SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING€¦ · The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each...
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DISTRICT Mallee Wimmera South West Northern Country North Central Central North East West & South Gippsland East Gippsland SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300 Wind change Highlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35. Continuous Haines Indicates when convection may play an important role in fire behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 . Lightning Highlights occasions when thunder- storms are possible. Forecast confidence Subjective measure of weather and fire danger forecast confidence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the confidence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria). Symbol interpretation This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April. Wind change timing The map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day. Weather & Total Fire Ban districts Precipitation District wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (affecting KBDI). The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the official FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days five to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models. Official FDR forecast at time of issue Unofficial FDR forecast Wimmera Mallee Northern Country North Central North East South West Central W & S Gippsland East Gippsland SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH) LOW-MODERATE (L-M) HIGH (H) EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR) Fire Danger Rating Prepared 5pm Sunday 17 January 2016 Summary of global weather model guidance Monday a weak high in southern Tasman and trough in SW Victoria, wind change moves eastward and northward from trough Monday. Another wind change emanating from SW trough moves eastwards across Victoria later Tuesday and into Wednesday, weakening. Models then leave Victoria in a broad trough area Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture coming in from the NW. Trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west Friday. Main high stays to the west of Victoria over next weekend with a weak ridge across Victoria. Weather drivers of fire danger Hot and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday ahead of an initial Monday change in the SW and southern central parts of the state which will stall and likely retrogress to the SW coast, before crossing most of the state later Tuesday, causing the next peak in FDIs, VH to Sev (near Extreme in SW Tuesday) Monday and Tuesday. Elevated cHaines overnight Monday in the west and overnight Tuesday in the northeast. NW winds will be fresher in the south than the north with the wind changes both on Monday and Tuesday, also gusty SSW’lies behind the change in the south. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards will reduce FDIs. Precipitation and lightning Clear until Tuesday. Increasing moisture from Wednesday onwards through to Friday will increase potential for showers and wet thunderstorms, at this stage difficult to identify where the main focus of activity will be. Current thinking is Wednesday just isolated showers over much of Victoria, chance of wet thunderstorms mainly in the north, higher chance of showers and wet thunder- storms in the north Thursday, north and east Friday. Conditions clearing quickly next weekend. Monday Monday 18 Jan H VH VH VH VH S H VH H Tuesday 19 Jan VH S S VH S S VH S VH Wednesday 20 Jan H H H VH VH H H H VH Thursday 21 Jan L-M L-M H L-M H H L-M H H Friday 22 Jan L-M L-M L-M H H H H H H Saturday 23 Jan L-M H H H VH H H H H Sunday 24 Jan L-M L-M H H H H H H H 11pm 5pm 11am Document 369
Transcript of SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING€¦ · The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each...
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 5pm Sunday 17 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidance Monday a weak high in southern Tasman and trough in SW Victoria, wind change moves eastward and northward from trough Monday. Another wind change emanating from SW trough moves eastwards across Victoria later Tuesday and into Wednesday, weakening. Models then leave Victoria in a broad trough area Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture coming in from the NW. Trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west Friday. Main high stays to the west of Victoria over next weekend with a weak ridge across Victoria.Weather drivers of �re dangerHot and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday ahead of an initial Monday change in the SW and southern central parts of the state which will stall and likely retrogress to the SW coast, before crossing most of the state later Tuesday, causing the next peak in FDIs, VH to Sev (near Extreme in SW Tuesday) Monday and Tuesday. Elevated cHaines overnight Monday in the west and overnight Tuesday in the northeast. NW winds will be fresher in the south than the north with the wind changes both on Monday and Tuesday, also gusty SSW’lies behind the change in the south. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards will reduce FDIs.Precipitation and lightning Clear until Tuesday. Increasing moisture from Wednesday onwards through to Friday will increase potential for showers and wet thunderstorms, at this stage di�cult to identify where the main focus of activity will be. Current thinking is Wednesday just isolated showers over much of Victoria, chance of wet thunderstorms mainly in the north, higher chance of showers and wet thunder-storms in the north Thursday, north and east Friday. Conditions clearing quickly next weekend.
