Scottish Executive’sFutures Work

Strategy UnitNovember 2006

The Futures Project

Where are we now? Strategic Audit

Where could we be? Trends Analysis Futures Workshops

What does this mean? Applying the thinking.

Strategic Audit: Mean scores for 15 year olds (PISA 2003)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Finland

Korea

Canada

Australia

New Zea

land

SCOTLAN

D

Ireland

Sweden

Netherla

nds

Belgiu

m

Norw

ay

Switzerland

Japan

France

United Sta

tes

Denm

ark

Iceland

Germ

any

Austria

Czech

Republic

OECD

total

Spain

Portugal

Italy

Greece

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Finland

Korea

Netherlands

Japan

Canada

Belgium

Switzerland

Australia

SCOTLAND

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Iceland

Denmark

France

Sweden

Austria

Germany

Ireland

Norway

OECD total

Spain

United States

Portugal

Italy

Greece

Source: OECD and Scottish Executive

Reading Maths

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Fin

land

Japan

Kore

a

Austra

lia

Neth

erla

nds

Cze

ch R

epublic

New Zealand

Canada

SCOTL

AND

Switz

erla

nd

Fra

nce

Belgiu

m

Sweden

Ireland

Germ

any

Poland

OECD to

tal

Icela

nd

Unite

d Sta

tes

Austria

Spain

Italy

Norw

ay

Gre

ece

Denm

ark

Portu

gal

Science

Strategic Audit: Participation in Higher Education above OECD and UK averages

Tertiary Type A (First Degree) entry rate - 2003

Source: OECD and Scottish ExecutiveNote: The Entry Rate refers to the proportion of people who will enter tertiary type A (first degree level) programmesin their lifetime if current entry rates continue.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Icela

nd

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

d

Sw

ed

en

Fin

lan

d

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

No

rwa

y

Au

stralia

US

A

Sco

tlan

d

Italy

De

nm

ark

OE

CD

Ave

rag

e

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Ko

rea

UK

Sp

ain

Jap

an

Irela

nd

Slo

vak R

ep

ub

lic

Fra

nce

Sw

itzerla

nd

Ge

rma

ny

Au

stria

Be

lgiu

m

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

Me

xico

Tu

rkey

Strategic Audit: A high share of young people not in education, employment or training

Source: OECD and Scottish ExecutiveNote: Data for Italy, United States and Netherlands are for 2002

% of 15 – 19 year olds not in employment, education or training (NEET)2003

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Fra

nce

Slo

vak R

ep

ub

lic

Sco

tlan

d

Italy

Fin

lan

d

UK

Gre

ece

Po

rtug

al

Sw

itzerla

nd

Sp

ain

Be

lgiu

m

US

A

Hu

ng

ary

Au

stralia

Ca

na

da

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

Au

stria

Irela

nd

Ge

rma

ny

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Sw

ed

en

Po

lan

d

De

nm

ark

Strategic Audit: Our GDP per head is in the mid-range

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Norway

United States

Ireland

Switzerland

Netherlands

Iceland

Austria

Australia

Denmark

Canada

Belgium

Sweden

United Kingdom

Finland

Japan

France

Scotland (estimated)

Germany

Italy

Spain

New Zealand

Greece

Korea (Republic of)

Czech Republic

Portugal

Hungary

Slovak Republic

Poland

Mexico

Turkey

GDP per head, OECD countries 2003 ($US current purchasing power)

Source: OECD/Scottish Executive

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Germany

Spain

Denmark

France

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Finland

UK

Scotland

Strategic Audit: Employment levels are high in the European context

Source: Eurostat and Labour Force Survey/Annual Population SurveyNote: Germany figure includes East Germany; Data refer to 15-64 year olds

Annual average employment rate (%)1992 - 2005 Our employment rate

is currently above the UK

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

Strategic Audit: Our historical trend of large scale emigration seems to have ended

Source: GROS

Scottish net migration1952 - 2005 (000’s)

