SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010
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Transcript of SEB's Savings Barometer graphs Q2 2010
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Savings Barometer
QII 2010
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
SEB Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Total household savings = bank deposits, life insurance, mutual funds, bonds, government savings plans, premium pensions and - when noted - directly held equities and housing.
Sources: Statistics Sweden, Bank of Sweden, Swedish National Board of Student Aid (CSN), Swedish Insurance Federation, Swedish Mutual Fund Association, Svensk Fondstatistik/MoneyMate, NASDAQ OM Stockholm Exchange, NGM/NDX, SHB, Nordea Life, SEB Trygg Life, Swedish Pensions Agency, maklarstatistik.se, interim and annual reports of companies.
Compiled by Carl Holm, SEB Trygg Life
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Development Second Quarter 2010
•New savings were 46bn kronor. Savings in bank deposits were 34bn an insurance savings were 14bn.
•On the Stockholm Stock Exchange (NASDAQ OM) the AGFX index decreased by 3.7 per cent.
•Housing prices increased by 3.3 per cent.
•Households increased borrowing by 2.2 per cent during the second quarter. For twelve months the increase was 8.4 per cent.
•SEB had a 12.6 per cent market share and Swedbank 14.7 per cent. Alecta had 9.8 per cent, Skandia 9.5 and Nordea 8.9.
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Development Second Quarter 2010
SEK bnValue, beginning of quarter 9,601Savings +46Value, shareholdings directly held -27Value, housing +135Value, other assets -85Value, end of quarter 9,670 Loans -2,614Net assets 7,056
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Swedish Household Savings
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Bank depositsTrad insuranceUnit-linked insuranceMutual fundsBondsPremium PensionsShareholdingsHousing
Total household savings have increased by 50.9% since year- end 2004, from SEK 6,410 bn to SEK 9,670 bn.
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Total Household Savings Market Market Shares June 30 2010 (March 31 2010)
Others12.1 (12.5)%
Government3.4 (3.4)
Alecta9.8 (9.7) %
Folksam5.0 (4.9)%
LF4.7 (4.7)%
AMF7.7 (7.7)%
SPP3.4 (3.3)%
Handelsbanken8.4 (8.1)%
Nordea8.9 (8.8)%
Skandia9.5 (9.5)%
Swedbank14.7 (14.7)%
SEB12.6 (12.4)%
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Household Savings Market Shares June 30 2010
Share, per cent Bank Trad. U-L Mutual Bonds Prem Total deposits insur. insur. funds Pens
SEB 11.6 10.4 26.1 14.7 8.5 1.9 12.6 Alecta 25.8 9.8 Skandia 2.8 17.3 19.1 0.0 1.1 9.5 LF 3.5 6.8 9.0 0.9 2.9 4.7 Folksam 10.8 7.6 5.0 AMF 17.0 3.6 0.8 8.9 7.7 Handelsbanken 18.8 1.3 8.8 11.1 19.5 2.3 8.4 Storebrand/SPP 5.7 6.3 6.4 3.4 Nordea 16.6 1.2 2.0 22.2 10.3 3.8 8.9 Swedbank 24.1 0.8 14.1 31.7 13.1 18.8 14.7 Government 36.3 26.5 3.4 Others 22.5 3.0 3.3 18.5 12.3 27.3 12.1
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
”Security Savings”
Bank depositsTrad insuranceU-L insurancePremium PensionsMutual fundsBondsShares
December 31 1999 June 30 2010
41.3% 49.4%
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Total Household Savings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
HousingShareholdingsPremium PensionsBondsMutual fundsU-L insuranceTrad insuranceBank deposits
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Total Household Savings Market Shares (excluding shareholdings and housing) June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Others 12.1% (9.3)Government 3.1% (3.3)Folksam 5.0% (4.3)Alecta 9.8% (11.2)AMF 7.7% (7.7)LF 4.7% (4.9)Storebrand 3.4% (-)Handelsbanken 8.4% (11.2)Nordea 8.9% (9.2)Skandia 9.5% (11.5)Swedbank 14.7% (14.0)SEB 12.6% (13.3)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Bank Deposits, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Other banks 22.5% (20.6)
Swedbank 24.1% (25.3)
Nordea 16.6% (18.9)
Handelsbanken 18.8% (15.7)
LF 3.5% (2.9)
Skandia 2.8% (3.9)
SEB 11.6% (12.6)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Traditional Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Others incl Swedbank 3.8% (1.5)
AMF 17.0% (16.3)
Nordea 1.2% (1.3)
Alecta 25.8% (25.6)
Storebrand 5.7% (-)
Handelsbanken 1.3% (7.7)
Folksam 10.8 (7.0)
LF 6.8% (7.1)
Skandia 17.3% (20.3)
SEB 10.4% (13.0)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Unit-linked Insurance, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Others 3.3% (2.1)
AMF 3.6% (2.6)
Swedbank 14.1% (17.2)
Storebrand 6.3% (-)
Handelsbanken 8.8% (13.7)
Nordea 2.0% (2.9)
Folksam 7.6% (5.5)
LF 9.0% (9.3)
Skandia 19.2% (22.3)
SEB 26.1% (24.4)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Mutual Funds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Övriga 19.3% (16.6)
Swedbank 31.7% (31.5)
Nordea 22.2% (20.8)
Handelsbanken 11.1% (12.6)
Folksam - (2.3)
LF 0,9% (1.8)
SEB 14,7% (14.1)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Premium Pensions, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%10%20%
30%40%50%60%70%
80%90%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Others 27.3% (17.5)
Staten 26,5% (33.1)
Swedbank 18.8% (12.9)
Nordea 3.8% (2.5)
Storebrand 6.4% (-)
Handelsbanken 2.3% (11.3)
AMF 8,9% (8.4)
Folksam - (6.1)
LF 2.9% (4.2)
Skandia 1.1% (1.9)
SEB 1.9% (2.2)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Bonds, Market Shares June 30 2010 (December 31 2004)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Others 12.3% (12.6)
Gov't 36.3% (52.8)
Swedbank 13.1% (10.4)
