saqarTvelos energetiksaqarTvelos energetika. aa..a ... Policy Gas 2012 Geo.pdf · gazisgazis...

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saqarTvelos energetiksaqarTvelos energetiksaqarTvelos energetiksaqarTvelos energetika.a.a.a. gazisgazisgazisgazis seqtoris ganviTarebisseqtoris ganviTarebisseqtoris ganviTarebisseqtoris ganviTarebis

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gamomcemloba “meridiani”gamomcemloba “meridiani”gamomcemloba “meridiani”gamomcemloba “meridiani” Tbilisi Tbilisi Tbilisi Tbilisi ---- 2012201220122012

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625.93.001625.93.001625.93.001625.93.001

T. goCitaSvili T. goCitaSvili T. goCitaSvili T. goCitaSvili ––prioritetebiprioritetebiprioritetebiprioritetebi

naSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod

gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis

naSromi naSromi naSromi naSromi momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze da da da da gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.

avtori avtori avtori avtori madlierebmadlierebmadlierebmadlierebkorpkorpkorpkorporaciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT

naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” mxardaWeriT mxardaWeriT mxardaWeriT mxardaWeriT ((((www.eecgeo.org

redaqtori: giorgi abulaSviliteqnikuri redaqtori: qeTevan goCitaSvili

© Teimuraz goCitaSvili, © energoefeqturobis centri © gamomcemloba “meridiani” ISBN -------------- daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3.

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–––– saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis

naSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodgazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis, bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis regionul struqturebSi integraciis xelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZi

momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris

ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis.umaRlesi saswavleblebis studentebisaTvis. masSi masSi masSi masSi mocemuli mocemuli mocemuli mocemuli debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.kompaniis oficialur pozicias.

madlierebmadlierebmadlierebmadlierebiT aRniSnavsiT aRniSnavsiT aRniSnavsiT aRniSnavs saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis oraciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa oraciis TanamSromelTa daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da

rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT rCevebis gaTvaliswinebiT naSromi naSromi naSromi naSromi mniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewnaSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos”

www.eecgeo.org; E-mail: [email protected]; Tel:

giorgi abulaSvili teqnikuri redaqtori: qeTevan goCitaSvili

Teimuraz goCitaSvili, energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelo

“meridiani”

daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi.daibeWda gamomcemloba “meridianis” stambaSi. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. Tbilisi, cemis q. # 3. E-mail: [email protected]

saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis saqarTvelos energetika. gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis

naSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZodnaSromSi ganxilulia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod,,,, bunebrivi bunebrivi bunebrivi bunebrivi gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da gazis bazris dRevandeli mdgomareoba, saprognozo Sefasebebi da ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebi. rekomendebulia qveynis qveynis qveynis qveynis

bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da bazris liberalizaciisa da xelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZixelSemwyobi RonisZiebebi.ebebi.ebebi.ebebi.

momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze momzadebulia xelmisawvdomi sajaro informaciis safuZvelze gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris gankuTvnilia saqarTvelos energetikis, kerZod gazis seqtoris

ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve ganviTarebis strategiul sakiTxebze momuSave specialistebisaTvis, agreTve mocemuli mocemuli mocemuli mocemuli informacia, informacia, informacia, informacia,

debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs debulebebi da rekomendaciebi mxolod avtoris pirad Sexedulebebs asaxavs da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo da ar gamoxatavs arc saqarTvelos mTavrobis da arc romelime saxelmwifo

saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da daxmarebis Sesaxeb, romelTa komentarebisa da

mniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewmniSvnelovnad daixvewaaaa. . . . naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos” naSromi gamocemulia “energoefeqturobis centri saqarTvelos”

; Tel: + 995 32 2474247)

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SinaarsiSinaarsiSinaarsiSinaarsi

reziume (reziume (reziume (reziume (inglisur enaze)inglisur enaze)inglisur enaze)inglisur enaze)

Sesavali 1. arsebuli mdgomareoba da ganviTarebis tendenciebi 1.1 energetikuli bazari 1.2 seqtoris instituciuri mowyoba da gazis bazari 1.3 energetikuli resursebis urTierTCanacvlebisa da importuli

saTbobis dazogvis potenciali 1.4 satransporto infrastruqtura

2. saprognozo Sefasebebi 2.1. moTxovnis prognozi 2.2. mowodebis wyaroebi 2.3. fasebis prognozi

3. gamowvevebi da problemebi 3.1. energetikuli usafrTxoeba 3.2. kanonmdebloba da regionuli integracia 3.3. mniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebi

4. analizis Sedegebi da rekomendaciebi

4

T. Gochitashvili. GEORGIAN ENERGY SECTOR. MAIN PRIORITIES OF GAS SECTOR DEVELOPMENT

BRIEF SUMMARY As a result of the intensive rehabilitation and construction works and restructuring of the sector during the recent years, as well as, in consequence of putting transnational and local main pipelines and high-voltage power transmission lines into operation, the problem of energy security of Georgia has mostly been resolved already. However, at the current, transition stage of development of the economy it is faced by a serious risk without rational planning of expensive imported fuel supply, consumption and their maximum replacement by local resources, acceleration of processes of further liberalization of the energy markets and integration into regional systems. Accordingly, strategic planning of development of the country’s energy, and particularly the gas sector, for the purpose of guaranteed satisfaction of demand of the population and various segments of economy with the quality fuel resources at affordable prices, acquires particular significance and is reviewed in the publication. The first chapter provides a short overview of development of the Georgian natural gas market, issues of institutional organization of the sector and potential of substitution of imported energy resources; also the main transportation infrastructure are discussed. The second chapter is dedicated to evaluation of demand on gas, supply sources and price forecasts. The current challenges of the Georgian energy sector, such as energy security, integration into regional structures and harmonization of the relevant legislation with EU standards, as well as identification of significant investment projects and bringing investments required for their implementation, are reviewed in the third chapter of the publication. The main development priorities of the Georgian natural gas sector and related sectors of economy are provided in the form of conclusions and recommendations. The publication is intended for the experts working on strategic issues of development of the Georgian energy, and particularly, the gas sector, as well as university students.

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SesavaliSesavaliSesavaliSesavali saqarTvelos ekonomikis ganviTarebisa da progresul saerTaSoriso

politikur da globalur ekonomikur struqturebTan integraciis dRevandel etapze gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens energetikuli usafrTxoebisa da mosaxleobisa da ekonomikis mzardi moTxovnis xelmisawvdomi resursebiT uzrunvelyofa.

bolo wlebis intensiuri aRdgeniTi da samSeneblo samuSaoebisa da dargis sawarmoTa restruturizaciis xarjze, agreTve transnacionaluri magistraluri milsadenebis da maRali Zabvis eleqtrogadamcemi xazebis amoqmedebis Sedegad, mniSvnelovanwilad ukve gadawyvetilia energetikuli usafrTxoebis problema. miuxedavad aRniSnulisa, dRevandel etapze, ZviradRirebuli importuli saTbobis mowodeba-moxmarebis racionaluri dagegmvisa da adgilobrivi resursebiT maTi maqsimaluri Canacvlebis, energetikuli bazris Semdgomi liberalizaciisa da regionul sistemebSi integraciis procesebis daCqarebis gareSe seriozuli safrTxis qveS dgeba qveynis ganviTareba zogadad. Sesabamisad, qveynis energetikis sxvadasxva mimarTulebis, maT Soris gazis seqtoris ganviTarebis strategiuli mimarTulebebis gansazRvra mosaxleobisa da meurneobis sxvadasxva dargis mzardi moTxovnis konkurentul fasiani da xarisxiani saTbobi resursebiT dakmayofilebis mizniT, sadReiso aqtualur problemas warmoadgens.

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1.1.1.1. arsebuli mdgomareoba daarsebuli mdgomareoba daarsebuli mdgomareoba daarsebuli mdgomareoba da ganviTarebis tendenciebiganviTarebis tendenciebiganviTarebis tendenciebiganviTarebis tendenciebi 1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1. energetikuli bazarienergetikuli bazarienergetikuli bazarienergetikuli bazari 90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi saqarTvelos TiToeuli mosaxle daaxloebiT

imdenive energias moixmarda, rasac msgavs geografiul-klimatur pirobebSi mcxovrebi evropeli (italiis, espaneTis, avstriis, portugaliis, saberZneTis, TurqeTis moqalaqeebi saSualod), Tumca produqciis erTeulis warmoebaze 3-4-jer ufro met xvedriT energias xarjavda da mTliani Sida produqtis 1 sul mosaxleze dayvanili sididiT mniSvnelovnad CamorCeboda saSualo evropul maCvenebels. energiis wliuri moxmareba saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovnad aris Semcirebuli gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebis dasawyisis monacemebTan SedarebiT.

saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli sistema sabWoTa periodSi kavkasiis erTiani regionuli sistemis nawili iyo, rac saSualebas iZleoda qveyanas Seevso sezonuri deficiti zamTarSi mezobeli respublikebidan da, piriqiT, miewodebina gazafxul-zafxulis periodSi hidrosadgurebze warmoebuli Warbi energia. garda amisa, qveyanas SesaZlebloba hqonda, mieRo praqtikulad SeuzRudavi raodenobis iafi navTobi da gazi. aseve, adgilobriv, dotaciur sabadoebze warmoebuli qvanaxSiris gasaReba, ZiriTadad, warmoebda sabWoTa kavSiris sxva respublikebSi SedarebiT maRalxarisxovan saTbobTan Serevis Semdeg. Sedegad, saqarTvelom memkvidreobiT miiRo energogamflangveli ekonomika, romlisTvisac sabazro urTierTobebisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli konkurencia, gasaRebis bazrebisaTvis zrunva da importirebul navTobproduqtebsa da bunebriv gazze realuri sabazro fasebis SemoReba damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg, damangreveli aRmoCnda. procesi daaCqara ruseTis destruqciuli moqmedebiTa da separatistuli reJimebisadmi mxardaWeriT ganpirobebulma myife politikurma mdgomareobam regionSi, rac aisaxa energoresursebis mowodebis SezRudvaSi, zogjer diversiul Sewyvetasa an fasebis mkveTr da araadekvatur zrdaSi.

garda amisa, qveynis energomomaragebis sistemis faqtobriv kolafsSi mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSa infrastruqturis gegmiuri momsaxurebisa da profilaqtikur-aRdgeniTi samuSaoebis Seusruleblobam, swori menejmentisa da finansuri kontrolis uunarobam, memkvidreobiT miRebuli, centridan marTuli ekonomikuri kavSirebis moSlam. energogamflangveli teqnologiebiT momuSave samrewvelo da sayofacxovrebo moxmarebis mkveTri Semcireba sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi seriozuli energetikuli krizisis ganmapirobebeli faqtori gaxda.Pgasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan dawyebuli energetikuli resursebis moxmarebis mkveTri Semcireba TiTqmis 15 weli gagrZelda, moxmarebis zrdis Seuqcevadi procesis aRdgenamde. naxazze naCvenebia pirveladi energetikuli resursebis jamuri miwodebis (TPES) cvalebadoba saqarTveloSi 1990-2011 wlebSi.

naxazi 1. pirveladi

ukanasknel wleb(daaxloebiT 10 mlrd kvtsTwliuri zrda 2009-2011 wlebSi wlidan eleqtroenergiis net gacvlis operaciebs ruseTTan, azerbaijanTan, somxeTTurqeTis gavliT ki evropaSic

saTbobi resursebis moxmareba eleqtroenergetikaSi minimumamdea Semcirebuli, rac ganpirobebulia prioritetis miniWebiT adgganaxlebad, kerZod,elenergiisaTvis, romlis wili 2008wlebis 55-60 %-is nacvlad (naxazi 2). hidroenergetikis wilis 90 %zRvris miRweva iyo gaTvaliswinebuliprogramiT 2012 wlisaTvismiznis miRwevis ararealurobas dRevandel etapze, ganaxlebadi energetikis klimatze specifikuri erTxel) qveynis ZiriTad hidrogeneraciis obieqtze gegmiuri saremonto-gamo, rac, Sesabamisad15 %-iani saSualo wliuri

1eleqtroenergiis gadayvanisaTvis tona navTobis eqvivalentSi (tne) miRebulia, rom erTi mln t navTobis utilizaciiT Tanamedrove Tboeleqtro sadgurze SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes 4000 gigavtsT eleqtroenergia. elenergiis garda balansi ar iTvaliswinebs droebiT okupirebul afxazeTisa dcxinvalis regionis momarageba pirveladi energoresursebiT 2 The EU and its Eastern Partners: Energy Needs and Future Prospects, European Parliament, DirectoratePolicies, Policy Department, 2012 3 “Basic Data and Directions for 20094 2011 wels Tbosadgurebze faqtiurad generirebuli elenergiis wilmarac, I da II kvartlis faqtiuri maCveneblebis gaTvaliswinebiT, savaraudod SenarCunebuli iqneba 2012 wlis prognoziTac

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pirveladi energetikuli resursebis jamuri miwodeba,

ukanasknel wlebSi mniSvnelovnad gaizarda eleqtroenergiis generacia10 mlrd kvtsT-mde 2011 wlisaTvis) da moxmarebac, romlis

2011 wlebSi saSualod 10 %-s gautolda.wlidan eleqtroenergiis net eqsportioria da awarmoebs gayidvis an

operaciebs ruseTTan, azerbaijanTan, somxeTTurqeTis gavliT ki evropaSic2.

saTbobi resursebis moxmareba eleqtroenergetikaSi minimumamdea Semcirebuli, rac ganpirobebulia prioritetis miniWebiT adg

, uxvi hidroenergetikuli resursebiT generirebul elenergiisaTvis, romlis wili 2008-2010 wlebSi 80-85 %

is nacvlad (naxazi 2). hidroenergetikis wilis 90 %iyo gaTvaliswinebuli seqtoris ganviTarebis moklevadiani

2012 wlisaTvis3, Tumca bolo 2 wlis praqtika adasturebs am miznis miRwevis ararealurobas dRevandel etapze, ganaxlebadi energetikis

uri damokidebulebisa da periodulad (is ZiriTad hidrogeneraciis obieqtze

-profilaqtikuri samuSaoebis Catarebis Sesabamisad, Tbogeneraciis mier warmoebuli energiis aranakleb

saSualo wliuri wilis aucileblobas ganapirobebs

gadayvanisaTvis tona navTobis eqvivalentSi (tne) miRebulia, rom erTi mln t

navTobis utilizaciiT Tanamedrove Tboeleqtro sadgurze SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes 4000 gigavtsT eleqtroenergia. elenergiis garda balansi ar iTvaliswinebs droebiT okupirebul afxazeTisa dcxinvalis regionis momarageba pirveladi energoresursebiT

The EU and its Eastern Partners: Energy Needs and Future Prospects, European Parliament, Directorate

“Basic Data and Directions for 2009-2012”, Government Resolution # 107, 18.04.2008 Tbosadgurebze faqtiurad generirebuli elenergiis wilma

rac, I da II kvartlis faqtiuri maCveneblebis gaTvaliswinebiT, savaraudod SenarCunebuli iqneba 2012

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

naxSiri da koqsi navTobproduqtebi

gazi eletroenergia (hesi)

geoTermia SeSa da bionarCenebi

eletroenergiis eqsporti

jamuri miwodeba, ktne1

eleqtroenergiis generacia wlisaTvis) da moxmarebac, romlis

s gautolda. saqarTvelo 2007 eqsportioria da awarmoebs gayidvis an

operaciebs ruseTTan, azerbaijanTan, somxeTsa da TurqeTTan,

saTbobi resursebis moxmareba eleqtroenergetikaSi minimumamdea Semcirebuli, rac ganpirobebulia prioritetis miniWebiT adgilobriv

uxvi hidroenergetikuli resursebiT generirebul 85 %-mde gaizarda 90-iani

is nacvlad (naxazi 2). hidroenergetikis wilis 90 %-iani seqtoris ganviTarebis moklevadiani

