Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

33
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. KBW Insurance Conference September 10, 2015

Transcript of Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Page 1: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Selective Insurance Group, Inc.

KBW Insurance Conference

September 10, 2015

Page 2: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Forward Looking Statements

Certain statements in this report, including information incorporated by reference, are “forward-looking statements” as that term is

defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”). The PSLRA provides a safe harbor under the Securities Act

of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for forward-looking statements. These statements relate to our intentions, beliefs,

projections, estimations or forecasts of future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks,

uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry's actual results, levels of activity, or performance to be materially

different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking

statements by use of words such as "may," "will," "could," "would," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "target," "project," "intend,"

"believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential," "pro forma," "seek," "likely" or "continue" or other comparable terminology. These

statements are only predictions, and we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. We undertake no

obligation, other than as may be required under the federal securities laws, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking

statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Factors, that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected, forecasted or estimated by us in forward-looking

statements are discussed in further detail in Selective’s public filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

These risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a continually changing business environment, and new risk factors emerge

from time-to-time. We can neither predict such new risk factors nor can we assess the impact, if any, of such new risk factors on our

businesses or the extent to which any factor or combination of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those

expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this report. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the

forward-looking events discussed in this report might not occur.

2

Page 3: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Strategic Overview

Gregory Murphy

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Page 4: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Selective’s Value-Added Approach

2014

NPW Standard

Commercial Lines

76% Standard Personal

Lines

16% Excess &

Surplus Lines

8%

Super-regional P&C Carrier with long history of financial strength, superior execution and

disciplined growth

- Rated “A” or higher by A.M. Best for 85 consecutive years

- Successful execution of 3-year profitability improvement plan in 2014

Unique “High-tech, High-touch” operating model across diversified mix of strategic business units

- Focused on maintaining strong relationships with independent agents

Investing in profitable growth through agency expansion, strategic underwriting initiatives,

expansion of small business team, and claims management.

4

Page 5: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

High-Tech

Easy-to-use agency technology

Investing in omni-channel customer experience

Leader in modeling and business intelligence

5

Page 6: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

High-Touch

Field Model

Agency Management Specialists

Claims Management Specialists

Safety Management Specialists

Personal Lines

Marketing Reps

Small Business Team

Corporate

Underwriters

Technology/

Systems Support Regional

Underwriting Teams

Responsive, field-based model

Supported by regional &

corporate expertise

Focus on customer experience

6

Page 7: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Continuous Improvement

7

Claims Initiatives

Centralized handling of Workers’ Compensation claims

Strategic case management and escalation model

Enhanced property oversight and management

Fraud detection and recovery model

Implementation of Claims Outcome Advisor (COA)

Underwriting Initiatives

Workers’ Compensation mix improvement to lower hazard grade

Expansion of small business teams

Addition of 12 new AMS territories

Targeted segments and mix improvement

Page 8: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Continuous Improvement:

Strategic Business Unit Diversification

43%

19%

16%

22% Contractors

Community & PublicServices

Manufacturing

Mercantile Service

34%

23%

18%

24%

Percentages based on Direct Premiums Written

Improved mix of business

2008 2014

8

Page 9: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

2015

Guidance*

Loss Trend Expense Underwriting /

Claims

Earned Rate Calendar Year

Reserve

Development

2014

Continuous Improvement:

Workers Compensation Improvement

Statutory Combined Ratio

*Guidance for full-year results (provided as of September 9, 2015)

2% (3)%

(5)% (2)%

97%

110%

(5)%

9

Page 10: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Successfully Execute Profitability Plan

98.4%

97.3%

94.8%

92.5%

90.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Guidance*

Overall Statutory Combined Ratio excluding Catastrophe Losses

10 *Guidance for full-year results (provided as of September 9, 2015)

Page 11: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Pricing Strategy: Balancing Rate and Retention

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q 4Q 2Q

Ren

ewal

Pu

re P

rice

R

etentio

n

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Standard Commercial Lines

2015

11

Page 12: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Pricing Strategy: Highly Granular Pricing Capability

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

AboveAverage

Average BelowAverage

Low Very Low

Po

int o

f Ren

ewal R

etentio

n

Ren

ewal

Pu

re P

rice

Retention Group

Standard Commercial Lines

June 2015 YTD

% of Premium 54.8% 25.6% 10.4% 6.1% 3.1%

12

Page 13: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

New business

production capacity

exceeds $400M

Growth Opportunity:

Standard Commercial Lines

1.

2.

3.

4.

