Secret Betting Club Sports Preview

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Page | 1 SECRET BETTING CLUB SPORTS BETTING SPECIAL PREVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS Sports Betting Tipster Ratings ........................................................................................................... 2 Sports Betting Best Buy Tables ......................................................................................................... 3 Sports Betting Tipsters In Focus With Greg Gordon ......................................................................... 5 Full review: Gorans live betting ........................................................................................................ 6 Live betting: Beginners Guide ......................................................................................................... 12 Live betting: Expert Insight ............................................................................................................. 13 Find Value Bets With This Powerful Free Ratings System............................................................... 15 Disclaimer & Copyright Notice ........................................................................................................ 17 WELCOME TO THE SPECIAL PREVIEW OF SBC’S SPORTS PUBLICATION Thank you for downloading this special preview of Secret Betting Club (SBC) Sports magazine. With this preview you can get a taste of the sort of content we produce every month for our readers. We offer more than this though: Racing & Sports Magazines: We cater for all interests with a separate racing and sports edition each month for the price of a single subscription. Exclusive Tipster Discount Club: We take no commission from our reviews so are able to pass on any exclusive discounts in full for our subscribers. Save hundreds, even thousands on tipster fees with an SBC membership. Vibrant Members Forum: Get free tips from fellow members and commercial tipsters on our private members forum. Betting Guides: From beginners’ guides to advice for seasoned pros you’ll find information to take your betting to the next level. Free Strategies & Systems: Get amazing systems such as the 4 Pronged Attack free as an SBC member. Issue Notes: ROI = Return On Investment. AKA profit on turnover. Total profits divided by total amount of money staked. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

Transcript of Secret Betting Club Sports Preview

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SECRET BETTING CLUB SPORTS BETTING SPECIAL PREVIEW

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Sports Betting Tipster Ratings ........................................................................................................... 2 Sports Betting Best Buy Tables ......................................................................................................... 3 Sports Betting Tipsters In Focus With Greg Gordon ......................................................................... 5 Full review: Gorans live betting ........................................................................................................ 6 Live betting: Beginners Guide ......................................................................................................... 12 Live betting: Expert Insight ............................................................................................................. 13 Find Value Bets With This Powerful Free Ratings System ............................................................... 15 Disclaimer & Copyright Notice ........................................................................................................ 17

WELCOME TO THE SPECIAL PREVIEW OF SBC’S SPORTS PUBLICATION

Thank you for downloading this special preview of Secret Betting Club (SBC) Sports magazine. With this preview you can get a taste of the sort of content we produce every month for our readers. We offer more than this though:

Racing & Sports Magazines: We cater for all interests with a separate racing and sports edition each month for the price of a single subscription.

Exclusive Tipster Discount Club: We take no commission from our reviews so are able to pass on any exclusive discounts in full for our subscribers. Save hundreds, even thousands on tipster fees with an SBC membership.

Vibrant Members Forum: Get free tips from fellow members and commercial tipsters on our private members forum.

Betting Guides: From beginners’ guides to advice for seasoned pros you’ll find information to take your betting to the next level.

Free Strategies & Systems: Get amazing systems such as the 4 Pronged Attack free as an SBC member.

Issue Notes: ROI = Return On Investment. AKA profit on turnover. Total profits divided by total amount of money staked. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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--------EXTRACT: Racing Tipster Ratings-------- QUICKLY FIND THE TOP RACING TIPSTERS, EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNTS AND VISIT OUR ONLINE KEY FACTS PAGE.

SPORTS BETTING TIPSTER RATINGS

THE LATEST SECRET BETTING CLUB RATINGS TABLE

The following is a list of those sports betting services, which we have reviewed in full in a past SBC Issue and the current SBC rating awarded to them (Scale between 1 and 5). Each tipster is judged on a range of measures including profitability, practicality, reliability, customer service, longevity, odds availability and our own confidence in them. Those services highlighted in blue are those we recommend as part of our Hall of Fame – our list of which we consider the best sports betting tipsters.