Monday
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday18 Jan
H
VH
VH
VH
VH
S
H
VH
H
L-M
S
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday19 Jan
VH
S
S
VH
S
S
VH
S
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
H
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
11pm5pm11am
Document 369
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 10am Monday 18 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA shallow trough and associated wind change currently over the far southwest is predicted to move inland this afternoon. The trough is expected to weaken overnight then cross Victoria during Tuesday and into Wednesday. Model guidance suggests a broad trough will reside across the State on Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture coming in from the northwest. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays over the Southern Ocean next weekend with a weak ridge across Tasmania.Weather drivers of �re dangerHot and dry today ahead of an initial change in the southwest that pushes inland this afternoon and evening before weakening and retrogresses back toward the coast. FDIs peaking on Tuesday as conditions remain hot and dry with stronger northwesterly winds across much of the State ahead of a freshening south to southwest wind change. Di�cult to get max temp forecasts right in the south on Tuesday due to onset of wind change. Elevated cHaines overnight Monday in the west and overnight Tuesday in the northeast. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot inland on Wednesday with warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday, with the airmass starting to dry out again over the weekend. Precipitation and lightning Clear until Tuesday. Increasing moisture from Wednesday onwards through to Friday will increase potential for showers and wet thunderstorms; di�cult to identify where the main focus of activity will be. Wednesday just isolated showers over much of Victoria, chance of wet thunderstorms mainly in the north, higher chance of showers and wet thunderstorms more broadly across the State on Thursday and Friday. Conditions tending to stabilise over the weekend.
Monday
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday18 Jan
H
VH
VH
VH
VH
S
H
VH
H
L-M
S
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday19 Jan
VH
S
S
VH
S
S
VH
S
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
H
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
11pm5pm11am
Document 370
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 11am Monday 18 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA shallow trough and associated wind change currently over the far southwest is predicted to move inland this afternoon. The trough is expected to weaken overnight then cross Victoria during Tuesday and into Wednesday. Model guidance suggests a broad trough will reside across the State on Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture coming in from the northwest. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays over the Southern Ocean next weekend with a weak ridge across Tasmania.Weather drivers of �re dangerHot and dry today ahead of an initial change in the southwest that pushes inland this afternoon and evening before weakening and retrogresses back toward the coast. FDIs peaking on Tuesday as conditions remain hot and dry with stronger northwesterly winds across much of the State ahead of a freshening south to southwest wind change. Di�cult to get max temp forecasts right in the south on Tuesday due to onset of wind change. Elevated cHaines overnight Monday in the west and overnight Tuesday in the northeast. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot inland on Wednesday with warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday, with the airmass starting to dry out again over the weekend. Precipitation and lightning Clear until Tuesday. Increasing moisture from Wednesday onwards through to Friday will increase potential for showers and wet thunderstorms; di�cult to identify where the main focus of activity will be. Wednesday just isolated showers over much of Victoria, chance of wet thunderstorms mainly in the north, higher chance of showers and wet thunderstorms more broadly across the State on Thursday and Friday. Conditions tending to stabilise over the weekend.
Monday
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday18 Jan
H
VH
VH
VH
VH
S
H
VH
H
L-M
S
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday19 Jan
VH
S
S
VH
S
S
VH
S
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
H
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
11pm5pm11am
Document 371
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 5pm Monday 18 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA shallow trough and associated wind change currently over the far southwest is predicted to move inland this afternoon. The trough is expected to weaken overnight then cross Victoria during Tuesday and into Wednesday. Model guidance suggests a broad trough will reside across the State on Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture coming in from the northwest. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays over the Southern Ocean next weekend with a weak ridge across Bass Strait that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania.Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm, dry night, particularly inland and at higher elevations. A south to southwest wind change weakening tonight and retrogressing toward the coast by Tuesday morning. FDIs peaking on Tuesday due to another hot, dry day with stronger west to northwest winds across much of the State ahead of a complex south to southwest wind change that will become fresh and gusty as the afernoon unfolds. Elevated cHaines Monday night into Tuesday. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot inland on Wednesday with warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. The airmass starts to dry out again over the weekend. Precipitation and lightning Dry change Tuesday; although showers to follow later over the southwest. Increasing moisture from Wednesday through to Friday increasing the potential for showers and wet thunderstorms. Wednesday just isolated showers over much of Victoria, chance of wet thunderstorms mainly in the north. Higher probability of showers and wet thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Conditions tending to stabilise over the weekend.
