Selling and Teaching Foresight Development Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators World Future...

Selling and TeachingForesight Development Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators

World Future SocietyJuly 2008 Washington, DC

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies FoundationSlides: accelerating.org/slides.html

What is Accelerating Change?An Interesting and Unexplained Phenomenon

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2007 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in:1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society

(STBS), at

2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.

Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University




Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and

trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we

may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.




Acceleration Studies:Something Curious Is Going On

An unexplained physical phenomenon.

(Don’t look for this in your current

physics or information theory texts…)

A ‘Developmental Spiral’




The Developmental Spiral

Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060

What is Foresight Development?Slightly New Packaging of an Old Friend



Foresight Development

Foresight Development is:Futures Studies Education plus Personal Foresight Skills Practice

Course Description:Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course helps you learn better global, business and personal foresight, so you can better enjoy and manage your own future. This course will explore the big picture history of accelerating change from universal, historical and technological perspectives, and consider global trends that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments. Additionally, the course will examine how organizations make bets on the future, and gives the student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally, discussion of how biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder personal thinking about the future will be discussed. We will explore four fundamental foresight skills: creating the future (innovating products and services); discovering the future (models, trend identification and analysis); planning the future (developing shared goals and processes); and benefiting in the future (achieving measurable positive environmental, social, or economic results). Assignments will be personalized to your own foresight goals, and include brief readings, writing, discussions, debates, visuals, film, podcasts and games

Foresight NetworksWe’re Just Beginning to Connect Up



De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively."

“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition”



Global Futures Network: Foresight Professionals, Future-Oriented Specialists, Foresight Educators & You!


GFN is a directory of the best online social networks (Shaping Tomorrow, GFN Facebook, GFN LinkedIn), social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences, websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!

A public, community-edited People, Orgs, and Resources directory for emerging global foresight culture.FuturesNetwork.org



Foresight Professionals and Foresight EducatorsTwo Global Lists



FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators, Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education

FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for foresight educators, students, alumni, and advocates of foresight education.


It networks foresight educators, the ten existing academic programs in foresight/futures studies (offering credentials to become a foresight educator), MS and PhD students and alums, and seeks to help develop open source futures/foresight materials, courses, and new academic programs globally.



Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe

EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.


Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.

Selling Foresight DevelopmentA Few Tips and Techniques



University of Advancing Technology

Dynamic Private University,

Innovative Programs,

Technology-Focused.

Tempe/Phoenix, AZ

1400 Students

Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing technology to become innovators of the future.

14 Bachelors Degrees

MS in Technology Studies

MS in Artificial Life Programming



Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses in Foresight Development?

Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private

university in Taiwan Like history and

current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.

Why not here?



FD Allies - Career Services Center

Career Services Center– Very few undergrads use it more than one month

before graduation, even for summer internships!– Get the stats so you can show the problem.– Design Industry Research, Mentoring, Internship

and Resource Building programs in conjunction w/ the Center.

– Key: Students get credit for their own career searches, share their knowledge with later classes.



FD Allies – Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation Dept/School/Center

Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation Dept/School/Ctr– Every student needs to learn to deal with change.– Every student needs to save and invest for the future.– Every student comes up with new ideas during their careers,

or participates on a team coming up with new ideas or business processes, and needs to learn how to evaluate and implement them.

– Students need to understand the innovation mindset, the customer/client, and what makes a new or ongoing enterprise successful

– Innovation and competitiveness are national priorities.– Innovators/business minded students are among the best

alumni (measured by participation and giving).



FD Allies - Alumni Center

Alumni Center– Alumni giving and alumni interest is usually low,

and starts late.– Get the stats so you can show the problem.– Alumni Research, Mentoring, and Internship

programs in conjunction w/ the Center.– Case Study Presentations on the Life Stories of

Distinguished Alumni in FD Course.– Key: Students get credit for researching and

reaching out to alumni, share their knowledge with later classes.



FD Allies – Special Projects per Student Interest(Optional in the FD Course)

Library– Learning reference and information sciences skills

Computer Center– “Power User” IT/Web proficiency

Shop/Vo-Tech/Industrial Arts Dept/Center– Using tools for prototyping.– Working with outside groups (TechShop).



FD Vision – Foresight Resource Center (FRC)

Foresight Resource Center (FRC)– Can live in the Career Services Center, Library, a Sponsoring

Dept (Business, etc.) or Independently Faculty Benefits

– Foresight Speaking Topics/Research/Pubs by Faculty Student Benefits

– Foresight Resources by Company, Industry and Major Levels of Scope (local being highest priority)

– University Resources– Town/City/County Resources– State/National Resources– Global Resources

Social Events, Student Government



Foresight / Futures Studies – STS Parallel

● Like science and technology studies (STS), a similarly cross-disciplinary activity, foresight and futures MS and PhD programs can live in a wide range of schools and departments at a university.

● In the ideal case, such programs exist as independently-funded interdisciplinary centers at the university, able to collaborate on foresight projects with departments and centers across the campus, as well external universities, government, and corporate clients.



A Brief History of Foresight / Futures Studies: A Century of Minimal Formal Scholarship

1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration1930, William F. Ogburn, President’s Committee on Social Trends1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.)1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International)1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future1967, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation

Institute for the Future1970, Rand Graduate Institute (PhD in Policy Analysis);

Alvin Toffler, Future Shock1971, U. of Hawaii, PhD in Futures Studies (Poli. Sci.)1974, U. of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S.1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden; Inst. for Alternative Futures1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation1987, Global Business Network1995, Tamkang U., Center for Futures Studies1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines2003, Acceleration Studies Foundation



Foresight Development:Future Creation, Discovery, and Management

Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events).

In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage (“CDM”) the future.

Creation (“Possible”)– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies

for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking

Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of

prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research

Management (“Preferable”)– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,

scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes



Global Primary Foresight / Futures Studies Programs:Five PhD’s, Eleven Masters – An Emerging Discipline

AUSTRALIA 1. Swinburne U. of Tech., MS,PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.).FINLAND2. Turku School of Econ. and Finland Futures Academy. MS,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ. and Bus. Admin.).FRANCE3. CNAM, PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg). ITALY4. Da Vinci Online U, MS in Scenarios for Innovation Mgmt.MEXICO5. Monterrey Inst. of Tech, MS in Strategic ForesightPORTUGAL6. Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa, MS in Foresight, Strategy & InnovationSOUTH AFRICA 7. U. Stellenbosch and Inst. for Futures Resrch. M.Phil,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ/Mgmt).TAIWAN 8. Tamkang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies. MA in Futures Studies (Education).9. Fo Guang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies, MA in Futures Studies (Sociology)UNITED STATES10. Regent University, MA in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.)11. U. Hawaii. MA,PhD in Alternative Futures (Pol Sci).12. U. Houston, MS in Studies of the Future (Tech).

See accelerating.org/gradprograms.html



A Century of Foresight Scholarship,But Still No General Theory of Foresight

Fundamental Questions Remain: What is predictable? What is intrinsically unpredictable? What long-range forces act on complex

systems, besides natural selection? Does history have directionality?

Recent scientific ideas, such as evo devo theory, provide the beginnings of a framework for answers to such questions.

Some Foresight ModelsA Brief Overview



Foresight Development:Twelve Types of Futures Thinking

Social Types Preconventional Futurist Personal Futurist Imaginative Futurist Agenda-driven Futurist Consensus-driven Futurist Professional Futurist

Methodological Types Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist Evo-devo Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological Futurist

See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html

\Fu"tur*ist\, n. One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.

http://www.accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html



Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview

● Foresight, also known as futures studies (FS) is a transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to reliably improve one's ability to anticipate, create, and manage change.

● It can be practiced in a variety of domains (scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political and societal), on a variety of levels/scales (personal, organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a variety of disciplines/specialties (theories and methods).

● Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized world is a difficult yet worthy challenge.



Three Types of Foresight Studies:Futures, Development, and Acceleration

Foresight / Futures Studies – “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change

(scenarios, trends, strategy) Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)

– Predictable and statistically irreversible change (emergences, phase changes)

Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback,

self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes

Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.

Nevertheless, there are few primary academic programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years), and none in DS or AS (by name at least).



Foresight MS or PhD Program – Scope and Prereqs

We suggest an MS or PhD foresight/futures programs should provide basic proficiency in all the primary foresight specialties (the core curriculum of futures studies), and at least a conceptual introduction to the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in both primary and secondary specialties. We also propose that the best foresight programs should satisfy all of the following requirements:

Ideal Admission Prerequisites1. An undergraduate degree (foresight work needs context and maturity, it is best as an MS-and-above degree)2. Applied, specialized, real-world experience (3+ years incoming experience after undergrad degree)3. Science, tech, and history (econ, political and social) prereqs or testing, with mandatory deficit remediation

Ideal Program Requirements1. Broad-based, balanced, integral curriculum (all quadrant, all level, all discipline, globally- and accel-aware)2. Considers both evolutionary (possible and reversible) and developmental (probable and irreversible) change3. Measurably improves knowledge (pre- and in-program testing)4. Measurably improves skills, incl. prediction and change mgmt (validated via prediction markets, tests, etc.)5. Transdisciplinary. Foresight students should become subject matter experts (SME's) in more than one discipline



UGSOP Systems Model

We explore five systems levels in relation to foresight, starting “big picture” and doing an “inward spiral”:

1. Universal systems (science, systems theory, and spirituality)2. Global systems (technology, environment, and global problems)3. Societal systems (socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural)4. Organizational systems (entrepreneurship, management, cooperation, activism, family)5. Personal systems (aesthetics, self-development, tools, health, wealth, other social impact)



STEEPS3 Scanning Categories Model

We consider eight categories in relation to foresight:

1. Science issues (general science, general systems theory, cognition science and systems theory)2. Technology issues (computing, engineering, automation, virtualization, transparency, biotech)3. Environment issues (resources, commodities, energy, biodiversity, pollution, catastrophes, sustainability)4. Economics issues (entrepreneurship, capitalism, globalization, aid and development)5. Political issues (democracy, sustainability, rights, migration, governance, law, defense, crime)6. Social-Big (S1) issues (education, media, religion, demographics)7. Social-Medium (S2) issues (organizational, social activism, subcultures)8. Social-Small (S3) issues (personal, relationships, psychology, family, aesthetics, health)



FD Nomenclature

Framework/Learning Paradigm– The Learning Paradigm (World-View, Foundational Philosophical

Assumptions, Goals) Used by an Educator– Manifests as the Learning Objectives of the FD/FS program

(Objectives are Implicitly or Explicitly tied to the Framework). Theories

– Hypothetical and ideally empirically testable models of structure, function, and dynamics of some system

Methods/Skills– Pragmatically discovered algorithms, practices, and talents

applicable to some system. Knowledge

– Historical and current information used to improve construct framework and improve theories and methods

Specialties/Disciplines– Discrete sets of Theories, Methods, and Knowledge taught by

educators as specialties or disciplines.



ASF’s Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties

Primary Foresight Specialties (24) Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)

Alternative FuturesCross Impact and Pattern AnalysisCritical Futures and CLADevelopment and Acceleration StudiesEmerging Issues/ Technology AnalysisEnvironmental/ Horizon ScanningEthnographic FuturesForecasting and Modeling (basic)Foresight Frameworks and FoundationsHistory and Analysis of PredictionImages of the FuturePersonal Futures/ Foresight DevelopmentPrediction MarketsPredictive Surveys/ DelphiRoadmappingScenario Development and BackcastingScenario PlanningStrategic ForesightSystems ThinkingTranshumanist/ Ethics of Emerging TechTrend ExtrapolationVisioning, Intuition, and CreativityWeak SignalsWildcards

Actuarial Science and Risk AssessmentCognitive and Positive PsychologyCollaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict StudiesComplexity, Evo Devo and Systems StudiesCritical and Evidence-Based ThinkingEthics and Values StudiesEvolution StudiesForecasting and Modeling (advanced)Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit StudiesInnovation and Entrepreneurship StudiesIntegral Studies and ThinkingInvesting and Finance (Long-Term)Leadership Studies and Organizational DevelopmntLibrary Science, KM, and Decision SupportLong-Range and Urban PlanningPolitical Science and Policy StudiesProbabilistic (Statistical) PredictionPreferential Surveys/Polls and Market ResearchReligious Studies (Future Beliefs)Science and Technology StudiesSocially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt.Sociology, Demographics and Social ChangeStrategic PlanningSustainability Studies

Other Foresight-Related Specialties (45, a partial list) Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences | Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography | History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics | Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy | Tourism | Urban Studies



3P’s Skills / CDM Skills Model

In terms of foresight skills, we’ll use the classic 3P’s Skills Model, and practice seeing and analyzing “Possible, Probable, and Preferable” Futures. This model was first developed by Roy Amara, President and CEO (1970-1990) of one of the first futures think tanks, the Institute for the Future, founded in 1968. Another name for this, based on the actions involved, is the CDM Skills Model, as it is about:

1. Creating/Envisioning a range of Possible futures2. Discovering/Predicting the most Probable futures3. Managing/Measuring toward Preferable futures.

http://www.iftf.org/people/ramara.html

http://www.iftf.org/



Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework

Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group specialties that explore the Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans). This is also an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.



Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS)

First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979

The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change



Wilber’s Integral Life Skills Framework

The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework to categorize fundamentalcomplementary processes of human understanding and change.

http://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Everything-Ken-Wilber/dp/1590304500/



ASF’s Integral Foresight Skills Framework

We see four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting, and predicting, which map to Wilber’s four quadrants of life experience.

Creating/Innovating"Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want"

Benefiting/Measuring"Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future."

Planning/Negotiating"Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want."

Predicting/Discovering"Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future."

Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist. Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to be a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.



Integral Foresight Practices:Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IPBP)

Innovating/Creating (I)

Thinking and acting by personally preferred futures

Planning/Negotiating (We)

Thinking and acting by social consensus plans

Benefiting/Measuring (It)

Thinking and acting by objectively measurable results

Predicting/Discovering (Its)

Thinking and acting by statistically predictive forecasts



Integral Foresight Practices:Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IBPB)

I (Individual/Self)

Creativity-Driven Futures

It (Organizational/Contractual)

Benefit-Driven Futures

lnnovatingTech, Culture, Art, Philos

BenefitingEcon-Political

We (Social/Kinship)

Consensus-Driven Futures

Its (Global/Species)

Research-Driven Futures

PlanningSocial-Political

Predicting

Science, Systems



Integral Foresight Model:Possible, Preferable, and Possible Futures

I (Individual/Self)

Creativity-Driven Futures

It (Organizational/Contractual)

Benefit-Driven Futures

lnnovatingTech, Culture, Art, Philos

BenefitingEcon-Political

We (Social/Kinship)

Consensus-Driven Futures

Its (Global/Species)

Research-Driven Futures

PlanningSocial-Political

Predicting

Science, Systems

Possible Future

s

Prefera

ble Future

s

Probable F

uture

s

Futures Studies is about “Three P’s and a W”: Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures (plus Wildcards) – Roy Amara



Some Limits and Benefits of Models

Limits: Biased. “These are the most important factors”. Oversimplified. There are other important factors. Abstract. They may not correspond to reality. Inaccurate. They may be incorrect.

Benefits: Consensual. They help us see what some group sees, not just

what we see. Clarifying. They show categories, forces, interactions we may

have overlooked. Balancing. They help us pay attention more across the spectrum

of “generally accepted importance.” Focusing. They help us look better at the things we are seeing

(drill deep in any subject).

Foresight Development @ UATInaugural Course Overview



Our Open Access, CC-Licensed Course Wiki

Syllabus

Teaching templates

Assignments

Resources

Course slides availableto foresight educatorson request.

Visit:

http://foresightdevelopment.wetpaint.com



Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit I)

Unit I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4)Intro to and history of futures studies, theories of universal change, and the unique nature of our time—scientific and technological progress that is likely to run faster every year for the rest of our lives.Week 1 – Intro to Futures StudiesWeek 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of ScienceWeek 3 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part IWeek 4 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part II



Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit II)

Unit II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9)Forces and choices affecting our planet and our socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural environments.Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and ModelsWeek 6 – Global Problems and Priorities Week 7 – Economics and the Future of CapitalismWeek 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and DemocracyWeek 9 – Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society



Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit III)

Unit III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11)Forces and choices shaping the business and organizational world, the many social definitions of success, and practical success strategies.Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and PredictingWeek 11 – Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, and Metrics



Foresight Development – Lectures (Unit IV)

Unit IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15)Using foresight in your personal life and future careers. Finding your own strengths, passions, vision, and voice, and navigating an increasingly option-rich future, "present trends extended" (PTE). Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and VisioningWeek 13 – Personal and Career Learning and PredictingWeek 14 – Personal and Career Planning and NegotiatingWeek 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring



Web 2.0 Tools for FD Course – A Brief List

DOAJ. Directory of Open Access Journals, scientific and scholarly. Full text. Free.Docstoc. Sharing business, legal, and other professional documents. Free.GDocs and Spreadsheets. Good basic collaboration platform. Free. GMail and GCalendar. Clean, fast, reasonably full-featured. Free basic. GReader. Great tool for organizing RSS feeds and tracking site updates. Free.iGoogle. Fast, customizable, reasonably useful home page. Free.LibraryThing. Catalog & find others with the same books. Free basic. 200K users.Linqia. Search tool for online groups & social networks, by keyword interest.Ning. Create your own full-featured social networks. Free.Plaxo Pulse. FB-like business network. Free. 13M Plaxo users (not Pulse).Slideshare. Largest community for publicly sharing your presentations. Free.SmugMug. Best fee-based photosharing. Document your life. $40/yr. 300K users. Spock. A search tool for finding people by interest. Free. 80M "indexed" people.Wetpaint. Easy personal or enterprise wikis. Free basic. 600K wikis (+ this site).Xing. For business networking. Free basic. 4M users.Yelp. Good reviews of local businesses and services. Democracy in action! Free.

http://www.doaj.org/

http://www.docstoc.com/

http://docs.google.com/

http://docs.google.com/

http://mail.google.com/



http://www.google.com/reader

http://www.google.com/ig

http://www.librarything.com/

http://www.linqia.com/

http://www.ning.com/

http://www.plaxo.com/info

http://www.plaxo.com/info

http://www.slideshare.net/

http://www.smugmug.com/

http://www.spock.com/

http://www.wetpaint.com/

http://www.xing.com/

http://www.yelp.com/



Personal Foresight System used in FD Course:Getting Things Done (GTD), GDocs, GCal

The Core GTD System:

1. Actualizer Doc

(Done Items, Next Items, Waiting For Items)

2. Projects Doc(Multistep Items)

3. Someday/Maybe Doc(Long term/low priority)

Transfer your Actualizer record once a month to Archives Doc. Annotate as you transfer. How could you have been more foresighted, realistic, and effective? Use email reminders, try out shared calendars in GCal.



