Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforHydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforHydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services

Richard Fulton Richard Fulton

NWS Science & Technology CommitteeNWS Science & Technology CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition

• Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

• Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps

• Key SolutionsKey Solutions

• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs

• SummarySummary

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesTeam CompositionTeam Composition

• NWSNWS

– Richard Fulton (OHD / HL)Richard Fulton (OHD / HL)

– David Reynolds (WFO David Reynolds (WFO Monterey, CA)Monterey, CA)

– Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL)Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL)

– John Schaake (OHD / HL)John Schaake (OHD / HL)

– Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC)Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC)

– Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / HSD)HSD)

• OAROAR

– Kevin Kelleher (NSSL)Kevin Kelleher (NSSL)

– Marty Ralph (ETL)Marty Ralph (ETL)

– Brooks Martner (ETL)Brooks Martner (ETL)

• NESDISNESDIS

– Roderick Scofield (ORA)Roderick Scofield (ORA)

– Robert Kuligowski (ORA)Robert Kuligowski (ORA)

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesVision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

Vision

Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months

Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess

and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations

Vision

Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months

Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess

and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations

• $240M/yr in Flood Loss Savings and $520M/yr in Economic Benefits to Water Resource Managers (2002 NHWC Report)

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure(S) Performance Measure

Current Current SkillSkill

FY07 FY07 Goal TargetGoal Target

FY12 FY12 Target Target

Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning (Lead Time) (G)(Lead Time) (G) 47 Min.47 Min. 48 Min.48 Min. 55 Min.55 Min. 60 Min.60 Min.

Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning (POD) (G)(POD) (G) 86%86% 89%89% 92%92% 93%93%

Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning (FAR) (S)(FAR) (S) 37%37% 35%35% 32%32% 30%30%

Precip. ForecastPrecip. Forecast (1-in Day 1 ThrScr) (G) (1-in Day 1 ThrScr) (G) 23%23% 24%24% 26%26% 26%26%

Proposed Performance MeasureProposed Performance Measure Current Current SkillSkill

FY07 FY07 TargetTarget

FY12 FY12 TargetTarget

River Flood Warning River Flood Warning (Lead Time)(Lead Time) N/AN/A 7 Hrs.7 Hrs. 8 Hrs.8 Hrs.

River Flood Warning River Flood Warning (POD)(POD) N/AN/A 80%80% 85%85%

River Flood Warning River Flood Warning (FAR) (FAR) N/AN/A 26%26% 20%20%

On Track Low Risk High Risk

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesKey Information GapsKey Information Gaps

• Quantitative Precipitation Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF)Information (QPE & QPF)

Unbiased Precipitation Estimates Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Informationwith Reliability Information

Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. NowcastsReliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts

Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFsLonger-term, Unbiased Model QPFs

• Hydrologic ForecastingHydrologic Forecasting

High-resolution Flash Flood High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & WarningsForecasts & Warnings

Probabilistic River Forecasts Using Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0-3 day QPF and Seasonal 0-3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation ForecastsPrecipitation Forecasts

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpact

Unbiased Precipitation Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Estimates with Reliability InformationInformation

High-resolution Short- and High-resolution Short- and Long-term Precipitation Long-term Precipitation ForecastsForecasts

High-resolution Short- and High-resolution Short- and Long-term Hydrologic Long-term Hydrologic ForecastsForecasts

• Probabilistic & Dual-Probabilistic & Dual-Polarized Radar QPE Polarized Radar QPE AlgorithmsAlgorithms

• Radar, Satellite, & Radar, Satellite, & Raingauge QPE Analysis Raingauge QPE Analysis TechniqueTechnique

• Regional Ensemble WRF Regional Ensemble WRF with DAwith DA

• Improved RUCImproved RUC• NOAH, N-LDASNOAH, N-LDAS• ADSTAT, MPN, AN ADSTAT, MPN, AN

