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Transcript of ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Navigating a Stormy MarketScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner
Data Centres and Cloud
Application Development
IT Services
eCommerce
Social
Data Management
Data Centres and Cloud
By 2015, 40% of net new business
process services will be delivered as
business process as a service (BPaaS).
Frances Karamouzis
By 2015, 40% of the most successful
CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut
costs and generate new revenue in
order to outperform competitors.
Claudio Da Rold
By 2015, the cloud will propel
enterprises back to a best-of-breed
mind-set for innovating and
differentiating the ERP.
Jim Shepherd
Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS
customers will experience higher
than expected costs.
Robert DeSisto
By 2015, 40% of net new business
process services will be delivered as
business process as a service (BPaaS).
Frances Karamouzis
By 2015, 40% of the most successful
CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut
costs and generate new revenue in
order to outperform competitors.
Claudio Da Rold
By 2015, the cloud will propel
enterprises back to a best-of-breed
mind-set for innovating and
differentiating the ERP.
Jim Shepherd
Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS
customers will experience higher
than expected costs.
Robert DeSisto
Data Centres and Cloud
Through 2013, 60% of enterprise IT
public cloud adoption projects
will involve the redeployment of
unchanged applications to IaaS
or backward- compatible PaaS.
Yefim Natis
By 2013, at least 20% of
organizations using SaaS deployments
will move them back on-premises.
Sharon Mertz
By 2015, 30% of midsize
businesses will adopt recovery-in-the-cloud services
to support IT operations recovery.
John Morency
By 2016, due to cloud computing,
75% of IT organizations
without better IT demand
management will end up spending
more on IT.
Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski
By 2015, 40% of net new business
process services will be delivered as
business process as a service (BPaaS).
Frances Karamouzis
By 2015, 40% of the most successful
CIOs will use cloud sourcing to cut
costs and generate new revenue in
order to outperform competitors.
Claudio Da Rold
By 2015, the cloud will propel
enterprises back to a best-of-breed
mind-set for innovating and
differentiating the ERP.
Jim Shepherd
Through 2014, at least 50% of SaaS
customers will experience higher
than expected costs.
Robert DeSisto
Data Centres and Cloud
Through 2013, 60% of enterprise IT
public cloud adoption projects
will involve the redeployment of
unchanged applications to IaaS
or backward- compatible PaaS.
Yefim Natis
By 2013, at least 20% of
organizations using SaaS deployments
will move them back on-premises.
Sharon Mertz
By 2015, 30% of midsize
businesses will adopt recovery-in-the-cloud services
to support IT operations recovery.
John Morency
By 2016, due to cloud computing,
75% of IT organizations
without better IT demand
management will end up spending
more on IT.
Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski
Cloud adoption in Europe will be
delayed by at least two years, due to
the fragmentation of regulations and privacy rules.
Paolo Malinverno
By 2015, 30% of infrastructure as a
service (IaaS) providers will lose the price war and exit the market.
Frank Ridder
By 2016, 50% of organizations will
source their UC on a utility subscription model, up from less
than 5% today.
Steve Blood
Scottish implications
• Cloud opportunities may be delayed by 2 years due to regulation
• Cloud will generate highly variable business outcomes
• Many applications will be deployed unchanged, with a reduced opportunity for re-platform/re-development projects
• Cloud providers need to be wary of the rush to the bottom in IaaS
6
Application Development
Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript
with proprietary client-side Web programming
languages will fail.
Eric Knipp
By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the
use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the
growth rate of Adobe Flash and
Microsoft Silverlight.
Gene Phifer
Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend
more of their IT budget on application
integration than on building new applications.
Yefim Natis
By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or
off.
Tom Austin
Application Development
Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript
with proprietary client-side Web programming
languages will fail.
Eric Knipp
By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the
use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the
growth rate of Adobe Flash and
Microsoft Silverlight.
Gene Phifer
Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend
more of their IT budget on application
integration than on building new applications.
Yefim Natis
By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or
off.
Tom Austin
By 2015, 50% of business
applications use by managers and
casual users will be via mobile devices.
Christian Hestermann
By 2014, more than 65% of user-
developed cloud applications will
employ advanced IMC technology to
meet QoS requirements.
Massimo Pezzini
By 2015, up to 15% of user identities will be partly vetted and authenticated using
mobile location services, up from
less than 1% today.
Avivah Litan
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
business applications will
incorporate social user styles,
conventions and information feeds
for the user experience.
Jenny Sussin
Application DevelopmentApplication Development
Through 2020, attempts to displace browser JavaScript
with proprietary client-side Web programming
languages will fail.
Eric Knipp
By 2014, in new websites targeted to mobile devices, the
use of wrapped HTML will have at least 10 times the
growth rate of Adobe Flash and
Microsoft Silverlight.
Gene Phifer
Through 2016, organizations will continue to spend
more of their IT budget on application
integration than on building new applications.
Yefim Natis
By 2014, 30 of the most popular 100 Web applications will work online or
off.
Tom Austin
By 2015, 50% of business
applications use by managers and
casual users will be via mobile devices.
Christian Hestermann
By 2014, more than 65% of user-
developed cloud applications will
employ advanced IMC technology to
meet QoS requirements.
Massimo Pezzini
By 2015, up to 15% of user identities will be partly vetted and authenticated using
mobile location services, up from
less than 1% today.
Avivah Litan
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
business applications will
incorporate social user styles,
conventions and information feeds
for the user experience.
Jenny Sussin
By 2016, most collaboration
applications will be equally available on
desktops, mobile phones, tablets and
browsers.
Monica Basso
By 2015, 30% of users accessing
enterprise networks or high-value Web applications from smartphones or tablets will use
biometric authentication.
Ant Allan
By 2015, more than 70% of new sales
application projects will be SaaS.
Robert DeSisto
In 2015, more than half of new business
applications will leverage event
streams to improve situation awareness
and decision effectiveness.
Roy Schulte
Scottish implications
• Applications will need to work offline and online
• Applications will increasingly adopt social techniques within them
• Application and platform security methods are rapidly evolving
• Event-stream processing and in-memory technology are technologies to watch
10
IT Services
By 2016, 50% of new integration
projects will involve on-premises
applications, e-commerce trading partners and cloud
services.
Benoit Lheureux
By 2015, adoption of "as a service"
models will replace 15% of low-cost,
competitive-parity-driven outsourcing
deals.
Frances Karamouzis and Jim Longwood
By 2015, 25% of midsize businesses in mature markets will virtualize one-third of their PCs, over double the large-enterprise
rate.
Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa
By 2015, 80% of IT organizations will reach resource breaking points, under intense
pressure to deliver the right project resources just in
time.
Donna Fitzgerald et al
By 2016, 50% of new integration
projects will involve on-premises
applications, e-commerce trading partners and cloud
services.
Benoit Lheureux
By 2015, adoption of "as a service"
models will replace 15% of low-cost,
competitive-parity-driven outsourcing
deals.
Frances Karamouzis and Jim Longwood
By 2015, 25% of midsize businesses in mature markets will virtualize one-third of their PCs, over double the large-enterprise
rate.
Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa
By 2015, 80% of IT organizations will reach resource breaking points, under intense
pressure to deliver the right project resources just in
time.
Donna Fitzgerald et al
IT Services
By 2016, most collaboration
applications will be equally available on
desktops, mobile phones, tablets and
browsers.
Monica Basso
By 2015, 20% of the market-leading IT service providers not investing in industrialization
through demonstrated
nonlinear revenue will be at risk.
Sandra Notardonato and Claudio Da
Rold
By 2016, 20% of IT organizations in
growth enterprises will set a goal of increasing grow-and-transform IT
spending to 50% of their annual
expenditures.
Kurt Potter, Barbara Gomolski
Through 2015, security incidents
will increase 25% or more in
organizations that adopt BYOD without reinvesting at least
one-third of the savings in security.
Lawrence Orans and John Pescatore
Scottish implications
• Beware of margin crunch and XaaS substitution effect
• Reliance on labor-based models is risky; industrialization and automation
• Resource constraints in customers may become an impediment to new business
13
eCommerce
By year-end 2012, more than 50% of greenfield social
commerce initiatives will fail to drive
sales beyond what had been obtained
from existing e-commerce activities.
Praveen Sengar
By 2014, customer fallout will drive down customer
satisfaction in 70% of organizations that
shift customer support to
communities.
Jenny Sussin and Carol Rozwell
By 2015, 50% of online customer
self-service search activities will be via
a VA for at least 1,500 large enterprises.
Johan Jacobs
By 2015, the marketing budget
allocated to retaining customers
and increasing loyalty through
customer service will more than
double.
Kimberly Collins and Jenny Sussin
eCommerce
By year-end 2012, more than 50% of greenfield social
commerce initiatives will fail to drive sales beyond
what had been obtained from
existing e-commerce activities.
Praveen Sengar
By 2014, customer fallout will drive down customer
satisfaction in 70% of organizations that
shift customer support to
communities.
Jenny Sussin and Carol Rozwell
By 2015, 50% of online customer
self-service search activities will be via
a VA for at least 1,500 large enterprises.
Johan Jacobs
By 2015, the marketing budget
allocated to retaining customers
and increasing loyalty through
customer service will more than
double.
Kimberly Collins and Jenny Sussin
By 2014, refusing to communicate with
customers via social channels will be as harmful as ignoring
emails or phone calls is today.
Jeffrey Mann, Carol Rozwell
By 2015, at least 25% of new CEOs
at Fortune 500 manufacturers and retailers will have deep supply chain
experience.
Noha Tohamy et al
By 2014, organizations
integrating communities into customer support will realize cost
reductions ranging from 10% to 50%.
Michael Maoz
Scottish implications
• Social and eCommerce segments are converging
• Social commerce, though, will have mixed results
• Community-based customer support will have mixed impact on margin and CSAT
• Marketing needs to focus more on retention not just acquisition
• Automated agents are worth watching as a technology
16
Social
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
business applications will
incorporate social user styles,
conventions and information feeds
for the user experience.
Jenny Sussin
By year-end 2014, at least one social
network provider will become an
insurance sales channel
Juergen Weiss
By YE2012, over 60% of Fortune 500
companies will actively be
engaging customers with Facebook
marketing, up from 20% today
Adam Sarner
By year-end 2013, B2B organizations using social CRM will represent 25%
of all projects worldwide, which is
an increase from fewer than 10% in
2011
Ed Thompson
Social
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
business applications will
incorporate social user styles,
conventions and information feeds
for the user experience.
Jenny Sussin
By year-end 2014, at least one social
network provider will become an
insurance sales channel
Juergen Weiss
By YE2012, over 60% of Fortune 500
companies will actively be
engaging customers with Facebook
marketing, up from 20% today
Adam Sarner
By year-end 2013, B2B organizations using social CRM will represent 25%
of all projects worldwide, which is
an increase from fewer than 10% in
2011
Ed Thompson
By 2014, refusing to communicate with
customers via social channels will be as harmful as ignoring
emails or phone calls is today.
Jeffrey Mann, Carol Rozwell
By 2014, less than 20% of large
enterprises will block all access to
external social media, down from
approximately 50% in 2011.
Andrew Walls
Scottish implications
• Social players will continue to diversify and seek monetization opportunities
• Social is increasing in acceptance by the “suits” in corporate IT
• Social CRM is a very active technology area
19
Data Management
Through 2015, business analytics
needs will drive 70% of investments
in the expansion and modernization
of information infrastructure.
Ted Friedman
Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500
organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive
advantage.
Steve Prentice
Through 2015, more than 90% of
business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%
will quantify its economic value.
Doug Laney
By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will
triple the storage capacity that they
had in 2011.
Jie Zhang
Through 2015, business analytics
needs will drive 70% of investments
in the expansion and modernization
of information infrastructure.
Ted Friedman
Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500
organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive
advantage.
Steve Prentice
Through 2015, more than 90% of
business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%
will quantify its economic value.
Doug Laney
By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will
triple the storage capacity that they
had in 2011.
Jie Zhang
Data Management
Through 2016, spending on governing
information must increase to five
times the current level to be successful.
Ted Friedman
By 2016, 20% of CIOs in regulated industries will lose their jobs for failing to implement the
discipline of information governance successfully.
Debra Logan
By 2016, in-memory column-store
database management
systems will replace 25% of traditional data warehouses
and online transaction processing
applications.
Donald Feinberg et al
Through 2016, 75% of CISOs who
experience publicly disclosed security breaches and lack
documented, tested response plans will
be fired.
Rob McMillan
Through 2015, business analytics
needs will drive 70% of investments
in the expansion and modernization
of information infrastructure.
Ted Friedman
Through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500
organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive
advantage.
Steve Prentice
Through 2015, more than 90% of
business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10%
will quantify its economic value.
Doug Laney
By 2014, at least 50% of midsize businesses will
triple the storage capacity that they
had in 2011.
Jie Zhang
Data Management
Through 2016, spending on governing
information must increase to five
times the current level to be successful.
Ted Friedman
By 2016, 20% of CIOs in regulated industries will lose their jobs for failing to implement the
discipline of information governance successfully.
Debra Logan
By 2016, in-memory column-store
database management
systems will replace 25% of traditional data warehouses
and online transaction processing
applications.
Donald Feinberg et al
Through 2016, 75% of CISOs who
experience publicly disclosed security breaches and lack
documented, tested response plans will
be fired.
Rob McMillan
By 2015, 20% of the revenue in data management
technology markets will be captured via
nonperpetual licensing models, a more than fivefold
increase.
Ted Friedman
Scottish implications
• Increases in data volumes and the needs of analytics will drive infrastructure spend
• In-memory technology and data security technologies are worth watching
• Information management and governance spend will need to increase, otherwise CIO tenure….
• Revenue models for information management are changing
23
Sales and Marketing
By 2014, inside sales capacity in
technology providers will
increase 50% to drive speed and
responsiveness of sales.
David Mitchell
By 2015, 70% of branded
manufacturers will implement e-
commerce to sell direct to consumers, creating significant
channel conflict.
Chris Fletcher
By 2014, 60% of traditional IT
distributors will become cloud aggregation brokerages
servicing SMBs through VAR
partners.
Tiffani Bova
By 2015, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Baidu and Apple will collect
personally identifiable
transaction …on 10% of the
population in developed nations.
William Clark
Sales and Marketing
By 2014, inside sales capacity in
technology providers will
increase 50% to drive speed and
responsiveness of sales.
David Mitchell
By 2015, 70% of branded
manufacturers will implement e-
commerce to sell direct to consumers, creating significant
channel conflict.
Chris Fletcher
By 2014, 60% of traditional IT
distributors will become cloud aggregation brokerages
servicing SMBs through VAR
partners.
Tiffani Bova
By 2015, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Baidu and Apple will collect
personally identifiable
transaction …on 10% of the
population in developed nations.
William Clark
By 2015, 50% of the VAR channel
will disappear due to its slow response in satisfying major
technology provider needs.
Neil McMurchy
By 2015, IT marketers that
adopt best practices in real-time
marketing will outperform those
that adhere to traditional, slower
processes.
Richard Fouts
Scottish implications
• VAR will be become an increasingly difficult business model and will evolve, potential to cloud service brokers
• Speed and agility in sales and marketing will be rewarded
26
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Navigating a Stormy MarketScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner