Security Risks of Nuclear and Radioactive Material at ...
Transcript of Security Risks of Nuclear and Radioactive Material at ...
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Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin
Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Security Risks of Nuclear and Radioactive Material at Research Reactors
Dave Ek, USA
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The term “Research Reactor” represents a wide
variety of non-power reactors
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Purpose
The purpose of the paper is: 1. To discuss the influence and application of
international security recommendations/guidanceon Research Reactor and Associated Facilities (RRAF)
2. To discuss the risk management at RRAF, how riskis commonly estimated, and some potential issues with this estimation; and
3. Summarize on-going work to develop an approach to comprehensively estimate nuclear security risk to address these concerns
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Security at Research Reactors
• Unauthorized Removal or
Sabotage
• Category I, II, III
• URC, HRC
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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Security at Research Reactors
The security concern posed
by Research Reactors is
commonly represented by:
• the category of nuclear
material for theft
OR
• the thermal power of the
reactor for sabotage
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive RiskEstimating
Security RiskRisk ManagementApplication of Guidance
Approach for Comprehensive Risk
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Security at Research Reactors
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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Security at Research Reactors
Irradiated
Fuel
Irradiated
Uranium
Targets
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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Nuclear Security Risk at RRAF Research Reactors are commonly co-located with other
research or production facilities, such as:
Waste Treatment and Interim Storage
Fuel Fabrication
Radioisotope production
Gamma Sterilization Sources: Wikipedia
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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Guidance on Risk Management
Objectives and Essential Elements of Nuclear
Security Regime
“…nuclear security regime uses risk informed
approaches… which take into account:”• threat
• attractiveness and vulnerability of material
• characteristics of material
• consequences
Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and
Nuclear Facilities
“Risk can be managed by:”• reducing threat
• improving security effectiveness
• reducing consequences
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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Security Risk
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
R = P * C
R= PA * (1- PEFF) * C
Probability of
Successful
Attack
Probability of
AttackConsequence
s of AttackRisk
C
1-PEFF
PA
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Target Attractiveness
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
Material
Form
Material
Isotope
Material
Purity
Portability
Avail-
ability
Ease of
Initiation
Security
Deterrent
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Current Estimation of Security Risk at RRAF
The equation:
Risk = PA * (1-PE) * C
Applied for a specific inventory/target,
• Usually only the highest consequence inventory
• Estimate generally becomes the defacto security risk
for site
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
Attractiveness?
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Security Concerns at a RRAF
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
Cat I
HEU
Research
Reactor
Cat II HEU
Interim StorageCat II HEU
Fuel Fab
>>Cat 1 Rad
Isotope Production
>>Cat 1 Rad
Gamma Sterilization
Cat 2 Rad
Waste Processing
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Security Concerns at a RRAF
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
Cat III LEU
Interim StorageCat III LEU
Fuel Fab
>>Cat 1 Rad
Isotope Production>>Cat 1 Rad
Gamma SterilizationCat 2 Rad
Waste Processing
>>Cat 1 RadCat II LEU
Research Reactor
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Developing an Estimate of Comprehensive
Security Risk at RRAF
• Diverse Targets
• Consequences not
comparable
• Different
Attractiveness
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
• Proper Security
Resource Allocation
• Effective, Cost-
Efficient Security
System
• Increased Relevance
of Material Security vs
Risk
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IAEA CRP Project
• Develop a Methodology to Estimate Comprehensive
Security Risk for a RRAF
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
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IAEA CRP Project
Identify
Possible
Targets
Estimate
Consequence
Severity of
each
Estimate Risk
of each target
Combine Risks
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
Normalize
Consequences
Weighted for
Attractiveness
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Summary
Security Risk at a RRAF is complex due to the diverse targets, consequences, and attractiveness
Current Approaches may not sufficiently estimate Site-wide security risk at RRAF
CRP in place to attempt to develop an approach
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Risk Components
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk
RISK
Threat Vulnerability Consequence
Likelihood
Security System Effectiveness?
Target Attractiveness
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Comprehensive Security Risk involves:
1. Identifying each target that could lead to
unacceptable consequence on RRAF
2. Understanding the security risk posed by each target
• Potential Consequence
• Likelihood of Occurrence
• Attractiveness
• Security Effectiveness
3. Combining the individual risk estimates into a
comprehensive, RRAF-wide security risk
Estimating Security Risk
Risk ManagementApplication of GuidanceApproach for
Comprehensive Risk