Tuesday
L-M
S
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday19 Jan
VH
VH
S
VH
S
S
S
S
S
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
VH
H
H
vH
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
5pm11am
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
H
11pm
Document 372
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 10am Tuesday 19 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA shallow trough resides across southern Victoria, although it is di�cult to de�ne this morning. The trough is expected gather momentum and move inland this afternoon and evening. The tail end of a cold front is expected to clip southern Victoria on Wednesday while a broad inland trough continues to reside over northern Victoria through until Friday. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters next weekend with a weak ridge across Bass Strait that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania.Weather drivers of �re dangerFDIs peaking today due to hot, dry conditions with freshening west to northwest winds across much of the State [just waiting for the low level inversion to erode] ahead of a complex south to southwest wind change that will become fresh and gusty as the afternoon unfolds. Elevated cHaines Tuesday, contracting to the northeast overnight. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot inland on Wednesday with warm and humid condi-tions on Thursday and Friday. The airmass starts to dry out again inland over the weekend. Precipitation and lightning Dry change Tuesday; although showers to follow later over the southwest and possibly tending to rain over the southwest overnight. On Wednesday, showers extending inland and eastwards and tending to become isolated; although there is a chance of wet thunderstorms over the northwest. Latest guidance indicates showers and thunderstorms largely con�ned to the northeast on Thurs-day, while Friday is looking more and more likely a wet and humid day with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Conditions tending to stabilise over the weekend.
Tuesday
L-M
S
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday19 Jan
VH
VH
S
VH
S
S
S
S
S
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
VH
H
H
VH
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
H
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
5pm
11am
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
H
11pm
Document 373
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 5pm Tuesday 19 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA shallow trough across southern Victoria is gathering momentum and moving inland this evening. The tail end of a cold front is expected to clip southern Victoria on Wednesday while a broad inland trough continues to reside over northern Victoria through until Friday. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters over the weekend with a weak ridge across Bass Strait that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania. A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea next week may result in the high remaining positioned over the Southern Ocean.Weather drivers of �re dangerWest to northwest winds ahead of a complex south to southwest wind change in the south extending inland this evening before weakening overnight. Increasing moisture Wednesday onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot inland on Wednesday with warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. Mild to warm conditions with southerly air�ow across the weekend, drying out inland on Sunday. Southerly air�ow persisting on Monday and Tuesday.Precipitation and lightning Showers developing over the southwest tonight possibly tending to a period of rain Wednesday morning. Showers extending further inland and eastwards on Wednesday but tending to become isolated; there is a chance of wet thunderstorms over the northwest and eastern ranges. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing once again on Thursday. Model guidance continues to suggest Friday will be wet and humid with rain and embedded thunderstorms clearing to the east Saturday morning. Isolated showers may still be present in the south and east Sunday to Tuesday.