Psychological Foresight Tools Used in FD Course:StrengthsFinder (and other Psych Testing Rubrics)

Peter Drucker: Individuals should discover and focus on building their best strengths, much more than fixing their weaknesses, to make their best and happiest contribution to the world.

Weaknesses in turn can be best managed by:1. Being aware of strengths you don’t have2. Joining strengths-complementary teams3. Allowing others to lead from their different strengths4. Building situational intelligence (routines, tools, brief courses,

etc.) to keep you from getting tripped up by your weaknesses.

Gallup’s StrengthsFinder (and other psych profiling assessments like MBTI, DiSC, etc.) are predictive futures tools.

How validated are they? (Gallup lists 34 strengths, large polling set) How complete are they (strengths and weaknesses, integral)? When will they be a required part of our educational, hiring (AMA:

only 39% of U.S. companies use psych testing in hiring, mostly still minor, not yet open source), and assessment processes? We are still very early in this process. Major opportunity ahead.



Personal Foresight Process in FD Course:Eliciting Student Values and Goals

Values Inventory– What do you care about beyond ‘survival needs’?– What is it others do that angers/offends you?

Goals (in a Categorization System)– Personal and Academic/Professional– Health, Family, Relationships, Professional– HRVWE

Health Relationships Vision (Hindsight/Insight/Foresight) Work Environment (Possessions, etc.)

Harvard MBA Goals Study– The 3% with written goals earned 10X the others per capita– The 15% with verbal goals earned 3X the others per capita– The 20% of startups with business plans were 3X more likely to be

solvent at 5 years.



Personal Futures Wiki (Portfolio) Used in Course:Fourteen Pages, Fifty Questions on FD

GTD Pages

Tasks+Waiting Single-step "Next Actions" ("Tasks"), & "Waiting For Others" itemsProjects+Skills Multi-step, long-term items ("Projects") and Skills that make you unique.Ideas+Questions "Someday/Maybe" Ideas (personal, biz, etc.) and Questions to

research.

Personal Pages

Diary A place to journal--and review--daily or memorable life experiences.Money Income, expenses, budget, investments, money goals and plans.Habits Health, exercise, practice, entertainment, any repeating “healthy habits.”Fam+Friends Your important relationships, things your fam&friends like, don’t like, & plans.Values+Psych Your values, ideals, personality, and psychological traits.Social+Fun Social groups, travel, other fun things you now or might do for

“recreation.”

Career Pages

Career Goals Career plans and possibilities, current life goals and objectives.Education+Work Degrees, classes, jobs, highlights, current ed/work schedule, future

plans.Networking Group memberships, conferences, networks that connect you to

professnls.Mentors Leaders and helpers in your profession, and your contact history with them.Co’s+Internships Co. profiles, site visits, contacts, internship opportunities and

schedules.



Some Big Question Options to Debate in Course: Societal (Economic, Political, and Cultural) Issues

Economics1. Is the US “destined” to lose its economic and educational leadership to New Asia (China,

Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, India, etc.)? What should we do?2. What are ways the US can help manage global development in more equitable, innovative,

and sustainable directions in coming years?3. Have the corporations become too powerful in U.S. society? How can we keep powerful

corporations from reducing global and local competition? From buying political influence?Politics4. Will strategies of more participatory democracy (initiative politics, direct local democracy,

grassroots activism, nonviolent resistance (boycotts, civil disobedience etc.) become more powerful in a Network 2.0 world? How might they change the U.S. political climate (positively and negatively)?

5. As military and security technologies get more autonomous (UAVs, etc.), more precise (smart weapons, and more networked and transparent, what changes can we expect in the U.S. military and homeland security environment (“threatscape”)?

6. If selfishness and evil (lying, violence, etc.) have been key parts of human nature up until now, how can we keep them in check in a world of accelerating economic growth (creating powerful new plutocrats) and accelerating tech (environmental degradation, terrorist WMDs)?

Culture7. Are any of our cultural indicators (citizen intelligence, independence, analytical ability, world

knowledge, self-reliance, self-accountability, community) declining in the U.S.? Why? Is this a problem, or is this OK as long as our “machines” pick up the slack? Are they?

8. How can we, or do we want to, restore the American educational “Social Contract” of the mid-20th century, which tried to give all citizens an affordable and challenging education according to their ability rather than according to their wealth?

9. What has been the impact of Network 1.0 technology (TV, Web 1.0, etc.) and economy (early info/services economy) on U.S. culture so far? Where may it go in Network 2.0 (next 25 years of info and communication tech)? What are some of the opportunities and risks ahead?

Why TeachForesight / Futures Studies?

Your intuitions, please!

Why Teach Foresight / Futures Studies?

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present.

Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our

Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal Futures



Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision

+Prediction Markets, Delphi, and

the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds

Great Futures Books and MoviesUsed in Foresight Development Course

(and to Consider for Your Course)



Futures Movie Night – Weeks 1-5One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development

Week 1 - Futures StudiesThe Future We Will Create: Inside the World of TED, 2007 Future Living 2025, Discovery Channel, 2007Pandora's Box (Six Episodes), Adam Curtis, 1992Week 2 - ScienceOrigins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution, Episode 4: Where Are the Aliens?, NOVA, 2004Evolution (8 Episode Series): Episode 2 - Great Transformations, PBS, 2001Judgment Day: Intelligent Design on Trial, NOVA, 2007Week 3 - Technology, Part IBeyond Human, Episode 2: Living Machines, Thomas Lucas, PBS, 20012057: The Body, The City, The World (3 Episodes), Discovery ChannelFuture Cars: Episode 1 - Extreme Cars (4 Episodes), Discovery Channel, 2007Future Weapons: Smart Weapons, (Season 1, Episode 4), Discovery Channel, 2006Tokyo's Sky City and Transatlantic Tunnel, Extreme Engrg (S1, Ep 1), Discovery Channel, 2006Week 4 - Technology, Part IIComputers - Modern Marvels, History Channel, 2005Pirates of Silicon Valley, Martyn Burke, 1999Amazing story of the birth of the personal computer, the first great chapter in the democratization of computing. The Internet/Web 1.0 was the second. What will be third? Web 2.0?Startup.com, Chris Hegedus, 2001Tech startups can be abysmal in new industries, where foresight is lacking. These Web 1.0 guys burn through 60 million in 18 months, leaving nada to show for it. Incredibly instructive.Revolution OS, J.T.S. Moore, 2002Video Game Invasion: The History of a Global Obsession, David Comtois, 2004Week 5 - Global, Part IWorld in the Balance: The Population Paradox and China Revs Up, NOVA, 2004 (2 Episodes)Planet in Peril: A CNN Worldwide Investigation (2 Episodes), CNN, 2007Energy Crossroads, Chris Fauchere, 2007Solar Energy: Saved by the Sun, NOVA, 2007

http://www.tedfilm.com/

http://www.educatedearth.net/video.php?id=3411

http://messageinamatrix.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/adam-curtis-pandoras-box-1992/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0001WTWPG/

http://www.amazon.com/Evolution-Boxed-Liam-Neeson-narrator/dp/B00005RG6J/

http://www.shoppbs.org/sm-pbs-nova-judgment-day-intelligent-design-on-trial-dvd--pi-2950515.html

http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Human-Joe-Morton/dp/B00005KJNK

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/2057/2057.html

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/future-car/future-car.html

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Weapons-Season-1/dp/B000TEUSLI/

http://www.amazon.com/Extreme-Engineering-Season-Episode-Tokyos/dp/B000KGGO90/

http://www.amazon.com/Modern-Marvels-Computers-History-Channel/dp/B000BKVL8Y

http://www.amazon.com/Pirates-Silicon-Valley-Noah-Wyle/dp/B0009NSCS0

http://www.amazon.com/Startup-com-Kaleil-Isaza-Tuzman/dp/B00005N5QV

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0000A9GLO/

http://www.amazon.com/Video-Game-Invasion-History-Obsession/dp/B0002T7YYE/

http://www.amazon.com/NOVA-World-Balance-Population-Paradox/dp/B00018U8YE/

http://www.amazon.com/Planet-Peril-2-DVD-set/dp/B000WUUNSC/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000SNWA2A/

http://www.amazon.com/NOVA-Solar-Energy-Saved-Sun/dp/B000PWQPAW/



Week 6 - Global, Part IICommanding Heights, Episode 1: The Battle of Ideas, Daniel Yergin, 2003 Commanding Heights, Episode 3: The New Rules of the Game, Daniel Yergin, 2003 Utopia, Paragon, 2005 The worst mass crimes of the 20th century were created by "top-down" utopian futurists with grand visions and power, and no sufficiently organized opposition, or pluralistic checks and balances. Lenin, Hitler, Mao are all chillingly portrayed in this compelling film.People's Century (Award-winning 26 episodes on the 20th Century) Great Leap: 1943-1976, PBS, 1999Incredible story of the heartbreaking, dysfunctional impact of Mao Tse Tung, one of the most powerful utopian futurists of the 20th century, up to and during the Cultural Revolution in China.Confronting the Truth, The growth of truth commissions. They address the pain of the past, restore human rights and due process, create institutional memory, and ensure social horrors will not be repeated.Uganda Rising, Pete McCormack, 2006Great story about Ugandan politics and the youth-soldiers in the Lords Resistance Army. Social engineering (amnesty & reconciliation) can address complex issues of civil violence. Week 7 - EconomicsWal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price, Robert Greenwald, 2005Learn about the largest, wealthiest company in the world. Grossly unfair US government subsidies, substandard wages and health care, exploitation of Chinese workers, aggressively antiunion policies allowing substandard working conditions to persist. Strong social democracies like Germany hold Wal-Mart to a much higher standard. When will we?The Corporation (2 Disc Special Edition), Mark Achbar, 2004 Overly histrionic and sloppy, yet still a reasonably useful exploration of the excesses of the corporate entity in the 20th century, which have become less extreme in individual instance, yet more pervasive as corporate wealth has grown to exceed national wealth the world over. Briefly considers the unrealized possibilities for corporate charter revocation and reform. Sicko (Special Edition), Michael Moore, 2007One of Moore's more balanced works, while still biased infotainment. Special features on the DVD include this 8 minute piece on Norway's health care and penal system. Moore highlights Norwegian outliers in the prison bit, without telling you, as is typical of his propagandism. Still, when will US citizens have the power to create a health care system that puts universal care ahead of profits? We shall see.


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/peoplescentury/about/descr.html

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/peoplescentury/episodes/greatleap/




Week 8 - Politics + SecurityWhy We Fight, Eugene Jarecki, 2006No End In Sight, Charles Ferguson, 2007Our Brand is Crisis, Rachel Boynton, 2005The Fog of War, Errol Morris, 2003Well-Founded Fear: Gaining Political Asylum in America, Shari Robertson, 2001Week 9 - Media, Education, CultureOrwell Rolls in His Grave, Robert Kane Pappas, 2004Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism, Robert Greenwald, 2004News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 3 - What's Happening to the News, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 4 - Stories from a Small Planet, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, John Merrow, PBS, 20052 Million Minutes: A Documentary Calculating the Educational Divide, Chad Heeter, 2007Revealing, hard-hitting documentary financed by multimillionaire venture capitalist Bob Compton. It demonstrates just how far behind the United States education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) has fallen, and just how comfortable we are with this situation. The modern global marketplace is highly competitive, and the leading innovations and companies of the future are going to come from countries that have strong STEM education and an innovative culture. Will we recognize how vulnerable we presently are, and reform our educational system and start immigrating the best and the brightest again, or will we continue to slide into narcissism and global irrelevancy? Each of us has the choice, for ourselves.Week 10 - Biz-Org, Part IWho Killed the Electric Car?, Chris Paine, 2006We Built this City - Paris, Discovery Channel, 2005

Week 11 - Biz-Org, Part II Merchants of Cool, Barak Goodman, Frontline, PBS, 2005The Persuaders, Rachel Dretzin, Frontline, PBS, 2005Architecture to Zucchini: People, Co’s, and Orgs Pioneering Sustainability, 2006




Week 12 - Personal-Career, Part IA Whole New Mind, Daniel Pink, 2006The Up Series, Michael Apted (Three 20 min pieces, 7 up, 21 up, and 42 up)Mr. Personality (Intvw w/ Forensic Psychologist Michael Stone) on The Thin Blue Line , Errol Morris, 2005Week 13 - Personal-Career, Part IIMaxed Out, James Scurlock, 2005Excellent expose of the massive addiction to debt at the consumer and national level. Legal reform makes it increasingly easy to hook unsuspecting, unforesighted consumers, starting in college, into paying 24-29% a month in interest to the big financial institutions, for years on end. Probably the most profitable legal scam in the US at present. As individuals we can break the vicious cycle, but it takes financial foresight to do so.Secret History of the Credit Card, Frontline, David Rummel, 2004Week 14 - Personal-Career, Part IIIBringing Down a Dictator, Steve York, 2002A Force More Powerful: Episode 2, Steve York, 2000 (2 episodes)Street Fight, Marshall Curry, 2005Modern politics and racial stereotyping in the 2002 Newark, NJ Mayoral campaign. The corruption and dishonesty are incredible, the electorate is hoodwinked, yet there is still hope.Week 15 - Personal-Career, Part IVLegacy, Tod Lending, 2006The Bridge, Eric Steel, 2006The Business of Being Born, Abby Epstein, 2007Shows the way Americans, as the world's most convenience-oriented culture, have allowed the business of medicine to turn childbirth into an experts-only affair and a major profit center. The low number of parents who use midwives (8% in US vs. 70% in Europe) illustrates our patriarchal, numbed-out approach. Is it any wonder that our parenting is also increasingly hands off as well? Fortunately we can rise above the limitations of our disempowering “experts only” culture and make childbirth, parenting, funeral arrangements, insurance, and other big life choices something we control ourselves.



Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week, Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)

Week 1 - Introduction to Futures StudiesTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays

The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern, 2000.Great book on the success and failures of foresight and “prediction science.”

Thinking About the Future: Guide for Strat Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007Great practical text on how orgs can prepare for the future. 36 contributors.

Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education, James Dator, Ed., 2002. History, courses, methods, concerns, and issues of teaching futures. 19 contributors.

A Brief History of Tomorrow: The Future Past and Present, Jonathan Margolis, 2001Insightful and witty novel-type read on the wild and crazy frontier of futuring.

Contemporary Futurist Thought: Sci-Fi and Futures Studies, Thomas Lombardo, 2006Good survey of the range and value of futures thinking by a futures studies professor.

Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar, Ed., 199918 futurists stress the need for non-Western cultures and concerns in futures.

Yesterday’s Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future, Joseph J. Corn, 1984Beautiful pics of U.S. future images, discussion of the benefits and limits of visioning.

TechTV’s Catalog of Tomorrow: Trends Shaping Your Future, Andrew Zolli, Ed., 2003100 fun two-page essays on trends and tech, looking out 5-20 years. 44 contributors.

MacMillan Atlas of the Future, Ian Pearson, Ed., 1998Maps and graphics popularizing future trends and issues for humanity. 25 contributors.

The Gaia Atlas of Future Worlds: Challenge and Opportunity, Norman Myers, 1990 Pretty atlas of trends, issues in global sustainability. Old enough do prediction-checking.



Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of ScienceTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays

Decoding the Universe: The New Science of Information, Charles Siefe, 2006Information physics is relating brains to black holes, and predicting the multiverse.

Astrobiology: A Beginners Guide, Lewis Dartnell, 2007The new science of astrobiology: how special planets create life, on Earth and elsewhere.

Biocosm: A New Scientific Theory of Evolution, James Gardner, 2003Our universe has many features of a biological system & may have had an "intelligent" start.

The Privileged Planet: Our Anthropic Place in the Cosmos, Gonzalez and Richards, 2004Evidence that Earth is in a "special" place in the cosmos, optimized for scientific discovery.

Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo, Scott Carroll, 2006Great intro to biological evo devo: how evolution and development interact in organisms.

Life’s Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, Simon Conway-Morris, 2003Great intro to universal evo devo: how evolution leads to "convergent evolution" in Universe.

The Origins of Virtue: Human Instincts and the Evolution of Cooperation, Matt Ridley, 1998Short overview of how societies build cooperation and morality through collaboration.

The Next 50 Years: Science in the First Half of the 21st Century, John Brockman, Ed., 200225 essays on the future of the Cosmos, Math, Neurosci, Bio, Culture, Morality, and Prediction.

The End of Science: Facing the Limits of the [Human-Only] Scientific Age, John Horgan, 1997Controversial arguments that science is running into human limits. Will AI's do better?

The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan, 1997A call to scientific and "evidence-based" thinking to help solve humanity's problems.


http://www.amazon.com/Decoding-Universe-Information-Explaining-Everything/dp/B000NBKIXU

http://www.amazon.com/Astrobiology-Beginners-Guide-Guides/dp/1851685057/

http://www.amazon.com/Biocosm-Scientific-Evolution-Intelligent-Architect/dp/1930722265/

http://www.amazon.com/Biocosm-Scientific-Evolution-Intelligent-Architect/dp/1930722265/

http://www.amazon.com/Privileged-Planet-Cosmos-Designed-Discovery/dp/0895260654



http://www.amazon.com/Endless-Forms-Most-Beautiful-Science/dp/0393327795/




http://www.amazon.com/Lifes-Solution-Inevitable-Humans-Universe/dp/0521827043

http://www.amazon.com/Origins-Virtue-Instincts-Evolution-Cooperation/dp/0140264450/

http://www.amazon.com/Next-Fifty-Years-John-Brockman/dp/0753817101/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0553061747/

http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Haunted-World-Science-Candle-Dark/dp/0345409469/



Week 3 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part ITen Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays

Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History, David Christian, 2004Good overview of the "Big Picture" of accel. change, from a universal perspective.

Society and Technological Change, 5th. Ed., Rudi Volti, 2005Very good STS textbook on the impact of tech. change on society over centuries.

The Change Function: Why Some Technol. Take Off & Others Crash, Pip Coburn, 2006Why people don't try new things until the perceived benefits outweigh the pain of change.

The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intell., Ray Kurzweil, 2000Great insights on tech accel. Proposes human-intell. computers will arrive by mid-century.

Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing, Adam Greenfield, 2006How computers are becoming miniaturized, interconnected, and embedded everywhere.

Nanotechnology: Science, Innovation, and Opportunity, Lynn Foster, Ed., 2005Great intro to the many opportunities and challenges of nanotech for humans & the world.

Hacking Matter: The Infinite Weirdness of Programmable Atoms, Wil McCarthy, 2004A sometimes-crazy romp through the really powerful, really weird world of "Inner Space.“

Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Human Enhancement, Joel Garreau, 2006Discusses 3 key social paths for the future of GRIN (Genetics, Robotics, Info, Nano) tech.

Intervention: The Real Risks of Genetic Engineering and Biotech, Denise Caruso, 2006Good exploration of the risks of biotech, and the social values that limit its adoption.

Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age, Bill McKibben, 2004A call for preserving human values, identity, and culture in our highly technological age.


http://www.amazon.com/Maps-Time-Introduction-History-California/dp/0520244761/

http://www.amazon.com/Society-Technological-Change-Rudi-Volti/dp/0716787326/

http://www.amazon.com/Change-Function-Technologies-Others-Crash/dp/B000NA6U2O/

http://www.amazon.com/Age-Spiritual-Machines-Computers-Intelligence/dp/0140282025/



http://www.amazon.com/Everyware-Dawning-Age-Ubiquitous-Computing/dp/0321384016/

http://www.amazon.com/Everyware-Dawning-Age-Ubiquitous-Computing/dp/0321384016/

http://www.amazon.com/Nanotechnology-Innovation-Opportunity-Lynn-Foster/dp/0131927566/

http://www.amazon.com/Hacking-Matter-Levitating-Weirdness-Programmable/dp/0465044298/

http://www.amazon.com/Radical-Evolution-Promise-Enhancing-Bodies/dp/0767915038/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0615135536

http://www.amazon.com/Enough-Staying-Human-Engineered-Age/dp/0805075194/



Week 4 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part IITen Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays

Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorg., Greg Stock, 1993A very good book on human-machine symbiosis, written from a biological perspective.

Visions of Technology: A Century of Debate about Machines, Richard Rhodes, 2000Vignettes on the social impact of 20th century tech change, by an emininent historian.

Technology Matters: Questions to Live With, David Nye, 2006Key Q’s about tech: Is it predictable? Does it control us? How does it change work? Culture?

Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology, Neil Postman, 1993Great exposition of the ways technology weakens society, and ideas on how to fight back.

Technology and the Future, Albert Teich, 10th Ed, AAAS, 2005Good range of mostly conservative views on tech futures and social responses.

Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games, Edward Castronova, 2006Social and economic trends in VW’s, games, and the coming Metaverse economy.

Deception: Pakistan, the US and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, Levy and Scott-Clark, 2007WMDs are a major problem. US policy short-sightedness has proliferated nuke tech globally.

The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Kunstler, 2006Doomsaying that peak oil and climate change can't be fixed fast enough to prevent collapse.

The Bottomless Well: Why We Will Never Run out of Energy, Huber and Mills, 2006Techno-optimist, utopian ideas that new tech and free markets solve all energy problems.

The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James Hogan, Yukinobu Hoshino, 2006Fictional account of one of the great questions of 21C tech: How do we trust the coming AI?


http://www.amazon.com/Metaman-Merging-Humans-Machines-Superorganism/dp/067170723X




http://www.amazon.com/Visions-Technology-Century-Machines-Systems/dp/0684863111

http://www.amazon.com/Technology-Matters-Questions-David-Nye/dp/0262640678/

http://www.amazon.com/Technopoly-Surrender-Technology-Neil-Postman/dp/0679745408/

http://www.amazon.com/Technopoly-Surrender-Technology-Neil-Postman/dp/0679745408/

http://www.amazon.com/Technology-Future-Albert-H-Teich/dp/0534602770

http://www.amazon.com/Synthetic-Worlds-Business-Culture-Online/dp/0226096270/

http://www.amazon.com/Deception-Pakistan-United-Nuclear-Weapons/dp/0802715540/

http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0802142494

http://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy/dp/046503117X/

http://www.amazon.com/Two-Faces-Tomorrow-James-Hogan/dp/1593075634



Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and ModelsTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays

Global Trends 2015: A Dialog About the Future, CIA, 2005Excellent, concise, CIA-compiled database of important global trends and implications.

Modernization, Cultural Change, & Democracy: Values & Devel., Ronald Inglehart, 2005Summary of 40 years of research showing how development creates a common set of values.

The Transparent Society: Technology, Privacy and Freedom, David Brin, 1999Balanced treatment of the upsides and downsides of our accelerating global transparency.

Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Allen Hammond, 1998Three institutions look out to 2050 and paint three different scenarios for the global future.

The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Executive Summary, RAND, 2006Great overview of trends, challenges, and options in nano, bio and info technologies.

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Jeroen van der Veer, 2005Energy, resources, economic, & political scenarios from Shell, a leading scenario developer.

Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Barry Hughes, 2006Modeling system for International Futures. Good in general, but not fully technology-aware.

The State of the World 2007, Worldwatch Institute, 2007Annual world status report from environment to human rights. Sustainability focused.

The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the State of the World, Bjorn Lomborg, 2001A critical look at claims that our global environment is falling apart. Evidence for optimism.

Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Robert Wright, 2001Makes the case that non-zero sum (positive sum) interactions drive most social activity.


http://www.amazon.com/Global-Trends-2015-Dialogue-Future/dp/1596051744/

http://www.amazon.com/Modernization-Cultural-Change-Democracy-Development/dp/0521609712/

http://www.amazon.com/Modernization-Cultural-Change-Democracy-Development/dp/0521609712/

http://www.amazon.com/Transparent-Society-Technology-Between-Privacy/dp/0738201448

http://www.amazon.com/Which-World-Scenarios-21St-Century/dp/1559635762/

http://www.amazon.com/Global-Technology-Revolution-2020-Implications/dp/0833039105/

http://www.amazon.com/Shell-Global-Scenarios-2025-Jeroen/dp/0881323837/

http://www.amazon.com/Exploring-Shaping-International-Futures-Hughes/dp/1594512329/

http://www.amazon.com/State-World-2007-Urban-Future/dp/0393329232/

http://www.amazon.com/Skeptical-Environmentalist-Measuring-State-World/dp/0521010683/

http://www.amazon.com/Nonzero-Logic-Destiny-Robert-Wright/dp/0679758941/



Week 6 – Global Problems and PrioritiesTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays

Mapping the Global Future: The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project, NIC, 2005Great illustrated summary of future global scenarios, from the National Intelligence Council.

From Third World to First, The Singapore Story: 1965-2000, Lee Kuan Yew, 2000How “authoritarian capitalism” enabled rapid economic development. A model for others?

Environment: An Introductory Textbook, 5th Edition, Peter Raven, 2005College text on our natural environment, a complex system we still don't understand well.

Wilson's Ghost: Reducing Conflict and Catastrophe in 21C, McNamara & Blight, 2001Brilliant book on the global context enabling the 9/11 attacks, and future US policy options.

Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity, UNDP, 2006Goals and progress in global development per the United Nations Development Program.

How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, Bjorn Lomborg, 2006Priorities for global development from Lomborg's "Copenhagen Consensus.“

Worldchanging: A User’s Guide for the 21st Century, Alex Steffen, 2006Tools and strategies for achieving a "bright, green future." Sustainability and innovation.

Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, A New Urban World, Robert Neuwirth, 2006Issues and futures of the world's biggest slums, by a journalist who has lived in them.

The End of Poverty, Economic Possibilities for Our Time, Jeffrey Sachs, 2006Asks for new levels of political, corporate, & individual participation in global development.

The White Man’s Burden: Why Western Aid Has Done So Little Good, Bill Easterly, 2007How we hurt the developing world in trying to aid them, and the difficulty of the problem.


http://www.amazon.com/Mapping-Global-Future-National-Intelligence/dp/0160732182/

http://www.amazon.com/Third-World-First-Singapore-1965-2000/dp/0060197765/

http://www.amazon.com/Environment-Peter-H-Raven/dp/0471704385/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0000C4JBT/

http://www.amazon.com/Human-Development-Report-2006-Scarcity/dp/0230500587/


http://www.amazon.com/Worldchanging-Users-Guide-21st-Century/dp/0810930951/

http://www.amazon.com/Worldchanging-Users-Guide-21st-Century/dp/0810930951/

http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Cities-Billion-Squatters-Urban/dp/0415953618/

http://www.amazon.com/End-Poverty-Economic-Possibilities-Time/dp/0143036580/

http://www.amazon.com/White-Mans-Burden-Efforts-Little/dp/0143038826/



Week 7 – Economics and the Future of CapitalismTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays

Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, & Econ of Prosperity, William Baumol, 2007Explains the four major types of capitalism. Only one, entrepreneurial capitalism, is ideal.

The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Thomas Friedman, 1999Intro to accel. globalization and its new-world vs. old-world tensions. Written before 9/11.

One Nation, Underprivileged, Mark Robert Rank, 2005Huge social costs of undereducating and underemploying American poor and immigrants.

China Shakes the World: The Challenge for America, James Kynge, 2006Now and future impact of Chinese economic, political, & social power on world & the US.

Three Billion New Capitalists: Great Shift of Wealth & Power East, Clyde Prestowitz, 2006Issues of integrating a growing, Networked Asia (China,India,SE Asia) into global economy.

Information Rules: A Guide to the Network Economy, Shapiro and Varian, 1998Good overview of the economic, info, and social changes in the Network Society.

Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution, Hawken and Lovins, 2000Eloquent call for a future of sustainable economics and green business: natural capitalism.

Banker to the Poor: Micro-Lending and World Poverty, Muhammad Yunus, 2003By the Nobel-winning founder of Grameen Bank, pioneers of microcredit for the poor.

The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: End Poverty Thru Profits, C.K. Prahalad, 2006Opportunities in Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) capitalism, microcredit to microconsumption.

