Science and Pseudoscience

Sorting Fact from Fiction

J. David O’Dell, Ph.D.Associate Professor of Chemistry

Glenville State College

What is Science?

• From Latin scientia, meaning knowledge• Often regarded as a knowledge base• More specifically, scientific knowledge is– Achieved by a systematic process• Planned, ordered, methodical

– Involves observation and experimentation– Is testable– If a statement is incorrect, it must be able to be

proved incorrect

What is Science?

“Science is built up with facts, as a house is with stones. But a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house.”

Henri Poincaré (1854-1912)French Mathematician, Theoretical Physicist, and

Philosopher of Science

What Isn’t Science?

• Topics that are outside the realm of science– Matters of opinion– Matters of faith– Ethics/Morals– Newly evolving theoretical fields• Often outside scientific realm until technology develops

for testing

• Pseudosciences– Presented as being scientific but are not

Scientific Method

• Observations• Question• Hypothesis• Prediction• Experiment• Analysis• Peer Review

Peer Review Process

• Science is self correcting– Many studies with flawed methodologies and

invalid conclusions are never published– Some are published, then retracted when new

information becomes available– In order for results to gain credibility, the results

must be repeated in subsequent experiments

Skepticism

• Skeptic– One who only accepts information that is well

supported by evidence• Denialist– One who rejects information that is well

supported by evidence• Evidence– Assessed by accuracy of predictions– Not eyewitness evidence, as in court

Terminology

• Law– A descriptive statement (very often mathematical)

that applies to a very broad range of conditions– Does not offer explanation

• Theory– A highly accepted explanation of a phenomenon– Repeatedly confirmed through experimentation– Not in any way, shape, or form a guess or hunch

Facts, Theories, and Laws

• Fact– An object, when dropped, will fall toward the center

of the Earth• Law– The force acting on the objects is directly

proportional to the product of the objects’ masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between their centers of mass.

• Theory– Spacetime is curved by the mass of the Earth

Unscientific (Popular) Method

• Observation Conclusion• Post hoc, ergo propter hoc– After this, therefore because of this– Leads to erroneous conclusions• Cold weather causes colds• Good luck charm causes success

– Makes sense• Joe got sick after eating that plant, so I’m not going to

eat that plant.

What’s Wrong with That?

• Lack of control group– No way to know if the effect was the result of the

observed event or some other factor• Lack of statistical analysis– No way to know if observed differences are the

result of the treatment or just due to chance

ScienceSelf Correcting, but Sometimes Slowly

• Antivax movement– Andrew Wakefield study (1998) linking autism to MMR

vaccine– Small sample size– Published in The Lancet– Later retracted by the journal’s editorial staff (2010)– Initially thought to be bad science, later discovered to be

fraud• Perfect (albeit bad) example of post hoc reasoning

– Autistic children often begin to show symptoms around the age of vaccination

Public Attitudes Toward Vaccines

• Persistence of misconceptions– 2008 Survey• 19% agree that vaccines linked to autism• 43% not sure

– 2009 Survey• 25% of parents believe vaccines cause autism• 12% refused at least one vaccine

• Occurrence of childhood diseases now rising

Persistence of Misconceptions

• Antivax campaigns by celebrities– Jenny McCarthy, Oprah Winfrey

• Comments by politicians– “I will tell you that I had a mother last night come up to me here

in Tampa, Fla., after the debate. She told me that her little daughter took that vaccine, that injection, and she suffered from mental retardation thereafter.”• Michelle Bachmann (R, Minnesota) 2012

– “It’s indisputable that (autism) is on the rise amongst children, the question is what’s causing it. And we go back and forth and there’s strong evidence that indicates that it’s got to do with a preservative in vaccines.”• John McCain (R, Arizona) 2008

Congressional Hearingon Vaccines and Autism

• “I’m convinced that the mercury in vaccinations is a contributing factor to neurological diseases such as autism.”

• "It wasn’t so bad when a child gets one or two or three vaccines… Mercury accumulates in the brain until it has to be chelated.”– Congressman Dan Burton (R, Indiana) 2012

Science Understanding AmongAmerican Adults

• Science and Engineering Indicators 2012– Knowledge of Scientific Facts– Understanding of Scientific Process– Belief in Pseudosciences

Scientific Facts• The center of the Earth is very hot. (True)• All radioactivity is man-made. (False)• It is the father’s gene that decides whether the baby is a boy or girl.

(True)• Lasers work by focusing sound waves. (False)• Electrons are smaller than atoms. (False)• Antibiotics kill viruses as well as bacteria. (False)• The continents on which we live have been moving their locations for

millions of years and will continue to move in the future. (True)• Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the

Earth? (Earth around Sun) • How long does it take for the Earth to go around the Sun? (1 year)

– Asked only if previous question answered correctly

Science Facts

1992 1995 1997 1999 2001 2006 2008 20100.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Year

Corr

ect R

espo

nses

Science Reasoning

• Two scientists want to know if a certain drug is effective against high blood pressure.

• The first scientist wants to give the drug to 1,000 people with high blood pressure and see how many of them experience lower blood pressure levels.

• The second scientist wants to give the drug to 500 people with high blood pressure and not give the drug to another 500 people with high blood pressure, and see how many in both groups experience lower blood pressure levels.

• Which is the better way to test this drug?

Which One?

• First experiment has no control group– Any observed change could not be legitimately

attributed to the treatment• Second experiment has a control group– Patients in the experimental group can be

compared to patients in the control group• Second experiment is better than first• Second experiment could be better

Science Reasoning

1995 1997 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 20100

102030405060708090

100

Year

Perc

ent A

nsw

ered

Cor

rect

ly

Actual Clinical Trials• Randomized

– Test subjects have equal likelihood of being in the control group or the experimental group

• Controlled– Control group is as identical as possible to the experimental group– Subjects in the control group take placebo

• Placebo should be undistinguishable from drug• Double-blind

– Neither the test subjects nor the researchers know who is in which group

• Replicated– Sample size is sufficient to separate effects due to the treatment from

effects due to chance

Attitude Toward Pseudosciences

• Survey Question on Astrology– Is it very scientific, somewhat scientific, or not at

all scientific?• Astrology is not at all scientific– If planets/stars/moons/asteroids have effect on

us, we could measure that effect– Believing that horoscope was accurate does not

equate to evidence• Confirmation bias

Survey ResultsAstrology Not at All Scientific

1979 1983 1985 1988 1990 1992 1995 1997 1999 2001 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Year

Perc

ent A

nsw

erin

g Co

rrec

tly

Pseudoscience

• Ideas which are presented as being scientific, but which fail to meet the standards of being scientific

Pseudoscientific Method

• Conclusion• Experiment (sometimes)• Accept data that support conclusion• Reject data that contradict conclusion• Never modify conclusion

Dowsing

• Locating water, minerals, other substances by use of divining rods– No scientific reason the process should work– No controlled scientific study has ever shown it to

work– Another example of post hoc reasoning• The dowser said there would be water here, and we got

a good well

– How does the dowsing rod know what the dowser is looking for?

Why Does it Appear to Work?

• Ideomotor Effect– Psychological phenomenon– Unconscious response– Phenomenon behind operation of Ouija board

• Device will point to where the operator knows or thinks the target is

Scientific Evaluation

• Munich Experiment 1987-1988– 500 dowsers tested for their “skill”– Best 43 were selected for further study– Subjects were asked to identify location of water

running through pipe– Hundreds of tests during two-year period– Six dowsers found to have results better than chance– Independent data analysis concluded that

unconventional statistics used to show the six better than chance

What’s the Harm

• ADE 651 bomb detector– Dowsing devise used by Iraqi police to detect bombs– Claims to detect guns, bombs, ammunition, bodies

• Global Technical GT 200 bomb detector– Used in Thailand, Mexico

• Sniffex bomb detector– Purchased by U.S. military for testing

• All have been shown to be no better than chance at detecting anything.

Intelligent Design

• Actually creationism– “Designer” substitutes for God– “Design” substitutes for creation

• Creationism not pseudoscience, but rather is outside the realm of scientific study– Not testable– Based on faith rather than observation and experimentation

• Intelligent design is pseudoscience because it presents religion as being scientific– Used in attempt to get creationism taught in science classes of

public schools

Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District

• 2004, Dover, Pennsylvania• School board required teaching of intelligent

design as alternative to evolution• Tried in U.S. District Court for the Middle

District of Pennsylvania– Judge John E. Jones III– Conservative Republican appointed 2002 by

George W. Bush

Basis For Lawsuit

• Intelligent design is not scientific, but is religious

• Teaching intelligent design violates the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment– “Congress shall make no law respecting an

establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . . .”

Decision of the Court

• “For the reasons that follow, we conclude that the religious nature of ID would be readily apparent to an objective observer, adult or child.”

• “The evidence at trial demonstrates that ID is nothing less than the progeny of creationism.”

• “. . . we find that while ID arguments may be true, a proposition on which the Court takes no position, ID is not science.”

Decision of the Court

• “. . . it is additionally important to note that ID has failed to gain acceptance in the scientific community, it has not generated peer-reviewed publications, nor has it been the subject of testing and research.”

• Accordingly, we find that the secular purposes claimed by the Board amount to a pretext for the Board’s real purpose, which was to promote religion in the public school classroom, in violation of the Establishment Clause.

Decision of the Court

• “The citizens of the Dover area were poorly served by the members of the Board who voted for the ID Policy. It is ironic that several of these individuals, who so staunchly and proudly touted their religious convictions in public, would time and again lie to cover their tracks and disguise the real purpose behind the ID Policy.”

Decision of the Court

“Those who disagree with our holding will likely mark it as the product of an activist judge. If so, they will have erred as this is manifestly not an activist Court. Rather, this case came to us as the result of the activism of an ill-informed faction on a school board, aided by a national public interest law firm eager to find a constitutional test case on ID, who in combination drove the Board to adopt an imprudent and ultimately unconstitutional policy. The breathtaking inanity of the Board’s decision is evident when considered against the factual backdrop which has now been fully revealed through this trial.”

What’s the Harm?

• Gives students wrong idea about “controversy”– There is no scientific controversy regarding

evolution, the age of the earth, the age of the universe, or other “controversial” topics

• Gives students a disadvantage when studying science– Attempts to stifle critical thinking

• Give students the false impression that science and religion are mutually exclusive

Homeopathy

• Samuel Hahnemann’s “law of similars” (1796)– Like cures like– If a concentrated solution causes symptoms, then

a dilute solution alleviates symptoms• More dilute solutions are more potent• Dilutions are typically so large that no

molecules of the original substance remain• Implies that water has a “memory” for the

active ingredient

Developing Homeopathic Remedies

• “Proving”– Administer substance to healthy individuals– Record all symptoms which occur after ingestion

• “Succession”– Extract material in water or ethanol– Grind solids with lactose– Perform several serial dilutions

Serial Dilutions

• Centesimal Scale– Substance diluted by factor of 100 at each stage

• Hahnemann advocated 30C dilutions– Substance diluted by factor of 100, then that

solution is diluted by a factor of 100, until the serial dilution has been performed 30 times

– Results in a solution that has been diluted by a factor of 10030 or 1060.

– Equivalent to putting much less than a drop of the substance in Earths oceans

Dilution Terminology

• 4C = a 100-fold dilution performed four times– Dilution factor of 1004 or 108

– Approximately equal to putting one drop of active ingredient in 1300 gallons of water

• 6X = a 10-fold dilution performed six times– Dilution factor of 106

Active IngredientAnas barbariae hepatis et cordis extractum 200C

Inactive Ingredients•Sucrose•Lactose

Oscillococcinum

• French physician Joseph Roy examined flu victims during 1917 Spanish Flu epidemic

• Claimed to find oscillating bacterium in blood of flu victims; named the bacterium Oscillococcus

• Searched animals for the bacterium, claimed to find the bacterium in a duck liver

200C Dilution

• Diluted by a factor of 100200, or 10400

• Equivalent to diluting one drop of substance in a sphere the size of the solar system

• And then repeating the dilution process eight times!

Other Ailments

• Nausea?– Try ipecacuanha.

• Can’t sleep?– Try coffea.

Why Do Pseudosciences Persist?

• “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”– Mark Twain

• Publicity in the media– Finding Bigfoot (Animal Planet)– Ancient Aliens (History International)– Ghost Hunters (Syfy)– Long Island Medium (TLC)– The Dr. Oz Show (syndicated)

Conclusions

• Science provides method for systematically studying the physical world and gaining a greater understanding of its processes.– These processes are not affected by our beliefs, our

feelings, or our opinions of them.• There are many topics which are outside the realm

of science.– These topics cannot be studied by the scientific

process.– Science and these topics are not mutually exclusive.