Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Welcome Bienvenidos Presenter:Stacy...

Scenario Planning

Sustainable Futures 2003

Plan de Escenario

WelcomeBienvenidos

Presenter:Stacy Harwood

Scenario Planning What do you think might happen in Los Llanos and Cañitas in the future?

Planificación de Escenarios¿Qué piensan que puede pasar en el futuro en Los Llanos y Cañitas?

Symposium June 27, 2003

Simposio 27 de junio de 2003

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación

Presenter: Yelias Bender

I. Project Overview and Introduction /

II. Study Area /

III. Inventory and Analysis /

IV. Projected Growth and Implications /

V. Introduction to Scenarios Building /

VI. Next Steps /

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario


Presenter: Marisa Zapata


II. Study Area /




VI. Next Steps /

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Introduction Introducción


• Scenario planning basics/

• Why scenario planning in monteverde/

• Project context/

• Project goals/

• Project objectives/

• Identifying assumptions and uncertainties (inventory of data}/

• Scenarios Developed

• Project Assumptions

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Scenario Planning Basics IntroductionBasicos de plan de escenario Introducción

• Scenario planning is the process of creating “reasonably plausible, but structurally different” outcomes for the future *

• Scenario planning helps communities conceptualize how their future may unfold under a given set of criteria

• Scenario building versus visioning

* Heijden, as quoted in Avin and Dembner

Presenter: Marisa

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

•Undergoing significant change with uncertain outcomes Sufre cambios significativos con resultados inciertos

• Community interest in long term planning for the region

Comunidad interesada en planificación a largo plazo

• Diversity of values and views about the future Diversidad en valores y visiones del futuro

Why scenario planning in Monteverde Zone? ¿Por que la planificación de escenarios en Monteverde?

Introduction

Introducción


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Project Context Introduction

Contexto de Proyecto Introducción

Scenario Planning in the Monteverde Zone

• 2001: Monteverde, Cerro Plano

• 2002: Santa Elena

• 2003: Los Llanos, Cañitas

• 2004: San Luis, La Lindora …


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario


Project Goals IntroductionMetas del Proyecto Introducción

• To visualize alternative futures for land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas.

Para visualizar futuros alternativos para el desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas.

• To develop design guidelines for conservation and development in the Monteverde Region over the next few years.

Para desarrollar el diseño de directrices de conservación y desarrollo para la región de Monteverde para los próximos años.

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Project Objectives Introduction Objectivos del Proyecto Introducción


• To develop an understanding of the history of land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas.Para desarrollar una comprensión de la historia del desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas.

• To generate a map of current conditions of the study area using existing resources and group obeservations and measurements Para producir un mapa de las condiciones actuales de parte de la zona a través del uso de los mapas existentes, fotografías aéreas, observaciones desde el suelo y medidas, planos, etc.

• To develop alternative scenarios for Los Llanos & Cañitas -- using history of development and current conditions as the basis for future projections.Para desarrollar escenarios alternativos para Los Llanos & Cañitas -- usando la historia del desarrollo y las condiciones actuales como base para las proyecciones futuras.

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Inventory of Data Introduction Inventario del Proyecto Introducción

• Research and Documentation Patterns of Development & Land-use Investigación y Documentación de los Patrones de Desarrollo

• Historic maps and Interviews with Local Leaders and Organizations about Development History Mapas históricos y entrevistas a líderes locales y organizaciones

• Projections of Structures and Population for 2010 and 2020Proyecciones de estructuras y población para el 2010 y el 2020

• Traffic StudyConteo de tráfico


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Scenarios Developed Introduction

Escenarios Desarrollados Introducción

• Scenario 1: Business as Usual

• Scenario 2: Ecotourism and Conservation

• Scenario 3: Diversification of Economic Base and Community Life


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Project Assumptions IntroductionSuposiciones del Proyecto Introducción

• Continued population growth (migration and natural increase) Crecimiento poblacional continuo (inmigración y crecimiento natural)

• Tourism remains main economic engine of the region El turismo seguirá siendo el motor de la economía regional

• Continued efforts at conservationContinuarán los esfuerzos por la conservación

• Paving of the road and expansion of public transportation systemSe pavimentará el camino y se ampliará el transporte público

• Increasing local government capacitySe incrementará la capacidad de gobierno local


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario




II. Study Area /




VI. Next Steps /

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Community Background Study Area

Presenter: Jane Padelford

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario


Study AreaArea del Estudio

Political Context

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario


Cañitas, Guanacaste

• Cañitas was founded in the 1920’s by Don Rafael Trejos

• Electricity and running water came to Cañitas in 1950. At this time there were two dairy fincas.

• The community raised funds to found the first school in 1967.

• Currently the community is building a community center.


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario


Los Llanos, Puntarenas

• The first developments in Los Llanos began in 1982, when two dairy farms existed.

• The school was founded in 1991, through funds and donations by local residents.

• The Bellbird Conservation Center was founded to protect critical habitat.

• The first tourism, a riding stable, arrived in 2000.

• Many housing developments have been built in the last 4 years, primarily along the main roads.


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Environment Study Area


PURPOSE• To provide a context for physical environment

• To help assess sustainability and conservation in broader context

METHODOLOGY• Cartography

• Interviews

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario



Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Environment


Study Area

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario



Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario




II. Study Area /




VI. Next Steps /

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Outline of Inventory and Analysis

• Demographics and Community Attitudes• Mapping Los Llanos and Cañitas• Traffic Study• Development Patterns


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Demographics and Community Attitudes in the Monteverde Zone

Selective Results from the MVI Household Survey

DemographicsDemográficos

Inventory and Analysis

Inventario y Análisis

Presenter: Kathleen & Marisa

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Purpose• To better understand the social and

economic situation in the Monteverde Zone

• To compare the socio-economic indicators and resident attitudes of Cañitas and Los Llanos with the rest of the region

• To gather information that will help develop accurate scenarios

Presenter: KathleenWilson




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Methodology:• Create summary statistics with selective

variables from the MVI Household Survey– Comparison of means and frequencies by

community.

• About the survey:– Sponsored by the Monteverde Institute – Door-to-door survey from August and September

2002– Open and closed-ended questions– 532 households and 93 tourist businesses surveyed – 74% of respondents were women, 26% men

Presenter: Kathleen Wilson




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Household Size (Persons/Hh)Santa Elena 4.08Los Llanos 4.17Canitas 4.03Total 4.02

Total in Household EmployedSanta Elena 2.01Los Llanos 2.36Canitas 2.11Total 2.07

% Who Live in Zone PermanentlySanta Elena 84.6Los Llanos 96.7Canitas 90.6Total 88.1

% who own their homeSanta Elena 67.4Los Llanos 79.2Canitas 75.8Total 73.3

Basic Household Characteristics





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

% of households with a septic tankSanta Elena 99.5Los Llanos 93.9Canitas 92.3Total 96.8

% with a means of transportationSanta Elena 46.7Los Llanos 54.7Canitas 66.7Total 51.3

Santa Elena 80.9Los Llanos 45.3Canitas 78.8Total 72.8

% responding with a "positive" or "very positive" about tourism

Basic Household Characteristics





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

In Zone Since Birth

Born Outside the Zone

Same Community

Different Community

Santa Elena 27.9 7.7 64.5

Los Llanos 17 28.3 54.7

Cañitas 33.3 9.1 57.6

Total Zone 29.4 14.1 56.7

Residents’ Place of Birth (as a % of the total community)





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Santa Elena

Cerro Plano

Monte Verde Cañitas

Los Llanos Zone

Roads 73 64 67 82 80 66

Health Care 23 23 29 30 13 21

Recreation 19 18 39 24 34 23

Attitudes about Services(% responding “not adequate”)





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Employment in the MV Zone:

• 532 Households in sample• Average Household Size = 4.02• Total Number of People Represented = 2,139

• Average # of Workers per Household = 2.07• Total of Workers Represented = 1,101

• Total Number of Jobs Represented = 1,256• Average Number of Jobs per Worker = 1.14





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario





Artesania

La Familia Vargas

SE ¢ 85,000*

Lechería

MV¢45,000*

SE¢75,000*

Ama de casa

Artesanía*Payment per month

A working family in Monteverde

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

45% work in Los Llanos Monteverde

Cerro Plano

Santa Elena

Los LlanosLos Llanos

CañitasCañitas

14%

7%

26%

15%14%6%

51% work in Cañitas

Other

Other

3%

8%

Where do residents of Cañitas & Los Llanos go to work?





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Next Steps:• Explore additional variables in the survey

– Occupational status

– Income and distribution of wealth in the region

– Year-round versus seasonal work

– Educational attainment and relation to economic opportunity

• Consider how socio-economic indicators may or may not change in the future





Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and AnalysisDibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis

Presenter: Brian Gillette

Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Purpose / Propósito

• To inventory the existing land-use and development patterns in Los Llanos and Cañitas

• To create a GIS data base of existing conditions

• To project future grown based on current trends



Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Methodology:

• Major roads and streams based on aerial and past SF maps

• Structures and secondary roads/driveways based on physical inspection and photography



Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Regional Map Mapa de la Zona




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Focus Map Mapa del foco




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Centers of Community Mapa de los centros del communidad




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Institutions Mapa de los instituciónes




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Commercial Maps

Mapa del comercial Mapas


Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Residential Mapa residencial




Scenario Planning


Plan de Escenario

Summary table Tabla Sumario

Structures by Community

(2001-2003)

Residential Commercial Institutional Other Total

Cañitas 50 5 6 2 63

Los Llanos 178 5 2 2 187

Santa Elena 404 96 21 16 537

Cerro Plano * 141 86 14 2 243

Monteverde 146 48 7 13 214

Total 919 240 50 35 1244

* from 2001 scenario planning report




Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Welcome Bienvenidos Presenter:Stacy...

Documents

Transcript of Scenario Planning Sustainable Futures 2003 Plan de Escenario Welcome Bienvenidos Presenter:Stacy...