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UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and

current statusParliament 27th October 2011

Dr Guy Midgley

Chief Director South African National Biodiversity Institute; IPCC co-

ordinating lead author

Most observed warming since the mid-20th century

is very likely the result(confidence >90%)

of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse

gas concentrations –

warming is unequivocal

IPCC (2007)

Climate challenge

4

History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol• Rio Earth Summit 1992 established a

framework Convention to address climate change

• Context: a new awareness of global sustainability and socio-economic shifts and links

• Convention => high level statement of principle and approach, entered into force 1995 = COP1

• Subsequent negotiated decisions (COPs and inter-sessionals) give substance to the Convention and bind countries to implement with Secretariat support

• Key principle “common but differentiated responsibilities”

• Art 2 i: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system

• Art 2 ii: Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

Article 2 of the Convention (Objective)

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History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol

• Kyoto Protocol adopted 1997 – legally binding instrument, sets net emissions targets for “Annex 1” countries and elaborates “modalities” (5.2% below 1990 levels by end of 1st commitment period)

• USA did not accede, (Australia followed) thus creating major imbalance in system, especially fairness and competitiveness issues in Annex 1.

• Delays in bringing Kyoto into effect, Russia’s signature in 2004 “activated” KP in 2004

• First MOP in Montreal in 2005 – 1st commitment period set for 2008-2012

• AWK-KP established to review Annex 1 targets

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History of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol

• COP13/MOP3 Bali• Bali Action Plan – focuses on 4 building

blocks – mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer

• Ad hoc Working Group on Long term Co-operative Action (AWG-LCA) established to give substance to the Bali Action Plan

• “Shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions”

• Two-year “Bali roadmap” setting up COP15 in Copenhagen for a major move forward

• Complex linkages between AWG-LCA and KP and delicate, complex “balance”

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BALI TO COPENHAGEN (2007,8,9)• 2009 – deadline re 2nd commitment period;

expectation to conclude negotiation on LCA• Technical negotiations stall on political issues• Japan, Russia, EU signal backtracking on Kyoto, some

lack of transparency • Proposals for new Convention architecture & new

protocol• Polarised politics, process stall progress on substance• Copenhagen Accord – political agreement recording

consensus of key groups apart from ALBA therefore only “noted” by COP

• Resolves key issue of “common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability” particularly around mitigation, review of global goal, deforestation

• Does not resolve global goal, level of ambition or Kyoto Protocol (implication for carbon “space”)

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• Sets up largest collective effort so far to reduce emissions, in a mutually accountable way, with national plans captured formally at international level under UNFCCC (Copenhagen Accord +)

• Comprehensive package framework to help developing nations deal on climate change: finance, technology, capacity-building support to meet urgent adaption needs, and to adopt sustainable paths to low emission economies resilient to adverse impacts of climate change (incl. Green Climate Fund)

• Schedule for nations to review the progress towards objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2°C

• Agreement to review whether the objective needs to be strengthened in future (1.5°C?), on the basis of the best scientific knowledge available

CANCUN outcomes (2010)

Current pledges projectedoutcome

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel EmissionsCO

2 em

issio

ns (P

g C

y-1) CO

2 emissions (Pg CO

2 y-1)

Growth rate1990-1999

1 % per year

Growth rate2000-2009

2.5 % per year

Time (y)

2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgCGrowth rate: -1.3%1990 level: +37%

2000-2008Growth rate: +3.2%

2010 (projected):Growth rate: >3%1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

The Berkeley Earth Project