Securing india’s energy future
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- 1. Securing Indias energy future Anil Kakodkar IIM, Bangalore, January 4, 2012
2. Securing energy for Indias future is a major challengeWorld OECDNon-OECDIndiaIndia (developing world) of our dreamPopulation(billion) 6.7 1.185.521.2 1.6 (stabilised)Annualav. per capita~2800 ~9000~1500~675 5000Electricity (kWh)AnnualElectricityGeneration18.8 10.6 8.2 0.8118.0(trillion kWh)Carbon-di-oxideEmission30 13171.7?(billion tons/yr)India alone would need around 40% of presentglobal electricity generation to be added to reachaverage 5000 kWh per capita electricity generation 3. Number of years a domestic non-renewable energy source (as known today) can last at 5000 kWh/capita electricity consumption in India (8 trillion units) CoalHydro-carbon Uranium UraniumThoriumonce-throughrecycle11.5 ---- 0.3618.5 >170 Non- Electricity generation potential from renewable sourcesRenewable in India ( as fraction of 8 trillion units)renewableWHILE WE MUST MAKEHydro Other renewablessolar (wind+biomass)FULL USE OF ALL AVAILABLE ENERGYRESOURCES ONLY0.075 0.02251.0*THORIUM AND SOLAR *Would need ~45,000 sq.km which corresponds to a ENERGY IS SUSTAINABLEfourth of barren and uncultivable land in IndiaIN THE LONG RUN(FUSION ENERGY NOT CONSIDERED FORTHE PRESENT) 4. We do not know howclose we are to the tipping point. However we need toact now to securesurvival of our future generations.Incidentally both Global average temperature over.last one and a half centurynuclear and solarshowing a more or less steady cause least carbon-increase over the last fifty yearsor so. The fluctuations and theirdi-oxide emissioncycles can be correlated withvarious events like solar cycles 5. Stage 1: Since Thorium does not have a naturally occurringfissile content, one has to begin nuclear energy programwith Uranium. Stage 2: For fastergrowth, plutonium breeding in fastreactors is necessaryStage 3:After generation capacity issufficiently enlarged throughfast reactors, Thorium cansustainthe generationcapacity with a wide range ofchoices, lower minor actinideburdenandgreaterproliferation resistance 6. Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme Globally Advanced Globally Unique 10095919090 89 Technology 90 8486858483 82Availability 8579 80 75 World class 75 70 65 60performance 55 501997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 989900010203040506070809Stage I Stage - II Stage - IIIPHWRsFast Breeder Reactors Thorium Based Reactors 18 Operating (4460 MWe) 40 MWth FBTR - Operating since 4 700 MWe units under1985 30 kWth KAMINI- Operatingconstruction (2800 Mwe) Technology Objectives realisedSeveral 700 MWe units 500 MWe PFBR- 300 MWe AHWR-plannedUnder Constructionready for deploymentLWRs Pre-project activities for two 2 --BWRs Operating (320 more FBRs approved Availability of ADS can enableMWe) TOTAL POWER POTENTIAL 530early introduction of Thorium on a 2 -- VVERs under large scaleGWe (including 300 GWe with Thorium) construction (2000 Mwe)No additional mined uranium ENERGY POTENTIAL IS Several LWR Units plannedis needed for this scale up VERY LARGE 7. Strategy for long-term energy securityThe deficit is practically 1400wiped out in 2050 1300LWR import: 40 GWe 1200 Period: 2012-2020 1100 FBR using spent 1000fuel from LWRInstalled capacity (GWe) 900 LWR (Imported) 800 Nuclear (Domestic 700 3-stageProjectedprogramme) 600requirement* 500Hydrocarbon 400Coal domestic 300 200Non-conventional 100 0Hydroelectric20102020 2030 20402050*Ref: A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in Year* - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg India, document 10, August 2004, DAE 8. Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh)Coal world average161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)Coal China278Coal USA15Oil 36 (36% of world energy)Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy)Biofuel/Biomass12Peat 12Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy)Wind0.15 (less than 1% of world energy)Hydro 0.10 (Europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy)http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.htmlRisks with nuclear energy are the least 9. Projected health consequences from low doses to large sections of population are questionableIN CASE OF CHERNOBYLESTIMATED CONSEQUENCESAN ESTIMATE IN 200693,000 WILL DIE DUE TO CANCER UP TO THEYEAR2056ANOTHER ESTIMATE IN 2009---985,000 DIED TILL 2004Driven byACTUAL CONSEQUENCE conservative linearTOTAL DEATHS; no threshold62 (47 PLANT, 15 DUE TO THYROID CANCER ) principle (which isACUTE RADIATION SYNDROME; not substantiated134 (OUT OF WHICH 28 HAVE DIED)surveys in highINCREASED CANCER INCIDENCE; natural radiationAMONG RECOVERY WORKERS background areas)THYROID CANCER; (CURABLE, WAS AVOIDABLE)we tend to create6000 ( 15 HAVE DIED)avoidable trauma in public mind 10. There is already a large used uranium fuel inventory (~270,000tons as per WNA estimate) While the spent fuel would be a sufficiently large energyresource if recycled, its permanent disposal is in my view anunacceptable security and safety risk (plutonium mine?) We need to adopt ways to liquidate the spent fuel inventorythrough recycle France today recycles entire spent fuel arising. Recycle is acredible option. Development of Partitioning and Transmutation technologies canin principle effectively address long term waste managementchallenge. Waste management challenge can be effectively met through recycle 11. The Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR),a quick, safe, secure and proliferation resistant solution for theenergy hungry worldAHWR is a 300 MWe vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and heavy watermoderated reactor (An innovative configuration that can provide low risk nuclear energy usingavailable technologies)Major design objectives Significant fraction of Energy from Thorium Top Tie PlateDisplacerWater Rod Several passive features Tube 3 days grace periodFuel Pin No radiological impactAHWR can beconfigured to accept a Passive shutdown system to addressrange of fuel typesinsider threat scenarios.including LEU, U-Pu ,Th-Pu , LEU-Th and Design life of 100 years.233U-Th in full core Bottom Tie Plate Easily replaceable coolant channels. AHWR Fuel assembly 12. AHWR 300-LEU is a simple 300 MWe system fuelledwith LEU-Thorium fuel, has advanced passive safety features, high degree of operator forgivingcharacteristics, no adverse impact in public domain, high proliferation resistance and inherent security strength.600 Peak clad Clad temperature (K)10 sec delay temperature hardly 5905 sec delay rises even in the580 2 sec delayextreme condition of complete station570 blackout and560failure of primaryand secondary 550 systems.0 200 400 600 800 1000Reactor Block Components Time (s)AHWR300-LEU provides a robust design againstexternal as well as internal threats, including insidermalevolent acts. This feature contributes to strongsecurity of the reactor through implementation oftechnological solutions. 13. PSA calculations for AHWR indicate practically zeroprobability of a serious impact in public domainPlant familiarization &Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion WithSWS: Serviceidentification of design Consequence Analysis Water SystemAPWS: Activeaspects important toProcess Watersevere accident SystemRelease from ContainmentECCS HDRBRK:ECCS HeaderBreakPSA level-1 : IdentificationLLOCA: Largeof significant events withBreak LOCAlarge contribution to CDFLevel-2 : Source Term (withinSLOCAMSLBOB: MainSteam Line Containment) Evaluation throughSWS 15% Break Outside63% Analysis Containment Contribution to CDFLevel-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagram 10-1010-10 Frequency of Exceedence 10-1110-11 -12 10-1210 10-1310-13 10-1410-14 110 mSv0.1 Sv1.0 Sv10 Sv -3 -2 -1 0 101010Thyroid Dose (Sv) at 0.5 KmIso-Dose for thyroid -200% RIH + wired shutdown Variation of dose with frequency exceedence system unavailable (Wind condition in January on western14 (Acceptable thyroid dose for a child is 500 mSv)Indian side) 14. STRONGER PROLIFERATIONAmount of Plutonium in spent fuel per unit energy3025 Total Fissile RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU20(kg/TWhe)15Much lower Plutonium production.10Plutonium in spent fuel contains lowerfissile fraction, much higher 238Pu content 5 0Modern MODERN AHWR300- AHWR300-LEUwhich causes heat generation & Uranium inLWR LWRLEU spent fuel contains significant 232U contentwhich leads to hard gamma emitters.238Pu3.50% 9.54 %239Pu51.87 % 41.65%240Pu23.81 % 21.14% The composition of the fresh as well as the241Pu12.91 % 13.96% spent fuel of AHWR300-LEU makes the fuelcycle inherently proliferation resistant.242Pu7.91% 13.70%232U 0.00% 0.02 %Uranium in spent fuel contains about 8%233U 0.00% 6.51 % fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable for234U 0.00% 1.24 % further energy production through reuse in235U 0.82% 1.62 % other reactors. Further, it is also possible to236U 0.59%reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast 3.27 %238U 98.59 % 87.35%reactors. 15. Present deployment MOXThorium Of nuclear power ReprocessThermalSpent Fuel FastEnrichmentreactors Reactor Uranium LEU PlantFor growth in nuclear LEU ThoriumRecycle Thorium generation fuel beyond thermalreactor potential233U Thorium LEU-Nuclear power with Thorium greater proliferation resistance Safe & Thorium SecureReactorsReactors For ex. AHWR Recycle For ex. Acc.Driven MSRThorium 16. CHALLENGES IN SOLAR TECHNOLOGYDrive capital costs downLow cost energy storage systemsSolar biomass hybridsSolar thermal photovoltaic hybridsLarge solar thermal systems not dependent onavailability of waterTechnology initiatives 1.Higher efficiency / non-toxic PV materials 2.High temperature photovoltaics 3.Self cleaning abrasion resistant surfaces 4.Recycle of Carbon-di-oxide to fluid hydrocarbon substitutes 5. --------------- 17. Sustainable development of energy sectorTransition to Fossil Carbon Free Energy CycleCarbon/ENERGYGREATERFossil HydrocarbonsCARRIERSSHARE FOREnergyElectricity (In storage or WASTENUCLEAR IN Resourcestransportation)ELECTRICITY CO2 ElectricitySUPPLY Electricity H2O Fluid fuelsREPLACE OtherFOSSILHydrogen (hydro-carbons/ oxides andHYDRO- products Sun hydrogen)CARBON IN APROGRESSIVEMANNER CH4Fluid NuclearHydrocarbonsRECYCLEEnergy CO2 chemicalCARBON-Resources BiomassreactorDIOXIDECO2 OtherDERIVE MOST recycleOF PRIMARYNuclear RecyclemodesENERGY Sustainable Waste Management StrategiesTHROUGHSOLAR & Urgent need to reduce use of fossil carbon in a progressive mannerNUCLEAR 18. Thank you 19. Reduced Plutonium generationHigh 238Pu fraction and low fissile contentAmount of Plutonium in spent fuel per unit energy30 of PlutoniumTotal238PuFissile239Pu25240Pu241Pu20242Pu(kg/TWhe)15 MODERNAHWR300-LEULWR 238Pu 3.50 %238Pu9.54 %10 239Pu 51.87%239Pu41.65% 240Pu 23.81%240Pu21.14% 5 241Pu 12.91%241Pu13.96% 242Pu 7.91 %242Pu13.70% 0 MODERN AHWR300-LEU The French N4 PWR is considered as representative of a modern LWR.. The reactor has been referred from Accelerator-drivenLWR Systems (ADS) and Fast Reactor (FR) in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles, OECD (2002)STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU MUCH LOWER PLUTONIUM PRODUCTIONMuch Higher 238Pu & Lower Fissile Plutonium 20. Presence of 232U in uranium from spent fuel The 232U composition 233U 234Uof the fresh 235U 236Uas well as the 238U AHWR300-LEUspent fuel ofMODERN LWRAHWR300-LEU 232U 232U 0.02%0.00%233U 6.51% 233U 0.00% makes the 234U 234U 1.24%0.00% 235U 0.82% 235U 1.62%fuel cycle 236U 236U 3.27%0.59% 238U 98.59 % 238U 87.35 %inherentlyUranium in the spent fuel contains about 8% fissile proliferationisotopes, and hence is suitable to be reused in otherreactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the resistant.Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.