Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information
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Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information Mike Harrison Climate-Insight Senior Research Associate, OUCE, Oxford University
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Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information. Mike Harrison Climate-Insight Senior Research Associate, OUCE, Oxford University. The Objective. To deliver the best attainable climate information - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Science Processes and Non-Science Processes in Creating Climate Information
Science Processes and Non-Science
Processes in Creating Climate
InformationMike Harrison
Climate-InsightSenior Research Associate, OUCE, Oxford
University
The Objective To deliver the best attainable
climate information To deliver information complete with
the best attainable potential error information
To deliver information in the form most suitable for users to blend into their decision making processes
The Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)Process
Information Sources
Information Creation
Stage
Information collation and interpretation
Information
Assessment Stage
Information
distribution
Information Delivery
Stage
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Process
Information Sources
Information Creation
Stage
Information collation and interpretation
Information
Assessment Stage
Information
distribution
Information Delivery
Stage
The Science Issues of Uncertainty
Information Sources
1. Model Issues2. Creation of
Ensembles3. Build of pdf
4. Assessment of quality
5. Stability of outputs
Information collation and interpretation
1. Combination of diverse information2. Treatment of non-
conforming information
Information
distribution
1. Provision of sufficient
information2. Provision of
customised information
The Non-Science or Cognitive Issues of
UncertaintyInformation
Sources
1. Bias2. Overconfidence
Information collation and interpretation
1. Overconfidence2. Availability
3. Belief Persistence4. Group Conformity5. Treatment of Non-
Conforming Information
Information
distribution
1. Overconfidence2. Framing
3. Anchoring4. User demand and
bias
The National Communication/NAPA Process – and other
reportsInformation
Sources
Information Creation
Stage
Information collation and interpretation
Information
Assessment Stage
Information
distribution
Information Delivery
Stage
Recent seasonal forecast for Africa from the IRI
Quantitatively calibrated levels of confidence according to the
IPCCTerminology Degree of confidence
in being correctVery high confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance
of being correctHigh confidence About 8 out of 10 chance
Medium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance
Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance
Very low confidence About 1 out of 10 chance
Statements from the SPM of the IPCC AR4
SYRThere is medium confidence that other effects of regional climate change on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction.
Example from a European organisation’s report for a
developing countryThe findings, … , illustrate the dramatic effects of climate change in …. However, they also show that the impacts for the different regions vary widely:␣ Increase in annual average temperature by 1.1°C by 2030. The south of the country will be affected to a far greater extent than the north (1.6°C and 0.9°C respectively)␣ The number and intensity of droughts will increase␣ A 28% decline in …’s water resources by 2030. The loss of groundwater reserves in particular will become a problem␣ 20% loss in arable cropland by 2030␣ 50% loss of non-irrigated forested areas in southern …␣ Drastically increased risk of forest fires␣ Substantial increase in the vulnerability of ecosystems
From a NAPA␣ Increased water scarcity and reduced water quality – leading to increased hardship on rural livelihoods;␣ Increased drought frequency, increased temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns – leading to degradation of agricultural lands, soils and terraces;␣ Deterioration of habitats and biodiversity – leading to expansion of desertification;␣ Reduced agricultural productivity – leading to increased food insecurity and reduced income generating activities;␣ Increased sea levels – leading to deterioration of wetlands, coastal mangrove migration, erosion, infrastructure damage, and seawater groundwater intrusion;␣ Increased climatic variability – leading to the possibility of spread and growth of vector borne and water borne diseases; and␣ Impacts on coastal zones – leading to a loss of tourism to the activity due to sea level rise including loss of beaches
A Key Humanitarian Challenge for
Climate Scientists
Be honest and fully open in delivering information