Service Name Description SBC Rating

SBC Saving

SBC Key Facts

Skeeve* Non-league football betting expert 4.5/5 Web Link

Name for subs only Ratings based football tips 4 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Top-level European football tipster 3.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Scottish football tips 3.5 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Football & general sports tips 3 Web Link

Name for subs only Rugby specialist tipster 3 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Free tennis & football tips 3 Web Link

Name for subs only Northern Europe football tips 3 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Ex-footballer turned tipster 3 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Regular football bets 2.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Three football tipsters combined 2.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Long-term football/darts/tennis tips 2.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Scottish football tips 2.5 Yes Web Link

Name for subs only Selective Darts advice 2.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Selective European football bets 2.5 Web Link

Name for subs only Regular tennis advice 2 Yes Web Link * denotes a service which operates a waiting list for new memberships. Table Key - SBC Rating is the overall score out of 5 currently awarded by our team. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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SPORTS BETTING BEST BUY TABLES

SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS RANKED

One of the findings from a recent SBC member’s survey was that member’s overall weren’t too hot on the way we previously presented tipster results in our spreadsheets. In light of this we have constructed new Best Buy Tables based on how different members may wish to prioritise a tipster based on their circumstances. The tables below show only the top few tipsters in that category with the full results available within the Sports Tipster File [Available to members only] We also use a number of unique ratings to assess services as follows: SBC Ratings: Our Subjective ratings taking into account many factors beyond results (five best). Average cost: Based on the price of the lowest multi month option (Usually three months). Odds: A score of 5 generally means the service proofs to Betfair SP or SP. 1 means odds move very quickly Return on Investment: Total points profit divided by the total amount staked. AKA Profit on Turnover. ROI+: The ROI multiplied by the number of bets. A high score rewards those tipsters who have maintained a good ROI over a large number of bets.

BEST OF THE BEST This table shows who the best tipsters are regardless of whether they are currently accepting members or not. A * means they are full or have a waiting list. It is always worth contacting the tipster about spaces to register interest as these lists move quicker than you’d think. The table shows profits from a £5,000 bank over different time frames. The annualised returns are the all time returns divided by the number of months the service has been operating. Please note the £5,000 bank is used for illustration purposes only, such an investment may not be suitable for everybody.

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VALUE FOR MONEY This table shows you returns on a £5,000 after annualised fees are taken into account. This table only includes tipsters who are currently offering places. Please note the £5,000 bank is used for illustration purposes only, such an investment may not be suitable for everybody.

BEST ON A BUDGET This table shows you the best tipsters who have small subscription fees. They are ranked by ROI+ from different time perspectives. This table only includes tipsters who are currently offering places.

Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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-------- EXTRACT: Sports Tipster Commentary -------- MONTHLY EDITORIAL UPDATES ON THE HIGHS AND LOWS OF THE TIPSTER WORLD. THIS HELPS YOU PUT ANY PERFORMANCE STATISTICS IN CONTEXT. TIPSTER NAMES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN DELETED FOR THE BENEFIT OF SUBSCRIBERS.

SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS IN FOCUS WITH GREG GORDON

ANALYSIS ON THE LATEST PERFORMANCE FROM OUR MONITORED SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS

As any football manager worth his salt will tell you there are no gongs handed out in August and September and as a result the first phase of a new season is always something of a phoney war. At this time of year, the stats guys can struggle without a useful sample of new trends and data and the services that specialise in working with the evidence of their eyes should show a massive edge – especially so if they specialise in a particular niche which has seen dramatic changes in both players and clubs’ finances over the summer. What is immediately apparent to someone on the ground can take a good while to filter through to both the hard-pressed odds compilers and the tipsters analysing form from afar. In this respect it will always pay to keep in mind that the season is a marathon rather than a sprint and some of our monitored services must be clinging to that concept like a life raft in a stormy sea right now. Not least XXXX Tipster A They’ve had a slow start to the season following on from an underwhelming campaign last time. This inescapable fact puts Tipster A at a bit of a crossroads as far as punters are concerned. Bad luck is a punting cliché but, taken in isolation, last minute goals certainly haven’t gone in XXXX favour. A 94th minute equaliser for Stoke, an 84th minute equaliser for Hertha and a perfectly good 89th minute winner for Hannover ruled out for no good reason led to a near four point swing from just six minutes of football. The worst of times and the best of times are always falling away in life and in betting and next week the boot will just as likely be on the other foot for XXXXX. I am sure he will stick to his guns and we’ll see how he goes. The Spanish-based service Tipster B is something we will be taking a good re-look at in the imminent future, especially now their paid model has settled in (the service was initially wholly free of charge as an extended trial). Our initial impressions of the transition to a subscription service (for tennis only, their less frequent football bets are still free) is good. Tipster B made a 7.7 pt profit in August (13.23% ROI), which was needed after losses of 10.5 pts combined from April and May. June was a month off, while July made a tiny profit. After another month or so we will be in a better position to re-evaluate but so far so good. The previously SBC reviewed Tipster C is potentially a great Rugby expert to follow for the World Cup. He has been a real live Hall of Fame candidate for a while now and we have decided to upgrade the service to full Hall of Fame status. It is a moot point in a way as membership is currently closed but you will be first to know if and when spaces become available in the future.

