Science, Technology & Public Policy
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Transcript of Science, Technology & Public Policy
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Science, Technology & Public Policy
The CTBT
RPDS
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Prologue
U
c00 + c11 + c22 + . . . . + cnn
Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926
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Science, Technology & National Security Policy
An Exploding Wire Studying the obscure;
Exploiting the power of knowledge
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Exploding Wires: Triggers of Power
Nagasaki, August 9, 1945Robert Oppenheimer Enrico Fermi
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Scientific Understanding: Knowledge and the Root of Power
Fission & Fusion
Lise Meitner Otto Hahn Leo Szilard Edward Teller Stan Ulam Andrei Sakharov
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Testing the Theory; Building the Arsenal
Science in pursuit of knowledgeand
influence upon policy
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Other Nations, Other Testing
Nation First Nuclear DetonationUSA 1945USSR 1949England 1952France 1959China 1964India 1974Pakistan 1998South Africa ?Israel -
Craig, Jungerman, Nuclear Arms Race, 1990.
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Fallout & Detection of Nuclear ExplosionsThe Collision of Politics and Technology
From 1945-1963, there are 650 test detonations of nuclear devices --most exploded in the atmosphere.
In 1963, international fear of radio-active fallout prompts the LTBT.
From 1963 to the present, a twilight struggle to ratify a CTBT ensues --and another 1100 nuclear detonations occur.
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The Motivations for Testing Nuclear Weapons
•Stockpile stewardship
•Innovation
•Sustaining technical expertise
•Modernizing nuclear explosion detection systems
•Weapons effects
•Political
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CTBTThe Science & Technology of Stockpile Stewardship
•The explosive core in the primary of a nuclear weapon is plutonium.
•Plutonium decays (half-life = 24,100 years)
239Pu 235U + 4He
•Alpha particles induce crystal modifications within the core that reduce its explosive yield and the reliability of the weapon.
Sidney Drell, et al, Science, 2/19/99.
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Nuclear Weapons Testing: New Realities
•High-speed computing and microscopic ignition of fusion
•Growing global supplies of fissile fuel
•Underemployed weapons scientists
•Escalating regional conflict
•Global commerce
•Ease of information flow
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The Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyCTBT
The purpose of CTBT is
to discontinue experiments like this one
C&E News, October 19, 1998
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The History of CTBT:The Collision of Political and Technological Thought
•1956 - 1958 --Failed American Soviet negotiations
•1958 - 1961 --Testing moratorium
•1963 --The LTBT
•1976 --The TTBT
•1996 --CTBT (Yet to be ratified)
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CTBTTechnology and Detection:The Hinge of the Dilemma
CTBT is a ninety-nine page document, largely concerned with establishing and operating the International Monitoring System (IMS)
IMS is a collection of 321 seismic, infrasound, hyroacoustic, and radio-nuclide sensors distributed among 89 nations and Antarctica
Each nation will establish National Data Centers (NDC) and links to an International Data Centre (IDC), for purposes of sharing data
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Big Government and Big Science The Science & Technology of CTBT
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CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions
http://www.ctbt.rnd.doe.gov/ctbt/introduction/infrasound_mon.html
50 Stations
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CTBTSeismology and Detection of Nuclear Explosions
Developing the algorithms and databases required for reliable detection at 167
stations
Los Alamos and Livermore National Labs
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CTBTSampling the Atmosphere for Radionuclides
The Automated RadioXenon
Sampler/Analyzer
80 Stations
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CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions Under Water
The work of LLNL , The Naval Research Labs, and Scripps School of Oceanography
11 Stations
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CTBTSatellites and Detecting Nuclear Explosions from Space
Fast
Forte´: Fast on-Orbit Recording of Transient Events
http://nis-www.lanl.gov/nis-projects/forte/
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CTBTAssembling the Data
International Monitoring System
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CTBTThe Challenges of Verification and Reliability
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CTBTThe Architecture of an Agreement
C&E News, 10/19/98
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CTBTListening for Explosions, Interpreting the Data
What Does it All Mean?
• 1949 -USAF aircraft capture radionuclides that announce the first Soviet A-bomb
• 1979 -Satellite optical sensors detect the signature of nuclear explosions
•1985 -Seismic measurements suggest illegal testing by the Soviets, disputed by independent seismologists
• 1998 -IMS monitoring of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests
C&E News, 10/19/98
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Epilog
A Tale of Parallel Universes
Los AlamosLivermore
Hanford
Nevada test siteOak Ridge
Aleutians
Sarov
SeverskZelenogorsk
Lesnoy
Ulam, Teller, Oppenheimer, Lawrence, Szilard, Pauling, . . .
Savannah River
Kurchatov, Sakharov, Smirnov, Khariton, Fuchs, . . .
And Global Anxiety
Snezhinsk