Nordea 10.3% (5.9)
Handelsbanken 19.5% (14.8)
SEB 8.5% (3.3)
The change in bonds issued bySEB QI 2007 is mainly caused by the
technique used for measurementand is significantly overstating
real changes
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Savings - Distributed by Company
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
SEB
Swed
bank
Skan
dia
Nordea
Hand
elsba
nken LF AMF
Alecta SP
PSEK m 04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Bankdeposits
Tradinsurance
Unit-linkedins
Mutual funds Bonds PremiumPensions
SEK m
04-IV 05-II 05-IV 06-II 06-IV 07-II 07-IV 08-II 08-IV 09-II 09-IV 10-II
Savings - Distributed by Assets
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New SavingsQuarterly figures
-40 000
-30 000
-20 000
-10 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
05-I 05-II 05-III
05-IV
06-I 06-II 06-III
06-IV
07-I 07-II 07-III
07-IV
08-I 08-II 08-III
08-IV
09-I 09-II 09-III
09-IV
10-I 10-II
SEK m
Excluding Premium Pensions
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New Savings12 month figures
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV
06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV
07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV
08-I 08-II 08-III 08-IV
09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV
10-I 10-II
SEK m
Excluding Premium Pensions
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New SavingsSecond Quarter 2010
-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000
Bank deposits
Trad insurance
U-L insurance
Mutual funds
Bonds
Premium Pensions
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New SavingsSecond Quarter 2010
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000
SEB
Skandia
LF
Folksam
Handelsbanken
Nordea
Swedbank
AMF
Alecta
SPP
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Change of Total SavingsSecond Quarter 2010
-60 000 -40 000 -20 000 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000
Housing
Shareholdings
Bank deposits
Trad insurance
U-L insurance
Mutual funds
Bonds
Premium Pensions
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Change of Total SavingsSecond Quarter 2010
-30 000 -25 000 -20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000
SEB
Skandia
LF
Nordea
Swedbank
AMF
SHB
SPP
Alecta
Gov't
Others
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New Savings and Change of Savings Stock
-300 000
-200 000
-100 000
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV 06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV 07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV 08-I 08-II 08-III 08-IV 09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV 10-I 10-II
New SavingsChange of Savings Stock
SEK m
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Houshold Assets
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
99-IV 00-II00-IV 01-II
01-IV 02-II02-IV 03-II
03-IV 04-II04-IV 05-II 05IV 06-II
06-IV 07-II07-IV 08-II
08-IV 09-II09-IV 10-II
SEK bnFixed-income Equities Housing
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
”Balance sheet” of Households
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
99-IV 01-II02-IV 04-II
05-IV 07-II08-IV 10-II
SEK m Assets Liabilities
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Share Prices in Stockholm
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
AGFX, 1995-12-30=100 (linked to SIX GX)
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
New houshold loans QIII compared with corresponding quarter previous yearQII 2010
QII 2009
QII 2008
QII 2007
QII 2006
QII 2005
+ 57 bn
+ 60 bn
+ 68 bn
+ 62 bn
+ 55 bn
+ 53 bn
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Household loans (Change in per cent compared to previous year)
June 30 2010
March 31 2010
December 31 2009
September 30 2009
June 30 2009
+ 8.4%
+ 8.8%
+ 8.5%
+ 7.7%
+ 7.3%
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Assets Liabilities
Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits
SEK bn
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Household Assets and Liabilities June 30 2010
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Ass'97
Liab'97
Ass'00
Liab'00
Ass'03
Liab'03
Ass'06
Liab'06
Ass'10
Liab'10
Housing/Mortgage loans Equities/Bank loans Fixed-income/Consumer credits
First Quarter of Indicated Year, SEK bn., for 2010 Second Quarter
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Loans
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
04-IV 05-IV 06-IV 07-IV 08-IV 09-IV
Mortgage loansBank loansConsumer creditsGov't student loans
SEK m SEK 200bn reclassifiedfrom mortgage to bank
loans in QIV 2007
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Households’ liability/asset ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
99-IV 00-II00-IV 01-II
01-IV 02-II02-IV 03-II
03-IV 04-II04-IV 05-II
05-IV 06-II06-IV 07-II
07-IV 08-II08-IV 09-II
09-IV 10-II
Per cent Liability/asset ratio
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Savings - Distributed by Company
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
SEB Swedbank Skandia Nordea Handelsbanken LF AMF Alecta
SEK m
01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I 08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I
Slide not updated
Savings Barometer Second Quarter 2010
Savings - Distributed by Assets
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Bank deposits Trad insurance U-L insurance Mutual funds PremiumPensions
Bonds
SEK m
01-I 01-III 02-I 02-III 03-I 03-III 04-I 04-III 05-I 05-III 06-I 06-III 07-I 07-III 08-I08-III 09-I 09-III 10-I
Slide not updated