, Tumca bolo 2 wlis praqtika adasturebs am miznis miRwevis ararealurobas dRevandel etapze, ganaxlebadi energetikis

da periodulad (4-5 weliwadSi is ZiriTad hidrogeneraciis obieqtze – enguris hesze

profilaqtikuri samuSaoebis Catarebis aucileblobis warmoebuli energiis aranakleb

ganapirobebs4.

gadayvanisaTvis tona navTobis eqvivalentSi (tne) miRebulia, rom erTi mln t navTobis utilizaciiT Tanamedrove Tboeleqtro sadgurze SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes 4000 gigavtsT eleqtroenergia. elenergiis garda balansi ar iTvaliswinebs droebiT okupirebul afxazeTisa da

The EU and its Eastern Partners: Energy Needs and Future Prospects, European Parliament, Directorate-General for External

balansSi 20 %-s gadaaWarba, rac, I da II kvartlis faqtiuri maCveneblebis gaTvaliswinebiT, savaraudod SenarCunebuli iqneba 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

navTobproduqtebi

eletroenergia (hesi)

SeSa da bionarCenebi

Fnaxazi 2. eleqtro industriis, komerciuli da sayofacxovrebo seqtorebis moTxovnis

dasakmayofileblad qveyanaSi navTobproduqtebi moixmareba.

saqarTveloSi erTekologiurad usafrTxo resursis, gasuli dekadis dasawyisis ekonomikis gamococxlebis periodidan, 2008wlebis krizisuli periodis garda, zrdadi tendenciiT xasiaTdeba 3), Tumca 90-iani wlebis dasawyisis pikuri 51.8-2 mlrd m3-mdea Semcirebuli.

naxazi 3. bunebrivi gazis moxmareba seqtorebis mixedviT, mln m

gazis miwodeba

energogamflangveli teqnologiebiT momuSave sawarmoebis likvidaciasTan da sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi energoefeqturi gaTbobis sistemebis danergvasTan erTad, gazis moxmarebis wilis mniSvnelovani Semcirebaa elenergiis generaciaSi,

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1990

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2008

8

eleqtroenergiis generaciis struqtura (teravtsT

industriis, komerciuli da sayofacxovrebo seqtorebis moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad qveyanaSi ZiriTadad importirebuli

da adgilobrivi bioresursebi (

Si erT-erTi yvelaze iafi, moxmarebisaTvis martivi da ekologiurad usafrTxo resursis, bunebrivi gazis gasuli dekadis dasawyisis ekonomikis gamococxlebis periodidan, 2008wlebis krizisuli periodis garda, zrdadi tendenciiT xasiaTdeba

iani wlebis dasawyisis pikuri 5-6 mlrd mSemcirebuli.

naxazi 3. bunebrivi gazis moxmareba seqtorebis mixedviT, mln m(2012 w. – saprognozo monacemi)

miwodeba-moxmarebis Semcirebis ZiriTadi mizezebi, energogamflangveli teqnologiebiT momuSave sawarmoebis likvidaciasTan

sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi energoefeqturi gaTbobis sistemebis danergvasTan erTad, gazis moxmarebis wilis mniSvnelovani Semcirebaa

nergiis generaciaSi, adgilobriv hidroresursebze warmoebuli

1995 2000 2005

თესი (გაზი) თესი (ნავთობი) ჰესი

2009 2010 2011

sayofacxovrebo seqtori

eleqtrogeneracia

komerciuli seqtori

energiis generaciis struqtura (teravtsT-ebSi)

industriis, komerciuli da sayofacxovrebo seqtorebis moTxovnis ZiriTadad importirebuli gazi,

da adgilobrivi bioresursebi (ZiriTadad SeSa)

erTi yvelaze iafi, moxmarebisaTvis martivi da gazis miwodeba-moxmareba

gasuli dekadis dasawyisis ekonomikis gamococxlebis periodidan, 2008-2010 wlebis krizisuli periodis garda, zrdadi tendenciiT xasiaTdeba (naxazi

m3-dan 2011-2012 wlebSi

naxazi 3. bunebrivi gazis moxmareba seqtorebis mixedviT, mln m3/w

moxmarebis Semcirebis ZiriTadi mizezebi, energogamflangveli teqnologiebiT momuSave sawarmoebis likvidaciasTan

sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi energoefeqturi gaTbobis sistemebis danergvasTan erTad, gazis moxmarebis wilis mniSvnelovani Semcirebaa

adgilobriv hidroresursebze warmoebuli

2010 2011

ჰესი

2011 2012 (pr)

9

eleqtroenergiis dominirebis gamo. garda amisa, minimumamde aris Semcirebuli transportirebis dros gazis teqnologiuri danakargebic, rac miRweuli iqna magistralur milsadenebze Catarebuli sareabilitacio-rekonstruqciis samuSaoebisa da marTvisa da aRricxvianobis Tanamedrove sistemebis danergvis saSualebiT (danakargebi saqarTvelos magistraluri milsadenebis sistemaSi erT-erTi yvelaze dabalia yofili sabWoTa kavSiris respublikebis, agreTve aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis sistemebTan SedarebiT).

navTobproduqtebis jamuri wliuri moxmareba saqarTveloSi ukanasknel periodSi 800-950 aTasi tne Seadgenda. navTobproduqtebi saqarTveloSi ar iwarmoeba da qveynis moTxovna mTlianad importirebuli resursiT kmayofildeba. nedli navTobisa da navTobproduqtebis bazari mTlianad aris liberalizebuli da fasebic metnaklebad asaxavs saerTaSoriso bazris tendenciebs. amasTan, unda aRiniSnos, rom fasebi navTobproduqtebze, gansakuTrebiT sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi gamoyenebul Txevad navTobis gazze (LPG), saqarTveloSi sakmaod maRalia bunebrivi gazis fasTan, agreTve sabazro fasebTan SedarebiT mezobel qveynebSi, rac SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos arajansaRi konkurenciis pirobebTan adgilobriv bazarze, maT Soris, sarealizacio fasebze farul (kartelur) SeTanxmebebze, bazris segmentebis danawilebasa da eqskluziur uflebebze, dominanti momwodeblis arakeTilsindisier qmedebaze, konkurenciisaTvis saziano Serwymebsa da aqtivebis SeZenebze da a.S5.

navTobproduqtebis fasebis optimizaciis mniSvnelovan potencials Seicavs adgilobriv mopovebuli navTobis gadamamuSavebeli mcire simZlavris warmoebis organizacia (aRdgena Tanamedrove, ekologiurad sufTa da dasrulebuli teqnologiuri ciklis realizaciiT). amisaTvis, pirvel rigSi, aucilebelia “navTobisa da gazis Sesaxeb” kanonSi calsaxad ganisazRvros nebadarTuli navTobis gadamuSavebisa da navTobproduqtebis terminebi6 da moixsnas amgvarad warmoSobili barieri navTobgadamuSavebis adgilobrivi potencialis realizaciisaTvis jansaR konkurentul garemoSi.

saqarTvelos energetikuli balansis formirebaSi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs adgilobrivi bioresursebi, ZiriTadad SeSa. saeqsperto SefasebiT, SeSis Wris realuri moculoba sxva energetikuli daniSnulebis aRuricxav saTbob resursebTan erTad (xe-tyis gadamuSavebisa da sasoflo sameurneo warmoebis narCenebi, wiva, torfi da sxva) wliurad daaxloebiT 400 aTas tne-s aRwevs.

ukanasknel xuT weliwadSi qvanaxSiris moxmareba saqarTveloSi 23 aTasidan 360 aTas tonamde gaizarda, amasTan, importuli naxSiri mTlianad adgilobrivi produqciiT aris Canacvlebuli. SesaZloa naxSiris mopovebis zrda uaxloesi 2-3 wlis ganmavlobaSi 450 aTas, dekadis bolosaTvis ki 600 aTas tonamde weliwadSi.7

5wyaro: Einar Hope, Optimal Composition and regulation of a liberalized electricity system(Presentation), ISET, November 8, 2012 6 saqarTvelos kanoni “navTobisa da gazis Sesaxeb”, muxli b, punqti 2 7 wyaro: tyibuli-Saoris sabados naxSirmompovebeli Saxtebis menejmenti

10

qvanaxSiri, ZiriTadad, gamoiyeneba cementis warmoebasa da metalurgiaSi, SedarebiT mcire raodenobiT ki 13,5 mgvt dadgmuli simZlavris Tboeleqtrosadguris momaragebisaTvis, sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi, sarkinigzo transportsa da somxeTSi eqsportisaTvis. perspeqtivaSic qvanaxSiris gamoyeneba, ZiriTadad dakavSirebulia samrewvelo seqtoris, kerZod saSen masalaTa warmoebis da metalurgiis moTxovnebis dasakmayofileblad.

1.2.1.2.1.2.1.2. seqtoris instituciuri seqtoris instituciuri seqtoris instituciuri seqtoris instituciuri mowyobamowyobamowyobamowyoba da gazis bazarida gazis bazarida gazis bazarida gazis bazari qveynis energetikuli politikis, maT Soris gazis seqtoris,

ganviTarebis strategiis SemuSaveba da ganxorcielebis kontroli saqarTvelos energetikis saministros upirvelesi movaleobaa. saqarTvelos energetikisa da wyalmomaragebis maregulirebeli erovnuli komisia (sewmek) ki axorcielebs seqtoris regulirebas saTanado sakanonmdeblo aqtebisa da wesebis meSveobiT.

energetikis saministros mier SemuSavebuli sabazro wesebiT aris gansazRvruli gazis miwodebisa da satransporto sistemasTan mierTebis wesebi, agreTve, teqnikuri standartebi. saministro adgens bunebrivi gazis wliur balanssac yoveli kalendaruli wlis dasawyisSi, awarmoebs misi Sesrulebisa da teqnikuri normebis monitorings.

gazis bazarze 2007 wlis agvistomde yvela ZiriTadi saqmianobis (sabiTumo da sacalo miwodeba, transportireba da distribucia) tarifebi regulirdeboda erovnuli maregulirebeli komisiis mier. bazris nawilobrivi deregulaciis Semdeg, 2007 wlidan, gazis sabiTumo miwodeba (importi, warmoeba, agreTve tranziti) regulirdeba sabazro meqanizmebiT, xolo maregulirebel organos daevala transportirebis da distribuciis bunebrivad monopoluri saqmianobis, agreTve sayofacxovrebo momxmarebelTa da energogeneraciis seqtorisaTvis sacalo miwodebis fasebis dadgena. sewmekis mier dadgenilia agreTve miwodebis zRvruli tarifebi zogierTi im sacalo momxmareblisaTvis, romlebic deregulirebas daeqvemdebarnen.

bunebrivi gazis seqtorSi transportirebisa da distribuciis saqmianobaTa warmoeba dasaSvebia mxolod erovnuli maregulirebeli organos mier gacemuli licenziis safuZvelze.

saxelmwifos kuTvnili saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporacia (sngk), iseve rogorc saqarTvelos gazis transportirebis kompania (gtk) mniSvnelovan rols ^TamaSobs gazis bazarze. sngk aris qveynis gazis magistraluri milsadenebis sistemis mflobeli. igi axorcielebs bazarze samxreT kavkasiuri milsadeniT (skm) tranzitis safasurad miRebuli opciuri da damatebiTi, agreTve, gtk-s mier rusuli gazis tranzitis safasurad miRebuli gazis miwodebas bazris regulirebadi segmentis sayofacxovrebo momxmareblebisa da energogeneraciis obieqtebisaTvis, ”sokar gaz eqsport-importis” meSveobiT. sngk, agreTve uzrunvelyofs adgilobriv warmoebuli gazis miwodebas bazris konkurentuli segmentisaTvis auqcionebis meSveobiT.

gtk transportirebis licenziantia da axorcielebs magistraluri milsadenebis momsaxurebasa da operirebassomxeTSi da awvdis sngkdadebuli saijaro da yidvauzrunvelyofs gazis nakadis transportirebas momwodeblebidan Siga bazris sadistribucio qselebamde da pirdapir moenergetikisa” da ”ji-

gazis mowodebas (imports) adgilobriv bazarze, rogorc regulirebad segmentSi, ise komerciuli momxmareblebisaTvis, awarmoebsazerbaijanis navTobis saxelmwifo kompania ”sokari” Tavisi Svilobili ”sokar gaz eqsport-importis” meSveobiT.

naxazi 4. gazis

bunebrivi gazis seqtori

sistemis garda, praqtikula

saxelmwifoebis kuTvnili)

kuTvnili sadistrubucio

kompania ”yaztransgazis” kuTvnili ”yaztransgaz Tbilisi”, akontroleben

Siga sacalo bazris ZiriTad nawils da sxva kerZo kompaniebTan (”visol

petroleumi”, saqarTvelos energetikis saerTaSoriso kompania

erTad, awarmoeben gazis distribuciasa da sacalo miwodebas

momxmareblebisaTvis.

qveynis jamuri moxmarebis 60

sayofacxovrebo da energogeneraciis seqtoris moTxovnis dakmayofileba

stabiluri tarifebis SenarCunebis pirobiT

azerbaijanTan SeTanxmebuli samTavrobo memorandumiTa da mis safuZvelze

“sokarTan” da mis Svilobi

grZelvadiani, kompleqsuri xelSekrulebis

pirobebi uzrunvelyofs gazis mowodebasa da moxmarebas Soris mkveTri

sezonuri disbalansis ganeitralebas

miwodebis mdgeneli sayofacxovrebo seqtoris, energogeneraciis

obieqtebisa da qarTul

11

gtk transportirebis licenziantia da axorcielebs magistraluri milsadenebis momsaxurebasa da operirebas, agreTve rusuli gazi

s sngk-s tranzitis safasurad miRebul gazsdadebuli saijaro da yidva-gayidvis xelSekrulebebis safuZvelze. uzrunvelyofs gazis nakadis transportirebas momwodeblebidan Siga bazris sadistribucio qselebamde da pirdapir momxmareblebamde

-paueris” Tbogeneraciis obieqtebamde)gazis mowodebas (imports) adgilobriv bazarze, rogorc regulirebad

segmentSi, ise komerciuli momxmareblebisaTvis, awarmoebsazerbaijanis navTobis saxelmwifo kompania ”sokari” Tavisi Svilobili

importis” meSveobiT.

gazis nakadi saqarTvelos energetikul bazarze

bunebrivi gazis seqtoris sawarmoebi, magistraluri gazsadenebis

sistemis garda, praqtikulad, mTlianad privatizebulia da

saxelmwifoebis kuTvnili) kompaniebis mier kontroldeba

sadistrubucio kompaniebis meSveobiT da yazaxeTis saxelmwifo



i”, saqarTvelos energetikis saerTaSoriso kompania


momxmareblebisaTvis.

qveynis jamuri moxmarebis 60-70 %, kerZod, bazris regulirebadi

sayofacxovrebo da energogeneraciis seqtoris moTxovnis dakmayofileba

stabiluri tarifebis SenarCunebis pirobiT, mTlianad


“sokarTan” da mis Svilobil kompaniasTan dadebuli gazis mowodebis

grZelvadiani, kompleqsuri xelSekrulebis pirobebiT


sezonuri disbalansis ganeitralebasac. gansazRvrulia tarifSi sabiTumo


obieqtebisa da qarTul-azerbaijanuli mxaris mier erToblivad

gtk transportirebis licenziantia da axorcielebs magistraluri agreTve rusuli gazis tranzits

s tranzitis safasurad miRebul gazs, masTan gayidvis xelSekrulebebis safuZvelze. gtk

uzrunvelyofs gazis nakadis transportirebas momwodeblebidan Siga mxmareblebamde (”mtkvari

paueris” Tbogeneraciis obieqtebamde). gazis mowodebas (imports) adgilobriv bazarze, rogorc regulirebad

segmentSi, ise komerciuli momxmareblebisaTvis, awarmoebs, agreTve, azerbaijanis navTobis saxelmwifo kompania ”sokari” Tavisi Svilobili

saqarTvelos energetikul bazarze

, magistraluri gazsadenebis

privatizebulia da kerZo (an sxva

ier kontroldeba. ”sokari”, misi

kompaniebis meSveobiT da yazaxeTis saxelmwifo



i”, saqarTvelos energetikis saerTaSoriso kompania - ssek)


bazris regulirebadi

sayofacxovrebo da energogeneraciis seqtoris moTxovnis dakmayofileba,

mTlianad uzrunvelyofilia


l kompaniasTan dadebuli gazis mowodebis

pirobebiT. xelSekrulebis


gansazRvrulia tarifSi sabiTumo


azerbaijanuli mxaris mier erToblivad

12

nominirebuli pir(eb)isaTvis (sawarmosaTvis) mimdinare dekadis

ganmavlobaSi.

bazris danarCeni, jamuri moxmarebis daaxloebiT 35 % ki komerciuli

seqtorisTvisaa gankuTvnili da am nawilze fasebi deregulirebulia –

bolo momxmareblebs SeuZliaT SeirCion momwodebeli da SeaTanxmon gazis

tarifi.

urTierTobebi momwodeblebs, transportirebisa da distribuciis

licenziantebsa da pirdapir momxmareblebs Soris regulirdeba bunebrivi

gazis bazris wesebiT. gazis yidva-gayidvisa da transportireba-

distribuciis saqmianobaTa proceduruli sakiTxebis gansazRvra

gaTvaliswinebulia mxareebs Soris dadebuli or- an mravalmxrivi

xelSekrulebebis safuZvelze.

evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankis (EBRD) mier

Catarebuli SedarebiTi analizis safuZvelze dadgenilia saqarTvelos

energetikuli bazrebis Sefasebis fardobiTi maxasiaTeblebi8. kriteriumad

aRebulia magaliTebi saukeTeso saerTaSoriso praqtikidan, rasac

miniWebuli aqvs erTi qula. saqarTvelos gazis seqtorisaTvis

maxasiaTebeli parametrebi Sefasebulia Semdegnairad: maregulirebeli

organos damoukidebloba da misi uflebamosileba - daaxloebiT 0,85;

bazris struqtura - 0,37; daSveba qselebze - 0,66; tarifis struqtura – 0,91;

sazogadoebrivi momsaxurebis valdebulebebi – 0,52; gamWvirvaloba – 0,57;

kerZo seqtoris CarTuloba investirebaSi – 0,55 qula. saerTo jamSi

saqarTvelos gazis seqtoris institucionaluri mowyobis, bazris

struqturisa da mesame mxaris daSvebis, tarifebis struqturisa da

sazogadoebrivi momsaxurebis valdebulebebisa da gamWvirvalobisa da

kerZo seqtoris CarTulobis mixedviT qveynis komleqsuri Sefasebis

maCvenebeli daaxloebiT 0,67 quliT Sefasda.

analizi, maT Soris Sedareba evropis energetikuli Tanamegobrobis

wevri da damkvirvebeli qveynebis Sesabamis maCveneblebTan, aCvenebs, rom

gansakuTrebuli Zalisxmeva aris saWiro bazris struqturis,

sazogadoebrivi momsaxurebis valdebulebebis da gamWvirvalobis mkveTri

gaumjobesebis mizniT. rac Seexeba kerZo seqtoris CarTulobas

sainvesticio saqmianobaSi, am mimarTulebiT mdgomareoba mniSvnelovnad

aris gamosworebuli, kvlevebis Catarebis periodSi (2009 w) arsebul

mdgomareobasTan SedarebiT.

8 Georgia Country Profile (2009). www.ebrd.com/downloads/legal/irc/countries/georgia.pdf

13

1.3.1.3.1.3.1.3. energetikuli resursebis urTierTenergetikuli resursebis urTierTenergetikuli resursebis urTierTenergetikuli resursebis urTierTCanacvlebisCanacvlebisCanacvlebisCanacvlebisa da importuli a da importuli a da importuli a da importuli saTbobissaTbobissaTbobissaTbobis dazogvisdazogvisdazogvisdazogvis potencialipotencialipotencialipotenciali

1.3.1.1.3.1.1.3.1.1.3.1. navnavnavnavTTTTobisa da obisa da obisa da obisa da gazis gazis gazis gazis gadamuSavebis gadamuSavebis gadamuSavebis gadamuSavebis produqtebiproduqtebiproduqtebiproduqtebi energiis avtonomiuri wyaroebis eqspluataciaze dafuZnebuli

decentralizebuli meurneobriobis ganviTareba saqarTvelos maRalmTiani, Znelad misadgomi regionebis ekonomikuri zrdisa da mdgradi funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofis erT-erTi efeqturi saSualebaa.... aseTi gadawyvetis erT-erTi xelSemwyobi varianti SeiZleba gaxdes ZviradRirebuli da ekonomikurad gaumarTlebeli milsadenebis mSeneblobis nacvlad aRniSnuli regionebis momarageba gazis transformaciis produqtebiT (gaTxevadebuli - LNG da kompresirebuli gazi - CNG) an propan-butaniT (navTobis Txevadi gazi - LPG).

kompresirebuli bunebrivi gaziT ZviradRirebuli navTobproduqtebis Canacvleba satransporto seqtorSi xels Seuwyobs fasebis daregulirebas da uzrunvelyofs mavne gamonabolqvis daaxloebiT 30 %-iT Semcirebas. navTobproduqtebis kompresirebuli gaziT Canacvlebis kargi magaliTia somxeTi, sadac bazarze konkurentuli garemos Seqmnisa da saTbobze danaxarjebis mniSvnelovani Semcirebis mizniT, saavtomobilo parkis daaxloebiT 3/4 nawili SedarebiT iaf kompresirebul gazze aris gadayvanili.

energiaze xvedriTi danaxarjebis Semcirebis gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani potenciali arsebobs gazsadenebiT daufaravi regionebis sayofacxovrebo momxmareblis tradiciuli Txevadi gaziT (LPG) momaragebis sferoSi. dReisaTvis LPG fasi adgilobriv bazarze araadekvaturad maRalia (2000 aSS dolari/t-ze meti) mimdebare regionebis sabazro fasebTan SedarebiT. ase, magaliTad, ruseTsa da centraluri aziis navTobisa da gazis mwarmoebel qveynebSi LPG fasi daaxloebiT 300 aSS dolari/t Seadgens9. gasagebi mizezebis gamo, aseTi fasi saqarTveloSi miuRwevadia, magram igi iZleva warmodgenas produqciis TviTRirebulebaze.

Argus Media Ltd-s informaciiT, LPG fasi xmelTaSua zRvis regionul bazarze (Coasters fob Med) 879-917 aSS dolari/t farglebSi cvalebadobs10. Platts-is informaciiT, 2011 wlis zafxulSi propanisa da butanis sabiTumo fasi evropul bazarze daaxloebiT 800-950 aSS dolari/t Seadgenda11.

balkaneTisa da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis (bosnia da hercogovina, bulgareTi, xorvatia, estoneTi, latvia, litva, makedonia, montenegro, poloneTi, rumineTi, serbeTi, slovakeTi, slovenia) bazrebze LPG sacalo gayidvebis fasi saSualod 1620 aSS dolari/t Seadgens12. maqsimaluri fasi fiqsirdeba estoneTsa da montenegroSi, daaxloebiT 1820 aSS dolari/t, minimaluri ki latviasa da xorvatiaSi, saSualod 1345 aSS dolari/t. energetikis saerTaSoriso saagentos (IEA) cnobiT13 ruseTidan da kaspiis

9 http:www.karaganda-region.kz/rus/news rk/56429/ (Постановление Правительства РК, 27.06.2012, № 980); (Рост ефрифов на сжиженный газ в России замедлится вдвое). 10 www.argusmedia.com LPG World Prices monthly, March, 2011 11 Platts, LPGaswire, July, 2011 Issues 12 www.golpg.eu, LPG prices across Europe 13 IEA Statistics, Oil Information, 2012

14

regionidan 2009-2011 wlebSi SedarebiT didi raodenobiT LPG miewoda evrokavSiris Semdeg qveynebs: CexeTs, estoneTs, safrangeTs, ungreTs, italias, niderlandebs, poloneTs, slovakeTsa da slovenias, agreTve, Savi zRvis regionis qveynebs, maT Soris nawili, saqarTvelos rkinigzisa da portebis gavliT. LPG saSualo fasma evrokavSiris aRniSnuli qveynebis satransporto seqtoris sacalo momxmareblebisaTvis daaxloebiT 1780 aSS dolari/t Seadgina.

rogorc analizi aCvenebs, LPG fasi saqarTveloSi erT-erTi yvelaze maRalia, miuxedavad ZiriTad momwodebel qveynebTan misi siaxlovisa da, Sesabamisad, satransporto danaxarjebis simcirisa, msoflios sxva momxmarebeli regionebis qveynebTan SedarebiT. savaraudoa, rom fasebis aseTi zrda ganpirobebulia arakonkurentuli bazris an mowodebis organizaciis araracionaluri dagegmvisa da menejmentis gamo. LPG fasebis daregulireba konkurenciis uzrunvelyofiTa da mowodebis swori organizaciis dagegmvis xelSewyobiT saxelmwifos erT-erT umniSvnelovanes funqciad da pasuxismgeblobad rCeba, miuxedavad Sesabamisi bazris deregulirebisa14. amasTan erTad, mTiani da Znelad misadgomi regionebisaTvis saTbobis misawodeblad gankuTvnili satransporto gazsadenebis mSeneblobisa da eqsplutaciisaTvis saWiro danaxarjebi, LPG miwodebis swori organizaciis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes mosaxleobis subsidirebisaTvis, braziliis msgavsad, sadac socialurad daucvel momxmareblebs saxelmwifo afinansebs specialurad LPG SesaZeni daxmarebis fondidan15.

1.3.2.1.3.2.1.3.2.1.3.2. energoefeqturobaenergoefeqturobaenergoefeqturobaenergoefeqturoba saqarTveloSi jer kidev dabalia energoefeqturobis potencialis

realizaciis xelSemwyobi RonisZiebebis dagegmvis, sakanonmdeblo da finansuri uzrunvelyofis meqanizmebis qmediToba. amave dros, am mimarTulebiT CamorCenis aRmofxvra evropis ganviTarebuli ekonomikis qveynebTan SedarebiT, energiis dazogvisa da adgilobrivi produqciis konkurentunarianobis amaRlebis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani instrumenti SeiZleba gaxdes (rogorc cnobilia, zogadad, danaxarji energoefeqturobis gaumjobesebaze uzrunvelyofs dazogili resursis Rirebulebis daaxloebiT 25%-is Rirebulebis ekonomias16). Sesabamisad, energoefeqturi saojaxo moxmarebis nivTebisa da gaTbobis sistemebis danergviT, Tboizolaciis savaldebulo samSeneblo normebis SemoRebiT sayofacxovrebo da komerciul seqtorebSi17 SeiZleba gazis moxmarebis mniSvnelovani (daaxloebiT 40 %-mde) Semcireba iqnes uzrunvelyofili.

14g.muxigulaSvili, m.margvelaSvili, konkurencia da monopolia Siga energetikul bazarze 15 wyaro: Liquified Petroleum Gas, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_petroleum_gas 16 Energy Strategy of the Energy Community, 2012 17g.sadaRaSvili, m.sadaRaSvili. sacxovrebeli Senobebis Tboteqnikuri maCveneblebis kavSiri saqarTvelos energetikul problemebTan, Tbilisi, 2008

15

1.3.1.3.1.3.1.3.3333. ganaxlebadi resursebi. ganaxlebadi resursebi. ganaxlebadi resursebi. ganaxlebadi resursebi saqarTvelo mdidaria aratradiciuli, ganaxlebadi energetikuli

resursebiT. maTi farTo masStabiani aTvisebis umTavres stimulators warmoadgens wiaRiseuli saTbobis, ZiriTadad, importirebuli gazis gamoyenebis mniSvnelovani Semcireba.

qveyanaSi dRemde praqtikulad auTvisebelia qaris energopotenciali.

winaswari Sefasebebi aCvenebs, rom qaris energiis potencialiს aTvisebis SemTxvevaSi mxolod yvelaze perspeqtiul ubnebze (rionisa da mtkvris auzebi, mTa sabueTi, faravnis tba da a.S.) SesaZlebelia daaxloebiT 2000 mgvt-mde dadgmuli simZlavris qaris eleqtrosadgurebis mowyoba. amasTan, qaris energiis gamoyeneba, romelic klimatur pirobebTan dakavSirebuli arastabilurobiT xasiaTdeba, aucileblad moiTxovs energiis warmoebis dublirebas. evropuli gamocdileba aCvenebs, rom qaris energiis darezerveba gaziT warmoebuli elenergiiT warmoadgens yvelaze ekonomiur da moqnil saSualebas.18 aseTi kombinacia saSualebas iZleva daizogos ZviradRirebuli saTbobi wlis yvelaze kritikul periodSi, radgan qaris ZiriTadi potenciali zamTris TveebSi realizdeba. saqarTvelos pirobebSi qaris energetika mimzidvelia sxva kuTxiTac, mas SeuZlia Caanacvlos hesebze generirebuli elenergiis deficiti zamTris sezonSi, rodesac hesebi wylis resursebis deficits ganicdian, xolo eleqtroenergiaze moTxovna maqsimaluria.

saqarTvelos teritoriaze aRricxulia geoTermuli wylis 250-mde bunebrivi da xelovnuri (WaburRilebidan miRebuli) wyaro19. Sefasebis Tanaxmad Tbilisis, kindRa-moqvi-ozurgeTis, zugdidi-caiSis, xobis, qvalonis, vanis, samtrediis daZiebuli sabadoebisaTvis, Termuli wylebidan miRebuli siTbos Rirebuleba ufro naklebia vidre tradiciuli, bunebrivi gazis wviT miRebuli siTbos Rirebuleba20.

saqarTvelos umetes teritoriaze mzis wliuri naTeba 1800-2600 sT-s Soris, radiaciis sidide ki regionebis mixedviT 1250-1800 kvtsT/m2 diapazonSi cvalebadobs. mzis energiis gamoyeneba gansakuTrebiT xelsayrelia koleqtoruli koncentratorebis gamoyenebiT dabali potencialis siTbos (<100 oC) warmoebisaTvis, maT Soris pirvel yovlisa sacxovrebeli, samrewvelo da sakurorto-rekreaciuli zonebis cxelwyalmomaragebisaTvis, agreTve soflis meurneobis produqtebis Termuli gadamuSavebis sistemebisaTvis, zafxulis sezonuri datvirTvis gaTvaliswinebiT, rac mniSvnelovani raodenobis bunebrivi airis dazogvas uzrunvelyofs.

biomasa, kerZod, SeSa, farTod gamoiyeneba sasoflo regionebSi gaTbobisa da sxva sayofacxovrebo saWiroebisaTvis. aucilebelia SemuSavdes SeSis maRalefeqturi utilizaciis teqnologiebis realizaciis xelSemwyobi sakanonmdeblo da finansuri mxardaWeris RonisZiebebi, maT

18 Check against delivery. Industry Advisory Panel Communication to the Energy Charter Conference (Draft), Brussels, October, 2012 19G.Buachidze, O. Vardigorelli, N.Tsertsvadze. Country Update from Georgia. Proceedings World Geothermal Congress 2000, Tokyo, 2000 and Thermal Waters of Georgia, Georgian Geothermal Associatiion, 1998 20 Georgia. II National Report for Climate Change Convention, Tbilisi, 2008

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Soris saerTaSoriso donori organizaciebis TanamonawileobiT.21 garda SeSisa, sasoflo regionebis macxovrebelTa saTbobiT nawilobrivi uzrunvelyofisaTvis, SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes narCeni biomasis gadamuSavebiT miRebuli dabalkaloriuli biogazi.

biomasis gadamuSavebisa da SeSis gamoyenebis Tanamedrove enegoefeqturi teqnologiebis implementaciiT, agreTve sxva aratradiciuli ganaxlebadi energoresursebis gamoyenebiT SeiZleba uaxloes ramdenime weliwadSi, damatebiT daaxloebiT 70-100 mln m3/w importuli bunebrivi airi daizogos da gadaiWras tyis ukontrolo CexvasTan dakavSirebuli mwvave ekologiuri problemebi. evrokavSiris rekomendaciiT, saqarTvelom unda uzrunvelyos energoefeqturobis RonisZiebebisa da aratradiciuli ganaxlebadi energiis wyaroebis gamoyeneba, sadac es mizanSewonilia da Sesabamisi politikis ganxorcieleba22.

ganaxlebadi energetikis aratradiciuli resursebis aTvisebisa da energodamzog RonisZiebaTa realizaciis proteqcionistuli saxelmwifo politika saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi aprobirebuli meTodia. aseTi politika, agreTve Sesaferis pirobebSi bunebrivi gazis alternatuli saTbobiT Canacvlebis swori dagegmva da uzrunvelyofa, arsebuli potencialisa da saerTaSoriso tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saxelmwifos finansuri danaxarjebis minimizaciisa da saTbobi resursebis, kerZod, ZviradRirebuli importuli bunebrivi gazis, mniSvnelovani dazogvis saSualebas iZleva.

1.4.1.4.1.4.1.4. satransporto satransporto satransporto satransporto infrastruqturinfrastruqturinfrastruqturinfrastruqturaaaa energetikuli usafrTxoebis ZiriTadi principebi resursebiT

uzrunvelyofis mizniT iTvaliswinebs:

• energetikuli resursebis sagangebo (saxelmwifos an industriis kuTvnili) rezervebis arsebobas23;

• mowodebis wyaroebisa da marSrutebis diversifikacias;

• axali satransporto infrastruqturis, maT Soris sxvadasxva sistemis damakavSirebeli milsadenebis (interkoneqtorebis), mSeneblobas;

• winaswar SeTanxmebul uwyveti momaragebis kontraqtebs momwodebelTan, socialurad mowyvladi momxmareblebis gazmomaragebisTvis;

• RonisZiebebs, romlebic uzrunvelyofs krizisul situaciaSi saTbobis saxeobebis urTierTCanacvlebas;

• krizisul situaciaze reagirebis gegmis momzadebasa da aRsrulebis uzrunvelyofas (saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi).

am principebis realizacias xels uwyobs liberalur sabazro urTierTobebze gadasvla da regionalur struqturebSi integracia, infrastruqturis funqcionirebis saimedoobis amaRlebis strategiis swori dagegmva da Sesabamisi samuSaoebis ganxorcieleba, maT Soris:

21 In-depth review of the energy efficiency policy of Georgia 2010, Energy Charter Protocol – PEERA, Brussels, 2011 22 In-depth review of the energy efficiency policy of Georgia 2010, Energy Charter Protocol – PEERA, Brussels, 2011 23savaldebuloa evrogaerTianebis me-3 energetikuli paketis moTxovnebis Tanaxmad

17

• satransporto infrastruqturis sistemuri saimedoobis amaRleba magistraluri gazsadenebis reabilitacia-ganviTarebisa da maTi operirebis saSualebebisa da meTodebis modernizaciis gziT;

• mowodebis wyaroebis diversifikacia Sesabamisi teqnikuri saSualebebis (transsasazRvro milsadenebis da mimRebi punqtebis) da momwodeblebTan grZelvadiani kontraqtebis uzrunvelyofiT;

• Siga bazris Sesabamisi momzadeba liberalizaciisaTvis da maregulirebeli kanonmdeblobis Sesabamisi adaptacia;

• strategiuli daniSnulebis obieqtebis, maT Soris, sxvadasxva mimarTulebis da miwodebis sxvadasxva wyaroebis damakavSirebeli milsadenebis da miwisqveSa gazsacavis dagegmva, agreTve energiis saxeobebis diversifikacia qveynis moSorebuli da maRalmTiani regionebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT kompaqturi da maRali xvedriTi energotevadebis mqone gazisa da navTobproduqtebis transformaciis sxvadasxva produqtebiT (LPG, CNG da sxva) momarageba.

azerbaijanis gazis mzardi saeqsporto potencialis da mowodebis satransporto infrastruqturis SesaZleblobebis (ix. cxrili), Cven qveyanasTan energetikis sferoSi Camoyalibebuli strategiuli urTierT TanamSromlobisa da arsebuli politikur-ekonomikuri realiebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos gaziT momaragebis prioritetul wyarod azerbaijani iTvleba. azerbaijanuli Sah-denizis sabados gazis miReba saqarTveloSi warmoebs samxreT kavkasiuri gazsadenis sistemis (smk), xolo sxva sabadoebze mopovebuli, “sokaris” kuTvnili gazis, azerbaijan-saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemis meSveobiT.

azerbaijanis gazis mopovebis, adgilobrivi moxmarebisa da eqsportis prognozi24, mlrd m3/w

wyaro 2012 2015 2017 2020 2025 sokari 7 7 7 7 7 aCg (arsebuli) 3 3 3 3 3 aCg (Rrma horizonti)25 - - - 2 (?) 5-7 (?) Sah denizi (I faza) 8 9 9 9 9 Sah denizi (II faza) - - - 11 16 umidi da sxva - 1 3 4 5 sul mopoveba 18 20 24 34 40 sul adgilobrivi moxmareba 9 9,9 10,4 11,4 13,2 sul eqsporti 9 10,1 13,6 22,6 26,8 eqsporti saqarTvelos gavliT 4,5 6 8 (9?) 16 (20?) 22 (27?)

mniSvnelovani satranzito proeqtebisa da mezobel qveynebTan

energetikuli kavSirebis aRdgena-ganviTarebis xelSewyoba, paralelurad mowodebis wyaroebisa da marSrutebis mixedviT saqarTvelos energetikuli resursebiT momaragebis diversifikaciasac uzrunvelyofs.

24 AGRI Feasibility Study, Progress Meeting Presentation by Penspen Group, September 22, 2012 with consideration of SOCAR’s Comments by 17.10.2012 25 BP-s informaciiT kaspiis navTobisa da gazis VI savaWro-satransporto konferenciaze (baqo, oqtomberi, 2012 w.), mimdinareobs molaparakebebi am, agreTve “afSeronis” sabadodan gazis mopovebis dawyebis Sesaxeb 2020 wlidan. wyaro: http://www.trend.az/capital/energty/2077577.html

Camoyalibebulia mniSvnelovani xelSemwyobi faqtorebi gazis axali satranzito magistralebis mSeneblobis proeqtebis realizaciisaTvis azerbaijanuli da centraluri aziis sabadoebis gazis samxreTis energetikuli koridoris meSveobiT evropaSi miwodebis alternatiuli proeqtuzrunvelyofil iqneminimumamde Semcirdenegatiuri Sedegebi26.

samxreTis koridoris gavliT azerbaijanuli Sah denizis sabadosaziis qveynebis bunebrivi gazis balevropaSi miwodeba kavkasiuri gazsadenis sistemisNABUCCO WEST, TAP)miwodebisaTvis dagegmilia

naxazi sawyis etapze

samxreT kavkasiur gazsadenis sistemismilsadenebs, miwodebis saqarTvelos teritoriaze sistemis gafarToeba, paraleluri milsadenisa da damatebiTi sakompresoro suzrunvelyofili iqneba misi 22-24 mlrd m3-mde

26evrokavSiris damokidebulebam importze navTobis SemTxvevaSi 90%daaxloebiT 64%-s, xolo naxSiris SemTxvevaSi 27T.Gochitashvili, T.Javakhishvili, Oil and Gas Trunk Pipelines, “Meridiani”, Tbilisi, 2012

18

Camoyalibebulia mniSvnelovani xelSemwyobi faqtorebi satranzito magistralebis mSeneblobis proeqtebis

saqarTvelos teritoriis gavliTazerbaijanuli da centraluri aziis sabadoebis gazis samxreTis energetikuli koridoris meSveobiT evropaSi miwodebis alternatiuli proeqtis aqtiuri ganxilva da damuSaveba, ruzrunvelyofil iqneba evropuli bazris Semdgomi diversifikaciminimumamde Semcirdeba monopolisti mwarmoeblebis SesaZlo diqtatis

. samxreTis koridoris gavliT (ix. naxazi 5)

erbaijanuli Sah denizis sabados, SemdgomSi ki SesaZloa centraluri aziis qveynebis bunebrivi gazis balkaneTSi, samxreT

saqarTvelos teritoriaze ganlagebuli kavkasiuri gazsadenis sistemisa (SCP) da dagegmili milsadenebis

TAP) gamoyenebiT27. am marSrutiT Turqmenuli gazis gegmilia transkaspiuri milsadenis (

naxazi 5. samxreTis gazis koridori

gazis mzardi saeqsporto moculobebi samxreT kavkasiur gazsadenis sistemis gavliT daukavSirdeba am milsadenebs, miwodebis Semdgomi gazrdis Semdeg ki igegmeba azerbaijansaqarTvelos teritoriaze sistemis gafarToeba, paraleluri milsadenisa da damatebiTi sakompresoro sadgurebis mSeneblobis meSveobiT, uzrunvelyofili iqneba misi wliuri gamtarunarianobis amJamindeli 8

mde gazrda. mmarTveli konsorciumi gegmavs

damokidebulebam importze navTobis SemTxvevaSi 90%-s, bunebrivi gazis SemTxvevaSi s, xolo naxSiris SemTxvevaSi - 40%-s miaRwia

T.Gochitashvili, T.Javakhishvili, Oil and Gas Trunk Pipelines, “Meridiani”, Tbilisi, 2012

CNG

Camoyalibebulia mniSvnelovani xelSemwyobi faqtorebi navTobisa da satranzito magistralebis mSeneblobis proeqtebis

saqarTvelos teritoriis gavliT. mimdinareobs azerbaijanuli da centraluri aziis sabadoebis gazis samxreTis energetikuli koridoris meSveobiT evropaSi miwodebis sxvadasxva

is aqtiuri ganxilva da damuSaveba, riTac bazris Semdgomi diversifikacia da

monopolisti mwarmoeblebis SesaZlo diqtatis

) gaTvaliswinebulia , SemdgomSi ki SesaZloa centraluri

reT da/an centralur qarTvelos teritoriaze ganlagebuli samxreT

dagegmili milsadenebis (TANAP, am marSrutiT Turqmenuli gazis

(TCP) mSenebloba.

. samxreTis gazis koridori

mzardi saeqsporto moculobebi arsebuli gavliT daukavSirdeba am

Semdeg ki igegmeba azerbaijan-saqarTvelos teritoriaze sistemis gafarToeba, paraleluri milsadenisa

adgurebis mSeneblobis meSveobiT, riTac gamtarunarianobis amJamindeli 8-9-dan

mmarTveli konsorciumi gegmavs samuSaoebis

s, bunebrivi gazis SemTxvevaSi

19

dawyebas 2013 wlidan im angariSiT, rom Sah-denizis sabados me-2 fazis aTvisebis dasrulebis momentisaTvis, milsadeni mzadyofnaSi iyos gazis mzardi nakadebis Seuferxebeli gatarebisaTvis.

prognozis mixedviT (ix. cxrili), Sah-denizis sabados meore fazis aTvisebisa da samxreTis gazis koridoris amoqmedebis Semdeg, savaraudod 2018 wlidan, samxreT kavkasiuri gazsadenidan tranzitis safasurad da damatebiT, SeRavaTiani tarifiT miRebuli gazis moculoba wliurad SeiZleba 1300-1600 mln m3-s gautoldes.

erT-erT SesaZlo variantad ganixileba, agreTve, azerbaijanuli gazis evropul bazarze miwodeba azerbaijan-saqarTvelo-rumineTis interkonektoris (AGRI) meSveobiT, romelic iTvaliswinebs Savi zRvis saqarTvelos sanapiroze bunebrivi gazis gaTxevadebis (LNG) terminalis mowyobas da produqciis transportirebas tankerebiT rumineTis sanapiromde, sadac moewyoba miReba-regazifikaciisa da ganawilebis sistemebi. AGRI LNG proeqtis realizaciisaTvis saqarTvelos teritoriaze igegmeba skm-is saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemasTan damakavSirebeli axali mimRebi kvanZisa da magistraluri gazsadenebis dasavleTis ganStoebasTan damakavSirebeli vale-vanis maRalwneviani milsadenis (interkonektoris) mSenebloba, an arsebuli aRmosavleT-dasavleTis magistraluri milsadenis gamoyeneba, reabilitacia-rekonstruqciis Semdeg azerbaijanis sazRvridan saqarTvelos Savi zRvis sanapiroze ganlagebuli gazis gaTxevadebis sawarmomde.

aRsaniSnavia, rom evrokomisiis mier SeTavazebuli regulaciiT COM(2011)658 gansazRvrulia evrokavSiris samomavlo prioritetuli proeqtebi, romelTa Soris Setanilia rogorc samxreTis gazis koridoris, ise CrdiloeT-samxreTis damakavSirebeli infrastruqturis proeqtebi centralur aRmosavleT da samxreT aRmosavleT evropis regionebSi, maT Soris AGRI LNG terminali Savi zRvis sanapiroze da AGRI-s evrokavSiris regionuli interkonektori ruminuli konstancidan ungreTis sazRvramde28.

CrdiloeT-samxreTis magistraluri gazsadeniT (NSGP) xorcieldeba rusuli gazis tranziti somxeTis mimarTulebiT. gazsadenis operirebas saqarTvelos gazis transportirebis kompania axorcielebs. 2007-2010 wlebSi Sesrulda gazsadenis sareabilitacio samuSaoebi aSS-s aTaswleulis gamowvevis fondis dafinansebiT. reabilitaciis Sedegad gaizarda sistemis funqcionirebis saimedooba da minimumamde Semcirda gazis teqnikuri danakargebi. aseve, reabilitaciis Sedegad gazsadenis gamtarunarianoba weliwadSi 5 miliardi m3-idan daaxloebiT 8 miliard m3-mde gaizarda. 2011 wels milsadeniT somxeTs tranzitiT miewoda 1,609 mln m3 gazi, 2012 wlis prognoziT gaTvaliswinebulia krizisamdeli moculobis, daaxloebiT 2 mlrd m3, gazis miwodeba.

dawyebulia saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemis etapobrivi aRdgena-ganviTarebis samuSaoebi. dasrulebulia gardabani-navTluRis, navTluRi-saguramosa da senaki-foTis monakveTebis mSenebloba. mimdinareobs axali, daaxloebiT 76 km sigrZis milsadenis mSenebloba quTaisidan baRdaTis, vanisa da abaSis municipalitetebis gavliT senakis 28 http://ec.europa.eu/infrastructure/consultations/20120620_infrastructue_plan_en.htm

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mimarTulebiT. axali monakveTebis mSenebloba xels Seuwyobs dasavleT saqarTvelos regionebis, qalaq foTisa da Tavisufali industriuli zonisa da Savi zRvispireTis sakurorto-rekreaciuli zonebis uwyvet gazmomaragebas bunebrivi gaziT.

dagegmilia saguramo-quTaisis magistraluri gazsadenis daaxloebiT 200 km sigrZis monakveTis aRdgena-rekonstruqciis samuSaoebis Sesruleba, rac iTvaliswinebs mTel sigrZeze maRalwneviani (55 bari saproeqto wneviT) 700 mm diametris milsadenebis gamoyenebas (arsebuli 500 mm-iani seqciebis Canacvlebas). milsadeni aRmosavleT da dasavleT saqarTvelos damakavSirebel da qveynis dasavleTi regionebis gazmomaragebis erTaderT saSualebas warmoadgens. monakveTis rekonstruqcia etapobrivad ganxorcieldeba. ukve momzadebulia zestafoni-quTaisisa da saguramo-vayas monakveTebis nawilis (sul 72 km) proeqtebi.

Sesrulebulia winaswari samuSaoebi tabawyuri-bakurianis Semkvrelisa da kaxeTis rgoluri gazmomaragebis sistemis rusTavi-sagarejos mwyobridan gamosuli monakveTis daproeqteba-mSeneblobisaTvis.

saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi mimarTulebis aRdgena-ganviTarebis, iseve rogorc vale-vanisa da sxva dagegmili Semkravebis (interkonektorebis) proeqtebis realizacia safuZvels Cauyris saqarTvelos gazmomaragebis sistemis Cixuri arqiteqturis Secvlas maRali saimedoobis wriuli (rgoluri) gazmomaragebiT, rac kritikul situaciebSi gazis nakadebis gadamisamarTebis saSualebas iZleva nebismieri momxmareblis garantirebuli gazmomaragebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT da mniSvnelovnad gazrdis saqarTvelos gazmomaragebis erTiani sistemis funqcionirebis arealsa da teqnologiur saimedoobas. proeqtebis garemosdacviTi efeqti moicavs saeqspluatacio vadagasuli da dazianebuli gazsadenidan

gaJonvebis aRkveTaს da sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi SeSis Canacvlebas gaziT. amas garda, mosaxleoba miiRebs yvelaze dabali xvedriTi Rirebulebis saTbobs – bunebriv gazs, rac saojaxo biujetis mniSvnelovani dazogvisa da siRaribis daZlevis saxelmwifo programis realizaciis erT-erT xelSemwyobi faqtori SeiZleba gaxdes warmoebis intensiuri ganviTarebis stimulaciis bazaze adgilobrivi mosaxleobis dasaqmebulobis zrdis meSveobiT.

21

2.2.2.2. saprognozo Sefasebebi saprognozo Sefasebebi saprognozo Sefasebebi saprognozo Sefasebebi 2.3.2.3.2.3.2.3. moTxovnis prognozimoTxovnis prognozimoTxovnis prognozimoTxovnis prognozi

saqarTvelos moTxovna pirvelad energetikul resursebze dReisaTvis ZiriTadad importiT aris dabalansebuli, Tumca mdidari hidro- da ganaxlebadi energetikuli resursebis arseboba, agreTve wiaRiseuli naxSiris, navTobisa da gazis sabadoebis Zebna-Ziebisa da ganviTarebis garkveuli perspeqtivebi, saxelmwifo energetikuli politikisa da garemos dacvis prioritetebze orientirebuli energetikis ganviTarebis tendenciis gaTvaliswinebiT, axlo momavalSi am mdgomareobis nawilobrivi gaumjobesebis safuZveli SeiZleba gaxdes.

zogadad moTxovna energetikul resursebze korelaciur kavSirSia qveynis ekonomikur mdgomareobasTan, amasTan, masze mniSvnelovan zegavlenas axdens energomoxmarebis xvedriTi intensivoba warmoebuli produqciis erTeulze da moxmarebis struqtura, agreTve, mosaxleobis ricxovnobis cvalebadobis tendencia, mobiluroba da a.S. qvemoT SemoTavazebulia energetikuli resursebis moxmarebis prognozi saqarTveloSi, romelic daefuZna energetikis saministros prognozebs, aseve im kvlevebis Sedegebs, romlebic dafinansebuli iyo aSS saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos

(USAID)29, MCG30 da OECD31 mier. analizisas gaTvaliswinebula mSp-s zrdis saprognozo tempi qveyanaSi

wliuri 6 %-is doneze, rac saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis monacemebze dayrdnobiT SeiZleba Sefasdes, rogorc faqtobrivi zrdis (saSualo wliuri 5-7% ukanaskneli 10 wlis ganmavlobaSi)32 konservatuli asaxva. pirvelad energoresursebze moTxovnilebis dagegmili saSualo zrdis tempebi ganisazRvra moxmarebis xvedriTi intensivobis Semcirebis (energoefeqturobis daaxloebiT 40%-iT zrdis) tendenciis mxedvelobaSi miRebiT da mSp-sTan zrdasTan 0,6 korelaciis koeficientis gaTvaliswinebiT, Sesabamisad (aRsaniSnavia, rom energomoxmarebis dagegmili wliuri 3,6 %-iani zrda adekvaturad asaxavs bolo wlebis (2006-2011) tendencias eleqtroenergetikaSi, roca moxmareba 2007 wlis 7,8 mlrd kvtsT-dan 2011 wlisaTvis daaxloebiT 9,2 mlrd kvtsT-mde gaizarda).

prognozis Tanaxmad, qveynis jamuri moTxovna pirvelad energetikul resursebze mimdinare aTwleulSi daaxloebiT 7 mln tne-mde gaizrdeba (ixile naxazi).

gazis moxmarebis prognozis dazustebisaTvis, gamoyenebulia, agreTve, analizis e.w. “qvemodan zemoT” meTodologia, rac momxmarebeli seqtorebis saprognozo moTxovnis safuZvelze gansazRvravs savaraudo jamur moTxovnas. aseTi analizis dros damatebiT gaTvaliswinebul iqna, agreTve, mrewvelobis, maT Soris Tavisufali industriuli zonebisa da mSenebare karbamidis qarxnis dagegmili moTxovna gazze. jamuri moxmarebis balansSi ar iqna gaTvaliswinebuli saTbobze moTxovna saqarTvelos teritoriaze ganlagebuli satranzito navTob- da gazsadenebis momsaxure satumbi da

29 Natural gas strategy for Georgia, Part 1: Analyses and proposals, and Part 2: Economic and geopolitical context, USAID, 2006 30 UGS Preconstruction design Study, Option Study, RAMBOLL, 2010 31 Regional Power Transmission Extension Plan for Caucasus Countries 32 Georgia’s Hydropower Potential, BoG, June 28, 2012

dagegmili sakompresoro sadgurebisa da bunebrivi gazis gasawarmos (AGRI LNG proeqtis farglebSi)

naxazi 6. pirveladi energoresursebtne (gaz

savaraudod, wiaRiseuli resursebis domenergetikul balansSimomavalSic SenarCunraodenobrivi maCveneblebi, rasacsiiafe, ekologiuri sisufTave da moxmarebis simartive yvela sxva xelmisawvdom pirvelad energoresursTan SedarebiT.siiafe saqarTveloSi evropis qveynebTan SedarebiT gansazRvrulia mowodebis wyaroebis siaxloviT da es tendencia momavalSic iqneba SenarCunebuli, rac xels Seuwyobs

prognozirebis dros arseboba warmoebuli QWarbi pikuri zafxulis wyaluxvobis periodSiintegrirebiT erTian regionul energomomaragebis sistemzamTarSi elenergiis deficitis SevsebdaaxloebiT 15-20Tboeleqtrosadgurebze gaziT iqnemoxmareba eleqtrogeneraciis seqtorSi 2020axlad asaSenebl sarezervo gazturbingautoldeba.

regionebis gazifikaciis saxelmwifo programis farglebSi sadistribucio qselebis ganviTareba da momxmarebelmniSvnelovani zrda seqtorSi. arsebuli informaciwlebisaTvis daaxloebiT 300 aTass

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SeSa da sxva ganaxlebadieletroenergia (hesi)navTobproduqtebi

22

dagegmili sakompresoro sadgurebisa da bunebrivi gazis gaproeqtis farglebSi) mier.

. pirveladi energoresursebis moTxovnis zrdis prognozi, aTasitne (gazze moTxovnis intensiuri zrdis

wiaRiseuli resursebis dominirebulienergetikul balansSi, maT Soris gazis daaxloebiT 30

SenarCundeba, Tumca mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba moxmarebis raodenobrivi maCveneblebi, rasac xels uwyobs bunebrivi airis

, ekologiuri sisufTave da moxmarebis simartive yvela sxva xelmisawvdom pirvelad energoresursTan SedarebiT.

aqarTveloSi evropis qveynebTan SedarebiT gansazRvrulia mowodebis wyaroebis siaxloviT da es tendencia momavalSic iqneba

xels Seuwyobs gazze moTxovnis permanentul rognozirebis dros gaTvaliswinebulia xelsayrel

warmoebuli QWarbi pikuri elenergiis eqsportisaTviszafxulis wyaluxvobis periodSi, erTi mxriv, da sistemis dagegmili integrirebiT erTian regionul energomomaragebis sistem

giis deficitis SevsebisaTvis ki, 20 %-s farglebSi, elenergia

Tboeleqtrosadgurebze gaziT iqnes warmoebuli. moxmareba eleqtrogeneraciis seqtorSi 2020-2021 wlaxlad asaSenebl sarezervo gazturbin(eb)aze, daaxloebiT

regionebis gazifikaciis saxelmwifo programis farglebSi sadistribucio qselebis ganviTareba da momxmarebel

gazis moxmarebis zrdas ganapirobebs sayofacxovrebo . arsebuli informaciiT, axali abonentebis raodenoba

isaTvis daaxloebiT 300 aTass gautoldeba. aseve

2011 2016

SeSa da sxva ganaxlebadi geoTermiaeletroenergia (hesi) gazinavTobproduqtebi naxSiri da koqsi

dagegmili sakompresoro sadgurebisa da bunebrivi gazis gamaTxevadebeli

is moTxovnis zrdis prognozi, aTasi

zrdis scenari)

nirebuli wili mTlian daaxloebiT 30-33 %-is doneze,

Tumca mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba moxmarebis xels uwyobs bunebrivi airis SedarebiTi

, ekologiuri sisufTave da moxmarebis simartive yvela sxva xelmisawvdom pirvelad energoresursTan SedarebiT. gazis SedarebiTi

aqarTveloSi evropis qveynebTan SedarebiT gansazRvrulia mowodebis wyaroebis siaxloviT da es tendencia momavalSic iqneba

permanentul zrdas. xelsayreli winapirobebis eqsportisaTvis gazafxul-, da sistemis dagegmili

integrirebiT erTian regionul energomomaragebis sistemebSi, meore mxriv. ki, wliuri generaciis elenergia SeiZleba Sesabamisad, gazis ebisaTvis, maT Soris

daaxloebiT 650-700 mln m3-s

regionebis gazifikaciis saxelmwifo programis farglebSi dagegmili sadistribucio qselebis ganviTareba da momxmarebelTa raodenobis

gazis moxmarebis zrdas ganapirobebs sayofacxovrebo iT, axali abonentebis raodenoba 2021-2025

aseve, sarwmunod unda

2021

23

CaiTvalos “rambollis” Sefaseba33 abonentTa raodenobis zrdis Sesaxeb 2013-2025 wlebSi wliurad daaxloebiT 1 %-iT, saerTaSoriso praqtikis Sesabamisad. aRniSnulis gaTvaliswinebiT, agreTve momxmarebelTa mier gazis moxmarebis bunebrivi zrdis tempis gaTvaliswinebiT, dadgenilia, rom gazis moxmareba saqarTvelos sayofacxovrebo seqtorSi 2010 wlis 445 mln m3-dan 2020-2021 wlebisaTvis minimum 800 mln m3-mde gaizrdeba. ufro konservatulia sngk-s 2012 wlis Sefaseba, romelic 2016 wlamde sayofacxovrebo moxmarebis wliurad 2 %-iT, SemdgomSi ki 1,5 %-iT zrdas iTvaliswinebs. Sedegad, 2020 wlisaTvis prognozirebuli moxmareba daaxloebiT 600-650 mln m3-s gautoldeba.

gazis moxmarebis prognozi samrewvelo da komerciul seqtorSi efuZneba Semdeg mosazrebebs:

• seqtoris moTxovna gazze gaizrdeba mSp-is zrdis tempis Sesabamisad;

• gazis fasi saqarTveloSi evropul fasebze dabal doneze SenarCundeba, rac damatebiT safuZvels Seqmnis konkurentunariani adgilobrivi produqciis warmoebisaTvis;

• mrewvelobis aRdgena da Tavisufali industriuli zonebis ganviTareba xelSemwyobi faqtori iqneba gazis moxmarebis zrdisaTvis;

• mniSvnelovnad gaumjobesdeba warmoebis energoefeqturoba, romelic amJamad SedarebiT dabalia, vidre ganviTarebuli ekonomikis qveynebSi;

• uzrunvelyofili iqneba alternatul wiaRiseul saTbobTan (qvanaxSiri, navTobi) SedarebiT gazis upiratesi moxmareba misi fardobiTi ekologiuri usafrTxoebis gamo.

aRniSnulis gaTvaliswinebiT, dadgenilia, rom mimdinare aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, gazis moxmareba qveynis samrewvelo seqtorSi, axali, msxvili industriuli simZlavreeebis moTxovnis gareSe, gaizrdeba daaxloebiT 900 mln m3-mde/w-Si. sngk-s Sefaseba, Tavisufali industriuli zonebis savaraudo moxmarebis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe, praqtikulad emTxveva am prognozs da daaxloebiT 1000 mln m3-s Seadgens.

Sesabamisad, saqarTveloSi gazis moTxovna-moxmareba 2006-2010 wlebis saSualo 1.6 mlrd m3-dan, 2020-2021 wlebisaTvis daaxloebiT 2,4-3,1 mlrd m3-mde SeiZleba gaizardos (ix. naxazi).

prognozirebuli moTxovnis garantirebuli dakmayofilebisa da qveynis ekonomikis sxvadasxva dargis, energetikisa da sayofacxovrebo seqtoris mdgradi funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofisaTvis regionul sistemebSi integrirebuli da liberaluri, konkurentuli sabazro urTierTobebis pirobebSi, saWiro iqneba rogorc mowodebis diversifikaciis, ise Sesabamisi transportireba-ganawilebisa da damaragebis infrastruqturis ganviTareba, agreTve Sesabamisi institucionaluri da sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebis ganxorcieleba mTlianad energetikasa da maT Soris gazis seqtorSi.

33 UGS Preconstruction design Study, Option Study, RAMBOLL, 2011

naxazi 7. moTxovna bunebriv gazze (mln m

2.4. mowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebiazerbaijanuli, Sah

uzrunvelyofilia mmarTvel kontraqtebis safuZvelze, romlis Tanaxmad qveyanas SeuZlia mitranzitis sanacvlod milsadenSi gatarebuli gazis moculobis proporciuli gazi naturis saxiT (an Sesabamisi fuladSeRavaTian fasad mowodebuli damatebiT

samxreT kavkasiis milsadeniT Sahpirobebi ganisazRvreba opciuri gazis (2026 wlamde) yidvagazis mowodebisaTvis Seqmnil Sesabamis kompaniebsa (da ss ,,saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporacias~ So

prognozis TanaxmadmniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba Sah denizis sabados II fazis aTvisebis Semdeg 1300, Semdeg ki SesaZloa

azerbaijanTan SeTanxmebuli samTavrobo memorandumiTa da mis safuZvelze navTobis erovnul kompaniebs Soris xelmowerili grZelvadiani, strategiuli mniSvnelobis komerciuli xelSekrulebiT uzrunvelyofilia erTad damatebiT saWiro raodenobis gazis garantirebuli mowodeba socialuri TvalsazrisiT seqtori da energetika), stabiluri tarifebis SenarCunebis pirobiT, mimdinare dekadis dReisaTvis problemurisezonuri gansxvavebis ararsebobiT saqarTveloSi.gazis damatebiTi moculobis importisaTanado moTxovnis azerbaijanidan miRebuli gazis jamuri moculobebi (Sah denizis gazisgareSe da “sokaris”

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24

. moTxovna bunebriv gazze (mln m3/w) ganviTarebis sxvadasxva scenarebis dros

mowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebimowodebis wyaroebi azerbaijanuli, Sah-denizis sabados gazis miReba saqarTveloSi

mmarTvel konsorciumTan xelmowerilikontraqtebis safuZvelze, romlis Tanaxmad qveyanas SeuZlia mitranzitis sanacvlod milsadenSi gatarebuli gazis moculobis

naturis saxiT (an Sesabamisi fuladSeRavaTian fasad mowodebuli damatebiTi gazi.

samxreT kavkasiis milsadeniT Sah-denizis bunebrivi gazis mowodebis isazRvreba opciuri gazis (2067 wlamde)

yidva-gayidvis xelSekrulebebiT, romlebic gaformebuliagazis mowodebisaTvis Seqmnil Sesabamis kompaniebsa (SCP Option Coda ss ,,saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporacias~ So

prognozis Tanaxmad, opciuri da damatebiTi gazis moculobebi mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba Sah denizis sabados II fazis aTvisebis Semdeg

SesaZloa 1600 mln m3-mde weliwadSi. azerbaijanTan SeTanxmebuli samTavrobo memorandumiTa da mis

safuZvelze navTobis erovnul kompaniebs Soris (sngkxelmowerili grZelvadiani, strategiuli mniSvnelobis komerciuli xelSekrulebiT uzrunvelyofilia Sah denizis sabadodan miRebul gazTa

saWiro raodenobis gazis garantirebuli mowodeba TvalsazrisiT mowyvladi momxmareblisaTvis (sayofacxovrebo

seqtori da energetika), stabiluri tarifebis SenarCunebis pirobiT, ganmavlobaSi. kontraqtis pirobebi

dReisaTvis problemuri, gazis mowodebasa da moxmarebas Soris mkveTri ansxvavebis dabalansebas, rac ganpirobebuliasaqarTveloSi. gaTvaliswinebulia, agreTve

gazis damatebiTi moculobis importis pirobebi komerciulsaTanado moTxovnis arsebobis dros. saprognozo Sefasebebis Tanaxmadazerbaijanidan miRebuli gazis jamuri moculobebi (Sah denizis gazis

da “sokaris” kuTvnili karbadimis sawarmos moTxovnis

2012 2016 2018

maqsimaluri

saprognozo

minimaluri

/w) ganviTarebis sxvadasxva

denizis sabados gazis miReba saqarTveloSi xelmowerili grZelvadiani

kontraqtebis safuZvelze, romlis Tanaxmad qveyanas SeuZlia miiRos tranzitis sanacvlod milsadenSi gatarebuli gazis moculobis

naturis saxiT (an Sesabamisi fuladi anazRaureba) da

denizis bunebrivi gazis mowodebis 067 wlamde) da damatebiTi gazis

gayidvis xelSekrulebebiT, romlebic gaformebulia SCP Option Co da AGSC)

da ss ,,saqarTvelos navTobisa da gazis korporacias~ Soris. opciuri da damatebiTi gazis moculobebi

mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba Sah denizis sabados II fazis aTvisebis Semdeg

azerbaijanTan SeTanxmebuli samTavrobo memorandumiTa da mis sngk da ”sokars”) Soris

xelmowerili grZelvadiani, strategiuli mniSvnelobis komerciuli sabadodan miRebul gazTan

saWiro raodenobis gazis garantirebuli mowodeba momxmareblisaTvis (sayofacxovrebo

seqtori da energetika), stabiluri tarifebis SenarCunebis pirobiT, mTeli ganmavlobaSi. kontraqtis pirobebi uzrunvelyofs

gazis mowodebasa da moxmarebas Soris mkveTri npirobebulia gazsacavis agreTve, azerbaijanidan

komerciuli seqtoris saprognozo Sefasebebis Tanaxmad,

azerbaijanidan miRebuli gazis jamuri moculobebi (Sah denizis gazis kuTvnili karbadimis sawarmos moTxovnis

2018 2020

gauTvaliswineblad) stabilurSenarCundeba, TiTqmis mTeli dekadistendenciiT Sah denizis aTvisebis II fazis realizaciis Semdeg (ixile naxazi).

naxazi 8. gazis importis saprognozo moculobebi mowodebis wyaroebis

CrdiloeT-samxreTis gazsadenis operatoritransportirebis kompania~, rusul gazeqsportTan (“gazpromis” Svilobili kompania) dadebuli xelSekrulebiTsomxeTis mimarTulebiT bunebrivi gazis tranmomsaxurebis safasurs naturiT. prognozis TanaxmadperiodSi, rusuli gazis tranzitis safasurad miRebulistabilurad SenarCundeba

garda amisa, SesaZlebelia rusuli gazis eqsporti sabazro fasiTac, magaliTad, komerciuli seqtoris dakmayofilebis mizniTkonkurenciis waxalisebis mizniT. es ukanaskneli SemwarmoiSvas bazris dacvis mizniT monopolisti momwodeblis diqtatisagan, ris saSiSroebac, rogorc saerTaSoriso praqtika aCvenebs, dgeba bazris 1/3ze meti segmentis gakontrolebis SemTxvevaSimier. rogorc analizi sabados aTvisebis II fazis proeqtis realizaciamde, mowodebuli gazis moculoba kritikul mniSvnelobas gadaaWarbebs. rusuli gazis metad maRali sabazro Rirebulebis gamo, agreTve azerbaijanTan damyarebuli strategiuli urTierTobebis saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi komerciuli fasiT ruseTidan gazis Semotanis ekonomikuri winapirobebi.

gazis importi Teoriulad SeiZleba ganxorcieldesTurqmeneTidan an iranidan, ruseTis, azerbaijanis an somxeTis gavliT. mowodebis sqemebis sirTulisa da SedarebiT maRali Rirebulebis gamo,

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skm damatebiTiskm ofciuriazerbaijanuli gazi kontraqtiTazerbaijanuli gazi (sabazro fasiT)rusuli gazi (tranzitis safasurad)

25

) stabilur, daaxloebiT 1100 TiTqmis mTeli dekadis ganmavlobaSi, mniSvnelovani klebis

tendenciiT Sah denizis aTvisebis II fazis realizaciis Semdeg (ixile

importis saprognozo moculobebi mowodebis wyaroebis mixedviT, mln m3/w

samxreTis gazsadenis operatori

transportirebis kompania~, rusul gazeqsportTan (“gazpromis” Svilobili dadebuli xelSekrulebiT yovelwliurad iRebs ruseTidan

somxeTis mimarTulebiT bunebrivi gazis tranzimomsaxurebis safasurs naturiT. prognozis Tanaxmad

rusuli gazis tranzitis safasurad miRebulistabilurad SenarCundeba, saSualod 200 mln m3/w doneze.

SesaZlebelia rusuli gazis eqsporti sabazro fasiTac, komerciuli seqtoris gauTvaliswinebeli

mizniT an fors-maJorul situaciaSi an bazarze konkurenciis waxalisebis mizniT. es ukanaskneli SemwarmoiSvas bazris dacvis mizniT monopolisti momwodeblis diqtatisagan, ris saSiSroebac, rogorc saerTaSoriso praqtika aCvenebs, dgeba bazris 1/3

gakontrolebis SemTxvevaSi erTi ekonomi. rogorc analizi aCvenebs, aseTi saSiSroeba iarsebebs Sah denizis

sabados aTvisebis II fazis proeqtis realizaciamde, mowodebuli gazis moculoba kritikul mniSvnelobas gadaaWarbebs. rusuli gazis metad maRali sabazro Rirebulebis gamo, agreTve

anTan damyarebuli strategiuli urTierTobebis saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi naklebad mosalodneliakomerciuli fasiT ruseTidan gazis Semotanis ekonomikuri winapirobebi.

gazis importi Teoriulad SeiZleba ganxorcieldesan iranidan, ruseTis, azerbaijanis an somxeTis gavliT. is sirTulisa da SedarebiT maRali Rirebulebis gamo,

2015 2018

skm damatebiTiskm ofciuriazerbaijanuli gazi kontraqtiTazerbaijanuli gazi (sabazro fasiT)rusuli gazi (tranzitis safasurad)

mln m3/w, doneze , mniSvnelovani klebis

tendenciiT Sah denizis aTvisebis II fazis realizaciis Semdeg (ixile

importis saprognozo moculobebi mowodebis wyaroebis

,,saqarTvelos gazis transportirebis kompania~, rusul gazeqsportTan (“gazpromis” Svilobili

yovelwliurad iRebs ruseTidan zitisaTvis gaweuli

momsaxurebis safasurs naturiT. prognozis Tanaxmad, gansaxilvel rusuli gazis tranzitis safasurad miRebuli gazis moculoba

/w doneze. SesaZlebelia rusuli gazis eqsporti sabazro fasiTac,

gauTvaliswinebeli moTxovnis maJorul situaciaSi an bazarze

konkurenciis waxalisebis mizniT. es ukanaskneli SemTxveva SeiZleba warmoiSvas bazris dacvis mizniT monopolisti momwodeblis diqtatisagan, ris saSiSroebac, rogorc saerTaSoriso praqtika aCvenebs, dgeba bazris 1/3-

erTi ekonomikuri subieqtis aseTi saSiSroeba iarsebebs Sah denizis

sabados aTvisebis II fazis proeqtis realizaciamde, roca “sokaris” mier mowodebuli gazis moculoba kritikul mniSvnelobas gadaaWarbebs. Tumca rusuli gazis metad maRali sabazro Rirebulebis gamo, agreTve

anTan damyarebuli strategiuli urTierTobebis fonze, mokle da naklebad mosalodnelia Camoyalibdes

komerciuli fasiT ruseTidan gazis Semotanis politikuri da/an

gazis importi Teoriulad SeiZleba ganxorcieldes yazaxeTidan, an iranidan, ruseTis, azerbaijanis an somxeTis gavliT. is sirTulisa da SedarebiT maRali Rirebulebis gamo, zog

2020

26

SemTxvevaSi ki ruseTis mier satranzito marSrutis dablokvis gamo (magaliTad, gazis mowodebisaTvis yazaxeTidan “yaztransgaz Tbilisis” saWiroebisaTvis), mokle da saSualovadiani periodisaTvis am qveynebidan gazis mowodebis SesaZlebloba saqarTvelos bazarze, naSromSi ganxiluli araa.

arsebobs saqarTvelos bazarze gazis mowodebis potenciali, Tumca umniSvnelo raodenobiT, adgilobriv gamovlenili rusTavisa da samgori-patarZeuli-ninowmindis sabadoebidanac.

rusTavis gazis sabadoze gazSemcvelia Suaeocenuri naleqebi, romlebic 3300-3600 m siRrmeze arian ganlagebuli. daZiebuli maragebis (C1 + C2 kategoria) raodenoba Seadgens 6,7 mlrd m3-s.

samgori-patarZeuli-ninowmindis gaznavTobis sabados farglebSi gamovlenilia 2 gazis budobi. samgoris TaRze gazSemcvelia qvedaeocenuri naleqebi (siRrme 3600-4000 m), xolo ninowmindis TaRze Suaeocenur naleqebSi Tavisufali gazi qmnis quds navTobSemcveli qanebis Tavze (siRrme 2450-2600 m). samgoris TaRze gazis maragebi (C1) Seadgens 0.9678 mlrd m3-s, ninowmindaSi ki Tavisufali gazis maragi (2P) 0.4966 mlrd m3-s utoldeba. jamSi, qveyanaSi Tavisufali gazis daZiebuli maragi (yofili sabWouri C1, C2 da dasavluri 2P kategoriaTa jami) 8.166 mlrd m3-s, xolo saprognozo resursi daaxloebiT 180 mlrd m3-s utoldeba.

daZiebuli maragis wliuri 1% mopovebis uzrunvelyofis SemTxvevaSi, qveyanaSi gazis mopovebam SeiZleba Seadginos daaxloebiT 82 mln m3/w. realurad ki, investiciebis naklebobis pirobebSi, salicenzio blokebis operatori kompaniebi ZiriTadad koncentrirebuli arian moqmedi sabadoebidan narCeni navTobis mopovebaze da arasaTanado yuradRebas uTmoben saZiebo da gazis maragebis mopovebis zrdaze orientirebuli samuSaoebis Catarebas. arsebuli prognozis Tanaxmad, gazis adgilobrivi mopoveba, ZiriTadad, moqmedi samgori-patarZeuli-ninowmindis gaznavTobis sabadodan, amJamindeli 10-12 mln m3-dan weliwadSi, 2015-2020 wlebisaTvis 25-28 mln m3-mde SeiZleba gaizardos. adgilobriv sabadoebze mopovebuli gazi komerciul fasad iyideba bazarze auqcionis meSveobiT.

arsebobs garkveuli perspeqtivebi aratradiciuli, fiqlebis gazis warmoebisaTvis saqarTveloSi34,35, rac, pirvel rigSi, dakavSirebulia kavkasionis samxreTi ferdobis qveda iuras naoWa sistemasTan. saboloo SefasebisaTvis, cxadia, saWiroa detaluri gamokvleva geologiuri informaciis da mopovebis Tanamedrove teqnologiebis efeqturi gamoyenebis SesaZleblobebis dasadgenad, Tanmdevi ekologiuri efeqtebis gaTvaliswinebiT36. gansaxilvel periodSi fiqlidan gazis mopovebis organizacia saqarTveloSi naklebad savaraudoa.

34 i.SeyrilaZe, m.TevzaZe, u.zviadaZe, saqarTvelos fiqalebi strategiuli energoresursebi xdeba, Tbilisi, 2009 35 m.margvelaSvili, fiqalis gazi –gamowveva saqarTvelosTvis, GIOGIE 2011, me-10 saerTaSoriso konferenciis masalebi, 2011 36 saqarTveloSi fiqlebidan navTobisa da gazis mopovebis perspeqtivebis Seswavla, sngk, Tbilisi, 2011 (avtorebi: T.goCitaSvili, s.RuduSauri, m.xuxia, n.baqraZe da T.lemonjava)

27

2.5.2.5.2.5.2.5. fasebis prognozifasebis prognozifasebis prognozifasebis prognozi moTxovna nebismier energetikuli resursze miwodebis teqnikur

SesaZleblobebTan erTad, damokidebulia momxmareblisaTvis misi Rirebulebis xelmisawvdomobaze, romelic Tavis mxriv TviT resursisa da miwodebis momsaxurebis fasebis asaxvas unda emsaxurebodes. moTxovna energoresursebze gansazRvravs fasebis mniSvnelovan cvalebadobas regionebis mixedviT, rac gansazRvrulia adgilobrivi pirobebiT, saTbobis saxeobebis urTierTCanacvlebis SesaZleblobiT, satransporto infrastruqturis xelmisawvdomobiTa da teqnikuri gamarTulobiT, energiis utilizaciis teqnologiebis efeqturobiT da a.S. gazis gasayid fasze gavlenas axdens misi Tbounarianoba da transportirebis danaxarjebi, gansakuTrebiT, did manZilebze transportirebisas. amasTan erTad, Tvisebrivad gansxvavebuli situaciaa gazis importior sxvadasxva qveyanaSi, romlebisTvisac gazis samarTlian komerciul fass zogjer momwodeblis mier gazis politikuri zewolis instrumentad gamoyenebis precendentebic emateba, ris gamoc, magaliTad, baltiispireTis qveynebsa da ukrainaSi rusuli gazis fasi ufro maRalia, vidre am qveynebidan bevrad ufro daSorebul centraluri evropis, ruseTis politikisadmi loialobiT gamorCeul qveynebSi

aRniSnulis gamo, navTobisagan gansxvavebiT, bunebrivi gazis metnaklebad Tanabari sabazro fasebi Tanamedrove msoflioSi ar arsebobs, da igi mniSvnelovanwilad regionuli TaviseburebebiTaa ganpirobebuli.

prognozis Tanaxmad, mimdinare dekadis ganmavlobaSi gazis fasi evropis bazarze isev SedarebiT maRali darCeba37, Tumca 2016 wlidan (ZiriTadi scenarisaTvis an 2022 wlis Semdeg - maRali fasebis scenarisaTvis), bazris sruli liberalizaciisa da konkurenciis gazrdis pirobebSi, CrdiloeT amerikuli bazris msgavsad, gazis fasis navTobis fasTan dakavSirebis amJamindeli praqtika Seicvleba spoturi garigebebiT dadgenili fasiT38 (daaxloebiT $(380-400)/1000 m3 doneze) da es tendencia stabilurad SenarCundeba momavalSic.

winaswari Sefasebis doneze damaimedeblad gamoiyureba saqarTvelos energetikul bazarze gazis sabiTumo39 komerciuli fasis cvalebadobis saprognozo dinamikac, rasac ZiriTadad ganapirobebs saqarTvelos xelsayreli geografiuli ganlageba mwarmoebel regionebis uSualo siaxloves evropis ZiriTadi momxmarebeli qveynebisagan gansxvavebiT. Sesabamisad, gazis fasi tradiciuladac da perspeqtivaSic naklebi iqneba saerTaSoriso bazris fasebze (minimum 50, rogorc wesi, 70-100 dolariT, transportirebisa da tranzitis minimaluri danaxarjebis gamo).

Sefasebis mizniT, mowodebis SesaZlo ZiriTadi wyaroebidan (rusuli “gazeqsporti”, azerbaijanis “sokarisa” da Sahdenizis) saqarTvelos gazis

37 Department of Energy & Climate Change (UK. Gov), Fossil Fuel Price Projections, www.decc.gov.uk, 2011) 38H.Rodgers, J.Stern, The transition to Hub-Based Pricing in Continental Europe, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2011 39gasagebi mizezebis gamo ganxilulia mxolod sabiTumo miwodebis fasi, romelic moqmedi kanonmdeblobis Tanaxmad sabazro urTierTobebiT regulirdeba. gazis sacalo miwodebis fasi bolo. e.w. “socialuri” momxmareblebisaTvis ki regulirebadia da sewmekis mier damuSavebuli meTodologiiT ganisazRvreba (ix. d. ComaxiZe, energetikis mdgradi ganviTarebis regulirebis principebi. teqnikuri universiteti, Tbilisi, 2012)

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bazris komerciul da regulirebad seqtorebSi importis moculobebisa da sakontraqto an savaraudo sabazro fasebis gaTvaliswinebiT dadgenil iqna saSualoSewonili sabiTumo fasebi da saqarTvelos (saxelmwifos an saxelmwifo kompaniebis) pirobiTi Semosavlebi.

bazarze gazis miwodebis arsebuli modeli iTvaliswinebs saSualedo mimwodeblebis momsaxurebas, “gazeqsportTan”, gtk-sTan, “sokarTan” da mis Svilobil kompaniebTan, BP-is mier kontrolirebad opciuri gazisa (Option Co) da azerbaijanis gazis gayidvis (AGSC) kompaniebTan amJamad moqmedi kontraqtebis safuZvelze.

gazis bazarze pirdapiri, saSuamavlo kompaniebis gareSe, miwodebis alternatuli scenaris mixedviT, deficiti jamur moTxovnasa da saxelmwifos mier kontrolirebad resursebs Soris (igulisxmeba tranzitis safasurad da SeRavaTian fasebSi Sesyiduli gazis moculobebi “gazeqsportidan” da opciuri gazisa da azerbaijanis gazis gayidvis kompaniebidan), SedarebiT Zvirad Rirebuli, sabazro fasiT SeZenili gaziT dabalanseba aris gaTvaliswinebuli. analizi aCvenebs, rom gazis sabiTumo miwodebis dReisaTvis gamoyenebuli sqema, romelic Sualedi kompaniebis momsaxurebas iTvaliswinebs bazris deficitis dabalansebisaTvis, praqtikulad umniSvnelo uaryofiT jamur komerciul efeqts warmoSobs alternatuli miwodebis sqemasTan SedarebiT. samagierod, grZelvadiani kontraqtis pirobebiT uzrunvelyofilia gazis garantirebuli mowodeba mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi da sezonur mowodebasa da moTxovnas Soris warmoSobili uTanabrobis dabalanseba, ris miRweva sakuTari ZalebiT amJamad SeuZlebelia gazsacavis araarsebobis gamo. socialuri TvalsazrisiT mowyvladi momxmareblis gazis regulirebad saboloo tarifSi sabiTumo fasis wilis Semcireba ki SesaZlebelia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu Seicvleba amJamad arsebuli fasis danamati tranzitis safasurad da SeRavaTian fasSi Sesyiduli gazis moculobebze da zomier minimumamde iqneba dayvanili saxelmwifos an saxelmwifo kompaniebis Semosavlebi (gonivruli danaxarjebis, maT Soris saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis, gaTvaliswinebiT). winasawari gaangariSeba adasturebs am gziT tarifis daregulirebis potencials, Tumca amisaTvis unda miRebul iqnas Sesabamisi politikuri gadawyvetileba (radgan aseTi gadawyvetileba negatiurad aisaxeba qveynis biujetsa da seqtorSi funqcionirebadi saxelmwifo kompaniebis Semosavlebze). zogadad ki, momavlSi, savaraudod dekadis dasasrulisaTvis, roca mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba Sah denizis sabados aTvisebis II faziT gaTvaliswinebuli mopoveba, Sesabamisad ki tranzitis moculobebi saqarTvelos gavliT da qveynis satranzito Semosavlebi, amasTan saqarTvelos SesaZlebloba eqneba TviTon ganaxorcilos moTxovnasa da miwodebas Soris warmoSobili sezonuri disbalansis menejmenti miwisqveSa gazsacavis meSveobiT, sasurveli iqneba kontraqtebis pirobebis gadaxedva, raTa Secvlili realiebis gaTvaliswinebiT SenarCundes partniorebs Soris Semosavlebis samarTliani gadanawilebis tendencia. kerZod, rogorc saerTaSoriso praqtika aCvenebs, mizanSewonilad unda iqnes miCneuli, tranzitis safasurad da SeRavaTian fasebSi Sesyiduli, agreTve, “sokaris”

29

(an sxva sabiTumo momwodeblebis) kuTvnili gazis pirdapiri miwodeba Siga sacalo bazarze komerciuli fasiT, saSuamavlo agent(eb)is gareSe, samagierod ki mniSvnelovnad Semcirdes rogorc gazis, ise eleqtroenergiis Rirebuleba mxolod faqtobrivad socialurad daucveli mosaxleobis nawilisaTvis (nacvlad SedarebiT mcire SeRavaTisa e.w. “socialuri”40 momxmareblebis farTo speqtrisaTvis, romelTa gansazRvris kriteriumi arc aris dasabuTebuli). aseT SemTxvevaSi uzrunvelyofili iqneba konkurentuli bazris Camoyalibebis pirobebi da saxelmwifo biujetisa da seqtorSi funqcionirebadi kompaniebis Semosavlebis mniSvnelovani zrda, im momxmareblis subsidirebidan gamoTavisuflebuli saxsrebiT, romlebic ar saWiroeben an ar imsaxureben aseT SeRavaTebs.

40 dRevandel pirobebSi “socialuri” momxmareblisTvis dawesebuli regulirebadi tarifiT gaTvaliswinebuli SeRavaTebiT maqsimalur sargebels iReben sayofacxovrebo seqtoris saSualo da maRali Semosavlebis mqone ojaxebi da zogierTi, saeqsporto produqciis mwarmoebeli sawarmo

30

3.3.3.3. gamowvevebi da problemebigamowvevebi da problemebigamowvevebi da problemebigamowvevebi da problemebi 3.1.3.1.3.1.3.1. energetikuli usafrTxoebaenergetikuli usafrTxoebaenergetikuli usafrTxoebaenergetikuli usafrTxoeba

saqarTvelo, iseve rogorc gardamavali ekonomikis sxva qveynebi, saWiroebs iaf energetikul resursebze mzardi moTxovnis dakmayofilebas, rac SeiZleba uzrunvelyofil iyos importul saTbobze damokidebulebis SemcirebiT, axali, energiadamzogi da ganaxlebadi resursebis aTvisebaze dafuZnebuli teqnologiebis gamoyenebiT, seqtoris struqturis Semdgomi modernizaciiT, bazris liberalizaciiTa da regionalur struqturebSi integraciiT. energoefeqtur teqnologiebsa da adgilobrivi resursebis prioritetul gamoyenebaze dafuZnebul energetikaze gadasvla, politikuri nebis garda, moiTxovs mniSvnelovan damatebiT investiciebs warmoebis, transportirebisa da Senaxvis (sarezervo) infrastruqturis saTanado mowyobisaTvis. amasTan, gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom rTuli da ZviradRirebuli gardamavali procesi warimarTeba globaluri krizisiT ganpirobebuli xelmisawvdomi kapitalis deficitisa da TviT qveynis SigniT mosaxleobis maRali umuSevrobisa da cxovrebis ukiduresad dabali donis pirobebSi, rac prioritets mianiWebs saxelmwifo dafinansebis, ZiriTadad, am mimarTulebiT mobilizebas, Tumca, energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa saqarTvelos, rogorc energoresursebis net importiori qveynis, energetikuli politikis kvlav erT-erT ZiriTad miznad SenarCundeba.

miuxedavad imisa, rom ukanasknel wlebSi ganxorcielebuli instituciuri da sakanonmdeblo reformebis safuZvelze garkveuli progresi iqna miRweuli qveynis energetikuli seqtoris modernizaciis mimarTulebiT, ekonomikis energotevadoba mowinave industriul qveynebTan SedarebiT jer kidev gacilebiT maRalia, xolo bazris sruli liberalizaciisa da regionul sistemebSi integraciis procesi dasrulebuli araa. Sedegad, saqarTvelos energetikuli usafrTxoeba garkveul situaciebSi SeiZleba saxifaTo gamowvevebis winaSe aRmoCndes, rasac xels uwyobs regionis myife politikuri stabiluroba da garedan Tavsmoxveuli ekonomikuri sabotaJis maRali albaTobac.

damoukidebeli saqarTvelos energetikis strategiuli prioritetebi jer kidev gasuli saukunis 90-ian wlebSi SemuSavda evrogaerTianebis ”tasisis” programis farglebSi41. qveynis imdroindeli ekonomikuri situacia da momavali politikuri orientaciis bundovaneba ganapirobebda bevr ganuzRvrelobas da arTulebda energetikis ganviTarebis momavali tendenciebis swor prognozirebas saSualo da grZelvadiani periodisaTvis. rekomendebuli politika, ZiriTadad, arsebuli, sabWoTa periodidan memkvidreobiT miRebuli energetikuli sistemis aRdgenaze iyo orientirebuli. garda amisa, bunebrivia, masSi ver aisaxeboda momdevno periodis is mniSvnelovani politikuri da ekonomikuri procesebi, rac regionSi saerTaSoriso satranzito proeqtebis ganviTarebasTan da saqarTvelos teritoriaze gamavali energetikuli satransporto nakadebis

41 saqarTvelos energetikuli politika, EC TACIS/EGE001, 1995

31

dominirebuli CrdiloeT-samxreTis veqtoris aRmosavleT-dasavleTis prioritetuli mimarTulebiT CanacvlebasTan iyo dakavSirebuli.

aSS saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos (USAID) xelSewyobiT, 2006 wels momzadda saqarTvelos gazis seqtoris strategia, romelSic Camoyalibebuli iyo mimdinare periodis tendenciebi da prioritetebi qveynis energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT42. naSromSi yuradReba gamaxvilebulia qveynis usafrTxo da xelmisawvdomi energetikuli resursebiT uzrunvelyofis perspeqtivaze sufTa komerciuli meTodebis gamoyenebiT, bazris bunebrivi gaziT momaragebis wyaroebze, fasebze, satranzito milsadenebze, strategiul sacavsa da sxva infrastruqturaze, agreTve saqarTvelos gazmomaragebis saimedoobaze moqmed sxvadasxva ekonomikur da geopolitikur faqtorze. xazgasmulia, rom radgan qveyana aris da kvlavac darCeba damokidebuli ZviradRirebuli importirebuli gazis mowodebaze xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi, Tavidan unda aviciloT seqtorSi monopolisturi struqturebis Camoyalibeba erTi kompaniis kontrolis qveS ZiriTadi saqmianobebis TavmoyriTa da infrastruqturis daqvemdebarebiT an strategiuli infrastruqturis gasxvisebiT, agreTve sabazro wesebis saerTaSoriso kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizaciisa da bazris sruli liberalizaciis meSveobiT, magram mas Semdeg, rac miRweuli iqneba konkurentuli bazris Camoyalibebis winapirobebi (wyaroebisa da marSrutebis diversifikacia, mowodebis saimedooba da a.S.). garda amisa, rekomendebulia adgilobrivi ganaxlebadi, kerZod, uxvi hidroresursebiT gazis maqsimaluri Canacvleba eleqtroenergiis generaciis saWiroebisaTvis.

2006 wels SemuSavda da damtkicda saxelmwifo politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi43 saqarTvelos energetikis seqtorisaTvis, romelic ZiriTad miznad isaxavda: a) qveynis mrewvelobis, sayofacxovrebo da komerciuli momxmareblebis

uzrunvelyofas eleqtruli energiiT adgilobrivi hidroresursebis

maqsimaluri utilizaciiTa da dasawyisSi adgilobrivi warmoebiT importis,

mogvianebiT ki gaziT warmoebuli elenergiis CanacvlebiT. amasTan, pirvel

etapze prioritetulad CaiTvala arsebuli infrastruqturisa da

generaciis saSualebebis reabilitacia da teqnikuri srulyofa, xolo

SemdgomSi axlebis mSenebloba da ganviTareba; b) importirebuli

resursebis mowodebis diversifikacias; g) sxva adgilobrivi, ganaxlebadi

resursebis (qaris, mzis, geoTermuli) gamoyenebis mizanSewonilobas da d)

qveynis energetikuli seqtoris integracias regionulTan, makavSirebeli

infrastruqturis ganviTarebiT, bazris liberalizaciiT, deregulirebiTa

da gamartivebuli wesebis SemoRebiT.

