SEA LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE:THE CHALLENGE AHEAD

BRADY SMITH, AICP, CFMDIRECTOR OF RESILIENCE

TAMPA BAY REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL

TAMPA BAY REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCILMISSION STATEMENT

TO SERVE OUR CITIZENS AND MEMBER GOVERNMENTS BY PROVIDING A FORUM TO FOSTER COMMUNICATION, COORDINATION, AND

COLLABORATION IN IDENTIFYING AND ADDRESSING NEEDS REGIONALLY.

IN OTHER WORDS, TBRPC IS…“THE CONVENER OF THE REGION”

THE TAMPA BAY REGION IS…▪ Citrus County

▪ Hernando County

▪ Hillsborough County

▪ Manatee County

▪ Pasco County

▪ Pinellas County

6 Counties

49 Municipalities

5,000 Square Miles

3.4 Million People

TO THE EFFECTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE

VULNERABLE

THE TAMPA BAY REGION IS…

HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS▪ 2017 Hurricane Irma affected the entire Tampa Bay region

and nearly all of the state

▪ The Tampa Bay region is consistently cited as one of the most hurricane-vulnerable places in the country and the world

FLOODING▪ Intense summertime thunderstorms and other rainfall events

saturate the ground, fill rivers and streams

▪ Flood events have been common in the Tampa Bay area in recent yeas

SEA LEVEL RISE▪ The mean sea level at the St. Petersburg tide gauge has risen

6.6 inches since 1947▪ 8 inches per century

TBRPC & SEA LEVEL RISE▪ Produced a Sea Level Rise study for the Tampa Bay region in

2006

▪ Part of project team for Hillsborough County MPO Transportation Vulnerability Analysis in 2014

▪ 2014 to present – ONE BAY Resilient Communities▪ Convening the region to share knowledge and develop solution

related to regional resilience▪ Sea level rise has been a key issue since ONE BAY Resilient

Communities began▪ TBRPC participates in Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP)

▪ Developed regional projections of sea level rise for the Tampa Bay coastal areas through 2100

TAMPA BAY CLIMATE SCIENCE ADVISORY PANEL (C-SAP)▪ Formulate a recommended projection of sea-level rise for use

throughout the Tampa Bay region

▪ Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel convened by UF/IFAS Extension, Florida Sea Grant

▪ Membership includes federal agencies (USACE, USGS, NOAA), regional agencies (TBW, TBEP, TBRPC, SWFWMD), and university partners.

▪ Completed in August 2015

▪ Submitted to TBRPC in October 2015

SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE TAMPA BAY REGION

SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE TAMPA BAY REGION

OTHER POTENTIAL CLIMATE ISSUES AFFECTING THE FUTURE OF THE REGION▪ Heat stress

▪ Daytime high temperatures on average up to 8 degrees higher than current by 2100

▪ Hurricane intensity▪ Potential for a major hurricane once a decade instead of once a

century because of increases ocean temperatures

▪ Increased frequency/intensity of flood and drought events▪ Changes in global weather patterns may prolong wet and/or dry

periods in the region

TO THE THREATS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE

ADAPT

THE TAMPA BAY REGION CAN…

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