SEB third quarter 2015 results presentation
-
Upload
sebgroup -
Category
Investor Relations
-
view
686 -
download
1
Transcript of SEB third quarter 2015 results presentation
SEB January–September 2015 Press conference
Annika Falkengren President & CEO
Highlights Q3 2015
2
Increased uncertainty spurred market volatility
Continued strong asset quality and improved capital position
Muted customer activity across most segments
Repricing of risk
3
Swedish credit spreads 5y covered bonds vs. 5y Sovereign
Stock exchanges MSCI World and OMXSPI, Indexed to 100 2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
OMXSPI
MSCI World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
Swedish policy rate
40% 30%
19% 17%
13%
11% 23%
13%
2%
1% 7%
6%
27%
33%
36%
41%
5% 10%
6%
9%
9% 13% 7%
9%
2% 2% 1% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SEB Peer Peer Peer
Other
Institutions
Other retail loans (SME andhouseholds)
Household mortgages
Housing co-operative associations
Real estate
Corporates
Sector credit exposure composition (EAD)1) FY 2014
1) EAD = Risk Exposure Amount / Risk Weight Source: Companies ’ Pillar 3 reports 2014
SEB is a corporate bank and has the lowest exposure to household mortgages and real estate
4
Profit & Loss, (SEK m) Jan-Sep '15 Jan-Sep '14 % Jan-Sep '14 %
Total Operating income 33,677 32,852 3 32,775 34,173 -4whereof NII 14,343 14,933 -4 14,261 14,933 -5whereof NFI 3,769 2,578 46 2,949 2,578 14
Total Operating expenses -16,616 -16,352 2 -16,616 -16,352 2Profit before credit losses 17,061 16,500 3 16,159 17,821 -9Net credit losses etc. -799 -1,050 -24 -799 -1,050 -24
Operating profit 16,262 15,450 5 15,360 16,771 -8Tax expense -3,380 -3,058 -3,380 -3,240Net profit 12,882 12,392 11,980 13,531
Jan-Sep '15
Underlying Reported
5
Financial summary
Key figures Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14 Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14
Return on Equity, % 12.8 13.3 11.9 14.6
Cost /income ratio 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.48
Earnings per share, SEK 5.88 5.72 5.47 6.19
CET1 ratio B3, % 17.8 16.2
Leverage ratio B3, % 4.5 4.1
Credit loss level, % 0.06 0.10
% Q3-14 %
Total Operating income 10,079 11,986 -16 11,332 -11Total Operating expenses -5,452 -5,606 -3 -5,495 -1Profit before credit losses 4,627 6,380 -27 5,837 -21Net credit losses etc. -309 -226 35 -493 -37
Operating profit 4,318 6,154 -30 5,344 -19
Q3-15 Q2-15
4.7
3.7
0.9 0.7
6
Operating income by type, Q3 2015 vs. Q2 2015 (SEK bn)
Profit and loss (SEK m)
Net interest income
Net fee and commissions
Net financial income
Net life insurance income
Q2-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q3-15
Financial summary – excluding one-offs
47%
37%
9% 7%
Q2-15
Income distribution Q3 2015
Net interest income development SEK bn, excluding one-off
7
Net interest income Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Net interest income type Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
3.7 4.1 4.4
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
0.6 0.6 0.2
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
0.5 0.4 0.1
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
Deposits
Funding & other
Lending
14.9 14.3
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep'15
-4%
Net fee and commission income development SEK bn
8
Net fee and commissions Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Gross fee and commissions by income type Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
Custody and mutual funds
Payments, cards, lending, deposits & guarantees
Advisory, secondary markets and derivatives
+9% 11.8
12.8
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15
0.6 0.6 0.6
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
1.6 1.9 2.0
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
2.6 2.6 2.3
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
2.6
3.8
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15
0.8
1.2 1.1 0.8
0.7 0.3
1.3
1.6
0.9
Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15
Net financial income development SEK bn, excluding one-off
9
NFI and total Markets result Q1 2013 – Q1 2015 Net financial income Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Net financial income development Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
Increased volatility in the quarter*
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
* (VIX S&P 500 volatility)
+46%
Operating leverage excluding one-offs Average quarterly income (SEK bn)
9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.2
Avg2010
Avg2011
Avg2012
Avg2013
Avg2014
Jan-Sep2015
Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)
5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Avg2010
Avg2011
Avg2012
Avg2013
Avg2014
Jan-Sep2015
Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn)
Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012, sale of MasterCard shares and Euroline in 2014, Swiss withholding tax in 2015). Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010
3.4 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.5 5.7
Avg2010
Avg2011
Avg2012
Avg2013
Avg2014
Jan-Sep2015
10
Repo rate 1.25 1.75 1.00 0.75 0.00 -0.35 BNP 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.3 3.0(F)
Sweden
Divisional performance Excluding one-offs
11
7.8
4.7
1.9 1.6 1.0
Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic
Operating profit Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 (SEK bn)
RoBE 13.0% (13.6) 14.2% (21.0) 19.8% (19.2) 22.0% (22.2) 18.8% (18.2)*
Business Equity
(SEK bn) 61.5 (52.3) 34.3 (24.4) 9.6 (8.6) 8.4 (8.2) 8.1 (9.1)
Jan-Sep 2015
Jan-Sep 2014
*Excl. Baltic real estate companies
Credit demand and event-driven activities low, but growth in net sales of mutual funds and life insurance
Low event-driven activities in the Nordics*
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Sep'10
Mar'11
Sep'11
Mar'12
Sep'12
Mar'13
Sep'13
Mar'14
Sep'14
Mar'15
Sep'15
…and net sales of SEK 48bn YTD in Sweden (Mutual funds net inflows Swedish market**)
Corporate credit portfolio (SEK bn)
12
19%
22%
25%
8%
7%
6% 13%
SEB
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Peer 5
Other
Total market share Sweden, AuM Peer 6 22% SEB 12% Peer 1 12% Peer 2 11% Peer 5 4% Peer 4 2% Peer 3 1%
Other 36%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-15 Q2 Q3
Deal valueNumber of Deals
Sources: *Dealogic and Thomson Reuters **Svensk Fondstatistik
(SEK bn) 2009 2014 Jan-Sep 2015
Non-performing loans 28.6bn 10.6bn 8.5bn
NPL coverage ratio 65% 59% 63%
Net credit loss level 0.92% 0.09% 0.06%
Customer deposits 750bn 943bn 975bn
Liquidity resources >10% ~25% ~25%
Liquidity coverage ratio N.A. 115% 116%
CET 1 ratio (Basel 3) 11.7% 16.3% 17.8%
Total capital ratio (Basel 3) 14.7% 22.0% 22.7%
Leverage ratio (Basel 3) N.A. 4.8% 4.5%
Strong asset quality and balance sheet A
sset
qua
lity
Fund
ing
and
liqui
dity
C
apita
l Basel 2.5
Basel 2.5
13
Going forward
14
Continued disciplined execution
Resilience and long-term perspective in challenging economic climate
Focus on customer relationships