Future Food Systems: Policies and programs to assure food for

the poorest under climate change

Carlo Scaramella, WFP Climate Change, Environment and DRR Coordinator

2nd Global conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change Hanoi, Vietnam – 4 September, 2012

1. Food insecurity: the most vulnerable in a changing risk environment

2. Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity and poverty

3. Breaking the cycle: supporting vulnerable HHs achieve FNS and resilience

4. Can CSA work in the context of food insecurity?

5. Conclusions

Outline

1. Food insecurity: the most vulnerable

WFP supported over 100 million people

in over 80 countries

Most undernourished people – 75% – are farmers and pastoralists

They live in poor, marginal and degraded rural areas

They struggle to make a living on less than 1 hectare or work on other people’s fields

Often unable to produce more than 70% of food and nutrition requirements

One billion hungry people

WFP’s assists 100 million people “the bottom of the bottom billion”

Food insecurity: the most vulnerable

A changing risk environment

Resource scarcity and degradation (land, water, food, energy, biodiversity)

Climate change, a hunger risk multiplier

Food price volatility

Intensifying disasters trends

Governance challenges, migration, conflict

Equity, poverty, development challenges

Inter-dependency and complexity of risk drivers

Disaster and extreme weather trends

Droughts

Floods

Storms

Price volatility 9 billion people by 2050

50-70% more food needed

Decreasing stocks and increasing demand

Intensifying hunger risks

1 billion hungry people at present

Towards an expanding food security challenge

People who are or may be or become vulnerable to future risks

Climate impact

Resource scarcity and degradation Food price volatility

Disasters Population growth

Conflict …

... leading to changing scenarios of food insecurity, ie, massive urbanization, further depletion of resources, new governance challenges, conflict...

2. Back to the basics: vulnerable livelihoods’ food access

Household food access

Food aid and barter

Gathering Hunting

Own production (food or cash crop, livestock, fish farm)

Food purchases

Investments in productive

assets, inputs and technologies

Sales Cash income

Other essential non-food

expenditures (clothes, health,

education)

Non-agricultural production Trading Employment Cash

receipts Debts

incurred

Livelihoods and food needs met

Seasonal/transitional food shortages

Household Food Availability

Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity and poverty

No shortages in a good year, but little margin

Livelihoods and food needs m

et

Major drought/shock has immediate and long term impacts

on household livelihoods

Drought Household Food

Availability

Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity and poverty (cont.)

Livelihoods and food needs m

et

Household Food Availability

Reducing quality or quantity of meals

Children drop out of school

Exacerbated land degradation

Sale or loss of assets and

negative coping

Vulnerable livelihoods’ cycle of food insecurity and poverty (cont.)

3. Breaking the cycle: supporting vulnerable HHs achieve FNS and resilience

Livelihoods and food needs m

et

ensuring sufficient food availability through own production and functioning markets

supporting local and national resilience building strategies helping vulnerable people enhance their food and nutrition security

protecting people from seasonal shortages and disasters ensuring access to nutritious food

Household Food Availability

Drought

4. Can CSA work in the context of food insecurity?

Food security & resilience

CSA

safety nets

risk management

insurance

social services

empower-ment

market access

…

Yes, as part of a broader approach to food systems and FNS

Context A Context B Most vulnerable and food insecure areas

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CSA approaches must be context sensitive...

CSA can add value when it supports measures that address basic FNS needs: Asset creation for livelihoods enhancement and

resilience

Affordable technologies, including ecosystem/landscape management/NRM, agro-forestry

DRM enhancement, including innovative risk transfer

Productive safety nets (for protection and incentives)

Enhanced access to land and markets

Strengthen local food systems and economies

WFP’s experience

• FNS security, livelihoods and vulnerability focus

• Emergencies, transitions, development

• Linking Risk Management, resilience and adaptation (assets, resources and capacities)

• Productive safety nets

• NRM, land rehabilitation and reclamation (e.g. Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, Uganda, Niger…)

• Gender focus • Linking farmers to markets:

Purchase for Progress (P4P) and Home-grown school feeding

Innovative risk transfer and insurance: HARITA/ R4:

“weather-insurance-for-work” LEAP:

“climate-proofing” Ethiopia’s PSNP

WFP’s experience

In vulnerable areas “CSA-type” approaches must be framed as part of broader FNS policy efforts that: Are people centered, community based and

supporting local resilience strategies

Address drivers of vulnerability, risk and food and nutrition insecurity

Empower communities and provide opportunities for the most vulnerable and at risk

Improve governance and enable action locally and at scale

Foster sustainable development

5. Conclusion

Thank you.