Science basis of climate change
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Transcript of Science basis of climate change
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IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Thomas StockerCo-Chair Working Group I
University of Bern, Switzerland
Gian-Kasper PlattnerDeputy Head, Director of Science
TSU WGI, University of Bern
The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
Warming in the climate system is unequivocal...
(IPCC, 2007, Fig. SPM-3)
IPCC (2007):
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(IPC
C, 2
007,
Fig
. WG
I-SPM
-4)
Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.
IPCC (2007):
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(IPC
C, 2
007,
Fig
. WG
I-SPM
-6)
2020-2029 2090-2099
Change in Temperature (°C), Scenario A2
Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...
IPCC (2007):
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
Some policy-relevant findings to be assessed in AR5:
Observations (3 examples)
Projections (3 examples)
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
2009: 387 ppm
(Siegenthaler et al., 2005; Lüthi et al., 2008, NOAA)
1. CO2 : Higher levels and more rapid increase
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(Prit
char
d et
al.
2009
)
2. Extensive thinning on the margins of Greenland and Antarctica
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(Merrifield et al., 2009, in BAMS)
3. Persistent sea-level rise consistent with earlier estimates
IPCC 2007:
Merrifield et al., 2009:
[1993–2003] (3.1 ± 0.7) mm/yr
[1993–2008] (3.5 ± 0.4) mm/yr
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
4. Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice
(Wan
g an
d O
verla
nd, 2
009)
ice-free
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(IPCC, 2007, Chapter 10, simplified, Plattner et al. 2008)
5. Long-term commitment and irreversibility of CO2 perturbation
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
(Rob
ock
et a
l., 2
008)
Year
ONOFF
10 Mio t Sulphur / Year
Termination Problem
6. Abrupt climate changes caused by geoengineering
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Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5
Conclusions:
IPCC WGI firmly stands behind the conclusions of AR4, the community of researchers and its individuals providing the scientific basis, and the procedures of IPCC Assessments;
The combination of observations and paleoclimate information shows unprecedented changes in the climate system, both in amplitude and rate for 100‘s to many 1000‘s of years;
Wide-spread melting of ice margins is observed in Greenland and Antarctica with implications for sea level rise;
Emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 1000‘s of years causing irreversible changes in the climate and in ocean chemistry;
Geoengineering methods have an inherent termination problemand do not mitigate the direct effects of CO2 increase.