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Tipster C made 3.26 pts (27% ROI) in August and 2.53 in July (28.80%) and he is in very good form in a sport where tipsters often struggle to consolidate good periods of form. Long-term record that record is up to 14% ROI which over 565 bets is a very decent haul indeed. These are good numbers – especially so for rugby where most handicap selections are between 1.91 and 2.1 in price. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

-------- Full Review Example -------- THIS IS A FULL REVIEW DEMONSTRATING THE LEVEL OF RESEARCH APPLIED WHEN WE ASSESS SPORTS TIPSTERS.

FULL REVIEW: GORANS LIVE BETTING REVIEWER: DAN JONES & GREG GORDON

IN PLAY BETTING FROM FORMER SWEDEN U21 INTERNATIONAL

Service Name: Gorans Winners Sports Covered: Live Football

Contact: Goran or Jason Bet Frequency: Regular bets throughout each week

Telephone: N/A Pricing: 119 Euros per month

Website: http://www.goranswinners.com SBC Discount: 40% discount for SBC members

In October 2010 Goran’s Winners began offering its subscribers free access to live betting picks on top of their regular subscription. The experiment has been a great success as you’ll see below. Not least, because the trial has been surfing the wave of a nascent interest in all things ‘live and in play’ at the moment – either Asian bookies or Ray ‘it’s allll abaaaaaat the in play’ Winstone suddenly have a lot to answer for. Previously, in service terms, Goran Trpevski has always focused on 1X2bets, Asian Handicap pre-match betting and an antepost portfolio. As a former player though, (Goran is a prematurely retired, one-time Malmo and Sweden U21 midfielder), you’d assume that his playing experience would give him a massive edge when evaluating live pictures and prices. And the results thus far, and my own arcane football conversations with Goran, over the months, appear to bear that impression out. Indeed, Goran personally suggests that traditional match bets (whether 1x2 or Asian Handicaps) rank behind both his antepost calls and his live bets when it comes to his own personal betting profits and it now seems like a natural point in time for us to be looking at this under-exposed area of Goran’s offer more closely. As we’ve said before, Goran’s greatest strength is his ability to think laterally. His mind is a sharp processor of information and he has a real skill at applying the big picture knowledge he has at his fingertips to the immediate specifics of choosing bets.

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So, for instance, he is especially adept at seeking out those players vulnerable to being booked due to their manager’s tactics or say, the likely spread of offside decisions in a game. This sort of refined big picture-small picture analysis is exactly the kind of stuff that is perfect for in play betting. Especially when so much of the market movements are governed by bots and quants taking a statistical view on the general efficiency of a market at a specific point in time – rather than what is actually happening on the screen. Football, despite what some folk insist, isn’t played on a spreadsheet, if it was we could all be millionaires, and there is a clear skill (and profit) in interrogating often fatuous statistical generalisations with genuine human experience gleaned from watching and ideally playing thousands of games. It is Goran’s view, and mine too, that stats are only ever as good as the number crunchers analysing them. In the specifics of a here and now situation, a one off game, the person with a true sense of what they are watching (a full-back who is out of his depth, a key man carrying an injury or a back four that are vulnerable to pace, say) surely has a massive edge over someone basing their predictions on the crutch of general statistical probability? Or looked at another way, someone fine tuning any stats based bets based on what they see in front of them will surely be at an advantage. As Goran suggested to us in our End of Season Review: “Live betting is my A game and this will be a thing for the future. I believe live picks will take more and more space in the betting world. If I have an edge (and I have one of course) in the normal picks, then this edge clearly becomes magnified and more obvious in live betting where there is also greater liquidity too.” IS LIVE BETTING THE FUTURE? As technology improves, live betting is set to be an increasingly popular betting medium. You just have to look at the money Betfair has poured into this market with its ‘Cash Out’ facility and the Bet365 in play adverts hitting the airwaves at half time (everywhere) for evidence of this. The bookmakers like the idea of in play betting precisely because of the low opinion they hold of their clients – who they generally view as impulsive, inherently biased and erratic. But for those, like us, who set our stall out to be against the crowd, in play betting represents a massive opportunity. Until now though, one practical impediment for tipsters has been an inadequate delivery method for tips and commentary in real time. As a pioneer in this field, this is something that Goran’s Winners appears to be doing more or less, very well. Currently Goran’s members simply log into their website and are directed to the live betting page. Here the betting window displays any live picks with audio alerts provided when a new pick is put up online. The screenshot below shows what this looks like.

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The majority of the live betting action takes place on Champions League midweek, a Saturday or a Sunday, which obviously won’t suit everyone. Email alerts, on the morning of the games, provide some notice as to when a live betting session is likely to go ahead, but you do need to be flexible as Goran will make last minute decisions based on team news and quick calls fresh from the heat of battle. My right hand man, Gregor has been monitoring the service for us in terms of its user-friendliness and practicalities of use. Generally speaking his experience is a positive one. He says: “Obviously the nature of in play betting means that you can be sitting around for a while before anything happens and sometimes of course there is simply no bet. However, if you are watching the games anyway it is a pretty pleasant, unobtrusive, addition to your viewing.” In terms of the practicality of getting the bets on as Goran’s members scramble to snare the same price following an in play alert, Gregor again, reports no real problems. He says: “I have been using a Bet 365 account, as Goran generally recommends, to follow these bets. I haven’t had any issues to report as – thanks to the Asian influence in play (online and on the exchanges) the liquidity levels are generally superior to prematch. It is probably possible to better Goran’s advised prices if you are quick on the ball and have all the live prices at your fingertips via www.oddsportal.com or the like (Click the live game odds). My impression is that a bit of trial and error could see you find your own way to make the most of Goran’s info for yourself.” In that respect, Goran’s live bets are probably best suited to intermediate and relatively experienced punters who can quickly navigate between bookmakers’ sites to hoover up the value on offer. The picks are taken on high profile leagues across Europe with a mix of Asian Handicap bets and over/ under goals betting. The over/ under bets can be particularly interesting as the line changes throughout the game. Over 3.75 type odds lines are not uncommon as bookmakers adjust their in play lines. Bets are made to expire at kick off and Goran is a backer rather than a trader or a layer. A fact that again, makes these live bets straightforward to follow. Practical Considerations Not all bookmakers offer in play betting, but an increasing number are doing so, especially the Asian and Asian-influenced bookmakers (people like SBOBet, Pinnacle, Bet 365, 188Bet and the like). Odds availability is difficult to assess, particularly as the odds change to reflect the events on the pitch not just the weight of money coming in but Gregor’s comments, taken at face value, are heartening in this respect. You won’t just be able to rely on Betfair for Goran’s bets unfortunately because the liquidity for in play Asian Handicap and non standard goal line bets is poor.

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Gregor’s Recommendations In our first look at Goran’s Live bets Dan Jones suggested: “On the practical side, there could be more communication. The instruction is to keep an eye on alerts until Goran says otherwise, which is fine in theory, but regular updates on the day’s progress would be useful. E.g. “Still 3 hours of football to go today, I’ll be here until 7PM, I’m currently looking at the Manchester United game”. Sometimes there is just 1 live pick for an entire day’s football, so be aware that there is no guarantee of action. Clearer instructions on where to get the suggested odds or alternatives would certainly help as without regular updates on what Goran has is eye on in the short term, it can be a scramble to find the bet and get the best odds before the game changes.” Gregor has some cogent things to say on this issue currently. “Ideally, this service would be available via a restricted twitter feed whereby clients would get the bets on their phone or computers as required. As there can be a lot of waiting around in live betting it makes sense to have these Goran Live Bets exploit all the mobile technology available. Nobody wants to be chained to a computer for hours with the promise of a bet that may not materialise on the day.” Gregor would also like to see someone else working with Goran to act as his link to members, helping seek out odds lines and keep members abreast of what is happening in the games Goran is watching and where his thoughts are at, at specific times. He says: “I realise that Goran requires his concentration for watching the games with minimal distraction so surely an assistant of some kind (probably on the end of a phone somewhere) makes sense. What Goran has in place is adequate, good even. However, there is the potential to really push the boat out with this service and really make it something unique.” “Following on from this point, I would also like to see Goran do a recap of his live bets at the end of the week. Obviously time is of the essence during the action but it always works well when services explain their specific decisions at a later date for members. It helps to build confidence in a service and members also get something from the analysis that they can take into their own betting.” GORANS LIVE RESULTS Results to date are as follows:

Bets Stakes Profit ROI

Since Oct 2010 193 255 42.22 16.56%

Bets Stakes Profit ROI

Last Six Months 102 140 21.49 15.29%

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As you can see from the above graph and tables it has generally all been pretty much plain sailing for Goran’s Live Bets with the three month, annual and full bet records all displaying a fairly consistent 15%+ ROI. The graph also suggests a pleasing upward trajectory too and the losing runs aren’t’ too bad. There is a blip around bet 36 to bet 50, but in general it is the usual nip and tuck you’d expect in live betting. A good analyst (like Goran) will still take reversals, strikers will miss sitters, goalposts will come to the rescue etc but, generally speaking, if their eyes tend to see the truth of a game they should have a good chance of predicting accurately what might happen next on a fairly consistent basis. As Goran suggests in play betting and prematch betting are markedly different beasts. The analysis involved is subtly different, sometimes even massively different, but there is obviously a massive advantage in seeing what you are betting on unfold. Goran says: “Live betting is about truly reading and understanding this game. Pre-match 1x2 bets are always more speculative. A lot of the time betting before the match kicks off is about guessing who will play and how they will play on the day. Live betting is here and now. We can see how the teams are playing tactically, we can tell exactly what the line-ups are and we can see if the game is closed off or open and attacking. Really prematch and live betting are impossible to compare. The two disciplines – prematch and live – are basically different sports.” OUR CONCLUSIONS Whereas around 200 bets would still be a small sample for a pre-match bettor, I reckon that it gives a fair sense of how a live bettor is likely to respond time and time again. As Goran suggests the value in prematch betting lies in better being able to interpret likely future scenarios than the bookmakers (such as the effect of team news, playing conditions, weather and general form). In a live scenario these questions have been largely answered for the most observant students of the game and success comes down to better evaluating what is happening right now (ie the public domain information) better than the crowd and better than the bookies. Live betting doesn’t come down to contacts, information or stats. Live betting is really an exercise in interpretation and prediction based on prices. I would expect live bettors to fall basically into two camps – profitable or unprofitable, and also for their ability (or lack thereof) to become evident over a much smaller sample of bets.

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One negative of this service is the price 119 Euros per month. We are however working on an SBC Discount Club deal for members and we are hopeful of a reduction. However, the live bets should profit from decent liquidity in the in play markets and with the Asian bookmakers driving the in play sector of the market betting restrictions could be less of an issue (using the likes of Pinnacle and SBOBet) than it is backing 1X2 selections pre-match. Another factor here is the nature of in play betting and as it is a style of betting based wholly on the interpretation of information live on screen we’d expect Goran to maintain the ROI and kind of graph he has shown thus far. Losing runs will doubtless happen but we expect them to be similar to the runs seen so far with blips punctuating a nice upward trend. While Goran’s ability as a live analyst can be pretty much taken as read, it’s still early days with Goran’s live betting service. We, at SBC, certainly believe there is a lot of potential here and we will be working with Goran to implement a lot of the suggestions Gregor has fed back to us from his trial, where we can. A twitter feed and some additional help on matchdays from a researcher/administrator could certainly take Goran’s Live Bets to a whole new level, in a live betting arena that remains largely uncharted water for tipsters. As we suggest in the companion Introduction to Live Betting article in this issue, we certainly predict massive growth in this area. With that in mind, we are working with Goran to create a special Live Betting offer for SBC members. Once that is finalised we will drop everyone an email with full details. Service Ratings: 0-5 with 5=Excellent and 0=Awful Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 3 Cost: 1 Transparency: 4 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Overall: 3 Rating: Buy ******Want more reviews?******** We usually review two to three sports tipsters in each edition. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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-------- EXTRACT: Strategy Article – Introduction to In Play Betting --------

EACH MONTH WE FEATURE BETTING STRATEGIES, HOW TO GUIDES AND OTHER ARTICLES THAT HELP YOU TO IMPROVE YOUR BETTING. THIS IS A SAMPLE OF THE FULL ARTICLE.

LIVE BETTING: IS IT THE FUTURE? PART II

AN INTRODUCTION TO IN PLAY BETTING

Take a look at the likes of Betfair or Bet 365’s websites and you’ll find endless in play markets offered across a wide array of sports, such as football, rugby, golf and the like. Basically anything where there are televised pictures to accompany the fluctuating betting odds. In Play betting is the term given to bets placed while an event is live and on-going. What To Bet On An example of some typical in play markets in football would include: match result, over/under 2.5 goals, next team to score, next goalscorer (player), correct scores and odds on a sending off. How It Works In play betting offers a distinct advantage to gamblers who are both watching the event and are connected to the internet with a high speed broadband link, as they can often take advantage of a pivotal moment occurring within a game. It is for this reason that both the online exchanges and bookmakers insist on a time delay between the bet being struck and accepted in their markets. Typically there is an eight second countdown to you placing a bet and it being accepted by the layer. Bookmakers will temporarily suspend a market if there is an occurrence that is likely to cause a substantial change in the odds. In football, that could include if a team are awarded a penalty, a goal or a red card. The market will then re-form with new prices after the incident, leading to the market suspension, has been resolved. Strategic Thinking: Use The In Play One clear advantage of in-play betting is that if you miss a pre-match price you were desperate to back, or can’t get your full stake placed, your patience will often be rewarded in play. If luck runs with you and if you can afford to wait say 20-30 minutes before you bet on the side you fancy the odds will drift to a more palatable price (as long as the game remains 0-0, of course). This kind of strategy (cross your fingers and hope to exploit a drift) is also a decent alternative to taking a poor value handicap or Asian handicap bet where the start offered or the price does not represent value. Another potential slant, is when a favourite goes a goal behind and there is a massive overreaction to them conceding an early goal, you can either look to back the pre-match favourite or lay the underdog who have just taken the lead dependent on the time elapsed and your view of the game. Of course, it helps if you’re watching the pictures and have a good sense of whether the team that have fallen behind are capable of battling back. There will be countless instances of this every week where a strong favourite fall behind early to a sucker punch goal scored by ‘weak’ opponents.

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In Play And Its Markets My sense is that as a rule, In Play football markets on the exchanges specifically, are conservative by nature, with most punters wedded to the idea of the status quo. There also appears to be a related over reaction to game changing events in a match such as a goal, red card or significant injury. If you can correctly and consistently anticipate change in games you should almost, by definition, be able to make a profit from in play betting. In tennis, not a game I follow, for example, the odds fluctuate dramatically, swinging wildly after service breaks and key points. For betting in-play on tennis matches, an established strategy is to look to selectively back pre-game favourites who has fallen one set down. Clearly though this is a strategy to be used selectively and you need both a good basic knowledge of the sport you are betting on and quick, accurate judgement for that matter to be sure of turning a profit long term. Bookies love in play betting, precisely because it appeals to the worst ‘get rich quick’ instincts of punters’ but the flip side of that if you are patient, quick witted and unemotional in your judgements you stand a very good chance of making your experience pay with live betting. If you've previously followed the live odds movements of a game before, you will have correctly surmised, no doubt, that that they're the product of a computer model that is then manually adjusted by the odds compilers in line with the weight of money and sentiment in the market. At kick-off prices are generally efficient, but as the game progresses the odds can take a bit of an adhoc cast especially where games are poised and bookies’ traders are reluctant to take a strong line that flies in the face of the pre-match prices. Sometimes good and bad teams both excel and flop outside of the bounds of normal expectations but you’ll find that those that set the lines, or establish the exchanges’ markets with their wagers are generally reluctant to confront their inherent prejudices. If you sense that these prejudices fly in the face of what is unfolding on your screen then congratulations, you have spotted an opportunity. Now all you need to work out is whether the prices available are greater than true odds should be - and strike accordingly. ******Want the full article?******** Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

-------- EXTRACT: Live Betting Expert Interview -------- WE REGULARLY INTERVIEW PROVEN EXPERTS FOR INSIGHTS AND IDEAS THAT MEMBERS CAN TAKE AWAY AND USE. THIS IS A SAMPLE OF THE FULL ARTICLE.

LIVE BETTING: IS IT THE FUTURE? PART II

Q&A WITH GORAN TRPEVSKI OF GORAN’S LIVE BETS

Goran Trpevski is the creator of Goran’s Live Bets, reviewed elsewhere in this edition of SBC. Here, in an exclusive interview, he gives us the low down on his approach to betting live.

