Savera Industries Ltd - NSE...Savera Industries Ltd’s (Savera’s) Q2FY12 results were in line...
Transcript of Savera Industries Ltd - NSE...Savera Industries Ltd’s (Savera’s) Q2FY12 results were in line...
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Enhancing investment decisions
Q2FY12 Result Update
Savera Industries Ltd
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –
Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental
grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The
valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to
grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISIL Fundamental Grade
Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade
Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest
that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure
This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:
This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL
(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for
any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without
any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold
any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this
Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be
reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or
published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1
Fair Value Rs 73 CMP Rs 36
November 29, 2011
Savera Industries Ltd Stable growth as expected
Fundamental Grade 2/5 (Moderate fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)
Industry Hotels, Restaurant & Leisure
Savera Industries Ltd’s (Savera’s) Q2FY12 results were in line with CRISIL Research’s expectations. Revenue grew by 7.5% y-o-y, which is in line with our expectation. However, higher employee cost offset revenue growth which has resulted in lower EBITDA margin of 26.8%, (declined by 448 bps y-o-y), though it was in line with our expectations. Given the higher interest and depreciation costs, PAT declined by 19% y-o-y to Rs 15 mn. We maintain our fundamental grade of 2/5. Q2FY12 result analysis
• Revenue grew by 7.5% y-o-y to Rs 131 mn, which is in line with our
expectation. For H1FY12, revenue grew by 12.8% y-o-y to Rs 256. We
understand that occupancy rate (OR) and average room rate (ARR) during
the quarter were stable compared to last quarter though we do not have
the exact number as we have not been able to interact with the
management. The OR and ARR in Q2FY11 stood at 73% and Rs 3,182
• EBITDA margin decreased by 448 bps y-o-y to 26.8% due to higher
employee and operating costs which increased by 36.5% and 14.8% y-o-y,
respectively. For H1FY12, EBITDA margin was 29.5%, down by 138 bps
y-o-y
• Increased interest cost and depreciation impacted profitability during the
quarter. PAT declined by 19.0% y-o-y to Rs 15 mn and was slightly below
our estimates. For H1FY12, PAT declined by 5.4% y-o-y to Rs 33 mn. Key development
• Mrs Neena Reddy, one of the promoter has increased her stake in the
company by 0.54% to 9.05% via open market purchase. Also, one of the
promoter group companies, Amaravathi Restaurant Pvt Ltd, increased
stake in the company by 0.38% to 0.68% via open market purchase
Valuations: Current market price has strong upside
We continue to use the EV/adjusted room basis to value Savera. We have assigned a multiple of Rs 4.5 mn on EV/adjusted room, which translates into a fair value of Rs 73 per share. Based on the current market price, our valuation grade is 5/5.
KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
Operating income 397 352 480 506 538
EBITDA 117 95 140 148 160
Adj PAT 5 25 53 70 83
Adj EPS-Rs 0.4 2.1 4.5 5.9 6.9
EPS growth (%) (91.6) 435.4 109.3 31.7 18.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.7 3.3 3.6 4.3
RoCE (%) 17.4 16.4 25.4 26.7 29.1
RoE (%) 2.1 10.7 19.9 22.6 22.6
PE (x) 90.3 16.9 8.1 6.1 5.2
P/BV (x) 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.4 4.3 3.6 2.8
#FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 4851
NSE ticker SAVERA
Face value (Rs per share) 10
Shares outstanding (mn) 11.9
Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 429/8
Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 606/12
52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 52/29
Beta 0.9
Free float (%) 40.5%
Avg daily volumes (30-days) 2,925
Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
SAVERA -5% -1% -2% -21%
NIFTY -10% 2% -11% -16%
ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]
Sandeep Panchal [email protected]
Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]
Client servicing desk
+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
Fu
nd
am
en
tal G
rad
e
Poor Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
