborne surface craft) face challenges in integrating these craft into the current rules of the road for ships as well as gray areas with regard to law of the sea issues for these vessels.

UGV face issues from integrating driverless cars into US and foreign automotive traffic schemes to the use of autonomy on the battlefield.

. The RAS/AI emerging technologies course will explore leading organizations that foster innovation, research and development:

Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Office of Naval Research (ONR); the Air Force Research Lab, and the Army Research Lab Carnegie Mellon University – National Robotics Engineering Center (NREC) SRI (formerly Stanford Research Institute) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory DIUx Selected countries NPS (Naval Postgraduate School)

Robotics/AI/ET markets and industries are dynamic and innovative, but with the exception of some mature industrial robotics markets, remain in a fragmented, nascent, "pre-takeoff" or incubation stage of development. There are virtually no industry standards, and few products have reached a broad customer base with sustained rapid growth. Unique government policy/legal/economic issues associated with RAS/IS/ET. The nascent and fragmented nature of the RAS/AI/ET has three unique implications for this industry study. First,

government policy and programs (in all countries) play a large role in the development of the industry. For this reason, the RAS/AI/ET study must compare US government programs and policies to those of other nations with significant robotics industries. Second, in order to survive and build resilience, businesses are forced to address the broadest possible set of government and commercial customers, especially in light of the waning operations in Afghanistan and current focus on ISIS. For this reason, the defense establishment must examine global commercial and defense robotics markets. Finally, advances in robotics diffuse rapidly, especially in regions where there are clusters of precursor organizations that have ready access to global markets. To assess the role of RAS/AI/ET in US national security, the course must compare the RAS/AI/ETin the United States to that of other nations.

B. RAS/AI/ET Linkage to U.S. National Security. RAS/AI/ET systems are strategically important to US national security for a number of reasons. First, US military use of unmanned systems has exploded since 2001, as have the capabilities inherent in these systems. RAS/AI/ET systems related to US military operations, including surveillance systems, counter-improvised explosive device (IED) systems, and underwater systems now occupy a permanent place in US defense operations and planning. The Eisenhower School has an obligation to study the firms that supply RAS defense-related products to better understand how these firms, and the markets they operate in meet the nation’s security needs, and how they will react to impending budget downturns and increasing competition from overseas. Second, since the RAS/AI/ET industry includes many innovative, interdisciplinary, high technology firms competing in fast-changing markets, it is an excellent leading indicator for US competitiveness and economic strength in science, engineering, manufacturing, and education. Key linkages include

1) swarming technology as well as considerations for how to counter the swarm. (defensive) and launch offensive swarming operations

2) Long range kill cycle issues and applications—what to do when you weapons reach exceeds the reach of some or all of your C4ISR?

Older documents from previous years follow: provided as background only—and a resource guide if you like. These issues evolve quickly—so staying current and understanding how we got to where we are is challenging—as is figuring out the RAS/AI impact

The National Security Policy Process http://www.ndu.edu/icaf/outreach/publications/nspp/docs/icaf-nsc-policy-process-report-08-2011.pdf

Big Data and the NSAChallenges to the Constitution—Security vs. Liberty (the Ben Franklin quote now much

more commonly referenced); this is a serious part of the course—with an examination of the role of social media and EO 12333 and Section 215 of the Patriot Act—and spying on Congress and our allies—see also the exchange between Christie and Paul at the first republican debate in Cleveland 6 Aug 2015. Now the discussion has moved towards the 5G revolution—and its national security implications.

The Changing Nature of Warfare: new Roles and Missions?DOD Directive 3000.5 and Stability OperationsPost Ukraine—fighting a war against criminals, thugs, IO campaigns, and outside supportWhither Novorossiya and its impact on NATO Art V guaranteesRussia and its approach to hybrid warfare—emerging as the No. 1 priorityReconstructionProspects for Reintegration/Reconciliation in Iraq given ISIS and whatever follows al

Maliki, Afghanistan post Karzai and elsewhere; a new kind of soldier; Three Cups of Tea;

See also the new US Army field manual 3-24 (Petraeus’s counterinsurgency strategy implemented in Iraq and being given much of the credit for the success of the surge)—http://www.fas.org/irp/dodder/army/fm3-24.pdf and the debate with CT advocates (Biden) this may be decided on cost grounds.

