Scenario-building as a communication tool

Skryhan Hanna

Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014

The Anthropocene

Source: http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/12/welcome_to_the.php

What will the future bring?

Observations

The problem studying with the future

• We can’t observe it, but …• We know that it’ll be different (probably)• We cannot use traditional scientific methods• We need a set of tools to tackle the unknowns

and uncertainties of the future

The way we address ‘futures‘ in complex systems depends on:

• (a) how well we understand a system‘s complexity / causalities;

• (b) how uncertain we are about future developments of key drivers

Source: Zurek, M., Henrichs, T., 2007. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Scenario

“Scenario (outcome) – a plausible image of the future, based on the qualitative or quantitative interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions, which can be presented as narrative storylines or quantitative figures and maps (models)”

(Metzger et al., 2010)

Scenarios are not predictions!

Scenarios and projections

• Scenarios as tools to– …explore the future, – …assess the effects of future (environmental, social)

change,– …describe drivers of change – social, economic, policy,

technology, governance,– …assess policy options in a context,– …provide a platform for stakeholder discussion,– …deal with uncertainty,– …connect descriptions of the future to the present

through a series of causal links,– …etc.

We can influence the future!

Types of scenarios

Advantages and disadvantages

• Critic of Explanatory scenarios : the constraints of the present are likely to lead to conservative scenarios, in that the progress that could be reached is underestimated and new options are not taken into consideration

Scenario development• Qualitative descriptions of the range and role of different land use change drivers• Quantitative assessments of the total area requirement (quantity) of each land use

type, as a function of changes in the relevant drivers for each scenario• Spatial allocation rules to locate the land use quantities in geographic space across

Europe

Scenario limitations

Development of explanatory scenarios

Define the

problem

Define driving forces

Select scenario

axis

Develop scenarios

Use scenario in policy

Driving forces: ESTEPEnvironmental, Social, Technological,

Economic, Political

Define driving forces

1) Identifying driving forces / impact factors

(for each ESTEP group)

2) Assess of significance and

likelihood of each impact

factor (for each ESTEP group)

3) Distribute impact factors on significance and possibility

(regards to whole problem)

4) Identifying the most

important impact factors

Select scenario

axis

Select scenario

axisDevelop

scenarios

Development of explanatory scenarios

Jazz Symphony

ENERGY SECURITYHigher energy productionGreater trading and diversity of internationalfossil energy suppliers

Wider diversity of energy resource typesHas government-promoted investment in �infrastructure

ENERGY QUITY On average, energy equity progressesbetterMore people are able to afford more energybecause the global market leads to higherGDP growth

Energy equity is less because there areinevitably interventions restrictingGDP growthFunds directed into low-carbon initiativeswould actually start diverting funds fromother government priorities such as healthcare and other programmesFinancial resources are not limitlessGovernments have to set spendingprioritiesWise choice of policies as identified in theWEC World Energy Trilemma Report couldavoid this drop, as countries strive to scorewell on the WEC’s trilemma indexDevelop

scenarios

Jazz Symphony

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITYEmissions don’t drop until after 2040Performance improves markedly if a bottom up carbon market develops early in thescenario, but the higher GDP growth stillmeans higher emissions Puts more emphasis on adaptation

Scores well on environmental impactmitigation particularly CO2 emission reduction,with emissions dropping after 2020Externalities are more effectively internalised:this is primarily because countries adopt arange of mechanisms to meet treatyobligations on CO2Higher carbon prices would achieve higheremission reductionThe market instrument emission trading isassumed as the leading mechanism formeeting CO2 emission obligations in thesecond part of the scenario period

Develop scenarios

Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in

KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034

• Step 1-2: Work in small groups – 30 min– Step 1. Identifying driving forces / impact factors influencing in

present and future – Step 2. Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact factor

(for each ESTEP group). Fill in the tables

• Step 3. Distribution of driving forces for whole problems – 15 min – Distribute impact factors– Choose the most important factors

• Step 4. Choosing and naming of scenario axis – 15 min• Step 5. Discussion and naming of scenarios – 15 min

High importance

Low importance

Low influencing High influencing

Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in

KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034