Small Business: Expanded underwriting authority

for regional small business teams; straight-through

processing

Adding new agents to achieve 25% market

share representation in a state

Increasing share of wallet within

agency plant with a goal of 12%

Middle Market: Addition of agency management specialists

throughout the footprint

13

Page 14: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Growth Opportunity:

Excess and Surplus Lines

Increase wholesale agent share of wallet

New online quoting capability

New business incentives to retail partners

14

16% 16%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2013 2014 June 2015 YTD

NPW Growth Rate

Page 15: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Standard Personal Lines

Focus on profitability improvement through rate and targeted underwriting actions

The Selective EdgeSM product

- Targets consultative buyers across the wealth spectrum who shop on overall

value and service

- Combined auto and home policies

- July 1 enhancement rollout

Diminishing deductible

Accident forgiveness

New car replacement

Selective Choice replacement cost

15

Page 16: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

♦ Long track record of financial strength, superior execution and disciplined growth

♦ Unique “High-tech, High-touch” operating model with strong agency relationships

♦ Investing in profitable growth through agency expansion, strategic underwriting initiatives,

expansion of small business team, claims management and omni-channel.

♦ Positioned for growth in Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and Excess &

Surplus Lines

Selective’s Differentiators

16

14.5% 13.3%

11.3%

7.8% 7.9% 7.7%

2% 3%

8.4%

10.3% 9.8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015YTD

Ret

urn

%

Operating Return on Equity

Hurricane

Irene

Hurricane

Sandy

Page 17: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Financial Strength

Dale Thatcher

EVP, Chief Financial Officer

Page 18: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

History of Financial Strength

$22.95 $0.56*

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June2015

Book Value Per Share Dividend Per Share

Long-Term Shareholder Value Creation

*Annualized indicated dividend 18

♦ AM Best financial strength rating of

“A” superior

♦ Robust risk and return strategy

♦ Disciplined reserving practices

♦ Focus on shareholder value creation

Page 19: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Robust Risk and Return Strategy

Low to

Medium

Hazard

Writer

Conservative Reinsurance Program

Conservative Investment Portfolio

Superior Management Information

& Analytical Capabilities

Higher than Average

Operational Leverage

1.5x NPW to Surplus

3.8x Invested Assets to Equity

As of June 30, 2015 19

Page 20: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Conservative CAT Reinsurance

Reduced gross PML through CAT

management actions

Exhausts at approximately 1-in-273

year event

Average reinsurer rating “A+”

$196 million

collateralized

2015 Property Catastrophe

Treaty

Renewed January 1, 2015

$685M in excess of $40M retention

2%

6%

28%

4% 5%

Low Mean High 2013 2014

% of Equity at Risk 1 in 250 Year Event

Selective** Insurer Composite*

*Source: AonBenfield 2013 CAT Risk Tolerance Disclosure Trend Analysis

(Composite of 20 insurers who disclosed actual or target PML)

**Blended Model Results (RMS & AIR) 20

Page 21: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

75

85

95

105

115

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Conservative Investment Portfolio

After-Tax Net Investment Income

($ in Millions)

GU

IDA

NC

E*

As of June 30, 2015

“AA-” average credit quality

3.7 year duration (incl. short-term)

Investment Leverage of 3.8x

Equities 5%

Alternatives

2% Short-term

3%

Fixed Income

90%

21 *Guidance for full-year results (provided as of September 9, 2015)

Page 22: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Reserve Strength

Disciplined reserving practices

Quarterly actuarial reserve reviews

2 evaluations per year by independent actuary

1.4%

3.6%

Selective

Peer Average*

Standard Deviation (2005 – 2014) of Reserve Development

Points on the Combined Ratio

*Source: SNL Financial, Statutory Filings

Peers include CINF, THG, STFC, UFCS, CNA, HIG, TRV, and WRB 22

9 consecutive years of favorable development

Page 23: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

29.0%

21.1%

17.2%

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tota

l Ret

urn

%

SIGI S&P 500 S&P Prop/Cas

Total Return: SIGI vs. Benchmarks

As of September 4, 2015

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

23

Page 24: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Loss Trend 2015 Ex-CAT

Guidance

Expense Calendar Year

Reserve Development 2014 Accident

Year Ex-CAT Earned Rate Underwriting /

Claims

2015 Guidance

4 points of catastrophe losses

3% - 3.5% overall renewal pure price

24

2015 Overall Ex-Cat Statutory Combined Ratio Plan

90%

95.3%

0.2%

(2.5)% (1.7)%

0.8% (2.1)%

$95 to $100 million of after-tax investment income

58 million weighted average shares outstanding

*Guidance for full-year results (provided as of September 9, 2015)

Page 25: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Selective’s Differentiators

Long track record of financial strength, superior execution and disciplined growth

Unique “High-tech, High-touch” operating model with strong agency relationships

Investing in profitable growth through agency expansion, strategic underwriting initiatives,

expansion of small business team, claims management and omni-channel.

