Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting

1

Scenarios in a Partnership

Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton

June 2014

Workshop: Developments in Scenario Planning

www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Role of consultants

• Process design

• Introduction to/training in use of tools

• Technology transfer

• Specialist skills

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Strategy cycle

• The hard bit starts here!

• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Sense Making Setting

Priorities

Implementation Strategic

Intelligence

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Board awareness

• The hard bit starts here!

• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Sense Making Setting

Priorities

Implementation Strategic

Intelligence

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Board awareness

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Board engagement

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Strategic Intelligence

• Process leading to 14 key drivers

• Deck of cards

• Role of Three Horizons tool

• Role of programme support

• Interviews & role of Panels

• Desk research

• Use of intranet

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• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change

Robust decisions in uncertain times

MANAGER VISIONARY ENTREPRENEUR

Eg,

MUSIC,

MOVIES,

CDs,

DVDs

Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES –

transformational disruptor

- iTunes

Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES

– paradigm buster -

Napster

Three Horizons: Mindsets

23/06/2014 7 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Key Role of Panels

• Each led by “emerging” partner

• 6 members including future leaders

– New graduate

– High flyer

• Each Panel had to complete 6-10

interviews using 7 Questions

– Insiders, outsiders/clients, futurists

– Outsiders reacted very positively

– Panel members pleasantly surprised! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Sense making

• Scenario workshop

– Participants – NLB + Panels + LOB leaders

– Style – workshop – 7 groups

– Input – 14 key drivers

– Outputs

• Writing up the scenarios

– Naming the scenarios

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• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions

Robust decisions in uncertain times

The scenario matrix

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Scenarios built

from drivers in this

box plus trends

Fore

ca

sta

ble

Incorporate in

scenarios and

track for the

business plan

Important

Less important

Uncerta

in These could be

really disruptive,

to be watched

These trends form

part of the back

story of the

scenarios

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Key Role of Panels

• All Panel members took part in Scenario

Workshop

• Testing the scenarios

– Panel members took scenarios out to test with

3 groups of public, e.g.

• Groups of schoolchildren

• Women’s Institute

• NFU branch

• Investment clubs

• etc www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Setting priorities

• Using the scenario to wind-tunnel

strategies

– Participants in the workshop – NLB + LOB

leaders + Panel Chairs

– Style – 4 groups

– Inputs - scenarios

– Outputs – portfolio of options

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• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Process

Brainstorm

Calibrate

Options

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Options

Familiar

Unfamiliar

Uncertain

Current contribution Mature in 2-5 years Mature in 5+ years

Robust decisions in uncertain times

• The hard bit starts here!

Implementation

• Future Perspectives session at May

Partners’ Conference

– top 120 of 4,700 staff

– Used scenarios in relation to client case

studies in workshop mode

• Use scenarios with clients

– Building on strong interest from interviews

– And from testing workshops

• Use to steer internal priorities

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

For more.....

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