Tuesday
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
VH
H
H
VH
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
5pm
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
11pm
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday26 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Document 374
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 9am Wednesday 20 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceThe tail end of a cold front is expected to clip southern Victoria on Wednesday while a broad inland trough continues to reside over northern Victoria through until Friday. The trough is then pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters over the weekend with a weak ridge across Bass Strait that may tempo-rarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania. A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea next week may result in the high remaining positioned over the Southern Ocean.Weather drivers of �re dangerIncreasing moisture today onwards likely to reduce FDIs, although remaining hot in the northern half today and Thursday, with warm and increasingly humid conditions Friday. Mild to warm conditions with southerly air�ow across the weekend, drying out inland in the west Saturday and Sunday. Southerly air�ow persisting on Monday and Tuesday.Precipitation and lightning Rain contracting to southern Gippsland today and clearing. Isolated showers elsewhere; there is a slight chance of wet thunderstorms over the northwest and eastern ranges, low rainfall totals expected today except possibly in south Gippsland and thunderstorms. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late in the west on Thursday but low rainfall totals expected. Model guidance continues to suggest Friday will be wet and humid with rain and embedded thunder-storms clearing to the east Saturday, potentially widespread totals 10-25mm. Isolated showers may still be present in the south and and possible afternoon wet thunderstorms Sunday to Tuesday with some models increasing rainfall totals in the east Monday, Tuesday.
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday20 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
VH
H
H
H
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday26 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
Document 375
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 5pm Wednesday 20 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA broad inland trough will reside over northern Victoria through until Friday. The trough will deepen and then get pushed east by an approaching ridge from the west on Friday. However, the main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters over the weekend with a weak ridge across Tasmania that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania. The main high ridges east well to the south of Tasmania leaving Victoria in an east to southeasterly wind regime next week.Weather drivers of �re dangerRemaining hot in the northern half of the state Thursday, especially in the northeast, moderate afternoon westerly winds will increase FDIs in the north. Warm and increasingly humid conditions Friday with a wind shift from light to moderate NW to SW winds moving across the state during the afternoon. Wet thunderstorms likely near the change. Mild to warm conditions with southerly air�ow across the weekend, drying out inland in the west Saturday and Sunday. Mild southerly air�ow persisting persisting next week, dryer in the west.Precipitation and lightning Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late in the west on Thursday but low rainfall totals expected. Model guidance continues to suggest Friday will be wet and humid with an initial early rainband clearing east followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms on and east of the wind change, potential for heavy rain leading to �ash �ooding with thunderstorms. Rain and embedded thunderstorms clearing to the east Saturday, potentially widespread totals 10-30mm Friday with isolated totals to 80mm in thunderstorms. Isolated showers or drizzle may still be present in the south and and possible afternoon wet thunderstorms about the NE ranges Sunday to Tuesday.
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
H
H
H
VH
VH
H
VH
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday26 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday27 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
H
H
Document 376
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 9am Thursday 21 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceA broad inland trough resides over Victoria today. The trough will deepen Friday over Victoria and develop into a low o� the SE NSW coast overnight Friday as a ridge approaches Victoria from the west. The main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters over the weekend with a weak ridge across Tasmania that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania. Next week the main high ridges east well to the south of Tasmania leaving Victoria in a broad trough again in an southeast to southerly wind regime next week.Weather drivers of �re dangerRemaining hot in the northern half today keeping FDRs in the VH range. Warm and increasingly humid conditions Friday with a wind shift from light to moderate NW to SW winds moving across the state during the afternoon. Wet thunderstorms likely near the change. Mild to warm conditions with southerly air�ow across the weekend, drying out inland in the west Saturday and Sunday. Mild southerly air�ow persisting persisting next week, dryer in the west. No spike days in the outlook period.Precipitation and lightning Model guidance continues to suggest Friday will be wet and humid with an initial early rainband clearing east followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms on and east of the wind change, potential for heavy rain leading to �ash �ooding with thunderstorms. Rain and embedded thun-derstorms clearing to the east Saturday, potentially widespread totals 10-30mm Friday with isolated totals to 80mm in thunderstorms. Isolated showers or drizzle may still be present in the south and and possible afternoon wet thunderstorms about the NE ranges Sunday to Wednesday.
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday21 Jan
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
VH
H
VH
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
L-M
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday26 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday27 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
L-M
H
H
H
Document 377
DISTRICT
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC FIRE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22300
Wind changeHighlights a change in wind direction associated with a trough or cold front on days when the FDI ≥ 35.
Continuous HainesIndicates when convection may play an important role in �re behaviour; aligned with cHaines ≥ 10 .
