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Science Consultants Report. Ryan Boodee Nguyen Le Ying Zhang Jack Dai Andy Liu.
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Transcript of Science Consultants Report. Ryan Boodee Nguyen Le Ying Zhang Jack Dai Andy Liu.
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2009 GLOBAL SUMMITScience Consultants Report
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Ryan BoodeeNguyen LeYing Zhang
Jack DaiAndy Liu
MODELING/ITGENERAL INFORMATION
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WHAT WE DO
Provide a critical piece of information for your decision-making process by running your proposed wedges through our carbon cycle model to provide you with information on how your policy changes the expected amount of carbon in the atmosphere.
Address all other modeling-related concerns.
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THE MODEL
To view model files, you must have STELLA on your computer. You can find STELLA on Moodle on the software page.
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HOW DOES IT WORK?
There are three sectors for carbon emissions. Commercial(-c-) Residential(-r-) Transportation(-t-)
Each Sector is divided into: Fraction of power supplied by coal/oil/hydro/etc.
(Fcc)- Fraction of commercial power supplied by coal Efficiency of power generation with coal/oil/etc.
(Efro)- Efficiency of residential power generation with oil
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WHAT WE NEED FROM YOU!
What we want in a request: Your proposed wedges expressed as numerically as
possible. i.e. 30% increase use of oil, 20% decrease use of
nuclear
What we don’t want in a request: Your wedges, the Sparknotes version i.e. Increase use of nuclear power.
We absolutely need to know how much in order to complete your model request.
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MODELING DISCLAIMER The model is not sophisticated enough to take into account every nation. The simulation of proposed wedges is run on a model-defined default nation, and all
results are based on changes to the default nation.
In layman’s terms, the simulation is not run on your country. It is run on an imaginary country defined by the model itself.
If you are not satisfied with running your simulation on the imaginary country, please provide all the parameters required by the model for your country. Our personnel will be more than happy to discuss this process with you in greater detail on a case-by-case basis.
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REQUESTING A MODEL Please request your models in the Discussion of the
Modeling and IT section of the Wikispaces page.
Each model request should have its own thread. Do NOT request a model in someone else’s thread.
We look forward to working with you.
Kkthxbai
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HOW TO USE THE ENERGY WEDGE GUIDANCE TOOLS
GUIDE TO ENERGY WEDGES
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ENERGY WEDGES
Broken down into four general groups: Efficiency
Buildings, vehicles, etc. De-carbonization of Power
Baseload Carbon Capture Wind Power
De-carbonization of Fuel Wind H2 in Fuel Cell Cars Biomass Fuel
Forests and Agricultural soils Reforestation, reduce deforestation
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HOW DO WE GET THERE?
Demo Step by Step: http://2009summit.wikispaces.com/
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SO MANY TO PICK FROM! Each section is divided up into general regions, so
just pick your region, narrow it down to your country, and apply the wedge
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BLACK CARBON – THE 16TH WEDGE
•black carbon has emerged as an important No. 2 pollutant responsible for warming •Responsible for 18 percent of the planet’s warming, compared with 40 percent for carbon dioxide.
•Decreasing black carbon emissions would be a relatively cheap way to significantly rein in global warming — especially in the short term
•Replacing primitive cooking stoves with modern versions that emit far less soot could provide a much-needed stopgap
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CONSIDER THE FUTURE WHEN NEGOTIATING WEDGE AGREEMENTS
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS
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Phenomena Likelihood of trend
• Contraction of snow cover areas• Increased thaw in permafrost regions• Decrease in sea ice extent
Virtually certain
• Increased frequency of hot extremes• heat waves and heavy precipitation
Very likely to occur
Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur
Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur
Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions Very likely to occur
Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin
High confidence
Global Climate Change: General Future Trends
Definitions of likelihood ranges used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%, very likely >90%, likely >66%.
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KEY CHALLENGES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
Environmental Health
Extreme weather and Sea level rise – salinization
of coastal water systems, flooding
Environmental degradation – land, coastal ecosystems, extinctions, fisheries collapse and loss of productivity
Human Health
Forced population displacements - due to weather, flooding, water supply and coastal changes
Thermal stress – cyclones, bush fires and effects of food supplies
Disease -Microbial Proliferation and
Changes in host-vector relationships and in infectious disease ranges
Impaired food production
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SHARING THE BURDEN AND THE REWARDS
PARTNERSHIPS & CDMS
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Under Kyoto Protocol Complete a Project Cycle to be certified
as a CDM Link between developed and
developing countries: Pollution Outsourcing Helps developing countries get on the right
track, allows developed countries to meet emission requirements without compromising industry
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EXAMPLES
Africa Coal power versus carbon capture, reforestation,
photovoltaic cells Several European countries investing in developing
countries United Kingdom 42 biomass projects in Malaysia, China, India, Thailand,
and Brazil In addition, 59 wind power, 39 gas and heat North America Pollution mitigation, energy industries Nuclear power, eliminate deforestation, research
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Low-tech versus high-tech Planting trees (currently excluded from
Kyoto) Composting
Ventilation Air Methane Combustion System
Hydropower Projects
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CDM PROJECTIONS
http://www.ren21.net/pdf/virtual_lib_local/CDM-EE-Netz.pdf