1

Scripps Inst. of OceanographyUniversity of California at San Diego

Oakland, California, October 18, 2013

V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, February 04, 2014. Delhi Poliicy Conclave

Lin et al, LANCET, 2013

Air Pollution is a Major Killer

Ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) premature deaths every year.

Indoor pollution (cooking/heating smoke) kills another 3.2 million per yea

Air pollution reduced 75-90% despite growthReproduced from: B. Croes, 2013 (CARB)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

19

68

-20

08

CarbonMonoxide

NitrogenDioxide

SulfurDioxide

Population Number of Vehicles

VehicleMiles

3

Ozone – Los Angeles peak cut over 70%, hours of exposure reduced 90%PM10 – annual-average levels cut 75% Air toxics – over 80% cancer risk reduction (since 1989)

4Source: Bahadur et al, 2010 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

The Air we breathe is getting better:Statewide BC Trends in California-Annual Mean

(Remote Sites)

Co-Benefit of Diesel Black Carbon Reduction To Climate Change Mitigation

The reduction in diesel BC emissions from 1989 to 2008, is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 21 (to 50) million metric tons annually

5Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

California’s CO2 emission (2009 ): 393 MMT/Yr

However, simultaneous mitigation of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is essential to limit global warming below 2oC.

6

ICAMP: PROCESS

7

SCIENCEPM & Ozone (NOX)Trucks/Buses/Three

wheelers

SCIENCEPM & Ozone (NOX)Trucks/Buses/Three

wheelers

TechnologySoot &Nox reduction

Engines/Sulphur content of fuel/Filters

TechnologySoot &Nox reduction

Engines/Sulphur content of fuel/Filters

EVALUATION OF PILOT CITIESEVALUATION OF PILOT CITIES

8

Targeting air pollution emissions from the transportation sector has huge benefits for human health and food security. It also has a major co-benefit of mitigating climate change immediately since the warming pollutants in the transport emissions (black carbon and ozone) have very short life times (weeks to months)

9

10

Drastic reduction (more than 90%) of PM and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the transportation sector, primarily diesel vehicles (on-road and off-road) and buses, would have the largest and most immediate beneficial impact on human health, food and water supply, and regional to global climate change.

Technologies to improve engine emissions and to distill ultra-low sulphur fuels are available and can be implemented successfully on a large scale. More importantly, California has demonstrated that these pollutants can be mitigated drastically without slowing down economic development

There is a large potential to reduce diesel particulate matter (PM) emissions by implementing stricter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards. Nation-wide switching to BS-IV standards (50 ppm sulphur) by 2015 and to BS-V standards (10 ppm sulfur) by 2017, would have a perceptible impact on the air we breathe.

We strongly endorse India’s National Urban Transport Policy approach of “Avoid (transport use), Shift (from high to lower-emission forms of transport), and Improve (transport technology to reduce emissions).

11

State governments in India have enormous potential as the locus for comprehensive, integrated air quality management, while building state leadership will require national funding to both motivate and enable action.

A coordinated (between academia and government) observational and modeling effort is required to develop Science Based Policy directives and to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation actions in improving ambient air quality and human health.