Science and Policy Innovations for a Low-Carbon Economy · 31-03-2010 · Renewable and...
Transcript of Science and Policy Innovations for a Low-Carbon Economy · 31-03-2010 · Renewable and...
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Science and Policy Innovations for a Low-Carbon Economy
Daniel M. Kammen
Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory
Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center
University of California, Berkeley
http://rael.berkeley.eduUCLA IoE Oppenheim Lecture, Los Angeles, CA March 31, 2010
University of
California,
Berkeley
Renewable
and Appropriate
Energy Laboratory
UC Berkeley
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Switch: Transmission, Storage & End-Use
Low-Carbon energy analysis and planning
Renewable
and Appropriate
Energy Laboratory
UC Berkeley
Transportation
Sustainability
Research Center
TSRC: Transportation options, planning and
systems science: EV/PHEV, biofuels, LCA
Energy &
development
- science
- technology
- economics
- health
- policies
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
The battle of tipping points
• The climate crisis – constant reminders
• Developing innovative technical and social „tipping
points‟ is vital
• Carbon pricing is needed in as many settings as
possible – ahead of adoption via the COP process
• Energy „Systems Thinking‟ is critically needed
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
NASA Synthesis Data, 1980 - 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Annual worldwide CO2 emissions have grown
faster than any of the IPCC 2001 scenariosRecent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Observed
2000-2006
3.3%
2006
2005
CO
2em
issi
ons
(Pg C
yr-
1)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CEC Data
Business as Usual
AB 32 Scenario
% Change from 1990 levels
California Global Warming Solutions Act:
~25% cut in emissions by 2020
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S
. G
HG
Em
issio
ns (
GT
C e
q.)
Historic U. S.
emissions
Business as usual (EIA)
Kyoto protocol
Administration intensity target
IPCC Assessment: Climate Stabilization Zone
Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
The Cascade of Commitment:
IPCC Science, CA and US targets
The Obama climate target
The California target
EU Copenhagen plan
(2020 = 1990 less 25 – 40%
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
BERKELEY
REPORT OF THE
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY
LABORATORY
Putting Renewables to Work:
How Many Jobs Can the
Clean Energy Industry
Generate?
by
Daniel M. Kammen
Kamal Kapadia
Matthias Fripp
of the
Energy and Resources Group &
the Goldman School of Public Policy
APRIL 13, 2004
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
• All new residential construction in California
will be zero net energy by 2020.
Residential New Construction
Energy Efficiency Strategies
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Technological Innovation: solar
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Technology Assessments
http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/
Project coordinator: Sunil Paul
Scientific advisor: Dan Kammen
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Actual PV Growth vs. Historic Forecasts
Actual
market
development
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Information Technology Integrated with
Solar Technology: Performance Monitoring
00111001
Enphase Application
Servers
Internet00111001
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Micro-inverters versus traditional designs:
A household and building electronics strategy
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Market Innovation: Financial tools
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu 17
• Creates financing district
& approval process
• Provides upfront capital
• Attaches repayment
obligation to the building
• Identifies work & chooses
contractor
• Repays financing as a line item on
the property tax bill
• Repayment obligation transfers with
ownership
• Builds clean energy equity
$$ Upfront
$$ Repaid
on tax bill
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Property Assessed
Clean Energy
(PACE):
State Actions
PACE financing has
now been adopted
by the White House
for support and
appears in the US
House Climate Bill
(Waxman-Markey)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Technological & market Innovation:
biofuels
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Carbon Intensity of Fuels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Gasoline -
CaRFG + 10%
Ethanol
Midwest
Corn Ethanol
(Ave)
Sugarcane
Ethanol
(Brazil)
California
Ethanol (Dry
mill, Wet
DGS)
Cellulosic
Ethanol
(Farmed
Poplar)
Cellulosic
Ethanol
(Waste)
Electricity
(Ca
Marginal)
Hydrogen
(SB1505)
Fuel Type
Carb
on
In
ten
sit
y (
CO
2e/M
J)
Indirect
Direct
Baseline
2020
Target
Today's Biofuels Future Low-Carbon Fuels
Energy Biosciences InstituteUniversity of California, Berkeley
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
A $500 million biofuel development grant from BP
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
LCA GHG emissions from tar sands:10 to 30% greater emissions
relative to conventional gasoline and diesel
• A number of studies have been conducted based on both current operations or future
operations with most studies estimating between 10 to 30% increased emissions on a
well-to-wheel basis (specific value dependent on the bitumen extraction, upgrading, and
refining process (e.g. mining versus in-situ).*
• Loss of soil and biogenic carbon can be significant and have not been generally included
NRDC Whte Paper and Environmental Research Letters
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Min
ed
Bitum
en &
Sta
ndalo
ne
Upgra
der
Min
ed
Bitum
en &
Refinery
Upgra
din
g
Min
ed
Bitum
en &
Sta
ndalo
ne
Upgra
der
Min
ed
Bitum
en &
Inte
gra
ted
Upgra
der
In-S
itu &
Sta
ndalo
ne
Upgra
der
In-S
itu
(SA
GD
)
and
Refinery
In-s
itu
(CS
S)
&
Refiner
Upgra
din
g
In-S
itu
(SA
GD
) &
Sta
ndalo
ne
Upgra
der
In-S
itu
(CS
S)
&
Sta
ndalo
ne
Upgra
der
GREET
1.8b
NRCan (2008) - GHGenius 3.13 GREET
1.8b
NRCan (2008) - GHGenius 3.13Inc
rea
se
in
Lif
ec
yc
le G
HG
Em
iss
ion
s
vs
U.S
. 2
00
5 a
ve
rag
e g
as
olin
e
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu24
Clean vehicles, low carbon fuels, and
Smart Growth are all needed
Preliminary 2050 Scenario (On-Road Vehicles, California)
Source: NRDC Analysis
• California’s 2020 goal requires about 25% reduction from Business-as-Usual.
• California's 2050 goal is 80% reduction from 1990 levels.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
GH
G E
mis
sio
ns (
MM
T C
O2
e)
.
Vehicle Efficiency
VMT
Low Carbon
Fuels
CA Target:
80% below
1990
Remaining Emissions
Plug-in Hybrids:
Can they move rapidly to scale?
Research & Action Flow on Low-Carbon
Transportation
Report Timeline
Searchinger, T, Hamburg, S, Melillo, J, Kammen, DM, Lubowski, R,
Oppenheimer, M. Robertson, GP, Schlessinger, W, and Tilman, GD (2009) “Fixing
a critical climate accounting error”, Science, 326, 527 – 528
Angelides, P and Kammen, DM (2009) “Invest pollution trading dividends in the
clean energy industry”, San Francisco Chronicle, April 2, A-15.
Kammen, DM, Arons, S, Lemoine, D, and Hummel, H (2009) “Cost-effectiveness
of greenhouse gas emission reductions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,” in
Plug-in Electric Vehicles: What Role for Washington? (Brookings Institute:
Washington, DC), Chapter 9, 170 – 191.
Lemoine, D, Kammen, DM, and Farrell, AE (2008) “An innovation and policy
agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles”,
Environmental Research Letters, 3, 1 – 8.
Kammen, DM, Farrell, AE, Plevin, RJ, Jones, AD, O’Hare, M, Nemet, G, and
Delucci, MA (2007) Biofuels: Linking Support to Performance (OECD Roundtable
on Biofuels).
Farrell AE, Plevin, RJ Turner, B T, Jones, AD, O’Hare, M and Kammen, DM
(2006) “Ethanol can contribute to energy and environmental goals”, Science,
311, 506 – 508.
Action Timeline
March 2010: IPCC and
Roundtable on
Sustainable Biofuels
develop protocols for
carbon accounting
October 2009: US-
China Electric Vehicle
Summit
June 2008: CA adopts
PHEV/EV metrics in
Low-Carbon Fuel
Standard (& WA, OR)
January 2007 (CA Ex
Order S-7-01) Adopts
Low-Carbon Fuel
Standard
time
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
How does it work?
As simple as your navigator
Virtual EV uses well-established modeling practices to model the performance of a variety of electrified vehicles.
VEV will validate and calibrate its models using relationships with OEMs, advanced vehicle simulator software, as well as testing real electrified vehicles.
Turn on Smart Phone
app or telemetry
device.
Sign up on VEV Co.
website
Drive. Your device
sends VEV Co. your
location and speed .
VEV Co. “translates”
your data into
performance for a
variety of EVs.
Visit your page to
explore your virtual
plug-in day (more on
next slide).
1 2 3 4 5
Beyond our iPhone app, VEV Co. can work with devices that plug into a vehicle’s On Board Diagnostics port, common in commercial fleets, and some GPS devices.
VEV logs your real world driving behavior, and translates it into virtual performance for a variety of electrified vehicles.
Figure : Model output (battery state of charge) for a pilot drivers in a virtual EREV 40 based on the Chevy Volt.
McKinsey 2010, Ernst and Young 2010
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
The education happens at our web interface:
consumers to explore their Virtual EV day
VEV Co. picks the car
with the lowest fuel costs
for each day.
Line colors designate which fuel powered
the car at each moment in time.
User can visualize
different EV options.
Actual miles driven and MPG for each
day. Most Americans do not know these
two facts about their driving.
Graph compares fuel
costs for all options.
Users can see data at
multiple levels.
Summary box makes a
recommendation for the
best EV match based on
the entire test drive
period, and offers links to
more information and
dealer websites.
Beyond EV education, our site tells users their basic driving stats (like daily
fuel cost) and generate revenue through links to auto dealers.
Screen shot of VEV Co.
website
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Aggregated VEV Co. data helps answer
important questions about recharging
needs, grid preparation
By aggregating data,
VEV offers a unique
input to help answer
questions like “where
should the city invest
in public charging
stations” or “where
can utilities expect to
see lots of recharging,
and at what times of
day?”
Utilities, cities, and charge station providers will value this data.
Location of over-
night recharge for
vehicles who did not
run out of electricity
during the day. (EREV)
Location where
vehicles switched from
electric to gas fuel.
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The Electric Jeepney (eJeepney) in Makati
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Charcoal Fuel and Improved Stove Value Chain in Tanzania
(joint with the Blum Center on Poverty and Development
Charcoal production for Dar-es-Salaam (Malimbwi and Zahabu, 2007)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Establishing Effective Cookstove Dissemination Strategies in Tanzania
A partnership with the:
Tanzanian Commission on
Science and Technology
KUUTE Customers in MorogoroKUUTE Brochure
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Design and
knowledge of
improved stoves
requires a flow of
awareness and the
re-design of market
innovations.Jiko la paipu liko wapi? Where is the
“pipe stove”?
Tanzanian
Commission
+
Berkeley
Artisans Vendors Consumers
Flow of awareness about the pipe stove benefits
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Information innovation: Policy and
environmental accounting
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Switch SummaryJames Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Autum Petros-Good, Christian Blanco,
Daniel Kammen, PI (UC Berkeley)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Generator Model
Objective: Minimize Total System Cost, Subject to GHG Constraints
New
Pla
nts
Exis
ting P
lants
T &
D
Sunk
Spring Summer Fall Winter
s
Dispatch Mix in 2024 @ $0/ton CO2
s
Dispatch Mitch in 2024 @ $50/ton CO2
Spring Summer Fall Winter
The SWITCH West Energy System
Model:
The Switch model is a geo-referenced model of the WECC region that:
- Matches conventional, nuclear, and renewable energy supply to
demand.
- Utilizes energy efficiency and demand-side management (to be
completed)
- Does so with the construction of transmission and distribution
infrastructure
- Has planned expansions to Texas (ERCOT), the US East, and China
(major task)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Genera
tion (
MW
)
Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)
New WindNew Offshore WindNew Distributed PVNew CSP TroughNew BiomassHydro + Pumped StorageNew NuclearExisting NuclearNew GeothermalExisting GeothermalNew Combustion TurbineNew CCGTExisting Gas CogenExisting GasNew CoalExisting Coal CogenExisting Coal
Electricity Supply in Western North American Forecast versus carbon price in 2024
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
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Avera
ge G
enera
tion (G
W)
Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)
Average Generation in 2026-2030New Wind
New Offshore_Wind
Existing Wind
New Distributed_PV
New CSP_Trough_6h_TES
New Biomass_IGCC
New Bio_Gas
New Geothermal
Existing Geothermal_ST
Existing Geothermal_BT
Existing Hydro_Pumped
Existing Hydro_NonPumpedNew Nuclear
Existing Uranium_ST
New CCGT
New Gas_Steam_Turbine
New Gas_Combustion_TurbineExisting Gas_ST
Existing Gas_IC
Existing Gas_GT
Existing Gas_CC
Existing Gas_CC Cogen
Existing Gas_ST Cogen
Existing Gas_IC Cogen
Existing Gas_GT Cogen
New Coal_IGCC
Old Transmission Lines
New Transmission Lines
Predicted transmission $50t/CO2 in 2024
Greenhouse gas and sustainability
calculators:
http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu
&
http://www.coolcalifornia.org
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu