SDM Tiny Intro
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Transcript of SDM Tiny Intro
STRUCTURED DECISION
MAKING
FOR CONSERVATION
AND NATURAL RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
A TINY INTRO BY
SUZANNE HAGELL
“IF YOU ARE A MANAGER,
ALL PATHS LEAD TO A
DECISION.”
Gregory et al. 2012
DECISIONS = CHOICES
OUTCOMES
RESULT FROM CHOICE + CHANCE EVENTS
CHOICE
IS HOW YOU CONTROL OUTCOMES
CLEAR THINKING
IS ABOUT ANALYZING DECISIONS SO YOU HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A GOOD OUTCOME
KEENEY (2004)
MAKING BETTER DECISION MAKERS
FOR DECISIONS „WORTHY OF THOUGHT‟
WE USE CLEAR THINKING TO SOLVE 4%
WE SHOULD INCREASE THIS TO 75%
FAMILIAR
APPROACHES
• PROMOTE
OBJECTIVITY
• FOCUS ON
ACTIONS
• SIMPLIFY
DECISIONS
CLEAR
THINKING
• PROMOTES
SUBJECTIVITY
• FOCUSES ON
VALUES
• STRUCTURES
DECISIONS
THINK ABOUT YOUR:
ONE-OFF DECISIONS
HIRING
ALLOCATING FUNDS
LINKED DECISIONS
SETTING HARVEST LEVELS
SCREENING PROCESSES
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
THESE DECISIONS ARE:
WORTHY OF THOUGHT
AFFECTED BY OUR VALUES
AFFECTED BY UNCERTAINTY
WHAT YOU‟LL LEARN FROM
STRUCTURED DECISION MAKING
Tradeoffs & Optimization
Decide & Take Action
Problem
Objectives
Alternatives
Consequences
Iterate
THESE STEPS
ADDRESS:
VALUES
UNCERTAINTY
TRANSPARENCY
SCIENCE
NEXT STEPS:
GET TRAINED
GET PRACTICE
Hammod et al 1999
Gregory et al 2012
WHERE TO START
http://nctc.fws.gov/courses/SDM/courses/overview.html