Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

Science-based Targetsfor agriculture and forestry commodities

September 25, 2015

Giel Linthorst (Ecofys)

Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen)

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Agenda for stakeholder workshop

PART 1

1. Welcome & introduction

2. Background of this project

3. Climate science and agriculture emissions

4. Science-based target setting

5. Methodology developments for agriculture and forestry commodities

6. Project planning

7. Collaboration with stakeholders

8. Q&A

PART 2

1. Interactive discussion based on specific methodological issues

2. Polling

CLOSURE AND NEXT STEPS

25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

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PART 1. Background of this project

> Agricultural and forestry commodities (ranging from meat, diary to rice, wheat

and to wood) have a large impact on the environment and on the other hand

suffer from climate change in many regions

> Growth of global population and welfare will lead to almost doubling of demand

for agriculture and forestry commodities in 2050

> Increase of productivity combined with mitigating of GHG emissions are

required to meet global development and climate goals

> Companies play important role in increasing productivity while mitigating GHG

emissions

> However, there is no transparent methodology that guides companies to

improve efficiency and to reduce GHG per unit of agricultural and forestry

commodity

t GHG/unit food productt GHG/ha/yr

e.g. Smith et al. (2008); IPCC

e.g. Macdiarmid et al.(2013)

t GHG/t commodity


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Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might

increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century

Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII Mitigation of Climate Change, 2014

• To prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, parties to the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2010 to

commit to a maximum temperature rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.


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Mitigation in agriculture and forestry is crucial to keep global

warming below 2 °C

Source: RCP2.6, Detlef P. van Vuuren et al (2011)


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Science-based Targets setting for companies

Inspire and enable companies to set GHG emission reduction

targets in line with the level of decarbonization required to

keep global warming 2°C

a) By the end of 2015 over 100 leading multinational

companies will have commited to adopt science-based

emission reduction targets

b) By 2020 this will be more than 250 companies

c) This initiative will also demonstrate to policy-makers the

scale of ambition among leading companies to reduce their

emissions and act as a positive influence on international

climate negotiations

Goal

Expected outcomes

Science-based Targets25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

Science Based Targets initiative

Launched by CDP, UN Global Compact, WRI and WWF

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51 companies already committed to set Science-based Targets

Full list: https://www.cdp.net/en-US/pages/rtp/adopt-science-based-targets.aspx


> ”If your argument is tied to climate science, it becomes very hard

for people to say: well, that’s the wrong target.’

Kevin Rabinovitch, global sustainability director

> “Investing in sustainability is an investment in the company’s future

as well as in the communities where the company operates.”

Karl-Johan Persson, CEO

https://www.cdp.net/en-US/pages/rtp/adopt-science-based-targets.aspx

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New methodology was developed to set Science-based

Targets


• For the Science Based Targets initiative, Ecofys

developed with CDP, WRI and WWF a new

methodology, called the Sectoral Decarbonization

Approach (SDA)

• The SDA methodology is based on the least-cost

modelled 2oC scenario (2DS) developed by the

International Energy Agency (IEA) as part of

its publication, Energy Technology Perspectives

2014

• Development of the SDA methodology involved

intensive stakeholder consultation

• The SDA methodology is freely available

• Scientific backing published in Nature Climate

Change

http://sciencebasedtargets.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Sectoral-Decarbonization-Approach-Report.pdf

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2770.html

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Current sectoral coverage of the SDA methodology


Currently, over 60% of the global GHG emissions

are covered by the methodology.

However, not covered are:

• Other Energy, e.g. fossil fuel extraction and

production

• Agriculture, forestry and Land Use

(AFOLU)

Note that some sectors are intertwined.

• Fertilizer is produced in industry, but used in

AFOLU

• Biofuels reduce emissions in Transport, but

generate emissions in AFOLU

AFOLU

Industry

Other energy

Electricity

and heat

Transport

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SDA methodology – From sectors to companies:

convergence of carbon intensity towards 2050


Implication: companies with growing market share should do more

Sector average

Company with higher carbon intensity

… and growing market share

… or decreasing market share

Company with lower carbon intensity

Carb

on

in

ten

sit

y (

t C

O2eq

/ t

of

pro

du

ct)

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A similar methodology will be developed for 10 major

agriculture and forestry commodities


Step 1. Breakdown AFOLU emissions and selection of commodities

Step 2. Assess growth of production volumes and different production methods

Step 3. Create MACCs of measures and model scenarios

Step 4. Develop decarbonization pathway 2010-2050

Sta

keh

old

er a

nd

exp

ert

inte

ractio

n a

nd

revie

w

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Step 1. Breakdown AFOLU emissions and selection of

commodities


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

AFOLU GHG emissions (GtCO2eq)

Agriculture FOLU (LULUCF)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Direct agriculture GHG emissions

Rest

Palm oil

Soy

Chicken

Maize

Wheat

Pigs

Dairy

Rice

Beef

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

FOLU (LULUCF) GHG emissions

(GtCO2eq)

Rest

Palm oil

Beef

Soy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total GHG emissions (GtCO2eq)

Electricity and Heat Other Energy

Industry Transport

Buildings AFOLU

24%

6%

14%

21%

10%

25%

51%

49%

59%

41%

24%

76%

Sources: IPCC, 2014 & CEA, 2014

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Step 1. Selection of agriculture and forestry commodities


The following commodities are selected:

1. Meat – Beef

2. Dairy

3. Poultry (Chicken)

4. Meat – Pig

5. Rice

6. Maize

7. Wheat

8. Palm Oil

9. Soybeans

10.Round wood

The choice for these commodities was based on:

> Their large role in AFOLU emissions

> Their large volumes traded

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Step 2. Assess growth of production volumes and different

production methods


million m3/year

(roundwood only)

million t DM/year

(all agro commodities)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Growth of production volumes

Beef million t DM/yr Diary million t DM/yr Poultry million t DM/yr Pigs million t DM/yr

Rice million t DM/yr Maize million t DM/yr Wheat million t DM/yr Palm oil million t DM/yr

Soy million t DM/yr Round wood million m3/yr

© ECOFYS | | 25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

Step 3. Assessing potential and costs of mitigation measures

Commodities Mitigation measures CostUpland crops (Maize, Wheat, Soybean, Palm oil, Upland rice)

Reduced fertilization Reduced cost

Increased fertilization Increased cost

100% residue incorporation No cost

Nitrification inhibitors Increased cost

Split N fertilization Increased labour cost

No-till adoption No cost

Wetland rice

Mid-season drainage Increased cost

Alternate wetting and drying Increased cost

Dry seeding −

Upland rice −

Residue incorporation-50% No cost

Residue incorporation-100% No cost

No-till No cost

Ammonium sulphate Increased cost

Nitrification inhibitors Increased cost

Slow release Urea Increased cost

Reduced fertilization Reduced cost

Livestock (Meat-beef, Dairy, Poultry-chicken)

Improved feed Increased cost

Antibiotics Increased cost

Bovine Somatrotropin (bST Increased cost

Propionate Precursors Increased cost

Antimethanogen Increased cost

Intensive Grazing Increased cost

Manure management (Anaerobic digesters) Increased cost

SOURCE: USEPA 2013

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Step 3. Create MACCs of measures and model scenarios


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Step 4. Develop decarbonization pathway towards 2050


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ind

ex v

alu

e

Year

Wheat

Emission intensity index Emissions Index

Production activity index

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

ton

ne

CO

2eq

/to

nn

e w

he

at

Year

Wheat emission intensity (CO2 eq) (present-2050)

CO2 CH4 (CO2 eq) N2O (CO2 eq)

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Key characteristics of new methodology for agriculture and

forestry commodities


1. The methodology will be based on a new least-cost modelled 2oC scenario

taking into account latest insights in mitigation potential and costs of

climate-smart solutions.

2. The methodology is based on intensity pathways per commodity, using

physical indicators (tonne of product) for the 10 major agriculture and

forestry commodities

3. Both carbon intensity and absolute targets can be set by the methodology

4. The methodology can be applied by farmers up to retailers to reduce GHG

emissions during production and to green the supply chain

5. The methodology is flexible to set targets for each year until 2050

6. The methodology will be improved continuously based on new insights

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Planning of methodology development


Task M J J A S O N D J F M A M

1. Current emissions breakdown and selection of commodities

2. Assess production volume and different production methods

3. Create MACCs of measures and model least-cost 2 oCscenarios

4. Develop decarbonizationpathway 2010- 2050

Stakeholder and expert interaction and review- Stakeholder workshops- Technical Advisory Group

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Four potential opportunities for collaboration


1. Join stakeholder group and

participate in online workshops

2. Be member of Technical Advisory

Group (TAG)

3. Pilot test draft methodology

4. Assess positive impact of your

solutions

Opportunities

• Stay up-to-date on project and developed methodology

• Provide input to methodology development • Discuss issues with other stakeholders

• Get in-depth insights in methodology development

• Provide pro-active input and feedback on methodology

• Get visibility as TAG-member on stakeholder workshops

• Be one of the first companies that applies the development methodology to its commodities

• Get valuable insights in current performance and targets

• Get valuable insights in potential and cost to mitigate emissions

• Get overview of positive impact of your solutions on global scale and in 2oC scenario

Benefits for you

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Questions on Part 1


Please feel free to ask your questions:

- by raising your hand in the WebEx or

- by typing your question in the Chat box

After raising your hand, we will unmute you to hear your questions and we will

monitor the Chat box to answer the main questions.

After this short Q&A we will

address more specific points for

debate in part 2 of this workshop

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PART 2. Topics for discussion


1. Selection of commodities and differentiation between production methods, e.g.:a. Differentiation between wet and dry riceb. Differentiation between intensities of production methodsc. Differentiation between production systems

2. Corporate practices of measuring GHG emissions on farm level linked to physical indicators used in the methodology

3. Measures per commodity, e.g.:a. To increase yieldb. To mitigate emissionsc. To increase resilience

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CLOSURE AND NEXT STEPS


Please contact Giel Linthorst of Ecofys if

• You have valuable input or feedback for our project

• You want to be invited for the next stakeholder workshop in March 2016

• You want to be part of the Technical Advisory Group

© ECOFYS | |

Thank you

Giel Linthorst

Programme leader Science-based Targets

T: +31 (0)30 662 3322

M: +31 (0)6 11 366 935

E: [email protected]


http://www.ecofys.com/en/experts/linthorst/

mailto:[email protected]

Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities

Technology

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