Net-migration in the last 2 years highest since

records began

Strategic Audit: life expectancy is lower than many comparable countries

Source: Eurostat and GAD

Life expectancy at birth – femalesSelected countries - 2003

Life expectancy at birth – malesSelected countries - 2003

60

70

80

90

Japan

Spain

France

Italy

Australia

Iceland

Sweden

Norway

Finland

Austria

Germany

Netherlands

Greece

UK Portugal

Denmark

Scotland

Poland

Czech Republic

Mexico

Hungary

Turkey

60

65

70

75

80

Iceland

Japan

Sweden

Australia

Spain

Norway

Italy

Netherlands

UK France

Austria

Germany

Greece

Finland

Denmark

Portugal

Scotland

Mexico

Czech Republic

Poland

Hungary

Turkey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

Scotland

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Spain

Sweden

U.K.

USA

Strategic Audit: Significant factor is our poor record in the major causes of death – although some improvement within Scotland

Source: OECD Health Data 2005Note: Data not available for Scotland for all years

Coronary heart disease deaths per 100,000 population - males

Source: ISD Scotland/Scottish ExecutiveNote: Data standardised to European Population

Scottish coronary heart disease deaths per 100,000 population (under 75)

Over 40% reduction between 1995 to 2004

Rise in liver cirrhosis levels in Scotland – linked to rising alcohol consumption?

0

5

10

15

20

25

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Denmark

France

Ireland

Italy

Sweden

Scotland

Austria

Czech Republic

Germany

P ortugal

P oland

Finland

UK

Spain

Greece

Norway

Netherlands

EU - 15

Standardised death rates due to chronic liver disease and cirrhosisall ages per 100000 persons

Source: WHO and Scottish Executive

Number of alcohol related deaths in Scotland rose by 240%

between 1980 and 2003

Strategic Audit: long-term recorded crimeis falling while clear-ups are rising

Source: Scottish ExecutiveNote: Change in trend in 2004 can be attributed to the introduction of the Scottish Crime RecordingStandards from April of that year

Number of recorded crimes & clear up rates (%) in Scotland

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

Cle

ar

up

ra

tes

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

No

of c

rim

es

Clear Up rate Recorded Crimes Clear up trend Trend for Recorded Crimes

Summary of where we are:Challenges

Long-term economic growth rate Inequality, poverty and economic

inactivity Access to opportunities for young

people currently not in education, employment or training

Health record – including attitudes to diet, smoking and alcohol

Changing demographic make-up Levels of violent crime.

Summary of where we are:Strengths

Strong – and well qualified – labour market Schools have generally strong levels of

educational attainment Universities performing strongly in terms of

research and citations Progress in reducing poverty – particularly

for children and pensioners Improvements made against some key

health indicators.

Issues around Trends and Horizon Scanning

Not about predicting the future But a range of choices and options Uses a number of techniques

Strengthen awareness about what might happen in the future and

what we could do about it

Where might we be? Trends Analysis

Globalisation Life Course Individualism Media &

Technology Politics & Govt Shape of Society Employment Sustainability

Trends Analysis – Where might we be?

Future Issues – Life Course

More solo-living Living longer – but not

that healthily A growing problem

with alcohol Mental illness the

biggest problem of the 21st Century?

Number of alcohol related deaths in Scotland 1980-2003

There will be pressure on resources (human, energy,

financial)

Where might we be?Some Relative Certainties

There is no alternativeto Globalisation

An ageing population will occur

Expectations of govt by its citizens will rise

Technology will continue to impact on our lives

Scotland a strong niche player?

Scotland at the mercy of globalisation?

Older people valued and contributing?

Older people dependent & disadvantaged?Managed approach?

At mercy of wider factors?

New understanding between Govt & citizen?

Increasing dissatisfaction?

Ahead of the curve?

We don’t take full advantage?

Next Steps

1. First Minister’s Lecture2. Applying the thinking

The demographic opportunity The global opportunity Education and Learning

3. Linkage to the Strategic Platform