Nowcast AlgorithmsNowcast Algorithms

• Distributed Hydro. ModelDistributed Hydro. Model• Ensemble Streamflow Ensemble Streamflow

Prediction modelPrediction model• FFMP/SCANFFMP/SCAN

• Improved Forcing for Improved Forcing for Hydrologic ModelsHydrologic Models

• Improved Water Improved Water Management & Decision Management & Decision MakingMaking

• High-resolution Forecasts High-resolution Forecasts & Warnings& Warnings

• Improved Forcing for Improved Forcing for Hydro. Forecast ModelsHydro. Forecast Models

• Improved Flash Flood Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and WarningMonitoring and Warning

• Water Excess-Deficit Water Excess-Deficit Decision MakingDecision Making

Hydrologic Services Hydrologic Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

Polariz. QPE Polariz. QPEProb. QPEProb. QPE

8km WRF8km WRF

FFMPFFMP

Deployment

OTE

DTE

R&D

ObservationsObservations

DA/ModelsDA/Models

ForecastTechniquesForecastTechniques

TrainingTraining PDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. modelsPDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. models

Multisensor QPEMultisensor QPE

Fld Fcst MapsFld Fcst Maps

GPMGPM

Distr. model Distr. modelESPESP

JCSDAJCSDA

Phased Array Radar

Phased Array Radar

QP+Hydro NowcastsQP+Hydro Nowcasts

DisseminationDissemination

Wireless, PDAWireless, PDAEnabling Techn.Enabling Techn. GISGIS

HyperspectralHyperspectral

Orographic model Orographic model

Hydro DAHydro DA

Graphical productsGraphical productsProb. QPF productsProb. QPF products

Region Ens+DA Region Ens+DA

Internet-Next Internet-Next

GOES+POESGOES+POES

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge DataRadar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data

• Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP ForecastsTechniques Blended with NWP Forecasts

• Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged LocationsExcess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations

• Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability InformationAssociated Reliability Information

• Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational DatasetsExisting Observational Datasets

• Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & ModelsModels

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services SummarySummary

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models Models

• Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Improved Physics and Data Assimilation Assimilation

• Hydrometeorological TestbedsHydrometeorological Testbeds

• Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models

• Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools

• Location-specific Warnings

• Graphical, Probabilistic Products

• Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades

Vision

Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water

Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations

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On-going Training

20072007

20122012

2020202020022002

Back-up InformationBack-up Information

• CitizensCitizens

• Emergency Managers, FEMAEmergency Managers, FEMA

• Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators)Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators)

• Water Transportation and NavigationWater Transportation and Navigation

• AgricultureAgriculture

• Construction IndustryConstruction Industry

• Transportation and Commerce Transportation and Commerce

• Municipal Public Works DepartmentsMunicipal Public Works Departments

• Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA)Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA)

• Recreational UsersRecreational Users

Primary Customers & PartnersPrimary Customers & Partners

Key Products & ServicesKey Products & Services

• Public river stage and flow Public river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & forecasts of water excess & deficitdeficit

• River and flash flood watches River and flash flood watches and warningsand warnings

• Forecast discussion productsForecast discussion products

• Radar and satellite Radar and satellite precipitation estimatesprecipitation estimates

• Rain gauge data productsRain gauge data products

• Flash Flood Guidance Flash Flood Guidance productsproducts

• Radar-based very short range (0-3 hrs) QPF

• NWP-based QPF for short and medium ranges

• HPC/RFC forecaster value-HPC/RFC forecaster value-added QPF products for added QPF products for days 1-5days 1-5

• MOS value-added QPFMOS value-added QPF

• Potential evaporation Potential evaporation forecastsforecasts

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesS & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesFlash Flood Warning Skill Performance MeasuresFlash Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesQuantitative Precipitation Forecast SkillQuantitative Precipitation Forecast Skill

Performance MeasurePerformance Measure

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic ServicesRiver Flood Warning Skill Performance MeasuresRiver Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures