Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD District Housing 1Q 2017 … · 2017. 5. 24. · 10. Saddle Creek...
Transcript of Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD District Housing 1Q 2017 … · 2017. 5. 24. · 10. Saddle Creek...
Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD
District Housing
Activity Report 1Q 2017
Solutions Through Demographics
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GREATER SAN ANTONIO NEW HOME STARTS, CLOSINGS,
& LOT DELIVERIES
Year-Over-Year Change
Annual Starts +3.1%
Annual Closings +5.1%
Annual Starts: 10,811
Annual Closings: 10,204
Start = Foundation started
Closing = Occupied home
In 1Q17, Greater San Antonio homebuilders produced more than 3,000 starts in a quarter for the
first time this cycle (3,076 total homes)
Region’s annual starts rate climbs to 10,811 (+3.1% vs. same period a year ago)
10,204 annual closings is a new record for the current housing cycle and most since early 2008
Developers delivered 11,819 new single-family lots over the past 12 months (+6.8% YoY)
Current Cycle
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Greater San Antonio New
Home Closings by School
District: 5 Year Aggregate
Total (2012-2016)
Rank District 5-Year Total
1 Northside 15,496
2 Comal 6,671
3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 3,542
4 Judson 3,250
5 North East 2,913
6 Boerne 2,563
7 New Braunfels 2,363
8 East Central 2,115
9 Southwest 1,889
10 Medina Valley 1,650
3rd Most
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Greater San Antonio School
District Enrollment Growth:
5 Year Aggregate Total
2011/12 - 2016/17 S.Y.
Rank District 5-Year Total
1 Northside 8,035
2 Comal 4,423
3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 2,437
4 Boerne 1,547
5 Southwest 1,432
6 Medina Valley 1,162
7 East Central 765
8 New Braunfels 600
9 San Marcos Con. 577
10 Judson 534
Source: Texas Education Agency PEIMS Standard Reports
3rd Most
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GROWTH DRIVERS: GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL JOB GROWTH(8 county MSA: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendell, Medina, Wilson counties)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission Current Employment Survey (CES)
Unemployment Rates – March 2017
San Antonio: 4.1%
Austin: 3.6%, DFW: 4.0%, Houston: 5.7%
Texas: 5.0%, US: 4.6%
Annual Job Growth =
+24,500 (+2.4% Y-o-Y)
25-year Avg. =18,023
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GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL CHANGE IN
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
March 2017Annual
Change% Change
Mining and Logging -300 -10.5%
Construction +1,900 +4.9%
Manufacturing +1,600 -2.8%
Trade, Transp, Util +3,000 +0.5%
Information -400 -1.4%
Financial Activities +300 +0.8%
Prof & Bus Services +4,900 +3.1%
Edu. & Health Serv. +9,700 +2.8%
Leisure & Hospitality +500 +2.9%
Other Services +1,200 +10.4%
Government +2,100 +2.4%Source: TWC
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3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Freddie Mac
April 27,2017
30YR : 4.03%
15YR : 3.27%
1YR ARM : 3.12%
30-Yr Fixed Rate Outlook
Mortgage Bankers
AssociationConforming Rates: 4/18/17 Forecast
2Q17 4.3%
3Q17 4.4%
4Q17 4.6%
1Q18 4.7%
30-Yr Conforming Rates (Freddie Mac)
Rates subside
slightly as market
enters 2Q17
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GROWTH DRIVERS: 30-YR MORTGAGE RATES
GROWTH DRIVERS: SAN ANTONIO MSA EXISTING
HOME SALES
Annual Resale Rate (3/17) 31,757+7.5% vs. 1 Year Ago
Month Supply of Listings: 3.0
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
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Pre-owned sales in the region continue to increase; however, the supply of
listings remains extremely tight at 3.0 months (6 months considered normal)
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S.C.U.C. ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES
• 316 existing home sales in
the 1st quarter of 2017
• 1,665 total resales from
2Q16-1Q17 (+10.4% YoY)
• District’s median resale sold
price for the past 12 months
was $215,000 (+4.9% YoY)
• Greater San Antonio Median
Resale Price currently $200K
(+8.1% YoY)
Source: SABORSF Sales Only
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S.C.U.C. ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
Builders start 194 and close 189 new homes in the district during the 1st quarter
Most 1st quarter starts in 9 years
Starts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1Q 156 151 173 158 170 159 194 1Q 178 150 154 119 149 238 189
2Q 211 197 198 195 231 193 2Q 208 139 181 179 176 248
3Q 184 174 215 184 286 200 3Q 231 183 177 163 224 216
4Q 151 159 136 165 247 147 4Q 178 178 170 163 162 173
Total 702 681 722 702 934 699 194 Total 795 650 682 624 711 875 189
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S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Annual Starts: 734
Annual Closings: 826
Year-Over-Year Change
Annual Starts -20.5%
Annual Closings +3.3%
Annual starts are down 20.5% compared to this time last year (734 total starts)
District closings are up 3.3% over the past 12 months to 826 homes
Since 2Q11, district builders have produced an average of 745 starts & 725 closings per yr.
Developers delivered 960 new single-family lots (SF) over the past year
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
Rank District
Total Starts
2Q16-1Q17
Total Closings
2Q16-1Q17
1 Northside 3,647 3,533
2 Comal 1,799 1,660
3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 734 826
4 Judson 919 763
5 Boerne 662 654
6 New Braunfels 653 561
7 North East 488 535
8 Medina Valley 464 483
9 Southwest 369 360
10 East Central 403 331
11 San Marcos Con. 256 164
12 Seguin 128 134
13 Southside 91 89
14 Navarro 87 89
15 San Antonio 158 49
16 South San Antonio 46 38
17 Harlandale 59 47
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GREATER SAN ANTONIO SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS
BY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
• SCUC ISD continues
to rank 3rd in annual
new home closings
among all Greater
San Antonio school
districts
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
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S.C.U.C. ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY CITY
2Q16-1Q17 District Closings: 49% Cibolo, 33% Schertz, 13% Selma, 5% Converse
Closing = Occupied home
1. Turning Stone (All) 131 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2019
2. Kensington Ranch (All) 104 Paschal/Schertz Wilder Schertz/Selma 2017
3. Saratoga 94 Green Valley Schlather Cibolo 2021
4. Riata Terrace 64 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2020
5. Landmark Pointe 61 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2022
6. The Crossvine 56 Rose Garden Jordan Schertz 2040
7. Willow Grove (All) 54 Rose Garden Wilder Schertz 2019
8. Rhine Valley 47 Watts Wilder Schertz 2023
9. Cibolo Vista (All) 46 Cibolo Valley Jordan Cibolo 2018
10. Saddle Creek Ranch 39 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2024
11. MacArthur Park 39 Rose Garden Jordan Converse 2016
12. Fairway Ridge 21 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2018
13. Heights of Cibolo 20 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2021
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S.C.U.C. ISD TOP PRODUCING NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS
Annual
Closings
2Q16-1Q17
Elementary
Attendance
Zone
4 of the top 10 producers are located in the Cibolo Valley ES zone
Intermediate
Attendance
ZoneCity
Projected
Build-out
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NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE
• 36% of new homes occupied
over the past 12 months were
located in the Cibolo Valley ES
zone
• Paschal, Schertz, and Rose
Garden zones (combined)
produced 32% of new home
occupancies over the past year
• Annual closings in the Green
Valley ES zone increase to 112
units
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NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY INTERMEDIATE ZONE
The Schlather zone continues to be the most active zone in the district with
53% of annual closings over the past 12 months
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NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY
JUNIOR HIGH/HIGH SCHOOL ZONE
Activity continues to shift back to the Dobie JH/Steele HS zones
61% of the district’s closings over the past 12 months occurred in the Dobie
JH/Steele HS zones
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DISTRICT MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE
67% of new homes are being
built in neighborhoods priced
between $201K and $300K
Annual activity over $300K is up
144% compared to same period
last year
The district’s median new home
price increases to a new high of
$273,357 in 1Q17 (+5.8% Y-o-Y)
Greater San Antonio median
new home price now $262K
(+2.8% Y-o-Y)
Median New Home Price by City
Cibolo = $271,679
Schertz = $289,150
Selma = $218,640
Converse = $225,500
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SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD
NEW RESIDENTIAL LOTS DELIVERIES
189 new lots delivered in 1Q 2017
1,816 vacant developed lots remaining as of March 31, 2017
(29.7 month supply)
Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City
Mesa at Turning Stone
6 22 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Saratoga 2, 5 94 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Cypress Point 4 73 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz
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SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD
RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT
396 future lots under development as of March 2017
Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City
Landmark Pointe 5 46 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Saratoga 6 49 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Bindseil Farms 1 84 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
The Crossvine 1-4B 67 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
The Homestead 3B, 4 124 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz
Hunter’s Way 1 26 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig
95 lots are in Cibolo
275 lots are in Schertz
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AERIAL PHOTOS
APRIL 4, 2017
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HUNTER’S WAY (St. Hedwig)
Future Asher Place
Future Heather’s Place
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KENSINGTON RANCH
FM 1518
Schertz ESPaschal ES
Green Valley ES
48 lots left to close (Schertz ES zone)
Schertz ES
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ESTATES AT MESA OAKS / MISTY WOODS /
BINDSEIL FARMS
Misty Woods – 36 lots (Paschal ES)
Bindseil Farms – 85 lots (Schertz ES zone)
Estates at Mesa Oaks – 56 lots (Paschal ES)
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RHINE VALLEY
Corbett JH
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THE CROSSVINE (Northwest Side)
Sedona
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THE CROSSVINE (South Side)
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NEW ROSE GARDEN ELEMENTARY
CONSTRUCTION
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SARATOGA
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TURNING STONE
Dean Rd.
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LANDMARK POINTE
Green Valley Rd.
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HOMESTEAD
FutureSCUC ISD
School Site
SCUC ISD
Comal ISD
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CYPRESS POINT
SCUC ISD
Comal ISD
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RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY ELEM. ZONE 1Q17
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS
2Q16-1Q17
VACANT DEVELOPED
LOTS REMAINING
PLANNED
FUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE
APARTMENT UNITS
CIBOLO VALLEY 256 458 376 0
GREEN VALLEY 124 242 219 0
PASCHAL 29 66 0 0
ROSE GARDEN 105 328 2,575 0
SCHERTZ 77 20 230 0
SIPPEL 109 526 1,303 0
WATTS 30 160 202 0
WIEDERSTEIN 4 16 2,648 600
TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600
Future apartment total has increased from 288 (Silverfin) to 600 total
units with the addition of the Trophy Oaks development in Red River Ranch
(312 units); both projects are currently in the Wiederstein ES zone
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S.C.U.C ISD RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY IS, JH, AND HS ZONE
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2Q16-1Q17
VACANT
DEVELOPED
LOTS REMAINING
PLANNEDFUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT
UNITS
JORDAN 108 298 5,223 600
SCHLATHER 430 1,112 1,816 0
WILDER 196 406 514 0
TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2Q16-1Q17
VACANT
DEVELOPED
LOTS REMAINING
PLANNEDFUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT
UNITS
CORBETT/CLEMENS 255 661 4,524 312
DOBIE/STEELE 479 1,155 3,029 288
TOTAL 734 1,816 7,553 600
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DISTRICT NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST(Based on known projects as of 1Q 2017)
SCUC ISD poised to see an average of 745 new home
occupancies per year over the next five years
New apartment developments projected to open in
2018
Annual Period = 4Q-3Q
District is averaging 0.78 students per new
home occupancy
S.C.U.C. ISD continues to see an average of
0.33 students per multi-family unit
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DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST (FALL 2017- FALL 2026) Moderate:
2.9% avg.
annual
growth over
the next 5
years before
leveling off
near 2.5%
Low:
2.1% Avg.
Annual
Growth
Projected Net Student Growth
3 Yrs: 1,3395 Yrs: 2,28610 Yrs: 4,167
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DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST MODERATE CAMPUS PROJECTIONS VS. MAX CAPACITY
Max Capacity = 5,968
Max Capacity = 2,700 Max Capacity = 2,644
Max Capacity = 4,630
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S.C.U.C. ISD 1Q17 SUMMARY• The district continues to see the 3rd most annual new home construction among Greater
San Antonio’s 32 school districts
• Since the 2011/12 school year, SCUC ISD has seen the 3rd most total enrollment growth among all Greater San Antonio school districts
• District new home builders produced 194 starts and 189 closings in 1Q17
Most 1st quarter starts in 9 years
• 734 new homes started and 826 occupied in the district over the past 12 months
SCUC ISD has averaged 725 closings per year since 2Q11 (start of current housing cycle)
• 49% of new home construction occurred in the City of Cibolo and 33% in Schertz
• Cibolo Valley ES attendance zone remains the most active with 36% of annual closings
• Rose Garden, Paschal, and Schertz zones combined to produce 32% of district closings
• District’s median new home price now a record $273,357 (+5.8% Y-o-Y)
• Developers delivered 960 new lots over the past 12 months
• 1,816 fully developed vacant single family lots remaining as of March 31, 2017
• 396 future lots under development (275 lots located in Schertz, 95 in Cibolo)
• Another 7,157 future single-family residential lots are planned plus 600 apartments
• SCUC ISD is projected to average 745 new homes per year over the next 5 years
• District enrollment is projected to increase by 2-3% annually over the next 5 years
Copyright 2017 School District Strategies
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Copyright 2017 School District Strategies.
Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, SDS
does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents SDS’s estimates as of the date of the report
and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to
the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. SDS WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES,
INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO SDS’S SERVICES
HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER
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WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY SDS SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY
PAID TO SDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT.
The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set
forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume: that the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any
major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report; that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate
forecast; that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are accurate and complete in all material respects, and that
such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes; the proposed real estate development projects described herein, when completed, will be
designed, promoted, and managed in a manner that will have an impact on the local market that is reasonably consistent with other similar projects in the past; and
that the recommendations set forth in this report will be acted upon within a reasonable period of time to preclude major changes in the factual conditions
evaluated.
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