Science, Technology & Public Policy

The CTBT

RPDS

Prologue

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Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926

Science, Technology & National Security Policy

An Exploding Wire Studying the obscure;

Exploiting the power of knowledge

Exploding Wires: Triggers of Power

Nagasaki, August 9, 1945Robert Oppenheimer Enrico Fermi

Scientific Understanding: Knowledge and the Root of Power

Fission & Fusion

Lise Meitner Otto Hahn Leo Szilard Edward Teller Stan Ulam Andrei Sakharov

Testing the Theory; Building the Arsenal

Science in pursuit of knowledgeand

influence upon policy

Other Nations, Other Testing

Nation First Nuclear DetonationUSA 1945USSR 1949England 1952France 1959China 1964India 1974Pakistan 1998South Africa ?Israel -

Craig, Jungerman, Nuclear Arms Race, 1990.

Fallout & Detection of Nuclear ExplosionsThe Collision of Politics and Technology

From 1945-1963, there are 650 test detonations of nuclear devices --most exploded in the atmosphere.

In 1963, international fear of radio-active fallout prompts the LTBT.

From 1963 to the present, a twilight struggle to ratify a CTBT ensues --and another 1100 nuclear detonations occur.

The Motivations for Testing Nuclear Weapons

•Stockpile stewardship

•Innovation

•Sustaining technical expertise

•Modernizing nuclear explosion detection systems

•Weapons effects

•Political

CTBTThe Science & Technology of Stockpile Stewardship

•The explosive core in the primary of a nuclear weapon is plutonium.

•Plutonium decays (half-life = 24,100 years)

239Pu 235U + 4He

•Alpha particles induce crystal modifications within the core that reduce its explosive yield and the reliability of the weapon.

Sidney Drell, et al, Science, 2/19/99.

Nuclear Weapons Testing: New Realities

•High-speed computing and microscopic ignition of fusion

•Growing global supplies of fissile fuel

•Underemployed weapons scientists

•Escalating regional conflict

•Global commerce

•Ease of information flow

The Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyCTBT

The purpose of CTBT is

to discontinue experiments like this one

C&E News, October 19, 1998

The History of CTBT:The Collision of Political and Technological Thought

•1956 - 1958 --Failed American Soviet negotiations

•1958 - 1961 --Testing moratorium

•1963 --The LTBT

•1976 --The TTBT

•1996 --CTBT (Yet to be ratified)

CTBTTechnology and Detection:The Hinge of the Dilemma

CTBT is a ninety-nine page document, largely concerned with establishing and operating the International Monitoring System (IMS)

IMS is a collection of 321 seismic, infrasound, hyroacoustic, and radio-nuclide sensors distributed among 89 nations and Antarctica

Each nation will establish National Data Centers (NDC) and links to an International Data Centre (IDC), for purposes of sharing data

Big Government and Big Science The Science & Technology of CTBT

CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions

http://www.ctbt.rnd.doe.gov/ctbt/introduction/infrasound_mon.html

50 Stations

CTBTSeismology and Detection of Nuclear Explosions

Developing the algorithms and databases required for reliable detection at 167

stations

Los Alamos and Livermore National Labs

CTBTSampling the Atmosphere for Radionuclides

The Automated RadioXenon

Sampler/Analyzer

80 Stations

CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions Under Water

The work of LLNL , The Naval Research Labs, and Scripps School of Oceanography

11 Stations

CTBTSatellites and Detecting Nuclear Explosions from Space

Fast

Forte´: Fast on-Orbit Recording of Transient Events

http://nis-www.lanl.gov/nis-projects/forte/

CTBTAssembling the Data

International Monitoring System

CTBTThe Challenges of Verification and Reliability

CTBTThe Architecture of an Agreement

C&E News, 10/19/98

CTBTListening for Explosions, Interpreting the Data

What Does it All Mean?

• 1949 -USAF aircraft capture radionuclides that announce the first Soviet A-bomb

• 1979 -Satellite optical sensors detect the signature of nuclear explosions

•1985 -Seismic measurements suggest illegal testing by the Soviets, disputed by independent seismologists

• 1998 -IMS monitoring of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests

C&E News, 10/19/98

Epilog

A Tale of Parallel Universes

Los AlamosLivermore

Hanford

Nevada test siteOak Ridge

Aleutians

Sarov

SeverskZelenogorsk

Lesnoy

Ulam, Teller, Oppenheimer, Lawrence, Szilard, Pauling, . . .

Savannah River

Kurchatov, Sakharov, Smirnov, Khariton, Fuchs, . . .

And Global Anxiety

Snezhinsk