Saving the Best for Last Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy by Answering Questions First and...

Saving the Best for LastSaving the Best for LastSaving the Best for LastSaving the Best for Last

Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy byby

Answering Questions First andAnswering Questions First andPlacing Conclusions in Scientific ContextPlacing Conclusions in Scientific Context

Mike PhillipsMike PhillipsGeology ProfessorGeology Professor

Illinois Valley Community CollegeIllinois Valley Community College

Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy byby

Answering Questions First andAnswering Questions First andPlacing Conclusions in Scientific ContextPlacing Conclusions in Scientific Context

Mike PhillipsMike PhillipsGeology ProfessorGeology Professor

Illinois Valley Community CollegeIllinois Valley Community College

Why Do Myths & Why Do Myths & Misrepresentations Persist?Misrepresentations Persist?Why Do Myths & Why Do Myths & Misrepresentations Persist?Misrepresentations Persist?

It is often easier to reject the It is often easier to reject the seemingly complex science rather seemingly complex science rather than accommodate the conclusions.than accommodate the conclusions.

conflict with personal philosophyconflict with personal philosophy misunderstanding of the sciencemisunderstanding of the science disagreement with the implicationsdisagreement with the implications the perceived cost of acceptance the perceived cost of acceptance

outweighs and understood benefitsoutweighs and understood benefits

It is often easier to reject the It is often easier to reject the seemingly complex science rather seemingly complex science rather than accommodate the conclusions.than accommodate the conclusions.

conflict with personal philosophyconflict with personal philosophy misunderstanding of the sciencemisunderstanding of the science disagreement with the implicationsdisagreement with the implications the perceived cost of acceptance the perceived cost of acceptance

outweighs and understood benefitsoutweighs and understood benefits

Barriers to New IdeasBarriers to New IdeasBarriers to New IdeasBarriers to New Ideas

“…“…information consistent with a preferred information consistent with a preferred conclusion is examined less critically conclusion is examined less critically than information inconsistent with a than information inconsistent with a preferred conclusion, and consequently, preferred conclusion, and consequently, less information is required to reach the less information is required to reach the former than the latter.”former than the latter.”

Ditto & Lopez, 1992, Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Ditto & Lopez, 1992, Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions, Journal of Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions, Journal of

Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 4, 568-584Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 4, 568-584

“…“…information consistent with a preferred information consistent with a preferred conclusion is examined less critically conclusion is examined less critically than information inconsistent with a than information inconsistent with a preferred conclusion, and consequently, preferred conclusion, and consequently, less information is required to reach the less information is required to reach the former than the latter.”former than the latter.”

Ditto & Lopez, 1992, Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Ditto & Lopez, 1992, Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions, Journal of Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions, Journal of

Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 4, 568-584Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 4, 568-584


“…“…across age groups, scientific reasoning was across age groups, scientific reasoning was used to reject evidence that contradicted prior used to reject evidence that contradicted prior beliefs; relatively cursory reasoning was used beliefs; relatively cursory reasoning was used to accept belief-consistent evidence.to accept belief-consistent evidence.

““Biased reasoning was more common among Biased reasoning was more common among middle-aged and older adults than among middle-aged and older adults than among young adults.”young adults.”

Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000, Personal Theories, Intellectual Ability, and Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000, Personal Theories, Intellectual Ability, and Epistemological Beliefs: Adult Age Differences in Everyday Reasoning Epistemological Beliefs: Adult Age Differences in Everyday Reasoning BiasesPsychology and Aging, Vol. 15, No. 3. 400-416BiasesPsychology and Aging, Vol. 15, No. 3. 400-416

“…“…across age groups, scientific reasoning was across age groups, scientific reasoning was used to reject evidence that contradicted prior used to reject evidence that contradicted prior beliefs; relatively cursory reasoning was used beliefs; relatively cursory reasoning was used to accept belief-consistent evidence.to accept belief-consistent evidence.

““Biased reasoning was more common among Biased reasoning was more common among middle-aged and older adults than among middle-aged and older adults than among young adults.”young adults.”

Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000, Personal Theories, Intellectual Ability, and Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000, Personal Theories, Intellectual Ability, and Epistemological Beliefs: Adult Age Differences in Everyday Reasoning Epistemological Beliefs: Adult Age Differences in Everyday Reasoning BiasesPsychology and Aging, Vol. 15, No. 3. 400-416BiasesPsychology and Aging, Vol. 15, No. 3. 400-416

Barriers to New IdeasBarriers to New IdeasBarriers to New IdeasBarriers to New Ideas“…“…for incongruent evidence…Cognitive vigilance and for incongruent evidence…Cognitive vigilance and

accuracy motivation increase, evidence accuracy motivation increase, evidence representations are focused on logical coherence, representations are focused on logical coherence, and sophisticated reasoning abilities are activated.and sophisticated reasoning abilities are activated.

““A search for that reasoning strategy most likely to A search for that reasoning strategy most likely to yield satisfactory results (i.e., rejection of the yield satisfactory results (i.e., rejection of the unfavorable evidence) then ensues. If no such unfavorable evidence) then ensues. If no such strategy is found, processing reverts back…and strategy is found, processing reverts back…and developmentally primitive strategies are used to developmentally primitive strategies are used to reject the evidence.”reject the evidence.”

Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000Klaczynski & Robinson, 2000

“…“…for incongruent evidence…Cognitive vigilance and for incongruent evidence…Cognitive vigilance and accuracy motivation increase, evidence accuracy motivation increase, evidence representations are focused on logical coherence, representations are focused on logical coherence, and sophisticated reasoning abilities are activated.and sophisticated reasoning abilities are activated.

““A search for that reasoning strategy most likely to A search for that reasoning strategy most likely to yield satisfactory results (i.e., rejection of the yield satisfactory results (i.e., rejection of the unfavorable evidence) then ensues. If no such unfavorable evidence) then ensues. If no such strategy is found, processing reverts back…and strategy is found, processing reverts back…and developmentally primitive strategies are used to developmentally primitive strategies are used to reject the evidence.”reject the evidence.”



“…“…when confronted with an incompatible when confronted with an incompatible argument to evaluate, people will engage in a argument to evaluate, people will engage in a deliberative search of memory in an attempt deliberative search of memory in an attempt to retrieve material for use in refuting the to retrieve material for use in refuting the position advocated.position advocated.

““Because most of the retrieved material will be Because most of the retrieved material will be refutational in nature, there will be a bias to refutational in nature, there will be a bias to judge the argument as weak.”judge the argument as weak.”

Edwards & Smith, 1996, A Disconfirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Arguments, Edwards & Smith, 1996, A Disconfirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Arguments, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 71, No. 1, p.5-2Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 71, No. 1, p.5-2

“…“…when confronted with an incompatible when confronted with an incompatible argument to evaluate, people will engage in a argument to evaluate, people will engage in a deliberative search of memory in an attempt deliberative search of memory in an attempt to retrieve material for use in refuting the to retrieve material for use in refuting the position advocated.position advocated.

““Because most of the retrieved material will be Because most of the retrieved material will be refutational in nature, there will be a bias to refutational in nature, there will be a bias to judge the argument as weak.”judge the argument as weak.”

Edwards & Smith, 1996, A Disconfirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Arguments, Edwards & Smith, 1996, A Disconfirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Arguments, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 71, No. 1, p.5-2Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 71, No. 1, p.5-2


“…“…ideological subgroups failed to update ideological subgroups failed to update their beliefs when presented with their beliefs when presented with corrective information that runs counter corrective information that runs counter to their predispositions. Indeed, in to their predispositions. Indeed, in several cases…several cases…corrections actually corrections actually strengthenedstrengthened misperceptions among the misperceptions among the most strongly committed subjects.most strongly committed subjects.””

Nyhan & Reifler, 2010, When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Nyhan & Reifler, 2010, When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions, Political Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 2, p. 303-330Misperceptions, Political Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 2, p. 303-330

“…“…ideological subgroups failed to update ideological subgroups failed to update their beliefs when presented with their beliefs when presented with corrective information that runs counter corrective information that runs counter to their predispositions. Indeed, in to their predispositions. Indeed, in several cases…several cases…corrections actually corrections actually strengthenedstrengthened misperceptions among the misperceptions among the most strongly committed subjects.most strongly committed subjects.””

Nyhan & Reifler, 2010, When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Nyhan & Reifler, 2010, When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions, Political Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 2, p. 303-330Misperceptions, Political Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 2, p. 303-330

Implications for Presenting Implications for Presenting New IdeasNew IdeasImplications for Presenting Implications for Presenting New IdeasNew IdeasThe brain will do its best to defend The brain will do its best to defend

against new ideas that are incompatible against new ideas that are incompatible with firmly held beliefs.with firmly held beliefs.

When conclusions are presented first, When conclusions are presented first, as a structural frame to provide context as a structural frame to provide context for the data, personal bias may cause a for the data, personal bias may cause a rejection of subsequent supporting rejection of subsequent supporting information.information.

The brain will do its best to defend The brain will do its best to defend against new ideas that are incompatible against new ideas that are incompatible with firmly held beliefs.with firmly held beliefs.

When conclusions are presented first, When conclusions are presented first, as a structural frame to provide context as a structural frame to provide context for the data, personal bias may cause a for the data, personal bias may cause a rejection of subsequent supporting rejection of subsequent supporting information.information.

Is There Any Hope?Is There Any Hope?Is There Any Hope?Is There Any Hope?

““There is considerable evidence that There is considerable evidence that people are more likely to arrive at people are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at, conclusions that they want to arrive at, but their ability to do so is constrained but their ability to do so is constrained by their ability to construct seemingly by their ability to construct seemingly reasonable justifications for these reasonable justifications for these conclusionsconclusions.”.”

Kunda, 1990, The Case for Motivated Reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, Kunda, 1990, The Case for Motivated Reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 108, No. 3, 480-498Vol. 108, No. 3, 480-498

““There is considerable evidence that There is considerable evidence that people are more likely to arrive at people are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at, conclusions that they want to arrive at, but their ability to do so is constrained but their ability to do so is constrained by their ability to construct seemingly by their ability to construct seemingly reasonable justifications for these reasonable justifications for these conclusionsconclusions.”.”

Kunda, 1990, The Case for Motivated Reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, Kunda, 1990, The Case for Motivated Reasoning, Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 108, No. 3, 480-498Vol. 108, No. 3, 480-498

Hope…Hope…Hope…Hope…

“…“…when confronted with a when confronted with a compatible compatible argumentargument, people will allocate fewer , people will allocate fewer processing resources to its scrutiny and processing resources to its scrutiny and will be more inclined to accept the will be more inclined to accept the argument at face value or judge it to be argument at face value or judge it to be strong, or bothstrong, or both.”.”

Edwards & Smith, 1996Edwards & Smith, 1996

“…“…when confronted with a when confronted with a compatible compatible argumentargument, people will allocate fewer , people will allocate fewer processing resources to its scrutiny and processing resources to its scrutiny and will be more inclined to accept the will be more inclined to accept the argument at face value or judge it to be argument at face value or judge it to be strong, or bothstrong, or both.”.”

Edwards & Smith, 1996Edwards & Smith, 1996


““If evidence is theory congruent… If evidence is theory congruent… Cognitive vigilance, accuracy Cognitive vigilance, accuracy motivation, and efforts to prevent motivation, and efforts to prevent memory interference are low; the data memory interference are low; the data are assimilated into theory; and are assimilated into theory; and arguments for evidence acceptance are arguments for evidence acceptance are often superficial.”often superficial.”


““If evidence is theory congruent… If evidence is theory congruent… Cognitive vigilance, accuracy Cognitive vigilance, accuracy motivation, and efforts to prevent motivation, and efforts to prevent memory interference are low; the data memory interference are low; the data are assimilated into theory; and are assimilated into theory; and arguments for evidence acceptance are arguments for evidence acceptance are often superficial.”often superficial.”



““For analytically oriented individuals, the For analytically oriented individuals, the outcome of reviewing theory-relevant outcome of reviewing theory-relevant evidence depends on the quality of the evidence depends on the quality of the evidence and may lead to theory evidence and may lead to theory maintenance or theory revision.”maintenance or theory revision.”


““For analytically oriented individuals, the For analytically oriented individuals, the outcome of reviewing theory-relevant outcome of reviewing theory-relevant evidence depends on the quality of the evidence depends on the quality of the evidence and may lead to theory evidence and may lead to theory maintenance or theory revision.”maintenance or theory revision.”


What to Do?What to Do?What to Do?What to Do?

Avoid triggeringAvoid triggering Disconfirmation biasDisconfirmation bias Backfire effectBackfire effect

Avoid triggeringAvoid triggering Disconfirmation biasDisconfirmation bias Backfire effectBackfire effect

What to Do?What to Do?What to Do?What to Do?

Identify firmly held beliefs & triggersIdentify firmly held beliefs & triggersPresent congruent information as a Present congruent information as a

foundationfoundationFrame arguments as compatible with Frame arguments as compatible with

beliefsbeliefs



beliefsbeliefs

ApplicationApplicationApplicationApplication

Questions FirstQuestions FirstProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextPresent Core EvidencePresent Core Evidence

focus on the congruent & compatiblefocus on the congruent & compatibleBuild up to the ConclusionBuild up to the Conclusion

Questions FirstQuestions FirstProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextPresent Core EvidencePresent Core Evidence

focus on the congruent & compatiblefocus on the congruent & compatibleBuild up to the ConclusionBuild up to the Conclusion

Questions FirstQuestions FirstQuestions FirstQuestions First

Identify the audienceIdentify the audiencePeople saving questionsPeople saving questions

Have trouble focusingHave trouble focusing Might maintain a hostile moodMight maintain a hostile mood

Discuss myths and misperceptionsDiscuss myths and misperceptions Audience can begin to discardAudience can begin to discard Not “straw men”Not “straw men”

Identify the audienceIdentify the audiencePeople saving questionsPeople saving questions

Have trouble focusingHave trouble focusing Might maintain a hostile moodMight maintain a hostile mood

Discuss myths and misperceptionsDiscuss myths and misperceptions Audience can begin to discardAudience can begin to discard Not “straw men”Not “straw men”

Questions FirstQuestions FirstQuestions FirstQuestions First

Provide cards to arriving audienceProvide cards to arriving audiencePrompt for positive & negative Prompt for positive & negative

questionsquestionsSort quickly and respond to someSort quickly and respond to someUse the remainder to frame the Use the remainder to frame the

presentationpresentation

Set a positive, respectful toneSet a positive, respectful tone

Provide cards to arriving audienceProvide cards to arriving audiencePrompt for positive & negative Prompt for positive & negative

questionsquestionsSort quickly and respond to someSort quickly and respond to someUse the remainder to frame the Use the remainder to frame the

presentationpresentation

Set a positive, respectful toneSet a positive, respectful tone

Dealing With The CardsDealing With The CardsDealing With The CardsDealing With The Cards

Use outline to sortUse outline to sortBuild a historyBuild a history

Develop categoriesDevelop categories Sort quicklySort quickly Identify key conceptsIdentify key concepts

The first time is the worstThe first time is the worst

Use outline to sortUse outline to sortBuild a historyBuild a history

Develop categoriesDevelop categories Sort quicklySort quickly Identify key conceptsIdentify key concepts

The first time is the worstThe first time is the worst

Provide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical Context

People respond to storiesPeople respond to storiesPeople relate to strugglePeople relate to struggleProvides a frame of referenceProvides a frame of referencePresents many myths & misperceptions Presents many myths & misperceptions

as valid but out-of-dateas valid but out-of-dateScientists are protagonistsScientists are protagonists

People respond to storiesPeople respond to storiesPeople relate to strugglePeople relate to struggleProvides a frame of referenceProvides a frame of referencePresents many myths & misperceptions Presents many myths & misperceptions

as valid but out-of-dateas valid but out-of-dateScientists are protagonistsScientists are protagonists

Provide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical Context

Tell the storyTell the storyDescribe the original understandingDescribe the original understandingSet up the problem(s)Set up the problem(s)Stop at key waypointsStop at key waypointsHighlight evidence that was surprising Highlight evidence that was surprising

at the timeat the timeBuild up to the conclusionBuild up to the conclusion

Tell the storyTell the storyDescribe the original understandingDescribe the original understandingSet up the problem(s)Set up the problem(s)Stop at key waypointsStop at key waypointsHighlight evidence that was surprising Highlight evidence that was surprising

at the timeat the timeBuild up to the conclusionBuild up to the conclusion

Present First Evidence FirstPresent First Evidence FirstPresent First Evidence FirstPresent First Evidence First

Models good scienceModels good scienceBuilds the historical chainBuilds the historical chainThe early evidence convinced the early The early evidence convinced the early

skepticsskeptics

Presenting conclusions firstPresenting conclusions first appears to be a prioriappears to be a priori triggers cognitive barrierstriggers cognitive barriers removes contextremoves context

Models good scienceModels good scienceBuilds the historical chainBuilds the historical chainThe early evidence convinced the early The early evidence convinced the early

skepticsskeptics

Presenting conclusions firstPresenting conclusions first appears to be a prioriappears to be a priori triggers cognitive barrierstriggers cognitive barriers removes contextremoves context


PresentationsPresentations Global WarmingGlobal Warming EvolutionEvolution

Course unitCourse unit OceanographyOceanography

Whole courseWhole course Historical GeologyHistorical Geology

PresentationsPresentations Global WarmingGlobal Warming EvolutionEvolution

Course unitCourse unit OceanographyOceanography

Whole courseWhole course Historical GeologyHistorical Geology

Global Warming PresentationGlobal Warming PresentationGlobal Warming PresentationGlobal Warming Presentation

Cards/questions firstCards/questions first The RecordThe Record

HistoricalHistorical Add “easy” proxies (ice cores & tree rings)Add “easy” proxies (ice cores & tree rings) Add “hard” proxies (fossils & isotopes)Add “hard” proxies (fossils & isotopes)

The StoryThe Story Initial broad skepticism - “humans can’t impact”Initial broad skepticism - “humans can’t impact” Building data - “it is getting hotter”Building data - “it is getting hotter” Computer models - “increasing complexity”Computer models - “increasing complexity” Assigning drivers - “CSI - The Climate”Assigning drivers - “CSI - The Climate” Assigning responsibility - “But how much?”Assigning responsibility - “But how much?” Determining response - “What is appropriate?”Determining response - “What is appropriate?”

Cards/questions firstCards/questions first The RecordThe Record

HistoricalHistorical Add “easy” proxies (ice cores & tree rings)Add “easy” proxies (ice cores & tree rings) Add “hard” proxies (fossils & isotopes)Add “hard” proxies (fossils & isotopes)

The StoryThe Story Initial broad skepticism - “humans can’t impact”Initial broad skepticism - “humans can’t impact” Building data - “it is getting hotter”Building data - “it is getting hotter” Computer models - “increasing complexity”Computer models - “increasing complexity” Assigning drivers - “CSI - The Climate”Assigning drivers - “CSI - The Climate” Assigning responsibility - “But how much?”Assigning responsibility - “But how much?” Determining response - “What is appropriate?”Determining response - “What is appropriate?”

Oceanography Evolution UnitOceanography Evolution UnitOceanography Evolution UnitOceanography Evolution UnitCards/questions firstCards/questions first

monkey-human relationshipmonkey-human relationship variety of religious viewsvariety of religious views naturalismnaturalism ““the strongest survive”the strongest survive”

The Story - DarwinThe Story - DarwinThe Evidence - “Origin” as a guideThe Evidence - “Origin” as a guide

for evolution: rocks, fossils, anatomy, for evolution: rocks, fossils, anatomy, geneticsgenetics

for natural selection: selective breading, for natural selection: selective breading, natural conditions, mutations, populations natural conditions, mutations, populations

Cards/questions firstCards/questions first monkey-human relationshipmonkey-human relationship variety of religious viewsvariety of religious views naturalismnaturalism ““the strongest survive”the strongest survive”

The Story - DarwinThe Story - DarwinThe Evidence - “Origin” as a guideThe Evidence - “Origin” as a guide

for evolution: rocks, fossils, anatomy, for evolution: rocks, fossils, anatomy, geneticsgenetics

for natural selection: selective breading, for natural selection: selective breading, natural conditions, mutations, populations natural conditions, mutations, populations

Historical Geology CourseHistorical Geology CourseHistorical Geology CourseHistorical Geology Course

Reading the rocksReading the rocksReading the fossilsReading the fossils Interpreting rock forming environmentsInterpreting rock forming environmentsRelative datingRelative datingAbsolute datingAbsolute datingHistory of the Earth (presented by History of the Earth (presented by

students)students)CladisticsCladisticsEvolution & Natural SelectionEvolution & Natural Selection

Reading the rocksReading the rocksReading the fossilsReading the fossils Interpreting rock forming environmentsInterpreting rock forming environmentsRelative datingRelative datingAbsolute datingAbsolute datingHistory of the Earth (presented by History of the Earth (presented by

students)students)CladisticsCladisticsEvolution & Natural SelectionEvolution & Natural Selection

Key PointsKey PointsKey PointsKey Points



beliefsbeliefs



beliefsbeliefs


Questions FirstQuestions FirstProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextPresent Core EvidencePresent Core EvidenceBuild up to the ConclusionBuild up to the Conclusion

Questions FirstQuestions FirstProvide Historical ContextProvide Historical ContextPresent Core EvidencePresent Core EvidenceBuild up to the ConclusionBuild up to the Conclusion

Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!

Mike PhillipsIllinois Valley Community College

[email protected]://www.ivcc.edu/phillips

Mike PhillipsIllinois Valley Community College

[email protected]://www.ivcc.edu/phillips

Saving the Best for Last Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy by Answering Questions First and...

Documents

Transcript of Saving the Best for Last Addressing Subjects of Public Controversy by Answering Questions First and...