1. How much do you pay attention to stats in live betting or are you a pure 'feel' punter.

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Fundamentally I am against any talk of ‘I had a feeling’-type betting. Stats don’t really resonate for me either - not before the game and not while the game is running. My whole life is football and a piece of paper or a spreadsheet can’t tell me more than my eyes can see, that’s impossible. In saying that, there are certain teams and even leagues that play in a specific way. In Italy for example teams don’t look for that second goal if 1-0 up, while in Germany they go for that second goal like their life depended on it whatever the situation is in the game. This kind of concrete knowledge rather than numbers is what feeds into my betting. 2. Why is live betting such an important betting medium? What opportunities do you get during a game that you don't get prematch? Live betting is about truly reading and understanding this game. Pre-match betting is often an educated guess about who will play and how they will play – even when you can get the line-ups in advance. Live betting is in the ‘here and now’, we can see how the teams are playing and who is in the starting line-ups, our eyes tell us if the game is closed and defensive or open etc, etc. And that is a massive advantage if you know what you are watching and can relate that to the prices on offer. In fact it is impossible to compare pre-match and live betting directly. It is like you are almost betting on different sports. 3. Where would you recommend someone start first with live betting. Bet365 is out on their own when it comes to live betting and the markets they offer. Saying that, punters should be aware that Bet365 is out to make money. Don’t play those Mickey Mouse markets such as ‘who will get the next throw in?’ or ‘who will kick of first?’ and stuff like that. That’s not serious and we want to be serious in our approach. It’s best to take a view on football things like the number of goals in the game or the likely result. 4. Do you trade your positions or take the bets to hold until the end? Why? I usually hold my positions to the end. But it all depends really. Generally if I have a value price I want to get that value paid out. However, I never like losing a monster play (let’s say above 5.00 prices) in the 85th minute to a late goal so if there is a fair possibility of a win/win trading move I will sometimes trade a profit in these types of bets. But in general, yes I do hold my position. 6. What accounts would you recommend clients have for in play betting? I’d say Bet365 absolutely no debate. Pinnacle offer better prices then Bet365 but they offer Asian Handicap prices so I’d use them selectively. Victor Chandler are decent to in terms of the markets they offer. ******Want the full article?******** Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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-------- EXTRACT: Free Football Betting System -------- WE REGULARLY FEATURE BETTING SYSTEMS THAT MEMBERS CAN APPLY THEMSELVES. THIS IS A SAMPLE OF THE FULL ARTICLE.

FIND VALUE BETS WITH THIS POWERFUL FREE RATINGS SYSTEM

SIMPLE AND EASY TO USE SYSTEM FOR THE EPL

In the full edition, we released details of a simple, free, yet incredibly powerful betting system that anyone can follow. We also release the full weekly qualifiers each week exclusively for Secret Betting Club members.

TESTING THE SYSTEM 2010/2011 results: The ratings had an excellent season in 2010/11. The following table is based on results betting 1pt level stakes whenever there was value according to the predicted outcome and available odds. This made no account of the size of the value.

Bets Profit ROI

All bets 310 52.37 16.89%

Homes 153 26.6 17.00%

Aways 152 27.6 18.00%

ROI: Return On Investment – This is your total profit divided by your total turnover of stakes. Strike rate: This is the percentage of winning bets. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed.

Home vs Away

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It’s interesting to note the variance in returns between the home bets and the away bets. They both ended up with fairly similar figures, but throughout the season there was certainly a contrast in performance. Up until half way into the season, you might have been tempted to just stick with the away bets, with the home bets going absolutely nowhere. However, just as the homes peaked, so the aways troughed. It shows how luck can still play a huge role in a sequence of results even over 150 bets. Had you dropped the home bets half way into the season you would have certainly regretted it.

BIGGER VALUE, BIGGER PROFITS The results mentioned above don’t make any allowances for value. This means you would have been placing a bet even if there was less than 2% value in the available odds. Logically, focusing just on high value picks where there is a greater discrepancy between the prediction and the available odds should produce better results. Does it?

Bets Profit ROI

>10% Value 228 65.1 29.6%

>20% Value 105 76.0 72%

Indeed, just focusing on matches offering 20% value would have increased your profits and boosted your ROI to an incredible 72%. ******Want the full article?******** Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club.

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DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NOTICE

The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. If you are affiliated with any of the services mentioned and have any questions regarding the points we raise we welcome your correspondence.

Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited.