In each of these summaries a National Grid analyst presented what life might be like living in the scenarios in 2040

Gone Green is our high prosperity, high green ambition scenario. Here, Government interventions are a clear, and a strong driver for individuals and for businesses in the energy sector and wider. There are regulations, incentives and taxes that shape our decisions, moving us to a lower carbon world.

Low carbon technologies such as in heating and renewable energy are more accessible as a result of funding for innovation. This is a nice world to be living in, we have got plenty of disposable income. This is welcomed as energy prices are high. But also allows us to invest in products and solutions that will help to lower our carbon footprint, which we really want to do.

Despite us leaving the EU in 2018, the Government kept focusing on the renewable energy target. The electricity sub-target was met on time in 2020 and the overall renewable energy target in 2022 [two years behind schedule]. Since then there has been a real focus on decarbonising heat and transport so we are on track to meet the 2050 carbon reduction target.

We follow Oscar and his family in 2040They have decided it is a priority to install new products to increase the efficiency of their home. Their smart meter is integrated in a whole-house smart energy system, which automatically shifts discretionary energy usage to times of lower cost. This also manages the charging of Oscar’s electric car to ensure he always has enough charge for his upcoming journey but at lowest cost. Around half of Oscar’s neighbours have replaced their gas boilers with low carbon alternatives. Air source heat pumps are the most popular choice.

Oscar’s car fits in well with his neighbours’ as a third of the town have also bought an electric car. His wife travels to work on a bus that is powered by compressed natural gas. Oscar’s employer also wants to reduce energy usage in the workplace. The building minimises its electricity consumption by utilising highly efficient light emitting diode (LED) light bulbs and heat pumps. The whole site is managed by an integrated energy management system. The company also aims to maximise the energy they produce themselves, so have installed solar panels on the roof and purchased a battery to store excess electricity for use later. They offer demand side services, flexing their electricity demand in return for payment.

In this scenario the Government and many across society would like to be progressing at pace towards a lower carbon world, but there isn’t necessarily the money available to do so. We’re generally not as well off as we could be because the economy is growing but quite slowly. It helps that electricity isn’t as costly for us as in Gone Green but gas does come at a premium.

Personally and within businesses, we are on top of how we are using energy and how we can use it more efficiently or differently. We are all doing what we can with the money we have, with the aim of having an impact in the longer term. It’s been a challenge over the years to reduce carbon but we know we need to get on with it if we are to meet the 2050 carbon reduction target.

We’re seeing that low carbon generation technologies are being rolled out, just not as fast as we’d like and is needed to meet the renewable and carbon reduction targets. We didn’t meet the retained renewable energy target until 2024 and it is looking unlikely the 2050 target will be met on time, despite our best efforts.

Life for Lily in 2040Despite her low income, Lily works hard to reduce her greenhouse gas emissions at home and at work. She considers replacing her car with a new electric model, but decides to wait for costs to come down before making such a large purchase. She shares her daily commute with a colleague to save money and reduceher impact on the environment. Lily decides to replace her ageing gas boiler and looks into many options. She chooses to install a hybrid heat pump, as it is a cost-effective step towards reducing emissions. Lily’s neighbours have a new-build house which is connected to the new district heating scheme, with biomass supplying their heat. Lily’s business partner has researched a number of investment opportunities for their business. They sign off plans to upgrade the company’s vehicle fleet to PHEVs as their low running cost makes the payback period acceptable. Additionally they install both loft and cavity wall insulation to reduce the heat energy escaping from the building.

In Consumer Power it is striking how much can be achieved by the momentum of consumers like us and businesses across the country, just with the support of local policies. People and businesses enjoy the amount of disposable income we have. The price of gas is low, and electricity is reasonable. The enthusiasm of various communities has seen really diverse groups of people coming together to fund and develop new approaches to things like generating and managing electricity. The availability of funding, and drive of the markets mean that we are now very well connected to our neighbouring electricity systems. And there has been significant investment in gas production, with offshore production being higher than anyone expected, and shale gas now keeping imports low.

We lost our way slightly on meeting the advisory 2020 renewable energy target, and met it in 2026. It’s looking likely we’ll miss the 2050 carbon reduction target too. The general move to heat pumps and electric cars has helped reduce emissions to some extent, but does mean electricity demand is high and wehaven’t done as well at decarbonising our electricity supply as we need.

Life for Jack in 2040Jack likes gadgets and buys products to improve his quality of life. He has a PHEV, air conditioning and appliances connected to the internet. He recently installed solar photovoltaics (PVs) to produce his own electricity. Additionally Jack has installed a micro-CHP unit to heat his home and provide further electricity. He has a home energy management system to ensure it is always at a comfortable temperature when he is at home.

Jack’s company has been investing lots of money to drive higher profits. The vehicle fleet has been upgraded to natural gas vehicles. Solar PV, along with a micro-CHP unit, produce electricity on site.

In this scenario it is obvious that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not a priority for the Government. They have stopped introducing policies that encourage low carbon technologies and generation. They have put in place support for traditional and indigenous energy supplies though. In this scenario we have little disposable income and the economic growth rate is low. We are thankful that the electricity price isn’t too high and the gas price isn’t too bad either.

After we left the EU in 2018, progress towards the 2020 renewable target tailed away. And it looks like the same has happened with the 2050 carbon reduction target.

We follow Phoebe’s life in 2040 Phoebe is cost conscious and focused on short-term savings. She has a limited disposable income and doesn’t want to make any big changes. She embraces new technologies if they can save her money.

Phoebe has no intention to change her home’s heating system. If it broke she would choose a like-for-like replacement, as the easiest and cheapest option. She picked the cheapest energy supplier and is not interested in green tariffs or products.

The company Phoebe works for runs as usual. It makes investments to drive business growth and maximise profits. Environmental impacts are given very little consideration.