Str
on
gD
ow
nsid
e
Str
on
gU
psid
e52.3% 52.3%
59.2% 59.5%
47.8% 47.8%40.8% 40.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11
Promoter Others
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 2
Savera Industries Ltd
Q2FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY12 H1FY11 y-o-y (%)
Net sales 131 127 122 3.4 7.5 256 227 12.8
Raw materials cost 28 18 29 56.0 (3.5) 55 53 3.1
Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 21.0% 13.9% 23.4% 710bps -241bps 21.5% 23.5% -203bps
Employees cost 31 24 23 29.6 36.5 55 43 27.6
Other expenses 37 44 32 (16.3) 14.8 70 60 16.7
EBITDA 35 41 38 (13.8) (7.9) 75 70 7.8
EBITDA margin 26.8% 32.1% 31.3% -534bps -448bps 29.5% 30.9% -138bps
Depreciation 6 7 5 (8.2) 16.8 12 10 21.5
EBIT 29 34 33 (14.9) (11.7) 63 60 5.5
Interest and finance charges 8 7 6 7.8 29.8 15 12 22.5
Operating PBT 21 27 27 (20.8) (20.6) 49 48 1.3
Other Income - 0 - - - - - -
Exceptional items - - - - - - (4) 0.0
PBT 21 27 27 (21.6) (20.6) 49 52 -6.1
Tax 7 9 9 (29.9) (24.1) 16 17 -7.6
PAT 15 18 18 (17.3) (19.0) 32.9 35 -5.4
Adj PAT 15 18 18 (17.3) (19.0) 33 35 -5.4
Adj PAT margin 11.4% 14.3% 15.2% -286bps -375bps 12.9% 15.3% -247bps
No of equity shares (mn) 11.9 11.9 11.9 - - 11.9 11.9 0.0
Adj EPS (Rs) 1.3 1.5 1.6 (17.3) (19.0) 2.8 2.9 -5.4
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Moderate revenue growth EBITDA margin declines
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Savera underperformed NIFTY Fair value movement since initiation
-indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
90 100 106 122 119 131 127 131
3.4%
11.1%
6.4%
14.6%
-2.3%
10.4%
-3.5%
3.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec-
10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
(Rs mn)
Net Sales Sales Growth (RHS)
22 29 32 38 33 35 41 35
24.4%
28.8%30.2% 31.3%
27.8% 26.7%
32.1%
26.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
Jun-1
0
Sep-
10
Dec-
10
Mar
-11
Jun-1
1
Sep-
11
(Rs mn)
EBITDA EBITDA Margin(RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-
10
Aug
-10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec-
10
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-
11
Jul-
11
Aug
-11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Savera NIFTY
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov-1
0
Dec-
10
Jan-1
1
Feb-1
1
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May-1
1
Jun-
11
Jul-
11
Aug
-11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov-1
1
('000)(Rs)
Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Savera
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 3
Savera Industries Ltd
VALUATION
We continue to value Savera on the EV/adjusted room basis. We have assigned
a multiple of Rs 4.5 mn on EV/adjusted room. Given the inherent value of its
230-room hotel in Chennai and the strong outlook for the hospitality sector, we
maintain our fair value of Rs 73. Based on the current market price, our
valuation grade is 5/5.
One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
CRISIL IER reports released on Savera Industries Ltd
Date Nature of report
Fundamental
grade Fair value
Valuation
grade
CMP
(on the date of report)
11-Nov-10 Initiating coverage* 2/5 Rs 73 5/5 Rs 55
16-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 73 5/5 Rs 38
07-June-11 Q4FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 73 5/5 Rs 38
26-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 73 5/5 Rs 37
29-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 73 5/5 Rs 36
* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Apr-
08
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
Oct
-08
Jan-0
9
Mar
-09
May-0
9
Aug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
May-1
0
Jul-
10
Sep-
10
Dec-
10
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Sep-
11
Nov-1
1
(Rs)
Savera 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Apr-
08
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
Oct
-08
Jan-0
9
Mar
-09
May-0
9
Aug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
May-1
0
Jul-
10
Sep-
10
Dec-
10
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Sep-
11
Nov-1
1
(Rs mn)
EV 3x 4x 5x 6x
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Apr-
08
Jun-0
8
Aug-
08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Mar-
09
May-
09
Aug-
09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
Mar-
10
May-
10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
Dec-
10
Feb-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
Nov-
11
Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr-
08
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
Oct
-08
Jan-0
9
Mar
-09
May-0
9
