Security Situation Sahel ساحل. Introduction Before the current French military intervention,...
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Transcript of Security Situation Sahel ساحل. Introduction Before the current French military intervention,...
Security Situation
Sahel
ساحل
Introduction
• Before the current French military intervention, insurgent control over northern Mali had boosted jihadist groups across the Sahel region
• Jihadist alliances have fractured, suggesting a limited life cycle for jihadist violence in the southern Sahel
• Underlying religious and cultural dynamics also suggest a limited life cycle for jihadist activity
The Sahel Region
The Sahel Region
Groups Present and Objectives
• Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)• Overthrow of North African ‘apostate’ governments
• Mouvement pour l’Unicité du Jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest (MUJAO)• Direct off-shoot of AQIM
• Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA)• Secession of the north of Mali, known as Azawad
• Ansar al-Din• Establishment of a regional Islamist state in northern Mali and
impose Sharia law
• Al-Mourabitoune • Enforce Sharia law from ‘The Nile to the Atlantic Ocean’
Groups Present and Objectives
• Boko Haram
‘Jama’atul Ahlu Sunna Lidda’Awati wal Jihad’ or ‘People Committed to the Prophet’s Teachings for
Propagation and Jihad’ or‘Western Education is a Sin’
Boko Haram seeks a restoration of a caliphate, modeled after the Sokoto kingdom, over Nigeria.
• Al-Shabab‘Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen’ (HSM)or Youth Movement
Risks – Assets - Projects
Immediate effect of French intervention:
• Attacks have receded in Mali, Niger and Nigeria
• AQIM and other jihadist groups’ capability to conduct cross-border attacks on Mali’s immediate neighbours have been largely reduced
• French assets and personnel are still at risk of attack and kidnap across the region
Risks – Personnel -Travellers
• Foreign nationals are still at risk of kidnap in northern Burkina Faso, western Niger and south western Mali
• Kidnap risks are highest to individuals in transit
• Most will be for ransom, but French and European citizens would be at risk of execution
Update January 2014
Intelligence community is still on alert
• Observing new redeployment of armed groups in mountainous north-east Mali (Adrar – Ifoghas) and Sahara Tibesti.
• Possible violent reaction of Jihadists. High profile targets
• New group assembling these combatants (Al Mourabitoune)
• Combatants transiting through the south of Libya, west of Sudan or through Mauritania
• Having seen 30% of their forces destroyed radical combatants are looking for revenge
• France now has 2500 troops deployed in Mali
• Areva on RED alert
MERCI
THANK YOU