SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI · HPC 2017 vs. 2016 2016 2017 $34.8 B $35.4 B Servers, up...
Transcript of SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI · HPC 2017 vs. 2016 2016 2017 $34.8 B $35.4 B Servers, up...
SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI
Addison SnellChristopher Willard, Ph.D.
Laura Segervall
HPC Market for 2017• Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage,
software, etc.) reached $35.4 billion in 2017, up 1.6% from 2016
• Demand-side indicators were up; supply-side indicators were down. What happened?– Large increase in spending on power and cooling in commercial
sites (over half of market); masked by moving out-of-budget– Cloud had a breakout year– Storage was weak relative to server spending (GPUs)– Some vendors did well in HPC, poorly in other enterprise servers– The software and services categories both declined
Data cited from multiple forecast and survey reports. Inquire with Intersect360 Research, [email protected].
HPC 2017 vs. 2016
2016 2017
$35.4 B$34.8 B
Servers, up >7%
Storage, up <3%
Networks,Software, and
Servicesall declined
Cloud, up 44%!Other Other$1.1B
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services
HPC Cloud 2017 vs. 2016
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2016 2017
Other
Infrastructurehosting(IaaS,PaaS)
Applicationhosting(SaaS)
Storage
Rawcycles
($000) All cloud categories grew
Raw cycles grew only along with overall market for compute
SaaS
up 125%!
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories
HPC Forecast: Products and Services
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
OtherCloudNetworksSoftwareServicesStorageServers
($000)
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and Services
Budget outlooks have improved, especially in government sectorHPC User Budget Map: Budget Outlooks
Fundamental Drivers• Drivers for HPC:
– There is always more science to do– There are always harder problems to solve– Most HPC usage is commercial– Plus: AI!
• Drivers for HPC in Cloud:– Suitable to variable workloads– Availability of high-performance components– Maturation of licensing models– Plus: AI!
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Products and ServicesReport: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Cloud Categories
HPC Server Classes
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2016 2017
Supercomputers (> $1.5M)
High-End ($250K to $1.5M)Midrange ($50K to $250K)
Entry Level (< $50K)
Highest growth
Lowest growth
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: HPC Server Class
Academic/Not-for-profit:
Nationalsecurity
Nationalresearch lab
Nationalagency
Stateorlocalgovernment
FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumerproductmanufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial
HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical
Academic,17.7%
Government,25.7%
Commercial, 56.6%
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets
Academic/Not-for-profit:
Nationalsecurity
Nationalresearch lab
Nationalagency
Stateorlocalgovernment
FinancialServicesLargeproductmanufacturing
Bio-sciences
Energy
Consumerproductmanufacturing
Retail
Chemical
Electronics
Media&Entertainment Transportation Othercommercial
HPC 2017 Revenue by Vertical
Academic,17.7%
Government,25.7%
Commercial, 56.6%
HPC Server Shares, 2017
HPE
DellLenovo
IBMAtos/Bull
CrayInspur
Fujitsu HuaweiPenguin
OthersGrew faster than market
Grew along with market
Grew slower than market
Declined
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Server Revenue Shares
Site Census Survey: Top Named System Suppliers
AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 1.5%
Dell EMC
NetApp
HPEIBM
HDSDDN
Atos/BullPanasas
Fujitsu
Others
HPC Storage Shares, 2017
Grew faster than market
Grew along with market
Grew slower than market
Declined
Report: Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model: HPC Storage Revenue Shares
Site Census Survey:Top Named Storage Suppliers
AWS is the top named cloud vendor, 4.4%
System Interconnectsby Year Last Modified
• By year last modified, InfiniBand continues to be the most frequently installed system interconnect. Ethernet 10G or faster and Omni-Path installations are growing faster than InfiniBand installations.
• For the highest performance system interconnects, Omni-Path captured some of the Ethernet 100G business.
• Up to two unique system interconnects were allowed per system. The same interconnect type is only counted once per system.
The Highest Performance System Interconnect Types
System Interconnect Types, Total Sites
Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers
• In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox being the only top supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were not included in total.
• Compared to 2017 Total Sites share of mentions:• Mellanox gained 1% share for storage networks. In other locales, Mellanox’s
share remained the same as last year.• Cisco Systems gained 2% share for storage network and 1% share for LANs.• Intel gained 3% share in system interconnects for Omni-Path.
Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Network Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers
• Three-fourths of applications reported were Open Source or ISV software (generally-available applications).
• Top applications are primarily used for traditional HPC application –chemistry, fluid dynamics, structural analysis, and weather forecasting.
Top Generally-Available Applications
Hyperscale Market in 2017
• Grew 25% Y/Y to $44B ($35B in 2016)• Consolidating further into Tier 1
– Orgs spending over $1B/year on IT– Nine Tier 1 companies in 2017
• Eight in 2016• One more just missed in 2017
• Market is through its original major expansion, now entering consolidation phase
AI / Deep Learning / Machine Learning• Roughly $4.5 Billion dedicated to machine learning in
2017; >90% comes from Hyperscale
• Within HPC, most advanced use cases are in finance
• We are monitoring spending patterns– Are budgets increasing?– What is the effect on configurations?– On premise versus cloud
• 56% of HPC organizations are running machine learning– Usually with same hardware as HPC
– Often with changes to configuration, particularly with GPUs– Little effect on overall budgets compared to what was planned
– To the extent that it is done as part of an HPC environment, it is already counted in our numbers
Report: Machine Learning’s Impact on HPC
Use of Machine Learning at HPC Sites
A Look Ahead to 2019• Early indicators suggest strong growth
• Processor wars will be fought in software– Critical tests for ARM
– Welcome back, AMD!
• Storage tiers proliferate
• Battle to possess data intensifies
• Acquisition targets:– Cloud managed services for AWS
– Middleware expertise
SC18 Market Update: HPC, Hyperscale, AI
Addison SnellChristopher Willard, Ph.D.
Laura Segervall