Aug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec-
09
Mar
-10
May-1
0
Jul-
10
Sep-
10
Dec-
10
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-
11
Sep-
11
Nov-1
1
(Times)
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 4
Savera Industries Ltd
FINANCIALS
Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate
Income statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
Operating income 397 352 480 506 538 Liabilities
EBITDA 117 95 140 148 160 Equity share capital 60 60 119 119 119
EBITDA margin 29.5% 26.9% 29.1% 29.2% 29.7% Reserves 173 185 166 217 277
Depreciation 30 21 23 22 23 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 88 73 117 126 137 Net worth 232 245 285 336 397
Interest 51 25 24 19 13 Convertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 37 48 93 106 124 Other debt 231 186 186 132 78
Other income (8) (3) - 2 2 Total debt 231 186 186 132 78
Exceptional inc/(exp) - - (4) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 4 4 4 4 4
PBT 29 45 89 108 127 Total liabilities 468 435 475 472 479
Tax provision 24 19 32 38 44 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 440 431 434 422 409
PAT (Reported) 5 25 57 70 83 Capital WIP - - - - -
Less: Exceptionals - - (4) - - Total fixed assets 440 431 434 422 409
Adjusted PAT 5 25 53 70 83 Investments 0 4 2 2 2
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 8 9 12 13 14
FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 17 13 17 18 19
Growth Loans and advances 36 27 36 39 39
Operating income (%) (13.3) (11.3) 36.5 5.4 6.3 Cash & bank balance 7 9 25 31 52
EBITDA (%) (25.1) (19.0) 47.6 5.8 8.1 Marketable securities - - - - -
Adj PAT (%) (91.6) 435.4 126.0 31.6 18.1 Total current assets 69 58 90 101 124
Adj EPS (%) (91.6) 435.4 109.3 31.7 18.1 Total current liabilities 52 65 51 53 56
Net current assets 17 (7) 39 48 67
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 11 7 - - -
EBITDA margin (%) 29.5 26.9 29.1 29.2 29.7 Total assets 468 435 475 472 479
Adj PAT Margin (%) 1.2 7.2 11.2 13.8 15.4
RoE (%) 2.1 10.7 19.9 22.6 22.6 Cash flow
RoCE (%) 17.4 16.4 25.4 26.7 29.1 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E
RoIC (%) 9.6 10.9 19.0 20.7 22.9 Pre-tax profit 29 45 93 108 127
Total tax paid (24) (19) (34) (38) (44)
Valuations Depreciation 30 21 22 22 23
Price-earnings (x) 90.3 16.9 8.1 6.1 5.2 Working capital changes (13) 26 (31) (3) 1
Price-book (x) 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 Net cash from operations 22 73 50 90 107
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.4 4.3 3.6 2.8 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 Capital expenditure 60 (9) (18) (10) (10)
Dividend payout ratio (%) 146.9 28.1 26.6 22.3 22.1 Investments and others - (4) 2 - -
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.7 3.3 3.6 4.3 Net cash from investments 60 (13) (16) (10) (10)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - - 60 - -
Inventory days 12 14 14 14 14.5 Debt raised/(repaid) (84) (45) (0) (54) (54)
Creditors days 36 64 26 25 25.3 Dividend (incl. tax) (7) (7) (16) (18) (21)
Debtor days 18 15 15 15 14.8 Others (incl extraordinaries) 10 (6) (56) (1) (1)
Working capital days 3 (4) (1) 11 11.1 Net cash from financing (81) (58) (12) (73) (76)
Gross asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 Change in cash position 1 1 22 6 20
Net asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 C losing cash 7 9 25 31 52
Sales/operating assets (x) 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3
Current ratio (x) 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 Quarterly financials
Debt-equity (x) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12
Net debt/equity (x) 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 Net Sales 122 119 131 127 131
Interest coverage 1.7 2.9 5.1 6.5 10.7 Change (q-o-q) 15% -2% 10% -4% 3%
EBITDA 38 33 35 41 35
Per share Change (q-o-q) 19% -13% 6% 16% -14%
FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 31.3% 27.8% 26.7% 32.1% 26.8%
Adj EPS (Rs) 0.4 2.1 4.5 5.9 6.9 PAT 18 18 11 18 15
CEPS 2.9 3.9 6.3 7.8 8.8 Adj PAT 18 18 11 18 15
Book value 19.5 20.5 23.9 28.2 33.3 Change (q-o-q) 109% -2% -39% 65% -17%
Dividend (Rs) 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 Adj PAT margin 15.2% 15.2% 8.3% 14.3% 11.4%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 Adj EPS 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.3
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Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai - 400 076 Phone : 91-22-3342 3000 Web: www.crisil.com Download reports from: www.ier.co.in
Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668
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