Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian...

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Kinematic models 3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods Geometric interpolation methods

Transcript of Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian...

Page 1: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 2: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 3: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 4: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Example of a fault model:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 5: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Example of a fault model:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 6: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Example of a fault model:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 7: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Example of a fault model:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 8: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Code example for fault model

Page 9: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Kinematic modelling

Advantage

Parameterisation of geological history

High level of complexity possible with multiple events

Automation and implementation in Python scripts straight-forward

Very fast computation, even for complex models

More examples

Page 10: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Kinematic modelling

Advantage

Parameterisation of geological history

High level of complexity possible with multiple events

Automation and implementation in Python scripts straight-forward

Very fast computation, even for complex models

More examples

Page 11: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields

J. Florian Wellmann1, Mark Lindsay2 and Mark Jessell2

(1) Graduate School AICES, RWTH Aachen University(2) Centre for Exploration Targeting (CET), The University of Western Australia

PICO presentation — EGU 2015

April 15, 2015

Page 12: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Overview of Presentation

I “PICO madness”

I Fault exampleI Basic concept I Geophysics

I Automation andset-up of repro-

ducible experiments

Page 13: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Kinematic modelling concept

Idea behind kinematic modelling

Evaluate interaction between tectonic events in geological history

Define influence of events on pre-existing geology with purelykinematic methods

Page 14: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Kinematic modelling concept

Idea behind kinematic modelling

Evaluate interaction between tectonic events in geological history

Define influence of events on pre-existing geology with purelykinematic methods

Page 15: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 16: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 17: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Kinematic models

3-D Modeling methods - “endmembers” in modelling methods

Geometric interpolationmethods

Kinematic modellingapproach

Full dynamic simulations

Page 18: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Additional considerations

Advantage

Parameterisation of geological history

High level of complexity possible with multiple events

Very fast computation, even for complex models

Direct extension to geophysical forward modelling

Disadvantage

Simplification of processes (no dynamics!)

Implementation

Original code in C (first published in 70’s!)

pynoddy: new implementation in Python, linking to C-code

(Now) a high level of flexibility for automation

All open source: see I pynoddy project page.

Page 19: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Additional considerations

Advantage

Parameterisation of geological history

High level of complexity possible with multiple events

Very fast computation, even for complex models

Direct extension to geophysical forward modelling

Disadvantage

Simplification of processes (no dynamics!)

Implementation

Original code in C (first published in 70’s!)

pynoddy: new implementation in Python, linking to C-code

(Now) a high level of flexibility for automation

All open source: see I pynoddy project page.

Page 20: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Additional considerations

Advantage

Parameterisation of geological history

High level of complexity possible with multiple events

Very fast computation, even for complex models

Direct extension to geophysical forward modelling

Disadvantage

Simplification of processes (no dynamics!)

Implementation

Original code in C (first published in 70’s!)

pynoddy: new implementation in Python, linking to C-code

(Now) a high level of flexibility for automation

All open source: see I pynoddy project page.

Page 21: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Setting up a simple model with pynoddy

Model set-up

A simple pynoddy model can be defined with a few lines of code. The firststep is (usually) to define an initial stratigraphy, for example as asedimentary layer-cake:

Page 22: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W Development of a faultnetwork model withpynoddy:

initial stratigraphicpile,

Page 23: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Setting up a simple model with pynoddy

Adding one fault

Additional code to add both faults:

Page 24: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Development of a faultnetwork model withpynoddy:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 25: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Development of a faultnetwork model withpynoddy:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 26: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Development of a faultnetwork model withpynoddy:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 27: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Simple fault model

(d) Event 1 + Event 2: combined e�ect of faults

(a) Initial Stratigraphy

(c) Event 2: Fault E(b) Event 1: Fault W

Development of a faultnetwork model withpynoddy:

initial stratigraphicpile,

effect of the firstfault only,

effect of the secondfault only,

combined effect ofboth faults.

Page 28: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

Back to overview.

Changing aspects of existing models

Concept

Basic concept: possible to load and modifyexisting history files, e.g.:

Created with (original) Noddy GUI(limited to Windows);

From online repository, I Atlas ofStructural Geophysics

Loading models from the Atlas of Virtual Geophysics

It is possible to directly load models into the Python modules:

Page 29: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Selected model from Virtual Geophysics Atlas

Figure: Sections through the fold and thurst belt model in (a) NS-direction, and(b) EW-direction (vertical exaggeration of 1.5) through the centre of the model.(c) Three-dimensional representation for the central three layers of the fold andthrust belt model. The gray surfaces correspond to the location of the sections inthe figure above.

Page 30: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Calculation of geophysical fields

Gravity and Magnetic field calculation

pynoddy enables the calculation of geophysical fields directly fromthe generated block models.

In the combination with the Python scripts, it is easily possible tochange aspects of model and evaluate the effect on the simulatedpotential field.

Example of gravity calculation

Change event parameters:

Update modelled gravity field:

Page 31: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Comparison of gravity fields

Figure: Gravity of original and changed model

Page 32: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Stratigraphic difference between generated block models

Figure: Stratigraphic difference between the two generated block models

Page 33: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Automation and reproducible experiments

Concept

Main idea: enable definition of reproducible experiments

Implementation

Definition of an Experiment class to combine pre- andpostprocessing methods

Additional basic settings to store experiment settings (number ofrealsiations, random seeds, etc.)

Specific experiment types can easily be defined by inheriting from thebase experiment class.

Page 34: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Experiment setup

Creating an experiment object

Experiment objects can be created directly from an existing history file:

Experiment classes combine pre- and postprocessing of kinematic modelsand the model is recomputed whenever required:

Which directly creates this section plot:

Page 35: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Outlook

IPython Notebooks

Many more examples about model manipulation and experiment extensionare available online as interactive IPython notebooks!

Page 36: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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Gippsland Basin study

Experiment for uncertainty analysis in the Gippsland Basin

Page 37: Scenario Testing and Sensitivity Analysis for 3-D Kinematic Models and Geophysical Fields - Florian Wellman, RWTH Aachen

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More information

Thank you for viewing the presentation!

More information

If you are interested, please have a look at available online resources:

I pynoddy repository on github (feel free to download, modify, andcontribute!)

I Online documentation about pynoddy

There is also a set of I online tutorials available.

See I Abstract for this presentation