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Seasonal diagnostic and temporal variability of the daily precipitation in Argentina Departamento de...
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Transcript of Seasonal diagnostic and temporal variability of the daily precipitation in Argentina Departamento de...
Seasonal diagnostic and temporal variability of the daily
precipitation in Argentina
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos-FCEyN-UBA
Olga C. Penalba, Federico Robledo
Probability of daily precipitation events
Daily percentiles Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Objectives
Analyze the annual cycle of the following properties:
Probability of daily precipitation events
Daily percentiles Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Objectives
Special interest in extreme events and very heavy
rainfall
Analyze the temporal variability of:
Data set
Daily rainfall information
40 rain gauges
Missing data < 10%
Quality control
Period
1961-2003
1908-2003
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Analysis
For each station and over its whole period
50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of daily precipitationProbability of daily rainfall exceeding a threshold
0.1, 10, 50, 80 and 100 mm 75th, 90th and 95th
percentiles
Persistence of rainday and no rainday
Probability of rainday when the day before was a rainday
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Corrientes
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
Pilar
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
9 de Julio
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mmMar del Plata
0
20
40
60
80
1 92 183 274 365
mm
Annual cycle of 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of daily precipitation amount
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12
Mean of 50th percentile of daily rainfall (mm/day) per month
Mean of 95th percentile of daily rainfall (mm/day) per month
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 15 to 20 20 to 25 25 to 30 30 to 35 35 to 40 40 to 45 45 to 50 50 to 55 55 to 60
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Corrientes
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Pilar
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
9 de Julio
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Mar del Plata
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 92 183 274
Annual cycle of relative frequency of daily precipitation that exceeds 0.1 mm
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 0 .1 0 .1 to 0.2 0 .2 to 0.3 0 .3 to 0.4 0 .4 to 0.5 0 .5 to 0.6
Relative frequency of daily precipitation events exceeding 10 mm/day
-40
-35
-30
-25
January April
July October
-40
-35
-30
-25
-70 -65 -60 -55-40
-35
-30
-25
-70 -65 -60 -55-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
0 to 0 .04 0 .04 to 0 .08 0 .08 to 0 .12 0 .12 to 0 .16 0 .16 to 0 .2
Monthly mean of persistence of rainday
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
J anuary April
J uly October
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
0 to 0 .05 0 .05 to 0 .1 0 .1 to 0 .15 0 .15 to 0 .2 0 .2 to 0 .25 0 .25 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .35
Temporal variability
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Tres Arroyos3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Annual January October
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Nueve de Julio
PilarPilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Tres Arroyos
Annual January October
Corrientes
Nueve de Julio
Pilar
3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Pilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Corrientes
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
3 Arroyos
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual9 de julio
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
Pilar
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
abril Jul anual
Annual July April
Rosario
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anualSta Rosa
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene oct anual
Relative frequency of daily precipitation
Sta Rosa
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene Octu Anual Rosario
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
1908 1916 1924 1932 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996
ene Octu Anual
greater than 10 mm
greater than 0.1 mm
Santa Rosa Rosario
Annual January July
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-1 to -0 .5 -0 .5 to -0 .3 -0 .3 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .5 0 .5 to 1
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 0.1 mm
Kendall´s tau (filled squares: significant at p<0.05)
Trend
-1 to -0 .5 -0 .5 to -0 .3 -0 .3 to 0 .3 0 .3 to 0 .5 0 .5 to 1
Relative frequency of daily precipitation > 95thpercentile
Kendall´s tau (filled squares: significant at p<0.05)
Trend
Annual January July
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55
Extreme events and very heavy rainfall
Daily rainfall > 50 and 80 mm uncommon
-70 -65 -60 -55
-40
-35
-30
-25
Daily rainfall > 100 mm
4
10
74
16
Autumn > Spring