The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, Joel Bakan, 2005Considers weaknesses of the modern corporate structure and possibilities for reform.


http://www.amazon.com/Good-Capitalism-Economics-Growth-Prosperity/dp/0300109415/

http://www.amazon.com/Lexus-Olive-Tree-Understanding-Globalization/dp/0374185522/

http://www.amazon.com/One-Nation-Underprivileged-American-Poverty/dp/0195189728/

http://www.amazon.com/China-Shakes-World-Troubled-Challenge/dp/0618705643/

http://www.amazon.com/Three-Billion-New-Capitalists-Wealth/dp/0465062822/

http://www.amazon.com/Information-Rules-Strategic-Network-Economy/dp/087584863X/

http://www.amazon.com/Natural-Capitalism-Creating-Industrial-Revolution/dp/0316353000/

http://www.amazon.com/Banker-Poor-Micro-Lending-Against-Poverty/dp/1586481983/

http://www.amazon.com/Fortune-Bottom-Pyramid-Eradicating-Paperback/dp/0131877291/

http://www.amazon.com/Corporation-Pathological-Pursuit-Profit-Power/dp/0743247469/



Week 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and DemocracyTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays

Lies My Teacher Told Me: What Your History Textbook Got Wrong, James Loewen, 2007Brilliant critique of the "feel good myths" we learn in history class, and ideas for change.

The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, Fareed Zakaria, 2007Explores the limits and weaknesses of democracy and the ways it can become illiberal.

The American Anomaly: U.S. in Comparative Perspective, Raymond Smith, 2007 Argues the U.S. is no longer the most participatory and competitive political economy.

America (The Book) Teacher’s Ed: A Guide to Democracy Inaction, Jon Stewart, 2006Hilarious intro to American history and political democracy, warts and all. Comedy Central.

Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich, Kevin Phillips, 2003Why the rich are not conservatives (low govt) but plutocrats (use govt to their advantage).

The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Samuel Huntington, 1998Sees the world as a set of eight cultures increasingly conflicting over religion and dogma.

The Lucifer Principle: An Expedition into the Forces of History, Howard Bloom, 1997Argues that evil (lying, violence, etc.) plays an essential role in biological adaptation.

A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, Ackerman and Duvall, 2001Chronicles the rising power of nonviolent mass resistance to remove or reform governments.

The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, Thomas Barnett, 2005Combating disconnectedness (tech, econ, & cultural) as a key U.S. global security strategy.

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock, 2005Great study of the repeating patterns, biases, and limits of political (and other) prediction.


http://www.amazon.com/Lies-My-Teacher-Told-Everything/dp/0743296281

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Freedom-Illiberal-Democracy-Revised/dp/0393331520/

http://www.amazon.com/American-Anomaly-Government-Comparative-Perspective/dp/041595746X/

http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Stewart-Presents-America-Teachers/dp/0446691860/

http://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Democracy-Political-History-American/dp/0767905342/

http://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/0684844419/

http://www.amazon.com/Lucifer-Principle-Scientific-Expedition-History/dp/0871136643/

http://www.amazon.com/Force-More-Powerful-Non-Violent-Conflict/dp/0312240503/

http://www.amazon.com/Pentagons-New-Map-Twenty-first-Century/dp/0425202399/

http://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715/



Week 9 – Culture, Media, and Education in a Network SocietyTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 2 Essays

The First Measured Century: Trends in America, 1900-2000, Theodore Caplow et. al., 2000One hundred years of social and economic trends, with graphics and engaging commentary.

The Rise of the Image, the Fall of the Word, Mitchell Stephens, 1998Charts the rise of moving images and decline of the printed word, and some implications.

Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, Robert Putnam, 2001Great stats on the 50-year deterioration of U.S. social life, with some ideas for solutions.

The Future of Media: Resistance and Reform in the 21st Century, Robert McChesney, 2005Great articles on massive media centralization and corporatization, and proposals for reform.

The Future of Ideas: The Nature of The Commons in a Connected World, Larry Lessig, 2002How large corporations are stifling public innovation & privatizing our online info commons.

The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel, 1998The politics of change, and conflicts over creativity, enterprise, and progress.

Cuture Jam: Reversing America’s Suicidal Consumer Binge, Calle Lasn, 2000. The power & addictions of brands, conformity, & overconsumption in a global corporate age.

Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, Richard Hersh et. al., 2006On the retreat from challenging and affordable higher ed as a 20th century "social contract."

Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge, Cass Sunstein, 2006How free and open online info, aggregation, and markets are accelerating global knowledge.

The Fourth Turning: Cycles of History and America’s Destiny, Strauss and Howe, 1997Historical generational (cycle) theory that the US is "on the verge of crisis." We shall see.


http://www.amazon.com/First-Measured-Century-Illustrated-1900-2000/dp/084474137X/

http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Image-Fall-Word/dp/0195098293

http://www.amazon.com/Bowling-Alone-Collapse-American-Community/dp/0743203046

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Media-Resistance-Reform-Century/dp/1583226796/

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Ideas-Commons-Connected-World/dp/0375726446/

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Its-Enemies-Creativity-Enterprise/dp/0684862697

http://www.amazon.com/Culture-Jam-Americas-Suicidal-Binge/dp/0688178057/

http://www.amazon.com/Culture-Jam-Americas-Suicidal-Binge/dp/0688178057/

http://www.amazon.com/Declining-Degrees-Higher-Education-Risk/dp/1403973164/

http://www.amazon.com/Infotopia-Many-Minds-Produce-Knowledge/dp/0195189280/

http://www.amazon.com/Infotopia-Many-Minds-Produce-Knowledge/dp/0195189280/

http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-William-Strauss/dp/0767900464/



Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innov., Learning, and PredictingTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 3 Essays

Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap... and Others Don't, Jim Collins, 2001Careful research featuring 11 big companies that manage to greatly improve, year after year.

Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers, 2003Classic on innovation diffusion, how new ideas and tech spread into a culture, or don't.

The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clay Christensen, 2003How companies manage "disruptive innovation," new tech that greatly changes the market.

The Art of the Start: A Guide for Anyone Starting Anything, Guy Kawasaki, 2004Great advice on planning, raising money, hiring, and starting any business project.

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki, 2005How groups can beat their best individuals for cognition, coordination, and cooperation.

The Fifth Discipline: The Art of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, 2006How to build continual learning, "the only sustainable competitive advantage," into any org.

The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, & Societies, Scott Page, 2007Why cognitive and experience diversity on your team beats groups of like-minded experts.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden, 2005How to use the futures tool of scenario planning (possible futures) to improve biz strategy.

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein, 1998Quant. probability has led to econometrics, insurance, forecasting, and better foresight.

Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted, Ian Ayres, 2007The recent creation of huge data sets lets analysts make previously impossible predictions.


http://www.amazon.com/Good-Great-Companies-Leap-Others/dp/0066620996

http://www.amazon.com/Diffusion-Innovations-5th-Everett-Rogers/dp/0743222091/

http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Business-Essentials/dp/0060521996/

http://www.amazon.com/Art-Start-Time-Tested-Battle-Hardened-Starting/dp/1591840562/

http://www.amazon.com/Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki/dp/0385721706/

http://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Discipline-Practice-Learning-Organization/dp/0385517254

http://www.amazon.com/Difference-Diversity-Creates-Schools-Societies/dp/0691128383/

http://www.amazon.com/Scenarios-Conversation-Kees-van-Heijden/dp/0470023686/

http://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-Risk/dp/0471295639/

http://www.amazon.co.uk/o/ASIN/0719564638/203-9971980-3070360

http://www.amazon.co.uk/o/ASIN/0719564638/203-9971980-3070360



Week 11 – Biz-Org Plans, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, & MetricsTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 3 Essays

Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present, Bob Johansen, 2007Practical ways for orgs to develop a "future sense" and improve their plans and strategy.

Out of Control: Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World, Kevin Kelly, 1995How our connected and complex world can be understood as a biological, evolving system.

Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century, Peter Schwartz, 2004A leading futurist considers both the expected and unpredictable future.

Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Don Tapscott, 2006The economic and social benefits of global online collaboration for people and companies.

Hard Facts, Half-Truths, & Total Nonsense: Evidence-Based Mgmt, Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006How to analyze business management practices using surveys, science, and evidence.

Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker, 2006Argues well against the idea that technology change is particularly fast or important today.

Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Steven Schnaars, 1989Collection of bad forecasts by think tanks, researchers, and politicians, w/ recommendations.

Inviting Disaster: Lessons from the Edge of Technology, James Chiles, 200250 famous catastrophes, and ways that they could have been prevented with better systems.

Future Search: Finding Common Ground in Orgs & Communities, Marvin Weisbord, 2000A future search conference helps organizational stakeholders work to chart a better future.

Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things, William McDonough, 2002Using industrial design to improve sustainability and "eco-effectiveness" in our world.


http://www.amazon.com/Get-There-Early-Sensing-Compete/dp/1576754405/

http://www.amazon.com/Out-Control-Biology-Machines-Economic/dp/0201483408/

http://www.amazon.com/Inevitable-Surprises-Peter-Schwartz/dp/0743239113

http://www.amazon.com/Wikinomics-Mass-Collaboration-Changes-Everything/dp/1591841380/

http://www.amazon.com/Wikinomics-Mass-Collaboration-Changes-Everything/dp/1591841380/

http://www.amazon.com/Facts-Dangerous-Half-Truths-Total-Nonsense/dp/1591398622/

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Hype-Myths-Technology-Change/dp/1576753700/

http://www.amazon.com/MEGAMISTAKES-Forecasting-Rapid-Technological-Change/dp/0029279526/

http://www.amazon.com/MEGAMISTAKES-Forecasting-Rapid-Technological-Change/dp/0029279526/

http://www.amazon.com/Inviting-Disaster-Lessons-Edge-Technology/dp/0066620821

http://www.amazon.com/Future-Search-Marvin-R-Weisbord/dp/1576750817

http://www.amazon.com/Cradle-Remaking-Way-Make-Things/dp/0865475873/



Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and VisioningTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays

Natural Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Intelligence, Andy Clark, 2004Why you are already a "cyborg" and will get even more intimately connected to all your tech.

The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, John Maxwell, 2007Qualities and habits that make you the kind of person whose ideas others want to follow.

Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind: Intelligence Increases When You Think Less, Guy Claxton, 2000Logic and reason aren't enough. We need slow, intuitive, nonlinear thinking just as much.

Authentic Happiness: Positive Psychology and Your Potential, Martin Seligman, 2002From the founder of science of positive psychology. How to thrive, love, and be happy.

Finding Flow: Psych. of Engagement with Everyday Life, Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi, 1998Tips on creating flow: a psychological state of ease, focus, happiness, and productivity.

Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudosci. and Superstitions, Michael Shermer, 2002Shows the value of skepticism and evidence-based thinking to counter superstition.

When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a UFO Group, Diane Tumminia, 2005Exposes = how wishful thinking causes us to deny reality. We all do this, to some extent.

No Logo: No Space, No Choice, No Jobs, Naomi Klein, 2002Brands now dominate public life, narrow our choices and our thinking. Tips on resisting.

50 Facts That Should Change the World, Jessica Williams, 2004Some fascinating stats, many addressable by technology. Which ones will we deal with?

Fifty-Two Simple Ways to Make a Difference, Paul Simon, 2004Small things are really the big things, in the end. Some powerful ways to be a better person.


http://www.amazon.com/Natural-Born-Cyborgs-Technologies-Future-Intelligence/dp/0195177517/



http://www.amazon.com/21-Indispensable-Qualities-Leader-Becoming/dp/0785289046


http://www.amazon.com/Authentic-Happiness-Psychology-Potential-Fulfillment/dp/0743222989/

http://www.amazon.com/Finding-Flow-Psychology-Engagement-Masterminds/dp/0465024114/

http://www.amazon.com/People-Believe-Weird-Things-Pseudoscience/dp/0805070893/



http://www.amazon.com/When-Prophecy-Never-Fails-Flying-Saucer/dp/0195176758/

http://www.amazon.com/No-Logo-Space-Choice-Jobs/dp/0312421435/

http://www.amazon.com/Facts-That-Should-Change-World/dp/0972952969/

http://www.amazon.com/Fifty-Two-Simple-Ways-Make-Difference/dp/0806646780/



Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and PredictingTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays

Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, K. Anders Ericsson, 2006"Natural" talent is quite overrated. Experts are mostly made, not born. Anyone can be one.

The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey, 2004Each habit takes years to master, but becoming an expert in them is a key to personal power.

Our Inner Ape: A Leading Primatologist Explains Who We Are, Frans De Waal, 2006Human nature is a blend of chimpanzee and bonobo, of competition and cooperation.

Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman, 2007How the choice, care, and feeding of our relationships determines our intelligence.

The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil, Philip Zimbardo, 2007How situations, environments, can change our ethics. Why our environment matters.

The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out as They Do, Judith Rich Harris, 1998Shows the huge effect of our peer groups on our success in life. Choose your friends wisely!

Hold on to Your Kids: Why Parents Need to Matter More than Peers, Neufeld and Mate, 2006Compulsive peer attachment hurts individuality, creativity, intelligence. How to fix that.

Building a Bridge to the 18th Century: How the Past Helps the Future, Neil Postman, 2000Bringing Enlightenment values (intellect, history, logic, rhetoric) back into the 21st century.

The Pathfinder: How to Choose or Change Your Career, Nicholas Lore, 1998By goalsetting, list making, & other techniques, find your ideal career and make it happen.

Do What You Are: Discover Your Career thru Personality Type, Paul &Barbara Tieger, 2001Using personality profiling to find industries, careers, and occ’s that match your strengths.


http://www.amazon.com/Cambridge-Handbook-Expertise-Expert-Performance/dp/0521600812

http://www.amazon.com/Habits-Highly-Effective-People/dp/0743269519

http://www.amazon.com/Our-Inner-Ape-Primatologist-Explains/dp/1594481962/

http://www.amazon.com/Social-Intelligence-Science-Human-Relationships/dp/055338449X

http://www.amazon.com/Lucifer-Effect-Understanding-Good-People/dp/1400064112/

http://www.amazon.com/Nurture-Assumption-Children-Turn-They/dp/0684857073

http://www.amazon.com/Hold-Your-Kids-Parents-Matter/dp/0375760288/

http://www.amazon.com/Building-Bridge-18th-Century-Improve/dp/0375701273/

http://www.amazon.com/Pathfinder-Choose-Lifetime-Satisfaction-Success/dp/0684823993/

http://www.amazon.com/What-You-Are-Personality-Type-Revised/dp/0316880655/



Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and NegotiatingTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays

Everything's an Argument - With Readings, Andrea Lunsford et. al., 2006An excellent and visual introduction to argument and rhetoric, foundational skills for all of us.

Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Richard Neustadt, 1986How to best use historical knowledge to improve decision making. A classic.

How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Reason in Life, Thomas Gilovich, 1993The limits of logic and psychology in understanding our complex, contingent world.

Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond, 2002Systematic approaches to making better-considered choices. Lots of great case examples.

The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, Barry Schwartz, 2005Explains how overanalysis and abundance can rob us of flexibility and satisfaction.

How Full is Your Bucket: Positive Strategies for Work and Life, Rath and Clifton, 2007Explores the foundation of social intelligence: creating positive social interactions.

Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Roger Fisher, 1991Very readable text on achieving win-win negotiations in workplace and home.

Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, Douglas Stone, 2000When we put off the most important conversations, everyone suffers. How to fix that.

What You Can Change & What You Can’t: A Guide to Self Improvmt, Martin Seligman, 2007Common psychological disorders and how to self-treat them. Practical personal psychology.

Never Eat Alone: Success, One Relationship at a Time, Keith Ferrazzi, 2005The importance of defining who you are, trusting others, and networking for a clear objective.


http://www.amazon.com/Everythings-Argument-Readings-Andrea-Lunsford/dp/0312447507

http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Time-History-Decision-Makers/dp/0029227917/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0029117062/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767908864/002-1395475-0301632

http://www.amazon.com/Paradox-Choice-Why-More-Less/dp/0060005696

http://www.amazon.com/How-Full-Your-Bucket-Educators/dp/159562001X/

http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Yes-Negotiating-Agreement-Without/dp/0140157352/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/014028852X/

http://www.amazon.com/What-You-Change-Cant-Self-Improvement/dp/1400078407/

http://www.amazon.com/What-You-Change-Cant-Self-Improvement/dp/1400078407/

http://www.amazon.com/Never-Eat-Alone-Secrets-Relationship/dp/0385512058/



Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and MeasuringTen Books to Consider for Your Unit 4 Essays

One Small Step Can Change Your Life: The Kaizen Way, Robert Maurer, 2004Face fears that block change by making small, measurable steps in the right direction.

The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Inner Strength, Karen Reivich, 2003A key empowering habit of mind. How to keep perspective, not overeact, and bounce back.

The Survivor Personality: How to Get Better at Handling Adversity, Al Siebert, 1996Why some crumble under pressure while others get stronger, and how do the latter.

The Power of Full Engagement: A Personal Energy Mgmt System, Tony Schwartz, 2004Energy management complements time, space, money, knowledge, and process mgmt.

Fooled by Randomness: The Role of Chance in Life and Markets, Nassim Taleb, 2005Humans are pattern recognizers. We see patterns where none exists. How to reduce that.

The Seven Stages of Money Maturity, George Kinder, 2000Stages of psych development in relation to money. Which of these are you presently "in"?

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, 2003The classic in value investing. A book for foresighted people with long-term plans.

Socially Responsible Investing: Making a Difference & Making Money, Amy Domini, 2000How to put your money where your values are. Investing as a way to improve the world.

Journal to the Self: Twenty-Two Paths to Personal Growth, Kathleen Adams, 1990Well-regarded book on journaling as a tool for self-understanding and personal mastery.

CrazyBusy: Strategies For Handling Your Fast-Paced Life, Edward Hallowell, 2006How to manage culturally induced ADD, 24/7 accessibility, and modern expectations.


http://www.amazon.com/Small-Step-Change-Your-Life/dp/0761129235/

http://www.amazon.com/Resilience-Factor-Finding-Strength-Overcoming/dp/0767911911/

http://www.amazon.com/Survivor-Personality-Al-Siebert/dp/0399522301

http://www.amazon.com/Power-Full-Engagement-Managing-Performance/dp/0743226755/

http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0812975219/

http://www.amazon.com/Seven-Stages-Money-Maturity-Understanding/dp/0440508339/

http://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Collins-Business-Essentials/dp/0060555661/

http://www.amazon.com/Socially-Responsible-Investing-Making-Difference/dp/0793141737

http://www.amazon.com/Journal-Self-Twenty-Two-Personal-Self-Understanding/dp/0446390380/

http://www.amazon.com/CrazyBusy-Overstretched-Overbooked-Strategies-Fast-Paced/dp/0345482441

http://www.amazon.com/CrazyBusy-Overstretched-Overbooked-Strategies-Fast-Paced/dp/0345482441

Some Sample SlidesFrom FD Class Presentations and Discussions



“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity Development (Arranged “Fastest First”)

Nanotech (nanoscale science and technology)

Infotech (computing, comm., and engrg. technology)

Sociotech (org. and social technology)

Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors)

Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)

It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field.Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless

It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies.

Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. First and second mover advantages.



Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech

“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)

The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD



Buckminster Fuller: MEST Compression as Ephemeralization (Our ‘Weightless’ Economy)

In Critical Path, 1981, Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed".

In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance”

This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.

In Nine Chains to the Moon, 1938, poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage." (e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (single electrons, photons, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.



MEST Efficiency Implication:Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change

Technological (dominant since 1920-50)

“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)

“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)

“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)

1. These levels have reorganized to “fastest first.”2. We see more pluralism (a network property) as we rise in level.

Examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.

3. Where is Society here? On all three levels. Can we move moer human aspirations and culture to the top of this list? Can we create a global network of tech shapers, early adopters, and critics?



MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves

Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery What Might This Enable?

80% recharge in 60 seconds

Two orders of magnitude jump in capacity.

99% duty after 1,000 cycles

Reliable at temp extremes

Cost competitive

New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson



Farming and Cities are Killing the Oceans

Massive fertilizer use and city effluent runoff adds massive nutrients to ocean, causing an explosion of primitive organisms. This “rise of slime” is killing off the larger species.

See: “Altered Oceans” Series, LA Times, 2006 http://tinyurl.com/hql49



Altered Oceans: A Little-Known Global Trend

90% of global stocks of tuna, cod, and other big fish have disappeared in the last 50 years.

97% of elkhorn and staghorn coral off Florida has disappeared since 1975.

150 oxygen depleted “dead zones” exist on global coastlines next to cities today. 10 existed in 1950.

75% of Southern California’s kelp forests have disappeared in the last 50 years.

650 Grey Whales have washed up sick or dead on the West Coast of N. America in the last seven years.

Altered Oceans (5 part series), Los Angeles Times, 2006.



More Dead Zones, More Acidic Conditions

Known “dead zones” in 2005: 150




Particularly Strong Sign of a Global Problem (Since 1988): Less Fish (total tonnage), Even Less Fish (per capita)


Not enough fish in the sea, Kenneth Weiss, LA Times, 26 Nov 2006



Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982

See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03

Information/Services/Network SocietySociety of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)

Network 1.0“McJobs” & Service65% of Jobs, 2000’s

Network 2.0New Middle Class40% of Jobs, 2030’s

Network 3.0Consolidation Again15% of Jobs, 2060’s

Products/Manufacturing Society Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)

Manufacturing 1.0Exploitive Jobs50% of Jobs, 1900’s

Manufacturing 2.0New Middle Class35% of Jobs, 1950’s

Manufacturing 3.0Offshoring/Globalizing14% of Jobs, 2000’s

Resources/Agricultural Society Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)

Agriculture 1.0Subsistence Jobs80% of Jobs, 1820’s

Agriculture 2.0Family Farms50% of Jobs, 1920’s

Agriculture 3.0Corporate Farms2% of Jobs, 1990’s



What Capitalist Phases May Come Next?The Financial Economy

The Financial Economy (Money Supply, Finance, Stocks, Investments)

– 47 trillion annual gross world product– 55 trillion money supply (M3), growing at

2X or more GDP, an informal tax on economy. U.S. Govt (state, local, federal, military, contractors) employs 13% of U.S. society from formal and informal taxes.

– 10 trillion ann. goods and services trading– 100 trillion ann. stocks and bonds trading– 980 trillion annual currency trading volume

Some equitocracy goals – Government Reform & Accountability– Balanced Government Budgets– Solvent Social Insurance– Corporate Reform & Accountability– Progressive Corporate Taxation– Progressive Income & Asset Taxation– Consumer Trust Accounts

Data360.org; Global Money Supply, Mike Hewitt, 31 Jul 2007; Wikipedia (GWP)



Long-Term: Automation and the Voluntary Future

Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040

Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.)

225,900 298,500 321,900

Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900

Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work

43,800 176,100 246,000

Prediction: We will see a continued strong increase in voluntary activities in all first world economies. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.

Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist and founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)



Innovation, Patents, and Policyin Large vs. Small Companies

Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless:

a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patentsb. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failingc. Existing product lines are presently being threatenedd. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence)

Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.

Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).

Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait”

Some Solutions:Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrationsLower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industryMandate tough and increasing performance standardsLitigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.Promote consumer information and informed buying decisionsPromote buying consortiums based on performance specsPromote corporate transparencyPromote public stock ownership

Toyota’s 1/XConcept Car (2007)

1/3 the weight 2X the fuel efficiency

of the Prius



Tipping Point for Car Ownership:Why Green Cars Matter

Global auto sales by all carmakers: 65 million in 2005Toyota’s Official Sales Estimate: 73 million cars in 2010Presently slow growth.

Wildcard: If ultra-low cost ($1,000-$2,000) cars and microfinancing are brought to market soon in emerging nations, the global car market might begin to grow as fast as 50% year. For many years in a row.

Wildcard Projection assuming 50% annual sales growth starting in 2010, from 73 million, for just five years: 553 million cars sold in 2015

Total Potential Cars Sold, 2010-2015 (or 2010-2020?): 1,514 million cars

Global Car Saturation could occur in a period as short as ten years, locking us into the energy efficiency, pollution, and safety standards of those particular automobiles for the next 20 years (avg. car lifetime).

Conclusion: These need to be clean and efficient cars, or we may suffer a real global energy and pollution crisis.

Are governments involved in slowing the rollout of today’s machines, and/or setting minimum standards? The record is not encouraging.

Tata Motor’splanned $2,000“people’s car”



IP Regulation and the Tech Innovation Rate: Examples from Bose and Microvision

Innovation diffusion can be prevented due to overly restrictive IP (intellectual property) policy, often due to the philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation (Amar Bose, etc.). IP law reform can change this, but only with foresight and political will!



Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths

Examples:

Secularism (human-derived values)

Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths)

Rationality (logic+empiricism)

Self Expression

Subjective Well Being

Quality of Life

Sustainability

World Awareness

Future Orientation

Political Moderation

Interpersonal Trust

Casualness

worldvaluessurvey.orgIt may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.



Average US literacy scores are projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.

America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007

Less Proficient More Proficient

A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality

In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 LiteracyBy 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category



Prediction/Idea/Decision Marketsand the Wisdom of Crowds

Aggregation of opinions is the new frontier for prediction/ innovation/ decisionmaking. Google realized there was hidden opinion order in an apparently chaotic net. PageRank captured that order, created much more relevant search.

Avoids bias. Michael Jensen, HBS, “Forecasting is paying people to lie.”

Sample Internal Markets:

Eli Lilly. Drug efficacy and market size.Siemens. Software project length.Google. Over 200 markets (experimental)Microsoft. Software development.Hewlett-Packard. Sales projections.

Three Requirements:

1. Cognitive Diversity (“The Difference”)2. Independence3. Aggregation Tools (still primitive)

Real Money Markets: Play Money/Reputation Markets:



Cognitive Diversity in Small Groups

Diversity and Optimality (1998). Lu Hong, Scott E. Page, Dept. of Econ, Syracuse U, and Dept. of Econ., U. of Iowa, 27 p.

A general [computational] model of diverse problem solvers of limited abilities. We use this model to derive two main results: (1) a collection of diverse, bounded problem solvers can locate optimal solutions to difficult problems and (2) a collection of problem solvers of diverse abilities tends to jointly outperform a collection of high ability problem solvers, where a problem solver's ability equals her expected individual performance.

See also: Symbiotic Intelligence ProjectNorman Johnson, LANLhttp://ishi.lanl.gov/

Diversity is as important as ability for:• Poorly defined problems (nonlinear

optimization, prediction, horiz. scanning…)• High degrees of freedom problems • Innovation• What else?



Experts versus Groups, By Problem Type




Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change

““Experimentation”Experimentation”Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation,Chaos, Contingency,Early Species Radiation(Mostly Nonadapted)Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation

Development

‘Right Hand’ of Change

Evolution

‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’

““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Main Actor: EnvironmentMEST Compression,Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures,Positive Sumness/Synergy,Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy

““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves,Modularity, Responsiveness,Plasticity, Intelligence(Local Adaptation)Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation

Evo Devo

(Intersection)




Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures

Some Key Conjectures:

Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.Development is intelligence/information preservation.

Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.

Evolution drives most unique local patterns.Development drives most predictable global patterns.

Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.

The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both.

Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims. Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.




Evolution vs. Development:Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe

Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:

Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same.

The Lesson: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes.Both are fundamental to universal complexity.




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.

Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political IssuesEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues

Democrats areEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political IssuesDevo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues




Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age

• AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms• Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.• Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm




Robo sapiens is on the Horizon

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2

(Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down)

“Huey and Louey”

Aibo Soccer




IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words

GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-humanquery length is 11 words.

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP may as well.




Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/AgentInterface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?

Ananova, 2002“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality.Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information inface-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.




Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age

A Coevolution between Saturating Humansand Accelerating Technology:

A time when computers “speak our language.”A time when our technologies are very

responsive to our needs and desires.A time when humans and machines are

intimately connected, and always improving each other.

A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”




Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification




Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.




Valuecosm 2040:Our Plural-Positive Political Future

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s

- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media




A Closing Visual:Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.

Selling and Teaching Foresight Development Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators World Future...

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