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Prof. Ijaz Khan

Department of International RelationsUniversity of Peshawar

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The study looks at the regional security scenario withthe help of Barry BuzansRegional Security ComplexTheory with a comprehensive understanding of theconcept of security

It takes Iran, India, Afghanistan and Pakistan as theRSC for the purpose

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Regional Security Complex RSC is group of states whose primary security concerns link

together sufficiently closely that their national securitiescannot realistically be considered apart from one another.

The theory specifies what to look for at four levels of analysisand how to interrelate these. The four levels are:

1. The domestic vulnerability of the States of the region understudy.

2. State-to-state relations

3. The region's interaction with neighboring regions

4. The role of global powers in the region (the interplaybetween the global and regional security structures).

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The domestic vulnerability of the

States of the region under study. Pakistan

Governance

Extremism Terrorism Ethno Linguistic Issues Identity

Economy

Economy Generally Capital Flight Energy

Uneven Ddistribution of resources/Wealth - Disparity between classesand regions

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The domestic vulnerability - - - - .

India

Governance

Secularism under challenge Secessionism

Economy

Generally doing well

Distribution of resources / economic progess poses seriouschallenges

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The domestic vulnerability Iran

Economy Mainly Oil based have enough capitalthough facing some economic crunch due to USimposed sanctions

Political Tensions Polarization between conservativeruling clergy and reformers

Secessionism Baloch and Kurd

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The domestic vulnerabilityAfghanistan

Insurgency

State Building Economy

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State-to-State Relations Pak India adversarial relations impact Pak Afghan

Relations and India Afghan Relations in which Iranalso enters for its own competitive relations withPakistan inside Afghanistan.

The Non state Challenge Cross border Terrorism accusations and counter accusations Pakistan India

Afghanistan Iran Territorial claims Afghanistan Pakistan Pakistan

India

Pipelines Economics Trade - Routes

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Region's Interaction with

Neighboring Regions Through Iran, the Iran Saudi conflict enters the region

Shia Sunni/Wahabi issues - Extremism Funding

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States quite strong players

of the domestic & state to state relations of the regionunder study especially Pakistan and also Afghanistan

Pakistan in order to balance India stresses its religiousbased connection with Middle Eastern States and

Central Asia Energy

Iran, India and Pakistan competes and cooperates inCentral Asia

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Role of Global Powers in the

Region Cold War Legacy US and Soviet Union Pakistan and

India China in Pak India relations

Post cold War US views India as Strategic Partner US

gradual movement away from Pakistan towards India Russia though a little opening to Pakistan but continues itsSoviet era relations with India

9/11 brings Pakistan back in US policy calculations brings NATO / US troops to the region Russia, USA andChina competes & suspects each other but also cooperatesand tolerates each other specially on Terrorism

A serious worry, even if remote the chance of NuclearWeapons going into the hands of Terrorists

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Concluding Remarks Either continued State Erosion and further blurring of inter

and intra state conflicts, increased non state terrorism andpower state erosion a Security Nightmare keeping inmind the presence of Nuclear Weapons

ORA changed process of democratic stability leading to

changes security understanding and perceptions

increased regional economic integration and people topeople contacts Moving out of Interstate conflict where itcannot be resolved