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Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide

Multimodal Transportation PoliciesProgress Report to the VTrans2035 Advisory

CommitteeBy James H. Lambert

with Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J. Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H. Lambert

May 15, 2008

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Acknowledgments

Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office

VTrans2035 Virginia Department of Transportation Virginia Transportation Research Council

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Summary

Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation

planners Developed a scenario-based analysis of regional

multimodal transportation impacts Designed an Excel workbook to apply scenario-

based planning approach to regions of the Commonwealth

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Presentation Outline

Introduction and motivation Problem definition Project background Technical approach overview Demonstrate workbook Conclusions and future work

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Motivation Virginia’s diverse transportation system

• More than 60,000 miles of roadway• 67 public-use airports• 4 state-operated port terminals• Over 40 fixed route transit systems• Extensive freight and passenger rail

Scenario-based planning is essential for planning on a thirty-year horizon

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VTrans2035 “…policy framework for an

integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”

Modal agencies• DOAV• VDRPT• VDOT• DMV• VPA

Pierce R. HomerSecretary of Transportation

VTrans2035 Advisory Committee

Heads of Modal Agencies

Analysis support for scenario-based planning

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Problem Definition

Characterize the regional impacts of statewide multimodal transportation policies

Develop a survey for seeking consensus and differences of transportation planners

Begin to explore region by region across the Commonwealth

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Regional Planning Organizations

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Timeline September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,

Virginia December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper

competition February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary

Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis

February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee

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Project Website

www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2

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Scenario-Based Planning

Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies

Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration

Several different approaches for methodology

Source: FHWA, various sources

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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economic Demographic

• Number of households, in/out-migration Other

• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters

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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates

• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation

Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion

Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas

Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east

Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Economic Scenarios Regional economy strengthens

• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues

Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles

Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases

Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run

Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Demographic Scenarios

In-migration increases• Total population increases, decreased use of

auto

Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto

More households• Increased household growth to balance

forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized

• Use of public transit, bike, etc.

Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized

Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future

• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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Scenario-Based Planning (cont.)

Identify key regional issues Identify key factors for issues Combine key factors and issues to make

future scenarios Explore scenarios with a variety of

stakeholders

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Stages of the Analysis

Select Regions Select Scenarios

Score PoliciesBased

on EvaluationCriteria

Weigh EvaluationCriteria withScenarios

Assess PolicyPerformance

Sensitivity to Region

Discuss andCombine

Issues andFactors

ID Key Factors ID Key Issues

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Transportation Policies

Twenty-one policies of VTrans2035 and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning

Sample of policies• P.4 – Fund rail• P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling• P.24 – Going green (specific to region)• P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific

to region)

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Scenarios

Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.

Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study• S.2 – Sprawl accelerates• S.17 – Retirement• S.18 – Natural disaster• S.3 – IT amenities grow• S.19 – Decrease in air quality

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Transportation Criteria (“Goals”)

Six high level criteria with 34 sub-criteria High level goals:

• C.1 – Safety and Security• C.2 – Preservation and Management• C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People• C.4 – Economic Vitality• C.5 – Quality of Life• C.6 – Program Delivery

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Workbook - Introduction

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Workbook – Policy Definitions

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Workbook – Policy Ratings

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Workbook – Scenario Definitions

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Workbook – Criteria Weighting

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Workbook – Policy Comparison

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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

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Summary of Progress

Explored scenario-based planning approach to analyze impacts of regional multimodal transportation policies

Integrated policies, scenarios, and evaluation criteria in an Excel workbook

Characterized regional impacts for multimodal transportation policies

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Future Work

Survey MPOs to to find what scenarios are used in long-range planning

Customize workbook for survey of regional organizations

Implement a telephone survey to gather input to the workbook

Collate the results in support of VTrans2035

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RVAMPO Student Paper Award

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RVAMPO Award (cont.)

In Roanoke with Competition Sponsor Receiving Best Student Paper Award

Team with UVa Engineering Dean James Aylor and Department of Systems and Information Engineering Chair, Prof. Don Brown