Positioned for growth in Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and

Excess & Surplus Lines

Higher operating leverage: 1 point of combined ratio = 1 point of ROE

Higher investment leverage: 3.8x invested assets to stockholders’ equity

= ~8% investment ROE

25

Page 26: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Financial Highlights 2011– Q2 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

Statutory NPW Growth 7.0% 12.2% 8.7% 4.1% 8.7% 10.9%

Operating EPS* $0.38 $0.58 $1.65 $2.17 $0.48 $0.62

Net Income per Share* $0.40 $0.68 $1.87 $2.47 $0.69 $0.58

Dividend per Share $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.53 $0.14 $0.14

Book Value per Share* $19.45 $19.77 $20.63 $22.54 $23.11 $22.95

Statutory Premiums to Surplus 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Invested Assets/Stockholder’s Equity* 3.89 3.97 3.97 3.77 3.72 $3.76

Return on Average Equity* 2.1% 3.5% 9.5% 11.7% 12.3% 10.3%

Operating Return on Average Equity* 2.0% 3.0% 8.4% 10.3% 8.5% 11.0%

Statutory Combined Ratio - Total 106.7% 103.5% 97.5% 95.7% 93.0% 93.5%

- Standard Commercial Lines 103.9% 103.0% 97.1% 95.5% 89.7% 90.1%

- Standard Personal Lines 117.3% 100.7% 96.9% 94.5% 105.1% 105.4%

- Excess and Surplus Lines 131.3% 118.8% 102.9% 99.2% 102.1% 102.7%

GAAP Combined Ratio - Total* 107.2% 104.0% 97.8% 95.8% 94.5% 94.1%

- Standard Commercial Lines* 104.3% 103.3% 97.4% 95.7% 91.8% 90.7%

- Standard Personal Lines* 117.8% 101.3% 97.1% 94.4% 103.4% 106.5%

- Excess and Surplus Lines* 270.2% 124.7% 103.0% 99.7% 104.1% 103.6%

*Historical values (2011) have been restated to reflect impact of deferred policy acquisition cost accounting change

Page 27: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

159

123

227

336

233

40

90

140

190

240

290

340

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Operating Cash Flow ($ in millions)

8%

14%

Cash Flow as % of NPW

19%

12%

11%

YTD June 2015: $166M

Page 28: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Investment Income – After-tax

111 111

100 101 104

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

($ in millions)

YTD June 2015: $46M

Page 29: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Insurance Operations Productivity

($ in 000s)

%

*Excludes Excess & Surplus Lines **Expense ratio excludes 0.4 point benefit from self-insured group sale

761

791

842

908 908

945

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

350

550

750

950

2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014** 6/30/15YTD

NPW per Employee Statutory Expense Ratio

Page 30: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Standard Commercial Lines Pricing

-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ren

ew

al P

ure

Pri

ce

Selective CLIPS

Industry Source: Towers Watson Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey

Page 31: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

93.3 93.8 95.0

96.4

99.3

97.5 97.5 98.0

95.3

92.8

85.6

0.3 1.2 0.9

2.1

0.5 3.3

6.4 5.0

1.7

2.7

4.3

80

85

90

95

100

105%

103.9

Impact of Catastrophe Losses

Combined Ratio excluding CATS

Statutory Combined Ratios

93.6 95.0 95.9

98.5

99.8 100.8

Standard Commercial Lines Profitability

103.0

*Includes impact of reinstatement premium on catastrophe reinsurance program as a result of Hurricane Sandy Some amounts may not foot due to rounding

97.1

95.5

89.9

Page 32: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

General Liability 31%

Auto 24%

BOP 6%

Bonds 1%

Other 1%

Commercial Property

18%

Workers Compensation

19%

Premium by Line of Business 2014 Standard Commercial Lines Net Premium Written

Page 33: Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - Home, Auto, Business ...

Long-Term Shareholder Value Creation

16.44 17.87

18.82

15.81

17.80 18.97 19.45 19.77

20.63

22.54 22.95

0.40 0.44

0.49

0.52

0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

0.52

0.53 0.56

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15

Book Value Dividend

Per

Sh

are

*Annualized indicated dividend Note: Book value restated for change in deferred policy acquisition costs (2005-2006 Estimated)

*