Seasonality in Tourism Demand - Statistics Explained

15/10/2014 Seasonality in tourism demand - Statistics Explained

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Seasonality_in_tourism_demand 1/12

Figure 1a: Distribution of holiday trips in the four quartersof 2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

Figure 1b: Distribution of nights spent in the four quarters of2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

Seasonality in tourism demandFrom Statistics Explained

Data from July 2010. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.

This article focuses on the seasonal pattern of tourism demand in the European Union (EU),participation in tourism by EU residents, the trips they made and the number of nights spent on thosetrips. Tourism demand includes all trips made, regardless of whether they were spent in touristaccommodation (such as hotels or campsites) or in less formal and often unpaid types of accommodation(such as owned dwellings or accommodation provided for free by friends of relatives).

This analysis from the point of view of thedemand side complements another article onseasonality in the tourist accommodationsector in which the seasonal bias in thesupply by the tourist accommodation sectoris discussed.

Contents1 Main statistical findings

1.1 Overall seasonal pattern1.2 Proportion of population onholiday1.3 Length of holidays1.4 Domestic versus abroad1.5 Business trips1.6 Evolution over time

2 Data sources and availability3 Context4 See also5 Further Eurostat information

5.1 Publications5.2 Main tables5.3 Database5.4 Dedicated section5.5 Source data for tables,figures and maps on this page(MS Excel)5.6 Methodology / Metadata5.7 Other information

6 External links

Main statistical findings

Overall seasonal pattern



Table 1: Share of the resident population (aged 15 or over)who went on holiday at least once during the referencequarter of 2009, broken down by duration of trip

Europeans take 46% of their holidays in the third quarter of the year

In 2009, tourism demand was concentrated in the third quarter, with more than one in three holiday tripsmade in July, August or September. When taking into account the duration of the trips, the seasonalpattern was even more pronounced, with EU residents spending 46 % of all nights away on holiday inthe third quarter of 2009. Short holiday trips, domestic holidays and business trips tended to smoothenthe seasonality of tourism demand. Theincreasing popularity of short trips slightlyreduced the seasonal bias in the period 2004-2009.

Proportion of population on holiday

Almost half of the EU population went onholiday in the 3rd quarter of 2009

During the third quarter of 2009, nearly half(48 %) of all EU residents went on holiday atleast once with at least one overnight stay(see Table 1). During the other three quartersof the year, far fewer EU residents went onholiday, ranging from around one in four toone in three persons. In all countries, theperiod July-September was the most populartime to go on holiday. The biggest infra-annual variation was observed in Cyprus,where 83 % of the population went onholiday in the third quarter of 2009 and only16 % or less travelled at other times of theyear.

When looking at holidays of at least 4 nights,the share of the population that travelledduring the third quarter (35 %) was almostdouble that during the second quarter (19 %).During the first and fourth quarter of 2009,only 13 % of the population went on holidayfor at least 4 nights.

Length of holidays

More than one in three holidays took place during the third quarter. In terms of nights spentaway, 46 % were in the third quarter of 2009, with an even stronger bias for long trips

While the previous section focused on participation in tourism, i.e. the share of the population that wenton holiday at least once during the reference quarter, this section takes a closer look at the time peoplespend on holiday and the number of nights they spent away.

The number of trips made by EU residents in the first and the last quarter of 2009 were both around20 % of the total number of annual trips (see Figure 1a and the left part of Table 2). With somedifferences, this conclusion holds for all Member States. Only in Cyprus did the first and last quarteraccount for less than 10 % of trips. In the second quarter largely overlapping with the spring and in



Table 2: Number of trips and nights spent away by EUresidents in 2009, broken down by quarter

many countries with Easter a slightly higher number of trips was recorded compared to the first andlast quarter. On average across the EU, 26 % of holidays were taken in this quarter. Unsurprisingly, thethird quarter was the most popular period for going on holiday. More than one in three (34 %) holidaytrips in 2009 was made in July, August or September. When looking at the highest average absolutedifference between the four quarterly figures and the average over the quarters, the strongest seasonalpattern in tourism demand was observed in Cyprus, where 70 % of all holiday trips were made in thethird quarter. This quarter was also particularly popular for Greek and Slovenian tourists (both 45 %)and for Italian and Bulgarian tourists (both 43 %). The least pronounced seasonal pattern was recordedfor German tourists, who showed the most equal spread over the four quarters of the year: 21 %, 25 %,29 % and 25 %. Residents of Ireland, Sweden, Finland and Spain also tended to spread their holidaytrips over the year more evenly.

An analysis of the seasonal pattern of the number of nights spent on holiday in other words the lengthof trips shows a similar but morepronounced distribution (see Figure 1b andthe right part of Table 2). While 34% of alltrips were made in the third quarter, thenumber of nights spent on holiday in thethird quarter accounted for 46 % of the totalin 2009. This means a longer averageduration of trips (see Table 3). The averagetrip made in the first, second and fourthquarter lasted 4 to 5 days (nights), in thethird quarter this rose to slightly over a week(7.4 overnight stays for holidays taken byEU residents).

Only one Member State recorded more thanhalf of its holiday trips during the thirdquarter (Cyprus, 70 %), but residents of eightMember States spent more than half of theirholiday nights away during the third quarter.The highest seasonal peak in terms of thethird quarters share in nights spent onholiday was observed in Greece (67 %), Italy(63 %) and Slovenia (59 %). Again, theseasonal pattern was less pronounced in thequarterly number of nights spent away byGerman, Swedish and Finnish tourists.Unsurprisingly, the latter two countries alsorecorded the highest number of holiday trips per person (7 trips per year in Finland, 5 trips per year inSweden). In other words, and as one could expect, more trips per person resulted in a more even spreadof the trips throughout the year.

When looking at the breakdown by duration of trips (see Figures 2 and Table 4), short trips of 1 to 3overnight stays were distributed more evenly over the year compared to longer trips of at least 4overnight stays. Contrary to the general conclusions above, the second quarter was the most popular fortaking short trips (28 % of all short holiday trips on average for the EU, compared to 27 % for the thirdquarter).



Table 3: Average length of holiday trips, per quarter, 2009

In 9 Member States, short holiday trips in "spring" outnumbered short trips in the main summer season.French, Dutch and Portuguese tourists made more than 30 % of their short holiday trips in the secondquarter. Again, Cyprus showed the strongest seasonal bias with 85 % of short trips taken in July, Augustand September. However, for long holiday trips, 44 % of the annual number of long trips made by EUresidents was taken in the third quarter, by far the preferred season for making long trips. In allcountries, the third quarter was the top season for going on holiday. In 8 EU Member States, at least halfof long holiday trips were taken in the third quarter, rising to 60% or more in Greece and Slovenia.

Domestic versus abroad

Only in the third quarter, the share of trips abroad exceeded 25 % of the total

In 2009, EU residents made over 790 000holiday trips in their own Member States(domestic holiday trips) and nearly 245 000holiday trips abroad (see Table 5). Thespread of domestic and trips abroad over thefour quarters of the year is relativelycomparable, with a slightly stronger seasonalpattern for trips abroad (see Figures 3a and3b). The number of domestic holidays takenduring the peak quarter (the third quarter)exceeded the number taken in the troughquarter (the first quarter) by 78 % and thenumber of holiday trips abroad more thandoubled in the peak quarter compared to thetrough quarter.

On average over the year, holidays abroadaccounted for 23.7 % of all holiday trips. Atquarterly level, the share exceeded 25 %only in the third quarter (see Figure 3c).

People tended to take longer holidays duringthe third quarter (see also Table 3), due mostlikely to periods of annual leave or schoolholidays. Given the fixed costs oftransportation, it is unsurprising that theseason during which trips were the longest isalso the most popular season for going ontrips abroad.

Holiday patterns in Europe differed widelyin 2009. In a number of countries, thenumber of trips during the peak season wasmore than twice the number of trips in the trough quarter, both for domestic and foreign trips. This wasthe case in Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. In other countries, such as Ireland, Finland,Sweden and (to a lesser extent) Germany, the seasonal bias was relatively small for both types ofdestination.



Figure 2a: Distribution of short holiday trips in the fourquarters of 2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

Figure 2b: Distribution of long holiday trips in the fourquarters of 2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

In a group of countries, the seasonal pattern for domestic trips was low compared to other countries butthere were strong seasonal fluctuations for trips abroad made by residents. This was especially so inRomania, Slovenia and Slovakia, but also in the Czech Republic and Austria, the difference between thethird and the first quarter was twice as high for trips abroad than for domestic trips. The oppositehappened in Estonia and Croatia, where the pattern of holidays abroad was relatively evenly spreadacross the year but fluctuated more for domestic holiday trips.

The data do not show a link between theimportance of tourism abroad andseasonality of this type of holiday. For nearlyall countries where trips abroad accountedfor 10 % or less of the total number ofholiday trips made in 2009 (Bulgaria,Greece, Spain, France, Portugal andRomania) the seasonal pattern of trips abroaddid not differ much from the EU average.The only exception was Romania, where halfof all holiday trips abroad were made duringthe third quarter (the second highest figure inthe EU, after Slovenia).

Business trips

Business trips showed a less pronouncedseasonal pattern and tended to partlycompensate for the peak and troughperiods

Although reliable statistics on business tripsbroken down by quarter are not available forall Member States, Figures 4a and 4b give anillustration at aggregate level of the 27Member States of the European Union.Business trips were spread more evenly overthe year than holiday trips, with a seasonalvariation ranging from just over 43 millionbusiness trips in the third quarter, or 23 % ofthe annual total, to just under 48 millionbusiness trips in the second quarter, or 26 %of the annual total (EU-27 data, excluding the Netherlands and Malta).

On average over the year, business trips represented around 15 % of all trips made by EU residents. Asshown in Figure 3b, this figure ranged from around 20 % in the first and last quarter of the year to 11 %in the main holiday period, the third quarter.

Evolution over time

In the period 2004-2009, the seasonality of demand for tourism by EU residents fell slightly



Figure 2c: Share of short and long holiday trips, by quarter,2009, EU-27

Table 4: Holiday trips made by the resident population in2009, broken down by length of stay and distribution perquarter

Based on data available on 21 MemberStates for 2004 and 2009, this section takes alook at the trend in recent years of theseasonal bias in tourism demand for non-professional purpose. Although the periodspans only six reference years, some patternsdo emerge.

In all four quarters, both the number ofholiday trips and the number of nights spentaway increased in 2009 compared to thesame quarter in 2004 (see Figures 5a and6a).

However, two important trends arenoticeable.

Firstly, the number of trips increased at afaster pace than the number of nights away,leading to a shorter average length of trip.This phenomenon is apparent all year round.

Secondly, the increases were significantlyhigher during the traditional low seasoncompared to the peak season. In the first andfourth quarter, the number of trips increasedby 19 % and 21 % between 2004 and 2009,while in the second and third quarter theincrease was 14 % and 13 %. A broadlysimilar pattern was observed in the increasein nights spent away during the same quarterin this period, with an increase of 14 %,10 %, 3 % and 7 % in the first, second, thirdand fourth quarter.

Between 2004 and 2009, Europeans slightlychanged their tourism behaviour and tendedto take additional holidays during thetraditional low season rather than in the peakseason. Given the reduction in the averagelength of trips, these additional trips tendedto be shorter. The statistics on participationin tourism (not shown in the Figures) alsoindicated an increase between 2004 and 2009in the number of persons who went on holiday at least once in the first or the fourth quarter, compared tothe second or third quarter.

The relatively stronger demand for tourism during the low season (first and fourth quarter) led to areduction in seasonal variation, as shown in the quarterly distribution of holiday trips and nights inFigures 5b and 6b. The share of the first quarter in the total number of holiday trips increased by 0.5percentage points between 2004 and 2009 while the share of the third quarter dropped by 0.8 percentagepoints. The number of nights spent away increased by 0.9 percentage points in the first quarter and fell



Figure 3a: Distribution of domestic holiday trips in the fourquarters of 2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

Figure 3b: Distribution of holiday trips abroad in the fourquarters of 2009 [sum=100%], EU-27

by 1.7 percentage points in the third quarter.

Data sources and availability

Directive 95/57/EC (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0057:EN:NOT) on the collection of statistical information in the field of tourismorganises the European Statistical System of tourism statistics. This system consists of two maincomponents: statistics on capacity and occupancy of tourist accommodation and statistics on tourismdemand. The former are collected in mostMember States via surveys filled in byaccommodation establishments, while thelatter are mostly collected by means oftraveller surveys at the border or viatraditional household surveys.

Statistics on the occupancy of touristaccommodation refer to the number ofarrivals (at accommodation establishments)and the number of nights spent by residentsand non-residents, broken down by type ofestablishment or by region. Both annual andmonthly series are available. Statistics on theuse of beds (occupancy rates) are alsocompiled.

Statistics on the demand for tourism look atparticipation, i.e. the number of residentsthat make at least one trip of at least fourovernight stays during the reference period(quarter, year). They also look at the numberof tourism trips made (and the number ofnights spent on those trips), broken down bytourism-related variables such as country ofdestination, month of departure, length ofstay, type of organisation of the trip, mode oftransport, type of accommodation orexpenditure, and by socio-demographicvariables, such as age or gender. Annual andquarterly series are available. This article is based on the data on tourism demand.

Context

In June 2010, the European Commission released a Communication entitled "Europe, the world's No 1tourist destination - a new political framework for tourism in Europe"(http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/tourism/files/communications/communication2010_en.pdf). Oneof the challenges and opportunities facing the European tourism industry is the seasonal distribution ofdemand for tourism. Better use of existing tourist infrastructure and staff in the low season could helpbusinesses improve their productivity and benefit from a more stable and motivated workforce.Extending the tourism season or spreading tourism activities more evenly throughout the year cansignificantly boost the sustainability and competitiveness of European tourist destinations.



Figure 3c: Share of domestic and outbound holiday trips, byquarter, 2009, EU-27

Table 5: Holiday trips made by the resident population in2009, broken down by destination and distribution perquarter

See also

Seasonality in the touristaccommodation sectorTourism statisticsTourism statistics at regional levelTourism trends

Further Eurostatinformation

Publications

Recent Eurostat publications ontourism

(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/tourism/publications)

Main tables

Tourism (t_tour) (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/tourism/data/main_tables)

Hotels and similar establishments (tin00039)Other collective accommodation establishments (tin00040)Bed places in hotels and similar establishments (tin00041)



Figure 4a: Distribution of business trips in 2009[sum=100%], EU-27

Figure 4b: Share of holiday and business trips, by quarter,2009, EU-27

Figure 5a: Number of holiday trips per quarter, 2004 and2009, EU-27

Bed places in other collective accommodation establishments (tin00042)Arrivals in hotels and similar establishments (tin00047)Arrivals in other collective accommodation establishments (tin00048)Nights spent in hotels and similar establishments (tin00043)Nights spent in other collective accommodation establishments (tin00044)Tourists (tin00045)Trips (tin00046)

Database

Tourism (tour)

(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/tourism/data/database)



Figure 5b: Distribution of holiday trips per quarter, 2004 and2009 [sum of four quarters in each year = 100%],EU-27

Figure 6a: Number of nights spent away per quarter, 2004and 2009, EU-27

Figure 6b: Distribution of nights spent away per quarter,2004 and 2009 [sum of four quarters in each year =100%],EU-27

Tourism demand : domestic and outbound tourism (excluding day-trips) (tour_dem)

Number of tourists(tour_dem_to)Number of tourism trips(tour_dem_tt)Number of tourism nights(tour_dem_tn)Expenditure on tourism trips(tour_dem_ex)

Dedicated section

Tourism statistics

(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/tourism/introduction)

Source data for tables, figures and maps on this page (MS Excel)

Download Excel file



Methodology / Metadata

Tourism demand : domestic and outbound tourism (excluding day-trips)(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_SDDS/en/tour_dem_esms.htm) (ESMS metadata file- tour_dem_esms)Tourism statistics in the European Statistical System - 2008 data(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=KS-RA-10-010&language=en)

Other information

With 2012 as reference year:

Regulation 692/2011 (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32011R0692:EN:NOT) of 6 July 2011 concerning European statistics ontourism and repealing Council Directive 95/57/EC.Regulation 1051/2011 (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32011R1051:EN:NOT) of 20 October 2011 implementing Regulation692/2011 concerning European statistics on tourism, as regards the structure of the qualityreports and the transmission of the data.

Previous legal acts (concerning reference periods before 2012):

Directive 95/57/EC (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0057:EN:NOT) of 23 November 1995 on the collection of statisticalinformation in the field of tourism.Commission Decision 1999/35/CE (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31999D0035:EN:NOT) of 9 December 1998 on the procedures forimplementing Council Directive 95/57/EC on the collection of statistical information in thefield of tourism.Commission Decision 2004/883/CE (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32004D0883:EN:NOT) of 10 December 2004 adjusting the Annex to CouncilDirective 95/57/EC on the collection of statistical information in the field of tourism asregards country lists.Directive 2006/110/EC (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32006L0110:EN:NOT) of 20 November 2006 adapting Directives 95/57/ECand 2001/109/EC in the field of statistics, by reason of the accession of Bulgaria andRomania.

External links

Agenda for a sustainable and competitive European tourism (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2007:0621:FIN:EN:PDF) (Communicationfrom the European Commission, October 2007)European Commission - Enterprise and Industry - Supporting European tourism(http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/tourism/index_en.htm)

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Seasonality in Tourism Demand - Statistics Explained

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