We will also examine the new National Security and Defense Strategy. This really directs the Services to get serious about asymmetric warfare and will turn the R & D and AT & L processes on their heads.

New AF strategy focuses on necessary personnel changes plus continued movement toward integrating autonomous systems

See Panetta to BENS, Nov 2012 re the new nature of the deployed force—drones, Intel, SOF, HN forces, contractors

Is “Clear, Hold, Build’ outdated? Is there a role in Afghanistan beyond CT? Reconstruction? Economic Development? Governance and Corruption? Reconciliation? A New Silk Road? What is the bottom line mission in Afghanistan?

Do the American people have the patience to see through a decades’ long commitment.

Is there a casualties threshold? Did we cross it with the Chinook shootdown?

How and in what sequence and with what prioritization and with what agencies do we accomplish security, governance and development missions?

The Changing Nature of Warfare: New Operations A Decentralized Battlefield? Network centric operations and network enabled capabilities Information Operations and the Battle of Ideas: Messages, Mediums, and MethodsRole of 24 hours news; embedded reporters; internet; Al Jazeera (and others); individual IPodsSee for example Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Special report, “The War of Images and Ideas,” Daniel Kimmage and Kathleen Rodolfo, DC, RFE/RL, Inc., 2007Arms control

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2014_09/News/White-House-Reviewing-Nuclear-Budgethttp://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2015_05/News/Air-Force-Wants-Thousand-New-Cruise-Missileshttp://warontherocks.com/2013/11/a-new-nuclear-air-launched-cruise-missile/http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/new-nuke-cruise-missile-as-crucial-as-new-bomber-haney/http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USNuclearModernization

Role of UAVs/RPVs/Unmanned systems—a lot here—perhaps the most transformational of any aspect of national security—and really tied to resources challenges—See also role of autonomy, trust, human interface in the kill chain—much of this intersects wit he law of armed conflict

Have we armed and trained the ISIS into the successful fighting force we have seen as of 8/14??

.

China—And AsiaWhat should the new relationship be in the era of the pivot? U.S. hegemony replaced

by leadership and cooperation? See what Kissinger has to say Recent PRC claims regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea and annual DOD

submission to Congress re PRC military modernization, August 2010 PRC sends carrier to sea for test voyage—Summer 2011Role of Ballistic Missile Defense in defending from DPRK threats—SM III and Aegis as game changersRise of Japan-Taiwan-Australia alliance? The first and second Island ring strategy? Recent US/ROK military exercises

How does Air Sea Battle work at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels? See Keagle in Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 70, 3rd Quarter 2013

What about A2/AD?See these specifically from the last several monthshttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacifichttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/17/stake-us-weighs-south-china-sea-patrol/74147190/

East China Sea Scenario“How uninhabited islands soured China-Japan ties,” BBC News, November 10, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11341139

Joyman Lee, “Senkaku/Diaoyu: Islands of Conflict,” History Today, Volume 61, Issue 5, May 2011, http://www.historytoday.com/joyman-lee/senkakudiaoyu-islands-conflict

Gavan McCormack, “Small Islands—Big Problem: Senkaku/Diaoyu and the Weight of History and Geography in China-Japan Relations,” The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Gavan-McCormack/3464/article.pdf

Justin McCurry and Tania Branigan, “Obama says US will defend Japan in island dispute with China,” The Guardian, April 24, 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/24/obama-in-japan-backs-status-quo-in-island-dispute-with-china

James J. Przystup, “Japan-China Relations: Going Nowhere Slowly,” Comparative Connections, September 2013. http://csis.org/files/publication/1302qjapan_china.pdf

Henry R. Nau, Richard J. Samuels, and Timothy J. Westmyer, “Japan as a Global Power: Contending Views from Japan,” August 2013. http://www.risingpowersinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/CarnegieJapan2013_PolicyReport_Final2.pdf

IISS, “Beyond Abenomics: Japan’s Grand Strategy,” Strategic Comments, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13567888.2013.830419

South China Sea Scenario—Security-Economic Strategy ExerciseDOD’s Annual Report of the Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015 May 8, 2015http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2015_China_Military_Power_Report.pdfpp.1-27 plus other sections as may be assigned by your instructor

“China’s Military Strategy,” The State Council Information Office, People’s Republic of China; Beijing, May 2015http://eng.mod.gov.cn/Database/WhitePapers/

“White Paper Outlines China’s Ambitions,” Wendell Minnick, May 27, 2015 http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/05/26/china-us-pentagon-taiwan-report-south-east-sea-islands-reefs-s400-su35-missiles-satellite-space-deterrence/27957131/

China’s New Silk Road Initiative Will Boost the Global Economy,” Philipp Mibfelder, April 20, 2015

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philipp-missfelder/china-new-silk-road-global-economy_b_7101668.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-china-sea-statement-1445986915?mod=rss_opinion_mainhttp://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/28/asia/china-south-china-sea-disputes-explainer/index.html?eref=editionhttp://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-summons-us-ambassador-subi-reef-islands-south-china-sea/

China’s Influence Grows with New Infrastructure Bank,” William Ide, June 29, 2015

http://www.voanews.com/content/china-influence-grows-with-new-infrastructure-bank/2841441.html

Resetting Relations with RussiaGeorgia and Ukraine—energy issues front and center? Or is it about sovereignty?The New START, verification and nuclear force modernization Post-Snowden—what comes after the pause?Novorossiya—what does it mean?ASW—could breakthroughs threaten our strategic triad?Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Hybrid warfare Tests Pentagon,” The Washington Post, July 4, 2014, p. A14

http://www.stripes.com/news/us/hybrid-warfare-tests-pentagon-1.356378

David Lynch, NATO maneuvers to Keep Cool war with Russia from Becoming Hot,” Bloomberg News, June 25, 2015http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/nato-maneuvers-to-keep-cool-war-with-russia-from-becoming-hot-1.354178

John Vandiver“Cart3er: NATO Must Gird for Cyber Battlefield,” Stars and Stripes, June 25, 2015http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/carter-nato-must-gird-for-cyber-battlefield-1.354386

Adrian Croft, “Tensions with Russia Could Prompt NATO Strategy Rethink,” Reuters, July 6, 2015http://news.yahoo.com/tensions-russia-could-prompt-nato-strategy-rethink-125230389.html;_ylt=A0LEVu4Mq55VBDwAcvQnnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbWFxdmg3BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZHRTAyXzEEc2VjA3http://news.yahoo.com/key-dates-syria-russia-relations-since-uprising-143913328.html

Alla Rosca, “Power Distribution on the World Stage: The Impact of the Crimean Crisis,” Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, Vol. 1, no. 2 2014http://ieeca.org/journal/index.php/JEECAR/article/view/66

Transforming NATO New defense and political roles/Support for Afghanistan? And other out of area operations/Whither Europe, the Euro-zone and the EU post Ukraine? Are sanctions enough?What does effective deterrence mean in this context?

The Changing Nature of Warfare: a new Military Medicine Battlespace and the new Costs of Warfare: IEDS, PTSD and Traumatic Brain Injuries; C-17s as flying ICUs; modern day bleed-out challenges; cost of military health care (disabled, dependents, retirees); new proposals on military retirement to be replaced with a 401K-like system

See Dole –Shalala Report, “Serve, Support, and Simplify,” July 2007See DD report of mental health--http://www.taps.org/%5Cdownload%5CDOD%20Mental%20Health%20Task%20Force%20Report.pdf

Also, the pure economic costs of health care

Resistance to Change: New capabilities vs. legacy systemsUAVs—Predator WASPS, nano systemsSpace—ASATs, BMD, and the Aegis we will explore Chinese thinking here—

Google “Studies 9 and 32”; 2011 released Space strategy

Non lethal weapons: Directed Energy Weapons (active denial systems):

Cyber Power and Security )2011 released cyber strategy—cooperation with private sector—sniping and offensive cyber strategic elements

vs.F-22s, JSFs, JDAMs and PGMs, Carrier Battle Groups, Abrams/M-1

tanksF-35

Smart Defense—what does it mean?

Reorganizing DOD: AFRICOM—a truly interagency command? Consolidation of the COCOMs????? The largest AFRICOM base is in Djibouti? Why?

AFGHAN All-Hands—the next generation of interagency reform

The End of JFCOM? What was really cut?DoD budget cuts—effect on outsourcing (contractors) and the political process—

the costs of the wars—how much can we shrink the force?Furloughs and Involuntary Reductions in Force (RIFs)????The fiscal/budget realities--cost of the retirement system and health care—future

of TRICARE for lifeMoney money, money—cutting major weapon systems and revamping

personnel, health and retirement systems—but how about taking care of the vets—and PTSD, TBI and Gulf War Syndrome—money, money, money

ARMY Issueshttp://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/show-daily/ausa/2015/10/15/new-army-strategy-sees-future-combat-vehicles-as-highly-mobile-highly-lethal/73651700/

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/01/the-measure-of-superpower-a-two-major-regional-contingency-military-for-21-centuryhttp://www.opednews.com/populum/page.php?f=Boyle-New-Pentagon-War-Ma-by-Sherwood-Ross-Atrocities_Israel_Media_Nazism-150813-273.htmlhttp://breakingdefense.com/2015/02/obamas-strategic-patience-folly-or-the-future/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCS1R9szCBk

AIR FORCE Issueshttp://www.gao.gov/products/142346http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/strike/2015/08/17/new-acc-strategy-underlines-need--10-replacement/31861823/

http://news.usni.org/2013/11/13/air-force-future-uav-roadmap-released-early-next-weekhttp://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/04/6-facts-about-future-air-force/109612/http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/04/22/welsh-future-aircraft-pilots-needed/26178677/http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2015_05/News/Air-Force-Wants-Thousand-New-Cruise-Missiles

NAVY Issueshttp://science.dodlive.mil/2014/03/06/lasers-rail-guns-and-the-future-of-the-u-s-navy/http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/cvn-21/http://www.defenseone.com/management/2014/11/what-us-navy-future-looks/99206/ http://www.military.com/equipment/ddg-1000-elmo-zumwalt-class-destroyer

Energy Challenges Supply/demand/transportation/production/refineries

This whole issue area is changing so quickly—with the hydro-fracking /shale/natural gas revolution driving the train. Iran oil and natural gas coming on line after sanctions relief ass another 2mbd to the supply side of the equation—and prices will dropClimate change forum in December will provide additional focus

See work of Richard Andrus—key is JP-4 and the cost of keeping the USAF flying See LMI Report FT602T1/April 2007, Transforming the Way DOD Looks at Energy,

Security Considerations for a Warming Arctic: Unfrozen Treasures and an Ice Breaker Gap?

Role of the Coast Guard, global warming and possible energy resources in the Arctic. See for example CRS Report RL 34391, “Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background, Issues, and Options for the Congress,” by Ronald O’Rourke, February 26, 2008.

What is Russia up to in the Arctic? Does it create an operational gap? The Big Five?—Canada, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Nigeria Russia and its supply richesGrowing demand from China and India

Energy Security-- Fossil Fuel international dependence? LNG and or hydro-fracturing as game changers?????

Reorganizing for National Security:Information and Intelligence Sharing Across International, Interagency, Federal, State, and Public Sector Boundaries; Need to Know vs. Need to Share; A new Goldwater-

Nichols Act or National Security Act (1947) rewritten for 2009; Jointness replaced by interagencyness and coalitionness (Jim Locher)Top Secret America—Wash Post Series July 2010New relationships among State, Defense and the IC (see Michael Flynn)How to we do coalition ops in the future—sharing information is key—but we come from a Five Eyes culture.

Authorizing and Funding for National SecurityObama approach for Afghanistan—as differentiated from Bush and IraqExecutive-Congressional Relations

War Powers Act—undoing authorizations for the use of military force post 9/11; see Obama speech at NDU 2013Congressional ResolutionsAuthorizations and Appropriations ProcessSupplementalsCovert Budgets and the Need for Intelligence

The militarization of foreign policy—see Section 1206 and 1207 issues. Title 10 versus Title 50 authrorities00and Title 18 and 22 as well

Obviously, the country will continue to debate whether or not the “war” in Afghanistan continues beyond 205. This is both a $$ issue and an international support issue. Can we stay long enough to effect political reintegration, reconciliation, and development? How important were the 2014 elections? Will this be a campaign issue in US for 2016?

ISISGates on Meet the Press re ISIS strategyhttp://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-gates-20151129-story.htmlhttp://www.npr.org/2015/09/17/441063233/aipac-walks-bipartisan-line-while-israeli-politics-moves-sharply-right

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/09/16/440969194/sources-detail-skewed-reports-on-how-the-u-s-is-doing-against-isis

SPACE (and bio)

http://spacenews.com/russian-satellite-maneuvers-silence-worry-intelsat/http://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/JointForceQuarterly78.aspxhttp://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/JointForceQuarterly77.aspxhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdfhttp://www.space.com/8676-white-house-unveils-national-space-policy.htmlhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/industry-sponsored-report-claims-us-210500621.html;_ylt=A0LEVv3.sThWxCoAUQcnnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEzYWVpb245BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZSQTE1XzEEc2VjA3Njhttp://www.nti.org/threats/biological/

Arms Control (more)http://warontherocks.com/2013/11/a-new-nuclear-air-launched-cruise-missile/

http://breakingdefense.com/2014/09/new-nuke-cruise-missile-as-crucial-as-new-bomber-haney/http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USNuclearModernization

The Changing Laws of WarGeneva Convention, GITMO and Abu GraibWhere is the line? Torture and other Information acquiring techniquesRenditionsIllegal Combatants, Habeas Corpus and the prisoners’ rightsUnreasonable Search and seizure: Patriot Act, FISA, warrantless searches, electronic

eavesdropping/intercept, the 4th AmendmentsTreaty versus executive order (sanctions with Iran/nuclear enrichment deal)

As you know Obama has changed course from his campaign rhetoric to his positions as president. That will be fruitful for our discussions as well as historical material.

What about Libya—and Syria—and the IEDs and refuges throughout Jordan. Turkey, Lebanon and Syria?

The Role of the PeopleCivil society is a key to this course—in the US and other partners and allies and

adversariesPublic Support and Unpopular WarsDraft vs. All-Volunteer Force--this is a very serious issue Total Force: Role of the Guard

and Reserves--Note the promotion of the Chief of the National Guard Bureau to 4-star rank (but still not a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Tour lengths, dwell time, and individual family health—will we really go to 9 month deployments followed by 3 years home?The VA and Society’s Responsibility for the Disabled Vet—and the cost

See selected background readings Background Readings.

Remarks by President Barack Obama to the Australian Parliament, 17 Nov 2011, [Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/ 1 7 /remarks- president-obama australian-parliament]

Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century," Foreign Policy, November 2011, [Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas pacific centuryl

U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership, Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 2012 [Available via BlackBoard or at

www.defense.gov/news/Defense Strategic Guidance]

Briefing on Defense Strategic Guidance, 5 January 2012, [Available at http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4953]

Remarks from Defense Strategic Guidance Media Roundtable, January 5, 2012, [Available at http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4954]

Speech by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta on Major Budget Decisions, January 26, 2012, [Available at http:ljwww.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1647J

Supplemental Readings. The supplemental readings listed in this syllabus are NOT meant to be prescriptive; rather, their intent is to provide a range of issues or context for students to consider as they develop their strategy. Similarly, this is not a full list of available information. There is an expectation that students will have to conduct research outside of these documents to develop and support their strategy.

Thinking about the Near Future

Martin lndyk, Tanvi Madan, and Thomas Wright eds., Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama's Second Term, January 2013, (Foreign Policy Project at Brookings, Washington, D.C.). [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/big-bets-black-swans]

The National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, November 2008 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).

National Global 2030: Alternative Worlds, December 2012 (Washington, D.C: Government Printing Office).

Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community: Statement for the Record Before the 5. Select Comm. on Intelligence, Mar, 12, 2013, 116th Cong., (2013) (Statement of James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence).

Some Thoughts on US Strategy

Daniel Deudney and John Ikenberry, Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy for a Post-exceptionalist World, November 2012, (Working Paper, Council on Foreign Relations International Institutions and Global Governance Project, Washington, D.C.).

Patrick C. Doherty, "A New U.S. Grand Strategy," Foreign Policy, January 9, 2013. [Available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/a new US grand strategy]

Robert A. Manning, Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World, December 10, 2012, (Washington, D.C.: Atlantic Council, 2012).

Barry R. Posen, "Pull Back: The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1 (Jan/Feb 2013): 116-128.

U.S. Economic Posture for the Future

Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale, Fiscal Fatigue: Tracking the Budget Outlook as Political Leaders Lurch from One Artificial Crisis to Another, February 28, 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institute, 2013). [Available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/28-fiscal-fatigue-budget-outlook-gale]

Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2023,February 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office).

Strategic Choices for US Military Futures

David Barno, Nora Behsahel and Travis Sharpe, Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity, Responsible Defense Series, October 2011, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American Security, 2011).

Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman's Strategic Direction to the Joint Force, the Joint Staff, February 6, 2012. [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2012/02/strategic-direction-to-the-joint-force/]

John Deutch et. all, Letter to the Honorable Chuck Hagel, Secretary of Defense, March 5, 2013.

Michele Flournoy and Janine Davidson, "Obama's New Global Posture," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 4 (Jul/Aug 2012): 54-63.

The Asia-Pacific Pivot

Shawn Brimley and Ely Ratner, "Smart Shift: A Response to 'The Problem with the Pivot',"

Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013): 177-181.

Aaron L. Friedberg, "Bucking Beijing: An Alternative U.S. China Policy," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 48-58.

T.X. Hammes, "Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 278 (June 2012). [Available via Blackboard or at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF%20278%20Hammes.pdf]

Justin Logan, "China, America, and the Pivot to Asia," CATO Institute, Policy Analysis No. 717,

January 8, 2013. [Available via BlackBoard or at http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/china-america-pivot-asia]

Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, "How China Sees America: The Sum of Beijing's Fears,"

Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2012), 32-47.

Vikram Nehru, The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters, March 13, 2013, (Washington, D.C.: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013). [Available at http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/13/rebalance-to-asia-why-south-asia-matters/fq97#]

Robert Ross, "The Problem with the Pivot," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 6 (Nov/Dec 2012): 70-82.

Phillip C. Saunders, "Managing Strategic Competition with China," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 242, July 2009. [Available via BlackBoard or at www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/SF242China Saunders.pdf]

The Greater Middle East and South Asia

Richard L. Armitage, R. Nicholas Burns, and Richard Fontaine, Natural Allies: A Blueprint for Future U.5.-lndia Relations, October 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Center for New American Security, 2010).

Sheri Berman, "The Promise of the Arab Spring." Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013), 64-74.

Amitai Etzioni, "Shifting Sands," The Journal of International Security Affairs, no. 20(Spring/Summer 2011), 87-97.

Seth G. Jones, "The Mirage of the Arab Spring" Foreign Affairs, 92 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2013),

55-63. Colin H. Kahl, "Not Time to Attack Iran - a Response to: 'Time to Attack Iran',"

Foreign Affairs,

91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012), 166-173.

Matthew Kroenig, "Time to Attack Iran," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 1(Jan/Feb 2012), 76-86.

Raja Mohan, Return of

American Interest, 5 no. 5 (May/Jun 2010),

[Available via Black Boa rd or at !.!J:..\J!..:.1.L:!:!.'..!'!J! !.!s.: .!.£1..!..!:::£!.l:.!.! CLS J.l.£! :::.!E: .!.!.lJl:l!E :'..:::!.J

George Perkovich, Toward Realistic U.S - India Relations, 2010, (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010).

Reading Assignments from 2018 follow On Tue, Nov 6, 2018 at 1:16 PM Keagle, James <Keaglej@ndu.edu <mailto:Keaglej@ndu.edu> > wrote:

https://www.technology.org/2018/10/30/the-first-genome-surgeons-scientists-are-preparing-to-bring-dna-editing-tools-to-the-clinic/

Jim

-----Original Message-----From: Keagle, James Sent: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 1:10 PM

Subject: RE: last night--CRISPR

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/13/control-of-crispr-biotechs-most-promising-breakthrough-is-up-for-grabs/?utm_term=.43287f98459e

Jim

-----Original Message-----From: Keagle, James Sent: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 1:08 PM

Subject: RE: last night--CRISPR

https://www.wired.com/2015/07/crispr-dna-editing-2/

Jim

-----Original Message-----From: Keagle, James Sent: Monday, November 5, 2018 12:02 PM

Subject: RE: next week--the future

Some more on AI--McKinsey report and the CSIS AI report roll out this morning https://www.csis.org/events/artificial-intelligence-and-national-security-importance-ai-ecosystem

may just need the 4 minute video for the key findings--also the report can be downloaded from the link Jim

-----Original Message-----From: Keagle, JamesSent: Tuesday, October 30, 2018 8:08 AM

Subject: RE: next week--the future

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340215611087 2 years old

http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/emerging-technology-impacts/ several good readings within

http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/emerging-technology-impacts/ focus on Chinese advances

https://statescoop.com/emerging-tech-q-a-2018 what life might be like--sooner then we might think

jim

NA TO and Europe

Richard Hass, "Continental Drift," The Washington Post, June 19, 2011: Bl.

Francis G. Hoffman, Alternative American Grand Strategies: Implications for NATO and EUCOM, Institute for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the Atlantic Council - National Defense University project on the future of US European Command, (July 19, 2012).

Leo Michel, NATO, the European Union, and the United States: Why not a virtuous menage a trois?" Institute for National Security Studies, Monograph in support of the joint AtlanticCouncil - National Defense University Future of US European Command project, (July 19, 2012).

Russia and its Neighbors

Ariel Cohen, "U.S. Policy on Russia for Obama's Second Term," The Heritage Foundation, Issue Brief No. 3854, February 20, 2013.

Agnia Grigas, "Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power: Russian Influence in the Baltic States," Chatham House, Briefing Paper 2012/04, August 2012.

Andrew C. Kuchins and Igor A. Zevelev, "Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity in Change," The Washington Quarterly, 35 no. 1, (Winter 2012), 147-161.

Jim Nichol, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments and Implications for U.S.lnterests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), January 24, 2013.

Jim Nichol, Central Asia's Security: Issues and Implications for U.S. Interests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), March 11, 2010.

Jim Nichol, Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests, Congressional Research Service (CRS), June 13, 2011.

Sergey Markedonov, "What Washington Wants in the Caucasus," The National Interest, June 12, 2012. [Available at http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-washington-wants-the caucasus- 7038]

John W. Parker and Michael Kofman, "Russia Still Matters: Strategic Challenged and Opportunities for the Obama Administration," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 280, (March 2013).

Dmitri Vision a

report presented at Chicago Council on Global Defense and the Future of NATO, Chicago, IL, (28-30 May, 2012).

Africa

Andre Le Sage, "Africa's Irregular Security Threats: Challenges for U.S. Engagement," Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic Forum No. 255, (May 2010).

Princeton N. Lyman and Kathryn A. Robinette. "Obama and Africa: Matching Expectations with Reality." Journal of International Affairs, 62, no. 2 (2009): 1-XI.

Lauren Ploch, Africa Command: U.S Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S Military in Africa,Congressional Research Service (CRS), April 3, 2010.

Latin America and the Western Hemisphere

John A. Cope and Frank 0. Mora, "Hemispheric Security: A New Approach," Current History, 108no. 715 (Feb 2009): 65-71.

R. Evan Ellis, "The United States, Latin America and China: A 'Triangular Relationship'," Inter American Dialogue, Working Paper, (May 2012).

Christopher Sabatani, "Rethinking Latin America," Foreign Affairs, 91 no. 2 (Mar/Apr 2012): 8-

13.

Energy Security

ExxonMobile, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, [Available at www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news pub eo.pdf]

Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator, International Energy Outlook 2011, Outlook, September 2011, U.S. Energy Information Administration https://www.unodc.org/documents/middleeastandnorthafrica/organised-crime/UNITED_NATIONS_CONVENTION_AGAINST_TRANSNATIONAL_ORGANIZED_CRIME_AND_THE_PROTOCOLS_THERETO.pdf  12+  years ago

http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_10/20161025_1610-cybersecurity-curriculum.pdfwhat NATO uses

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-approves-cybersecurity-law-1478491064

Try these to get started—multi-faceted, multi-dimensional and global in reach

Follow the money??????

https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threathttp://www.cfr.org/transnational-crime/global-regime-transnational-crime/p28656http://search.myway.com/search/video.jhtml?n=782af791&p2=%5ECFS%5Exdm115%5ETTAB02%5Eus&pg=video&pn=1&ptb=D9D2D7C2-E07C-4B3C-AD80-ACDBB0136E78&qs=&searchfor=transnational+crime&si=&ss=sub&st=tab&tpr=sbt&trs=wtthttp://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/kinahan-drug-gang-set-up-more-than-200-companies-1.2848869https://uk.usembassy.gov/ukpapress153/https://www.oas.org/dsp/documentos/Crimen/Globalization_Crime_UNODC.pdf

http://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech-View/Article/990315/remarks-on-the-path-to-an-innovative-future-for-defense-csis-third-offset-strat