Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities

and New Business Models for Industry

Stakeholders

Presentation to

20th Sept 2010

2

36

0 D

eg

ree

Vis

ion

of

the G

lob

al E

lectr

ic

Veh

icle

In

du

str

y

Global EV Market Size and Forecasts – PVs, LCVs

and 2 Wheelers

Agenda

New Personal Mobility Business Models

Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology

Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends

Business Model Analysis of Key Industry

Stakeholders

Opportunities in Electric Vehicles Market, Q&A

3

Three Main Trends in Urbanization Will Impact Mobility Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

MEGACITY

City With A Minimum

Population Of 10

Million

EXAMPLE: Greater

London

MEGA REGIONS

Megacities combining

with suburbs to form

mega regions.

(Population over 15

Million)

EXAMPLE: “Jo-

Toria” (Johanessburg/

Pretoria and Gautang

region)

MEGA CORRIDORS

Transport corridors

connecting two or more

major cities or mega

regions

EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-

Shenzhen-Guangzhou in

China (Population 120

Million)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

4 M5A9-18

By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors

and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities

1950s Urbanisation

2000s Suburb-anisation

2015s Network City

2020s : Branded Cities

•! Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.

•! cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.

•! Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.

•! ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).

•! cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the inter-modal public transport and working areas in third and second belt.

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

Creation of the historic centre and districts

Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing

outside the ring road as seen in

London

Source: Frost & Sullivan

5

New Mobility Business Model - Carsharing: Over 4.5 mn members expected in

US and Canada by 2016

87.8%

12.2%

80.4%

19.6%

453,700 10,194

2009

2016 Potential

More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues

More than 4.4 million members

More than 72,000 vehicles in carsharing

6

Case Study: Mu by Peugeot – Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions

Under One Roof

by

Peugeot Weekend Services

Travel Services

Driving Behaviour and Rewards

Personal Transport Solutions

Vehicle Accessories

Service Units

Hiring Units

Market for Carsharing: Mu by Peugeot – Overview and Business Model (Europe), 2009

Create an account to use

this scheme

Pay subscription charges

to get charging units

Working Concept

Hire services or products

based on balance in

charging units

Earn mobility (reward)

points that can be used for

select services

Source: Frost & Sullivan

!! Partnering with travel agencies,

driving schools amongst others.

!! Booking services on train,

airplane travel and hotels.

!! Discounts, prizes and member

advantages.

Decrease spending

by using the same

infrastructure and staff

Generate income

from the stock of

vehicles sitting at dealerships

!! Micro-mobility solutions such

as bicycles and scooters.

!! Rental cars and vans.

!! Vehicle accessories such as

roof-boxes, cycle racks and

child seats.

Brest

Rennes

Nantes

Lyon

Paris

Current Points of Sale

Brest: 2

Nantes: 7 Rennes: 4

Lyon: 4 Paris: 5

Expected to be expanded in key EU cities in 2010-2011

7 M5B6-18

66%

23%

8%

70%

19%

1%

2%

63%

20%

2% 1%

1.3 Million

66%

20%

3%

1%

2009 2015

7,260

6%

25%

54%

15%

68%

18% 10%

2%

EV Market Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 70% Share In Europe; NA

to Witness More PHEVs/eREVs with a 20% Share

3%

8% 14%

10%

EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2015

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan

2%

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

8 M5B6-18

Over 47 OEMs are Expected to Compete in the Global EV Market With

Over 75 models by 2015

Battery Recycling and Second Life Market: EV Sales Breakdown by Vehicle Segments (APAC, Western Europe and North America),

2015

Market Size in Major Regions

(APAC, Western Europe and North America) 1.16 Mn

Total Number of EV OEMS 47

Total Number of EV Models ~79

(93%)

TRADITIONAL OEMS – (Sales Unit)

(7%)

NON – TRADITIONAL – (Sales Unit)

iMEV BMW Mini Nissan Leaf GM Volt Toyota IQ

Subaru - R1e/G4e VW UP Volvo C30 Tata Indica Smart -

THINK City ZENN Pininfarina Blue

ZAP

Heuiiez WILL

BYD F6DM CODA OPTIMAL ENERGY

688,255 75,810

115,121

230,701

5,000

20,875

17,380

6,858

CEV eREV PHEV NEV/QC HPEV Unclassified

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is

2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

9

Chinese OEMs to launch 35 EV Models in Next 3 to 5 Years

Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2015

A00 EV

SAIC

A00

A0

A

B

MPV

SUV

F3DM

BYD

620EV

Lifan

Beni EV

Chana

QQ3 EV

Chery

Tiggo EV

Chery

M1 EV

Chery

E6

BYD

premacy EV

FAW

i-car

Dongfeng

Yueyue EV

JAC M1e

FAW

320EV

Lifan

Haima EV

FAW

F6DM

BYD

Shuaike EV

Dongfeng

F0 EV

BYD

Mpe

FAW

Oula

Great Wall

EK-2

Geely

Yuexiang EV

Chana

Zhonghua EV

Brilliance

550 plug-in

SAIC

Zhixiang plug-in

Chana

Heyue plug-in

JAC

Saibao EV

Hafei

Odin EV

Dongfeng

Ruiqi EV

Dongfeng

2008 EV

Zhongtai

Midi EV

BAW

BE 701

BAW

EK-1

Geely

2009 2011 2010 2012

Sum 1 9 10 12

13

2

7

2

3

5

Source : Frost & Sullivan

10

Electric 2 Wheelers – eBicycle, eScooter and eMotor Bike Market

Worth Over 25M Units Worldwide

Hub motor driven

purely by throttle

Regenerative braking

functionality in high end

models

•! 125 Volt NiMH battery

•! Charging time – 2 hours

•! Acceleration (0 – 80 kph) – 6.8s

•! Max speed – 100 kph

•! Range – 110 km @ 40 kph

Vectrix Electric Scooter

Lead Acid / NiMH Battery

XM 3000 Electric Moped Sanyo Enacle

•! 60 Volt lead acid battery

•! Charging time – 7 hours

•! Max speed – 70 kph

•! Range – 80 km

Motor driven by torque

sensor on pedal

•! Regenerative Braking*

•! Range – 35 km / 50 km*

•! Over 20 million electric 2 wheelers sold globally in 2008

•! Modest growth expected globally with 22 million sales forecast by 2010

11

Electric Vehicle Industry EcoSystem Provides Opportunity to Enter

New Fields

Utilities Integrators (e.g. Better Place)

OEMs

System/Battery

Manufacturers Government

Charging

Station

Manufacturers

12

Source: Frost & Sullivan

•! Charge Payment

Program /

Subscription based services

•! Manufacturing &

Sales

•! Load Management

•! Extended E-

mobility solution

e.g. vehicle sharing

•! Energy

Subscription

Packages

Po

ssib

le R

even

ue

Str

eam

s

Charging Stations

Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity Telematics &

other value added

services

Serv

ices

Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an

Integrator in the E-Mobility Market

•! Installation &

Maintenance

•! Revenues from

value added

services

•! Premium revenues

via Renewable

Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy

•! Premium revenues

via Peak Power Vs

Off Peak Charging

•! Level 1 Vs Level 2

Vs Level 3 Charging

•! Battery Leasing

Model

•! Refurbishing

•! Recycling

•! Battery 2nd life

•! Battery

Swapping

•! Extend to other

E-mobility

solutions

•! Battery

Integration

•! Offering After-

Sales services –

•! Market green

solutions such as

Solar panels to E-Mobility client base

•! investment in

renewable energy

such as wind farms and gain carbon

credits

•! Recycling and

Refurbishing

•! Premium revenues

via Peak Power Vs

Off Peak Charging

•! Premium revenues

via Renewable

Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy

•! Subscription

based Energy

service Scheme

•! Data Aggregator

( working with other

partners)

•! Battery

management

services

•! Advanced booking

of charging stations

•! V2V and V2G

Communication

•! Added value

service (POIs,

Diagnostics, etc)

13

Source Of Revenue Generation Calculated over 5 years (based on certain assumptions)

1. Revenues from Selling Electricity !300Mn - !400Mn

2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations !500Mn - !700Mn

3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations !300Mn - !500Mn

4. Revenues from Other Sources (Solar panels and other retailing, Advertising, Load Balancing, Garage Referrals, Data Downloads etc) ! 450Mn - ! 650Mn

Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside

Selling Energy

Capital Investment (1st yr)

Fixed & Operating Cost

TOTAL: !1.5 bn - !2 bn

!640Mn - !650Mn

!48Mn - !50Mn

Includes:

!New Energy Capacity

Command and control centre

!Network Recurring Cost

!Charging Station Purchase Cost

!Installation and Maintenance cost

!Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost

14

Mobility

Car Sharing –

Choosing,

Reservation

and locating

cars,

Car/Van

Pooling – car

and van

pooling apps,

Multimodal

Transport –

apps for real

time bus/

transit

Car Sharing

Vehicle

Access

Entertainment

Internet

Radio

e.g. Pandora,

RadioTime

IP TV – live tv

using

internet,

eg. .SPB TV,

Social

Networking –

e.g. Twitter,

Facebook,

News –

Online radio

news, RSS

feeds reader

Vehicle Access/ Security

Vehicle

Locator

Vehicle

Access –

converting

phone in to

smart key

Remote Car

Starter/

Security

Remote

Vehicle Horn/

Light Flash –

Security App,

Telematics

Emergency

Assistance –

App

Real Time

Video Traffic

Feeds

Diagnostics –

TPMS,

service/oil

notifications,

Integrated

Telematics –

eCall/bCall/

Tolling

Electric Vehicles

State of

Charge

Monitoring

App

Charging

Station

Locator

Interior Pre-

Condition

App

EV Billing

Navigation

Turn by Turn

Navigation

Dynamic POI

Finder

Real time

Traffic

Information

3D

Navigation

with Video

Support

Automotive Apps: From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for

Cars are becoming a Value Added Development

15

On Board Computers for Electric Vehicles – Developments like Nissan Leaf IT

System, Better Place Autos Highlight the Importance V2G and V2I Communication

The electric car has an intelligent brain

An integrated IT support system

constantly collects data

from various electric car users

A back-end service center provides information to users and also analyzes

driving patterns among others

This brain is wirelessly connected to an IT Server

This backend server also interfaces with utilities to

manage grid impact and also informs the user

about the best time for recharge

Nissan Leaf IT System

Better Place AutoOS

exam

ple

exam

ple

Intuitive and sophisticated software scan various

vehicle parameters and ensure optimum vehicle

performance

This brain is the onboard computing

platform

16

Steering

Short List of New and Evolving Technologies (in-side Vehicle)

Power Train Interiors & Acoustics

Others Power

Systems Chassis

Active Front Steering

Steer By Wire

Braking

HBS+EVP

Brake by Wire/ EMB

Engine

Electric Motors – PMM/ Induction/

SR/ In-wheel, Hub Motors

E-Engine

Gearbox

Integrated transmission

with differential

In-wheel motors w/o transmission

Batteries

Lithium Ion + Lead Acid for SLI

(Optional)

P-Electronics

Stepped DC/DC, DC/AC

Converters, Inverters

Advanced BMS

16-32-bit "-controllers,

IGBTs, MOSFETs

Charging unit/equipment

Harness

12V/ 300-440V

CAN/TT-CAN/Flex Ray

Cockpit

Battery SOC, Temperature

Indicator

Charging Systems Indicator-Locators\

Motor Vehicle Speed, Distance

Calculator

NVH

High Frequency Isolators

Sound Generators

E-Systems

eHVAC Systems (Electric

Compressors)

Electric Water Pump

Emerging (new) Technologies

Evolving Technologies

Legend:

Range Extender Module

Others

Electric Axle and E-AWD

Electric Corner Module

Integrated Battery Modules

Telematics

LED Lighting

Cooling systems

17

Examples of Electrical Products Worth Considering

MSD Plug

Assembly MSD Base Assembly

Bulk head Battery Disconnect Units

Travel Cord Set

(CCID)

Charge Station Receptacle

Source: Pictures Lear

Specialist Plug and Inlets

POWER

ELECTRONICS

• H.V. Battery

Monitoring System

• Traction Inverter`

CHARGING SYSTEMS

• Wall-Mount Cord Set

• On-Board Chargers

• Off-Board Chargers

POWER DISTRIBUTION

• Manual Disconnect

• Connection Systems

• Battery Disconnect unit

Other Products

M35F-18 18

Contacts

Sarwant Singh

Practice Director

Automotive & Transportation

P : +44 207 915 7843

Email : sarwant.singh@frost.com