LightningHighlights occasions when thunder-storms are possible.
Forecast con�denceSubjective measure of weather and �re danger forecast con�dence. The higher the horizontal bar the greater the con�dence (based on variation in weather model guidance for Victoria).
Symbol interpretation
This weather briefing package is prepared by the meteorologist at the Victorian State Control Centre to assist fire and emergency agencies with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission. This product is typically updated at 1000 and 1700 hours each day between November and April.
Wind change timingThe map of Victoria above will be annotated with the estimated location of a forecast wind change for the current (or following) day.
Weather & Total Fire Bandistricts
PrecipitationDistrict wide forecast rainfall totals of 5mm or more (a�ecting KBDI).
The forecast Fire Danger Rating (FDR) for each weather district is presented in the table above for the next seven days. Note that the o�cial FDR is only calculated out to four days, while the FDRs for days �ve to seven are based on the latest available guidance from global weather models.
O�cial FDR forecast at time of issue Uno�cial FDR forecast
Wimmera
Mallee
Northern Country
North Central
North East
South West
Central
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
SEVERE (S) VERY HIGH (VH)
LOW-MODERATE (L-M)HIGH (H)
EXTREME (E) CODE RED (CR)
Fire Danger Rating
Prepared 5pm Thursday 21 January 2016
Summary of global weather model guidanceThe trough over Victoria will deepen Friday and develop into a low o� the SE NSW coast overnight as a ridge approaches Victoria from the west. The main high pressure system stays south of Bight waters over the weekend with a weak ridge across Tasmania that may temporarily erode on Sunday as a cold front clips Tasmania. Next week the main high ridges east well to the south of Tasmania leaving Victoria in a broad trough again in an southerly wind regime. Models diverging Wednesday onwards as to the development of an approaching trough from the west.Weather drivers of �re dangerWarm and increasingly humid conditions Friday with a wind shift from light to moderate NW to SW winds moving across the state during the afternoon. Wet thunderstorms likely near the change. Mild to warm conditions with southerly air�ow across the weekend, drying out inland in the west Saturday and Sunday. Mild southerly air�ow persisting persisting next week, dryer in the north, very slow increase in temperatures to mid 30s in the north and high 20s in the south by Wednes-day. No spike days in the outlook period.Precipitation and lightning Model guidance continues to suggest Friday will be wet and humid with an initial early rainband with embedded thunderstorms, clearing east followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms on and east of the wind change, potential for heavy rain leading to �ash �ooding with thunder-storms. Rain and embedded thunderstorms clearing to the east Saturday, potentially widespread totals 10-30mm Friday with isolated totals to 80mm in thunderstorms. Isolated showers or drizzle may still be present in the south and and possible afternoon wet thunderstorms about the NE ranges Sunday to Wednesday.
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Friday22 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Saturday23 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Sunday24 Jan
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Monday25 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
L-M
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Tuesday26 Jan
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Wednesday27 Jan
L-M
H
H
VH
H
H
H
H
H
L-M
L-M
L-M
H
H
H
H
H
H
Thursday28 Jan
L-M
H
H
VH
VH
H
H
L-M
L-M
11pm
11am 5pmFriday
Document 378
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• Isolated showers will clear the far east of the state on Wednesday, with a very slight risk early morningthunderstorm activity.
• Stable conditions for the remainder of the week, as a weak inland trough remains over the north of thestate, cradled by a high pressure ridge in the south. Light winds and hot and dry conditions inland.
• Very hot and dry conditions on Saturday, with freshening northerly winds.
• A trough is forecast to cross the State on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected throughout alldistricts. Wind will tend fresh and gusty northerly ahead of the change, fresh southerly behind the change.
• Further clarification of the weather to occur on Sunday will be available as we get to the end of the week.
Issued Tuesday 15 December 2015
Document 379
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A high pressure ridge located over the Tasman Sea is directing northerly winds across the state, with anamplifying frontal system over the Bight approaching western Victoria, forecast to cross the State during Sunday.• Conditions with be hot, dry and gusty on Saturday, and similarly on Sunday, with winds freshening as thefront approaches. Northerly winds will increase ahead of the change, with a risk of severe wind gusts increasing on Sunday. • Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and with the change, and showers and rain are forecast tocontinue across the State on Sunday in the wake of the front. Rainfall totals are expected to remain less than 10mm across the State, with the possibility of heavier falls to 20mm with thunderstorms.• Showers will continue on Monday morning across the east, with the risk of remnant storms across theranges. This risk will ease during the day, with the chance of isolated showers with onshore flow across the coast.• Winds tend easterly then northeasterly later in the period, causing instability and showers across the east ofthe state.
Issued Friday 18 December 2015
Document 380
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A high pressure ridge slipping south of Victoria is expected to commence building over the Tasman Sea onThursday and Friday. • Apart from the chance of isolated thunderstorm on the eastern ranges Wednesday afternoon the bulk ofthe weather across Victoria is predicted to be warm and dry on Wednesday and Thursday.• Conditions are likely to become hot and dry on Friday as the airflow tends fresh and gusty northerly aheadof an inland low pressure trough reaching Victoria’s western border late Friday. The trough is likely to be associated with enhanced levels of moisture resulting in showers and thunderstorms.• Weather models indicate that a cold front crossing the Southern Ocean is expected to rapidly catch-up tothe trough Friday night resulting in a much more dynamic weather scenario as the trough and frontal system cross the State early Saturday. There is potential for a rainband to develop ‘in situ’ as the weather system crosses the State early Saturday with locally heavy falls of 20-50mm. The Flood Warning Centre has indicated that rainfall totals of this quantity would not pose a concern for riverine flooding, although localised flash flooding would be a concern, particularly associated with thunderstorm activity.• Northerly winds are likely to increase ahead of the trough locally reaching gale force with gusts to 100 km/hover the Alpine area Saturday morning.• Milder southwesterly airflow with showers following the trough on Saturday and Sunday.
Issued Tuesday 22 December 2015
Document 381
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A frontal system is forecast to cross the State from early Saturday, causing widespread shower andthunderstorm activity, and a rain band to form behind the change.• We are likely to see 10mm of rainfall across the west of the state, and 20-40mm across the central andeastern districts. The bulk of rainfall totals are expected to fall across the central districts from the early morning into the early afternoon, and across the east during the afternoon and early evening. • Isolated totals as high as 60-90mm are possible in areas of heavier showers during Saturday across Alpineareas. We will be further investigating the need for a Severe Weather Warning for Heavy Fall for Saturday.• There is also potential for damaging wind gusts ahead to the change across the Alpine regions and coastalareas, particularly in the east. There is no intention to issue flood watches at this stage.• Please refer to daily Thunderstorm Forecast Charts for potential of severe weather with the thunderstormsforecast on Saturday.• Conditions will stabilise with the next high pressure centred over Bight waters forecast to extend a ridgeacross Victoria from Sunday to Monday, with an inland trough strengthening during Wednesday. Winds will remain mainly light, and temperatures will begin to increase inland.
• No severe weather is currently forecast past Saturday.
Issued Thursday 24 December 2015
Document 382
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A high pressure system south of Victoria will continue to move and strengthen over the Tasman Sea,producing stable and hot conditions over the state on Wednesday.• Thursday will see the State be under the influence of this high for the majority of the day, with fresh andgusty northerly winds expected, particularly about the south and west of the State. • A southerly wind change in the southwest is expected Thursday afternoon. Whilst the official forecast doesnot have shower or storm activity forecast on this change, there is a very slight risk that we may see conditionsfor afternoon storm activity. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart for the most up to date forecasts.• The southerly change will further penetrate inland during Friday, and a risk of thunderstorms are forecastalong the ranges throughout the state. At this state there is no severity forecast with these storms, but pleaserefer to the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart.• The weekend will see winds become fresh east to southeasterly, as the next ridge pushes in from the southof the State. This will produce further instability, with an inland trough linked to a Tropical Low also enhancing moisture inland. The thunderstorm and shower potential increases about the State for the weekend, with the chance of storms also producing flash flooding. • This product will be reissued on Friday, and along with the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart will provide themost up to date forecasts for the weekend.
Issued Tuesday 29 December 2015
Document 383
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A low pressure trough and associated southerly wind change developing over southwest Victoria Thursdayafternoon is predicted to extend further inland during Friday. The trough is likely to contribute to instability overthe eastern ranges triggering thunderstorms Friday afternoon.• Warm conditions continue across the weekend with humidity increasing. Showers extending to mostdistricts on Saturday with a focus for thunderstorm activity still likely to be about the eastern ranges. OnSunday, instability increases more broadly across the State in a moist southeasterly airflow. Given theincrease in humidity there would be a risk that some thunderstorm activity could deliver locally heavy rainfall.• An upper trough will contribute to instability on Monday and Tuesday, increasing the prospect ofthunderstorm activity. Currently, it remains difficult to access the risk that thunderstorms will result in severeweather this far in advance.• The latest analysis of severe thunderstorm risk is best assessed each day by referring to the daily issuedThunderstorm Chart.
Issued Thursday 31 December 2015
Document 384
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• Unstable conditions continue into Wednesday with showers forecast across southern and eastern Victoriaand thunderstorm activity contracting to the northeast of the State. The humid southeasterly airflow incombination with light upper winds would suggest that localised heavy rainfall would be a possibility.• An ‘East Coast Low’ [ECL] is predicted to develop on Wednesday offshore from the northern NSW coastprior to tracking southeastwards across the Tasman Sea toward New Zealand on Thursday. The ECL is notexpected to have an impact on Victoria’s weather in any meaningful way.• Weather conditions tend to stabilise across Victoria from Thursday to Saturday as we head into the nextheating and drying cycle.• The latest model guidance suggests that Sunday is predicted to be hot and dry with moderatenorthwesterly winds ahead of a southwesterly wind change extending from the southwest. The change is likely to be dry and shallow. Lighter winds in the east of the State with coastal seabreezes.• Early indications are that the start of next week will remain warm to hot with light winds and coastalseabreezes.
Issued Tuesday 5 January 2015
Document 385
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A high pressure system is predicted to move just south of Victoria on Saturday before building over theTasman Sea on Sunday. This pattern will result in generally settled weather across the weekend, althoughconditions are forecast to become warm to hot across the State.• Global weather models indicate a shallow low pressure trough may cross Victoria on Monday. Hotconditions with northwesterly winds may be replaced by slightly milder seabreezes near the coast. AlthoughVictoria may be affected by high level cloud there is a risk of thunderstorms on the eastern ranges and in thewest.• A continuation of warm to hot days on Tuesday and Wednesday with another trough crossing the State onWednesday that may be more dynamic with stronger northwesterly airflow. Thunderstorms would beconsidered a risk on Wednesday with the trough, however there remains a high degree of uncertainty in themodelling.• A frontal system over the Southern Ocean then interacts with the trough and potentially monsoonal moistureon Thursday resulting in showers and thunderstorms, which could develop into rain. Modelling of precipitation remains variable, with some guidance indicate falls of 10-30mm over the eastern half of the State. Higher falls on Thursday are a possibility.
Issued Friday 8 January 2015
Document 386
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• A high pressure system will rapidly strengthen over the Tasman Sea of Wednesday, directing strong andgusty northerly winds across the State. An amplifying frontal system crossing the Southern Ocean is likely tocapture a trough over SA moving it into western Victoria during the afternoon on Wednesday. This will befollowed by a cold front late in the evening.• There is a significant thunderstorm risk surrounding the trough as it moves into the west of the State duringWednesday. Storms are likely from mid morning in the west, with a smaller risk over the eastern ranges duringthe morning. As the trough extends throughout the State, so will the thunderstorm potential.• It is likely storms will be severe, with a moderate risk of damaging wind gusts in excess of 80km/hr, plussome potential for squally gusts with the wind change around the trough. Please refer to the ThunderstormForecast charts issued daily, to get a more up to date indication of locations of storm potential and severity.• There will remain lingering instability in the eastern half of the State during Thursday, as a rainband alsoforms in the wake of the passing cold front. Rainfall totals of 2-15mm are expected across the state, with the peak totals expected over the eastern ranges, with up to 30mm of rain forecast.• The next high pressure ridge extends across Tasmania from Friday, bringing stable conditions and isolatedcoastal showers for the remainder of the forecast period.
Issued Tuesday 12 January 2016
Document 387
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• Weekend benign conditions over Victoria will be controlled by a high pressure system as it transitions overTasmania into the southern Tasman by Sunday. Temperatures will slowly rise• The start of next week will be hot and dry with a low intensity heat wave currently indicated for centralVictoria. Weak change moving into the south west late, stalling overnight and then moving across the State later on Tuesday.• Forecast from later on Tuesday onwards is uncertain at this stage due possibility of a weak cut off lowdeveloping west. One option if the cut off does not develop is a rainband associated with the windchangemoving across the State late Tuesday and early Wednesday but clearing east later Wednesday with coolersouthwest winds easing. If the cut off low develops then Wednesday and potentially Thursday could bringareas of rain, possibly substantial in some areas, with possible thunderstorms on Wednesday. At this stageconfidence is very low as to which way it will go. Further model runs are needed to confirm which option ismore likely.
Issued Friday 15 January 2016
Document 388
The purpose of the Severe Weather Outlook is to identify severe weather in the form of heavy rain leading to flooding and/or damaging wind gusts associated with low pressure systems. It is not intended to provide guidance on severe thunderstorms, which are best captured by the daily issued Severe Thunderstorm Chart.
The Severe Weather Outlook is prepared Tuesday and Friday mornings based on the latest guidance from several global and local weather models. This information is prepared by the meteorologist in the State Control Centre to assist the State Emergency Service with preparedness and is not to be distributed without permission.
Potential for ‘low-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to minor to moderate flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 80-100 km/hr.
Potential for ‘high-end’ severe weather event associated with rainfall leading to moderate to major flooding and/or damaging wind gusts reaching 110 km/hr+.
Wind event
Rain event (one drop ~ 20-50mm; two drops ~ 50-100mm; three drops ~ 100mm+
Riverine flooding event
Thunderstorms forecast. Check the daily issued Thunderstorm Chart as to whether thunderstorms are likely to be severe.
9
8
7
DISTRICT Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Wimmera
Mallee
South West
Northern Country
North Central
Central
North East
W & S Gippsland
East Gippsland
Alpine Region
Alpine Region above 1200 metres
Mallee
Wimmera
South West
NorthernCountry
North Central
Central
North East
West & SouthGippsland
EastGippsland
SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING IDV22320
Weather Situation• The hot, dry airmass influencing Victoria over recent days is predicted to be replaced by warm and morehumid conditions this week as moisture increases across the State from the continental interior. Note thatthere has been a history of lightning activity over far western South Australia and Western Australia and thisairmass.• The focus for thunderstorm activity on Wednesday will be the Mallee, while on Thursday the focus will shiftmore to northeast Victoria and the eastern ranges of Gippsland. Elevated moisture hints at localised flashflooding with thunderstorms; check the daily issued Thunderstorm Charts for further details.• Showers and thunderstorms could tend to widespread rain on Friday. The moisture profile of theatmosphere is quite high suggesting flash flooding would be more of a concern, particularly with anythunderstorm activity. Too early to identify specific areas of the State that would be a greater risk of flashflooding. Current rainfall guidance indicates falls of 5-15mm with localised falls of 30mm+.• A high pressure ridge attempts to establish itself across Bass Strait on Saturday with shower activity tendingto contract to the northeast by the afternoon. • Isolated showers are a chance of redeveloping again Sunday morning as a cold front passes to the south.
Issued Tuesday 19 January 2015
Document 389
