Semiconductor Industry Trends and Wh t Th M t CMPWhat They ...
Transcript of Semiconductor Industry Trends and Wh t Th M t CMPWhat They ...
Semiconductor Industry Trends andWh t Th M t CMPWhat They Mean to CMP
NCCAVS CMP User’s Group – July 17, 2007NCCAVS CMP User s Group July 17, 2007Robert L. Rhoades, Ph.D. (Entrepix, Inc.)Karey Holland, Ph.D. (Techcet Group, LLC)
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information
Semiconductor Materials Information
Overview
Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP
Market Drivers and Transitions
Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”
Trend #2 – The New Mainstream
Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g
What Does All This Mean for CMP?
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Market Driver – The Consumer
Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium – Hans Stork, CTO, Texas Instruments
• Transition: 51% of semiconductor devices produced in 2005 were for consumer products.for consumer products.
• Effects of a consumer driven market –“Consumers DemandConsumers Demand More for Less” and ‘More in Less’.
• Historically enabled byHistorically enabled by innovations following Moore’s Law.
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information3
A Consumer-Driven Transition
Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium –Steve Newberry, CEO, Lam Research Corporation • Consumers are paying less AND getting more,
even though ASPs have flattened.• Companies that have adapted still continue• Companies that have adapted still continue
posting better financial returns.Conclusion:• Appropriate mfg - 300mm (digital), 200/150mm
(analog) & extending the useful life of fabs and(analog) & extending the useful life of fabs and process platforms
C % i• Consumers % increases.• Unit volumes increasing while ASPs flat.Conclusion:• Price / cost reduction is critical.
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• Speed – short life cycles; fast market response.Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium –Bill McClean, President, IC Insights
Technology Nodes
• Historical progression for >20 years0.5 um 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.15 90 nm 65 nm etc.
• Devices, equipment platforms, even entire fabs were , q p p ,identified by their “target node”
• Industry language referenced the expectations• Industry language referenced the expectations Leading edge – mainstream – trailing edgeEarly adopters – fast followers – late stageEtEtc.
Changes now well underway may provide alternative ways of looking at the industry.
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alternative ways of looking at the industry.
Industry GroupingsParticularly from a CMP perspective
• Group I – The most advanced, leading edge devices
y p p
– Wafer sizes: 300mm & possibly 450mm (future)– Technology nodes: 65nm, 45nm and below– Materials: high k, metal gates, ULK, Cu barriers, etc.
• Group II – Improvements to mainstream ICs– Wafer sizes: 200mm & 150mm– Technology nodes: 90nm to 350nm and above
Materials: oxides tungsten etcPhoto displayed with permission of– Materials: oxides, tungsten, etc.
• Group III – Emerging technologies & new applications– Wafer sizes: 200mm, 150mm, 100mm and smaller
with permission of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc.
– Technology nodes: various– Materials: wide range of metals, oxides, polymers, and more– MEMS, nanotechnology, SiC, GaN, optics, etc.
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information6
Overview
Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP
Market Drivers and Transitions
Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”
Trend #2 – The New Mainstream
Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g
What Does All This Mean for CMP?
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information7
Segment Characteristics
Financial Factors and Trends Across 3 Industry Segments
EmergingNew MainstreamSpeedster
Level Direction Level Direction Level Direction
Average Annual Capital High
Technology R&D High
Financial Factor
Technology R&D High
Manufacturing Cost/chip High
Volume High -
Average Selling Price (ASP) HighAverage Selling Price (ASP) High
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Moore’s Law
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Moore's Law Illustrated by selected Intel® microprocessor benchmarks
Itanium
Itanium 2Microprocessor transistors per chip h i d b
1 000 000
10,000,000
r chi
p (a
ppro
x.)
Pentium
Pentium III
486 Pentium II
have increased by over 5 orders of magnitude in 35 years.
Current generation
100,000
1,000,000Tr
ansi
stor
s pe
r
286
8086
386
Current generation chips have more than 1.7 billion transistors
Photo and CMP are 2 iti l
1,000
10,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
4004
8080
critical processes required to stay on trend line:
• Photo SHRINKSPhoto SHRINKS
• CMP STACKS Moore’s Law has not been derailed by industry cycles, technology hurdles, or the economy ... but it does not really apply to every semiconductor company only the
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information9
semiconductor company … only the “Speedsters”!
Speedster Summary
• Typical companies: microprocessor and yp p pmemory makers, large-scale foundries
• Willing to spend capital on new fab i ( l 300 )construction (mostly 300 mm)
• Willing to adapt new materials or processes as needed to achieve performanceas needed to achieve performance
• Designs AND process technology both change at a rapid pacec a ge at a ap d pace
• Design focus = performance• Process focus = speed or acceptable yield
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p p y
Overview
Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP
Market Drivers and Transitions
Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”
Trend #2 – The New Mainstream
Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g
What Does All This Mean for CMP?
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information11
Segment Characteristics
Financial Factors and Trends Across 3 Industry Segments
Speedster New Mainstream Emerging
Level Direction Level Direction Level Direction
Average Annual Capital High Moderate
Technology R&D High Moderate
Financial Factor
Technology R&D High Moderate
Manufacturing Cost/chip High Moderate
Volume High - High
Average Selling Price (ASP) High LowAverage Selling Price (ASP) High Low -
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Manufacturing Complexity
VOLUME TECHNOLOGY COST
+ + +1995 2001 2007
Glass (oxide) Glass (oxide) Glass (oxide)Tungsten Tungsten Tungsten
Copper CopperShallow Trench Shallow Trench
Polysilicon PolysiliconLow k
Cap Ultra Low kMetal Gates
Gate InsulatorsHi h k Di l t i
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Sources: Cabot Microelectronics Corp. & Entrepix, Inc. High k DielectricsIr & Pt Electrodes
Magnetics
New Mainstream Summary
• Wide range of products including digital, analog, g p g g , g,mixed signal, power, etc.
• Adapting to a world of flat or falling ASP’s• Cost factors and yield becoming MUCH more
important than technology factors• Some devices enjoy long lifecycles (but not all)• Some devices enjoy long lifecycles (but not all)• Designs may change rapidly, but process technology
intentionally being held much more stable• Design focus = features and simplicity• Process focus = cost and maximizing yield
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information14
Overview
Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP
Market Drivers and Transitions
Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”
Trend #2 – The New Mainstream
Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g
What Does All This Mean for CMP?
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information15
Segment Characteristics
Financial Factors and Trends Across 3 Industry Segments
Speedster New Mainstream Emerging
Level Direction Level Direction Level Direction
Average Annual Capital High Moderate Low -
Technology R&D High Moderate High
Financial Factor
Technology R&D High Moderate High
Manufacturing Cost/chip High Moderate High
Volume High - High Low
Average Selling Price (ASP) High Low HighAverage Selling Price (ASP) High Low - High
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Growth in Applications
CMP is still evolving for CMOS applications ... And many newer applications are now also being developed pp g pbeyond “traditional” CMP.
• Integrated Optics• MEMS- Grating structures- Embedded waveguides- Integrated optical elements
- Oxides (doped or undoped)- Polysilicon (usually structural)- Nitrides and oxynitrides- Separation layer (MEMS-first or MEMS-last)
Metals (esp for reflective surfaces)• Other
- Phase change memory materials- Photoresist and other polymers- Magnetic materials (active or shielding)
- Metals (esp. for reflective surfaces)
• Advanced Substrates- Strained layer epi substrates- Custom III-IV and II-IV epi layers g ( g)
- Advanced packaging- 3D IC’s and similar device technologies
p y- SOI- GaN, GaP, SiC, etc.- Various surfaces for direct wafer bonding
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Example: MEMS
Typical Devices:Accelerometers
Typical MaterialsUndoped oxides (TEOS, silane, etc.)Accelerometers
Torque sensors
Optical devices
Microfluidic processors
Undoped oxides (TEOS, silane, etc.)
Doped oxides (PSG, BPSG, etc.)
Polysilicon
Some metals (specialized apps)Microfluidic processors
Key Aspects of the Application
Some metals (specialized apps)
Materials and core processes generally adapted from CMOS fabrication
CMP is an enabling technology for many designs
Thicknesses and step heights substantially larger than typical of CMOS
Lengthy polish times challenge process stability & consumables lifetime
Ph t d l d d f b it i l di S di N ti l L b
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Photos downloaded from web sites, including Sandia National Lab
Emerging Segment Summary
• Many products not even based on traditional CMOSy p• Often adapting silicon CMOS process techniques• Startup or new entry mentality• Frequently start on smaller wafer sizes and transition
up as volume production increasesProcess technology is generally not mature due to• Process technology is generally not mature due to some fraction of “creative” steps
• Design focus = new devicesg• Process focus = achieving acceptable yield and ramp
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Overview
Semiconductor Industry Trends and What They Mean to CMP
Market Drivers and Transitions
Trend #1 – Continuing “Speedsters”
Trend #2 – The New Mainstream
Trend #3 – Emerging Devicesg g
What Does All This Mean for CMP?
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information20
The Challenge for CMP
Source: 2007 Industry Strategy Symposium – Steve Newberry, CEO, Lam Research Corporation
CMP LIFECYCLECMP LIFECYCLE
CChallenging Realities:• Continued consolidation and collaboration• Reduce cost and mitigate risk• Accelerate time to revenue
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• Accelerate time to revenue• Maximize responsiveness & ultimately financial return
Forecast CMP Wafer Passes
80
60
70
lions
).
CuWOx SilicaSTI C i
40
50
asse
s (M
ill STI Ceria
20
30
Waf
er P
a
0
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Growth of Cu in Memory and Logic
100%
80%
Star
ts
40%
60%
Cu
Waf
er S
0%
20%
%
0%
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Semiconductor Process Materials Growth History ($millions / year)
Not surprisingly, materials targeted for CMP and photolithography (masks + PR) have highest growth rates
$12,000
Wet ChemicalsTargetsSiC*
photolithography (masks PR) have highest growth rates
$8,000
$10,000
$ ,SiC*QuartzAncillaries*Photoresist*
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000 MasksGraphiteGasesCMP*
$0
$ ,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cu Plating*Interconnect*High k*
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2007 CMP Pad Market Share
P d M k t Sh E t 2006 $600Pad Market Share Est. 2006
Thomas WestI
PPGOthers
$600
$M)
JSRInc. $400
even
ues
($Rohm and Haas
Electronic Materials
$200
Pad
Re
$02004 2005 2006 2007
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Oxide CMP Abrasives
25%140V
20%
25%
100
140
$M)
Volumes S
10%
15%
60
100
even
ues
( Shipped (%
Colloidal Revenues
Fumed Revenues
10%
Re %
)
Volume % ColloidalFumed Revenues
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
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Post CMP Clean Chemicals
4500 90%
3500
4000
70%
80%
Perc
2000
2500
3000
KLi
ters
40%
50%
60%
cent Chan
1000
1500
2000K
20%
30%
40%
nge Yr/Y
r
0
500
0%
10%
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Decision Drivers
How is any of this information useful?How is any of this information useful?
Management decisions are influenced by certain perspectives and trends depending on business modelperspectives and trends depending on business model
and market segment.
EQUIPMENT Willing to buy for new fabs or to retool existing fabsDrive improvements in both capability and productivity
Speedsters
CONSUMABLES Push performance in nearly every aspect of CMPDefectivity is becoming an increasing focus
MATERIALS Adapt existing materials whenever feasible, but …Will not hesitate to integrate new materials when necessary
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Decision Drivers
Preserve capital and extend depreciated tools whenever possible
New Mainstream
EQUIPMENTPreserve capital and extend depreciated tools whenever possibleBuy tools only for "must have" capacity expansionsGenerally staying focused on 200mm and below
CONSUMABLES Extreme focus on reducing cost per waferDefectivity and other factors to improve yield are also key
MATERIALS Adapt proven materials and process methods … period.Optimize process flows for simplicity and yield
EQUIPMENTPreserve capital and minimize overheadOutsourcing is a strong trend (fabless)Generally start at small wafer sizes and work up to 200mm
Emerging Technology
CONSUMABLES Not locked in to "traditional" CMP pad/slurry offeringsLots of small-volume niche opportunities
MATERIALS Willing to explore a wide range of materials for unique propertiesProcess requirements vary by several orders of magnitude
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Th kThank you…
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What is CMP…
CMP = Chemical Mechanical Polishing (Planarization)• Developed by IBM in late 1980’s. Licensed to and quickly
No CMP – Traditional Device
p y q yadopted by both Intel and Micron in the early 1990’s
• Key manufacturing process required to planarize and smooth critical surfaces during manufacturing which improves device performance and yield
(a) Side View (b) Top View(a) Side View (b) Top View
Carrier (head) Pad ConditionerSlurry Feed
4 Basic CMP Steps – Newer Device
Platen
Carrier (head)
Polishing Pad
Wafer W Via
ILD
Industry Trends and CMP - July 2007Semiconductor Materials InformationSemiconductor Materials Information31Pictures courtesy of Medtronic, Inc.
Slurry Feed PMD
W Plug
2006 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)
MPU and ASIC Interconnect Technology Requirements—Near-term YearsMPU and ASIC Interconnect Technology Requirements Near term Years
Year of Production 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DRAM ½ Pit h ( )DRAM ½ Pitch (nm) (contacted) 80 70 65 57 50 45 40 36 32
MPU/ASIC Metal 1 ½ Pitch (nm)(contacted) 90 78 68 59 52 45 40 36 32
MPU Physical Gate Length (nm) 32 28 25 22 20 18 16 14 13
Number of DRAM metal levels 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Number of MPU metal levels + optional 11 +4 11 + 4 11 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 12 + 4 13 + 4
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