“saerTaSoriso gamWvirvaloba saqarTvelos” Sefasebis Tanaxmad,

dokumenti mxolod moklevadian politikas gansazRvravs44. garda amisa, ar

42 Natural Gas Strategy for Georgia, Part I: Analyses and Proposals by Paul Ballonov, Part II: Economic and Geopolitical Context by Teimuraz Gochitashvili, USAID, 2006 43 saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energetikuli politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi, 2007

32

aris dadgenili qveynis jamuri moTxovna pirvelad energetikul resursebze

da, Sesabamisad, gaurkveveli rCeba alternatuli ganaxlebadi

energoresursebisa da tradiciuli biosawvavis (SeSa) roli energetikul

balansSi. qveyanaSi ar arsebobs kanoniT dadgenili standartebi zRvrulad

dasaSvebi mavne emisiebis Sesaxeb, rac bundovans xdis adgilobrivi naxSiris

gamoyenebis perspeqtivebs energogeneraciis dros. dokumenti zogadad

aRiarebs energoefeqturobis amaRlebis kritikul mniSvnelobas, magram ar

miiCnevs am sakiTxs prioritetulad da ar gegmavs qveynis kanonmdeblobaSi

Sesabamis sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebs.

garda amisa, globaluri ekonomikuri krizisis, rusuli samxedro

agresiisa da sxva xelSemSleli pirobebis gamo, mniSvnelovnad SeizRuda

investiciebis mozidva da industriis aRdgena-ganviTarebis gegmebi, ramac

saTbob resursebze dagegmili moTxovnis mniSvnelovani Semcireba gamoiwvia

(magaliTisaTvis, 2011 wels saxelmwifo politikis ZiriTadi

mimarTulebebiT dagegmili iyo 3,5 mlrd m3, xolo gazis seqtoris

strategiis mixedviT daaxloebiT 3 mlrd m3 gazis jamuri mowodeba

saqarTveloSi, nacvlad faqtiuri 1,8 mlrd m3-sa) da, Sesabamisad,

ararealuri gaxada yvela adreuli saprognozo maCvenebeli, zogadad.

gasul xuTwleulSi ruseTTan urTierTobebis mkveTri gauaresebis Semdeg, situacia mniSvnelovnad garTulda qveynis energetikul seqtorSic. kerZod, 2006 wlis zamTris yvelaze civ periodSi 2 ZiriTadi mkvebavi gazsadenisa da maRali Zabvis eleqtrogadamcemi xazis afeTqebebis Semdeg ruseTis teritoriaze, saqarTvelo umZimesi socialuri da politikuri katastrofis saSiSroebis winaSe aRmoCnda. garda amisa, saqarTvelosaTvis ruseTis mier gazze samxreT kavkasiaSi yvelaze maRali, e.w. “politikuri fasis” dawesebiT (rac, rogorc wesi, daaxloebiT 30%-iT ufro maRali iyo somxeTSi miwodebul gazis fasTan SedarebiT, romelic gazs Cveni teritoriis gavliT iRebs da fass, logikurad, CvenTan tranzitis safasurad datovebuli gazis fasic unda daematos), saTburis pirobebi Seeqmna somxeTSi funqcionirebad im sawarmoebs, romlebsac rusuli kompaniebi ganagebdnen. es ki mkveTrad zRudavda imave produqciis mwarmoebeli msgavsi qarTuli kompaniebis konkurentunarianobas. ase magaliTad, imis gamo, rom mezobeli qveynebis cementis, metalurgiuli da qimiuri qarxnebi da Tboeleqtrosadgurebi saTbobsa da nedleuls (gazs) gacilebiT iafad iRebdnen, saqarTvelos samomxmareblo bazris dauSveblad didi segmenti daikava ucxouri warmoebis produqtma, xolo importirebuli elenergiis fasi ufro iafi gaxda sakuTar Tbosadgurebze warmoebul elenergiis fasTan SedarebiT.

energetikuli resursebiT qveynis garantirebuli momaragebisa da energetikuli usafrTxoebis problemebis xelaxali gaazreba da politikasa da samoqmedo gegmebSi realuri mdgomareobis adekvaturi koreqtivebis

44 Georgia’s Energy Policy, Transparency International Georgia, December 17, 2007

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Setanis aucilebloba ganapiroba, agreTve, saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis agvistos rusulma agresiam da movlenaTa Semdgomma ganviTarebam. mkveTrad gamoikveTa qveynis energousafrTxoebisa da perspeqtiuli satranzito proeqtebis realizaciis mimarTulebiT warmoCenili damatebiTi riskebi.

savaraudod, ruseTi kvlav Seecdeba gaagrZelos energoresursebis tranzitis saqarTveloze gamavali marSrutebis blokireba, raTa SeinarCunos kaspiis resursebis eqsportioris praqtikuli monopolistis statusi. aseT situaciaSi gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens politikuri gadawyvetilebebis miReba da Sesabamisi RonisZiebebis xelSewyoba qveynis regionul struqturebSi integraciisa da saerTaSoriso satranzito proeqtebSi maqsimaluri CarTvis mizniT, maT Soris, arsebuli sakanonmdeblo bazis harmonizaciis meSveobiT saerTaSoriso kanonmdeblobasTan energetikis sferoSi.

garda amisa, ukanasknel periodSi msoflio ekonomikaSi ganviTarebulma movlenebma, maT Soris naxSirwyalbadovan resursebze fasebis mkveTrma zrdam, bunebrivma da teqnogenurma katastrofebma da globaluri daTbobis uaryofiTma Sedegebma, moiTxova sawarmoo procesebisa da komerciul-sayofacxovrebo seqtorebis gadaudebeli pereorientacia energoefeqtur teqnologiebsa da energodamzog saSualebebze.

meore mxriv, maRali Zabvis gadamcemi, mezobel qveynebTan damakavSirebeli xazebis mSeneblobisa da energogeneraciis saSualebebis mniSvnelovani nawilis reabilitacia-modernizaciis samuSaoebis dasrulebiT, adgilobrivi hidroresursebis gamoyenebaze dafuZnebuli eleqtrogeneraciis proeqtebis realizaciis dawyebiT, gazis mowodebis alternatuli wyaroebisa da marSrutebis uzrunvelyofiT 2007 wlidan45 da Siga satransporto infrastruqturis mowesrigebiT, momwodeblebTan grZelvadiani da xelsayreli kontraqtebis arsebobiT, agreTve saTbobi resursebis sezonuri moxmarebis dabalansebis aucileblobis warmoSobis gamo, Camoyalibebulia winapirobebi strategiis ganaxlebisa da RonisZiebaTa dagegmvisaTvis qveynis energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT.

energousafrTxoebis Sesafaseblad, saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi, rogorc wesi energetikul mgrZnobelobas (energy vulnerability) mimarTaven46. energetikuli mgrZnobeloba (mowyvladoba) ganisazRvreba rogorc qveynis energomomaragebis sistemaze moqmedi SesaZlo garegani (egzogenuri) mavne faqtorebis uaryofiTi zemoqmedebis xarisxi mosaxleobis keTildReobaze da/an saxelmwifos teritoriul mTlianobaze an institutebis gamarTul funqcionirebaze47. am TvalsazrisiT mniSvnelovania energetikul mowyvladobasa da Sesabamisad energetikul usafrTxoebaze, zemoqmedi

45azerbaijanidan gazis mowodeba uzrunvelyofilia Sah denizis sabadodan samxreT kavkasiuri milsadeniT, xolo saxelmwifo kompania “sokaris” kuTvnili sabadoebidan azerbaijan-saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemiT 46 Christie, E. “Energy vulnerability and EU-Russia energy relations”, Journal of Contemprorary European Research, Vol. 5, No. 2, August 2009, pp. 274-292 47 Energy vulnerability defined as “The extent to which adverse exogenous events with respect to country's energy supply system may detrimentally affect the welfare of population and/or integrity of the State, its territory or its institutions” (Christie, E. 2009)

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potenciuri riskebisa da safrTxeebis gansazRvra zogadad (ix. cxrili) da, kerZod, saqarTvelosTvis.

cxrili: riskebisa da safrTxeebis zogadi klasifikacia riskebiriskebiriskebiriskebi safrTxeebisafrTxeebisafrTxeebisafrTxeebi moklevadianimoklevadianimoklevadianimoklevadiani mr1.mr1.mr1.mr1. avariebi da bunebrivi

katastrofebi ms1.ms1.ms1.ms1. mowodebis gaTiSva (momwodebeli an tranzitori qveynis mier)

mr2mr2mr2mr2. arasakmarisi sasawyobo moculobebi/dasawyobebuli maragi

ms2.ms2.ms2.ms2. blokada/akrZalva (konkurenti an mtrulad ganwyobili qveynis mier)

mr3.mr3.mr3.mr3. fasebis mkveTri cvlileba miwodeba-moxmarebis disbalansis gamo

ms3.ms3.ms3.ms3. diversia/Tavdasxma kritikul infrastruqturul obieqtze

grZelvadianigrZelvadianigrZelvadianigrZelvadiani gr1.gr1.gr1.gr1. arasakmarisi investicia mopovebiT an satransporto biznesSi

gs1.gs1.gs1.gs1. strategiuli energetikuli aqtivebis gadacema ucxo qveynisTvis

gr2.gr2.gr2.gr2. aramdgradi moTxovna importior da/an eqsportior qveyanaSi

gs2.gs2.gs2.gs2. sarisko daTmobebi (SeTanxmebebi) ucxoel partniorebTan

gr3.gr3.gr3.gr3. arasakmarisi maragi eqsportior qveyanaSi an globaluri masStabiTY

gs3.gs3.gs3.gs3. energetikuli politikis araadeqvaturoba

qvemoT moyvanilia saqarTvelos bunebrivi gazis seqtorSi aRniSnuli riskebisa da safrTxeebis Sefasebis Sedegebi pirobiTi xuTbaliani sistemis gamoyenebiT.

cxrili: mowyvladobis ganmapirobebeli riskebi da safrTxeebi riski/ riski/ riski/ riski/ safrTxesafrTxesafrTxesafrTxe

umniSvnelo umniSvnelo umniSvnelo umniSvnelo (1)(1)(1)(1)

dabali dabali dabali dabali (2)(2)(2)(2)

saSualo saSualo saSualo saSualo (3)(3)(3)(3)

maRali maRali maRali maRali (4)(4)(4)(4)

kritikuli kritikuli kritikuli kritikuli (5)(5)(5)(5)

mr1mr1mr1mr1 mr2mr2mr2mr2 mr3mr3mr3mr3 ms1ms1ms1ms1 ms2ms2ms2ms2 ms3ms3ms3ms3 gr1gr1gr1gr1 gr2gr2gr2gr2 gr3gr3gr3gr3 gs1gs1gs1gs1 gs2gs2gs2gs2 gs3gs3gs3gs3

rogorc Cans, yvelaze kritikuli situaciis Camoyalibeba gazis seqtorSi SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos strategiuli maragis ararsebobasTan, rac ganapirobebs sistemis moqnilobis gansakuTrebiT dabal dones, maSin rodesac qveyana TiTqmis mTlianad importirebul saTbobze aris damokidebuli da energetikul balansSi, gazs, importirebul navTobproduqtebTan erTad, wamyvani roli aqvs dakisrebuli. strategiuli gazsacavis mSenebloba da navTobproduqtebis soliduri rezervis uzrunvelyofa aseTi riskis Serbilebis saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi adaptirebuli xerxebia da evrokavSiris kanonmdeblobis moTxovnebiTac

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aris gamyarebuli (energetikuli Tanamegobrobis qveynebisaTvis moTxovnileba strategiuli maragebis aucileblobis Sesaxeb amoqmeddeba 2023 wlis 1 ianvridan48, evrokavSiris ZiriTadi wevri qveynebisaTvis ki aseTi norma ukve ZalaSia).

riskebis Serbilebis qmediTi RonisZiebaa, agreTve, strategiul da socialurad mowyvlad energetikul obieqtebze saTbobis moklevadiani Canacvlebis SesaZleblobis uzrunvelyofa, magaliTad gazis Txevadi sawvaviT (maT Soris strategiuli sacavidan). aseve, hesebis maregulirebeli rezervuarebis saproeqto moculobebis reabilitacia da racionaluri aTviseba, SesaZleblobas iZleva mniSvnelovnad gaizardos qveynis energomomaragebis usafrTxoeba da daizogos aTeul milionobiT danaxarjebi zamTris kritikul periodSi eleqtroenergiis Warbi moTxovnis dakmayofilebisaTvis maTi potencialis gamoyenebis meSveobiT, nacvlad deficituri bunebrivi gazis (an eleqtroenergiis) importis gazrdisa Tbogeneraciis obieqtebis gazrdili moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad.

sakmaod maRalia kritikuli situaciis Camoyalibebis albaToba avariebisa da bunebrivi katastrofebis, strategiuli infrastruqturis ucxouri kompaniebisaTvis daTmobisa da ucxoel partniorebTan dadebuli grZelvadiani sarisko SeTanxmebebis gamo. aRniSnuli ganpirobebulia saqarTvelos landSaftis TaviseburebebiTa da magistraluri milsadenebis nawilis dabali saimedoobiT (maT Soris siZvelis gamo), distribuciis ZiriTadi saSualebebis koncentrirebiT ucxouri saxelmwifo kompaniebis xelSi (“sokari”, “yaztransgazi”) da maTTan dadebuli xelSekrulebebis efeqtianobis ganWvretis sirTuliT grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi.

infrastruqturis sistemuri saimedoobis amaRleba interkonektorebis gamoyenebiTa da arsebuli satransporto, maT Soris transsasazRvro, sistemebis efeqturi reabilitacia/rekonstruqciis bazaze, erTi mxriv, da bazris Semdgomi liberalizacia da gaxsna realuri konkurenciis xelSemwyobi da monopolisturi struqturebis Camoyalibebis sawinaaRmdego sakanonmdeblo iniciativebis meSveobiT, meore mxriv, aRniSnuli riskebisa da safrTxeebis Semcirebis yvelaze ufro realuri saSualeba SeiZleba gaxdes.

energetikis ganviTarebis strategiis SemuSavebis dros gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda gamaxvildes adgilobrivi, maT Soris pirvel yovlisa ganaxlebad resursebis prioritetul aTvisebasa da energoefeqturobis amaRlebaze, agreTve transsasazRvro infrastruqturis Semdgom srulyofasa da ganviTarebaze, riTac uzrunvelyofili iqneba rogorc resursebis saxeobisa da wyaroebis, ise mowodebis marSrutebis diversifikacia. aseTi strategia minimumamde Seamcirebs saSualo da dabali mowyvladobis faqtorebis (ix. cxrili) mavne zemoqmedebis SesaZleblobas bazris gamarTul funqcionirebaze. amasTan erTad, aucileblad unda iqnes gaTvaliswinebuli, rom qveynisaTvis prioritetuli hidroenergetikuli seqtorisaTvis kritikuli riskebisa da safrTxeebis Semcvelia bunebriv

48 Directive 2009/119/EC 14/09-2009, imposing an obligation on Member States an obligation to maintain minimumn stocks of crude oil and /or petroleum products

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(ara marto) katastrofebTan dakavSirebuli avariebis maRali albaToba49, asimetruli sezonuri utilizaciis SesaZlebloba, mniSvnelovani strategiuli obieqtebis floba ucxouri kompaniebis mier da a.S. Sesabamisad, energetikuli sistemebis mdgradobis amaRlebis prioritetul mimarTulebebad bazris Semdgom deregulirebasTan erTad, unda CaiTvalos generaciisa da transmisiis sitemebis stabilizacia sarezervo, ZiriTadad gazze momuSave, generaciis saSualebebiT da sistemis mezobeli qveynebis sistemebTan paralelur reJimSi muSaobis uzrunvelyofiT makavSirebeli gadamcemi xazebis meSveobiT.

3.2.3.2.3.2.3.2. kanonmdebloba da regionukanonmdebloba da regionukanonmdebloba da regionukanonmdebloba da regionulllli integraciai integraciai integraciai integracia saqarTvelom evropul politikur da ekonomikur struqturebSi

integrirebis gza airCia. Sesabamisad, qveynis energetikuli politikis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizani evrokavSiris energetikuli politikis principebTan da mimarTulebebTan daaxloebaa Sesabamisi kanonmdeblobis harmonizaciis meSveobiT.

sakanonmdeblo da instituciuri struqturebis harmonizaciis procesi intensiurad daiwyo saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan samezoblo politikis, mogvianebiT ki aRmosavleT partniorobis programasTan50 SeerTebis Semdeg. 2006 wlis noemberSi miRebul iqna e.w. sagzao ruka energetikis sferoSi evrokavSirTan gafarToebuli TanamSromlobis farglebSi51. sagzao rukis erT-erT ZiriTad orientirs warmoadgens energobazrebis daaxloeba evrokavSiris Sida energetikuli bazrebis principebis safuZvelze, romlis drosac gaTvaliswinebuli iqneba partniori qveynebis Taviseburebebi. grZelvadiani amocana energetikis integrirebuli regionuli bazris Seqmna da maTi evrokavSiris Sida energetikul bazarTan maqsimaluri integrirebaa.

bazris liberalizaciisa da evrokavSiris energetikul kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizaciis procesi gansakuTrebiT aqtualuri gaxda saqarTvelos energetikul TanamegobrobaSi (Energy Community) damkvirveblis statusiT gaerTianebis Semdeg 2007 wlis dekembridan. TanamegobrobaSi gawevrianebis ZiriTadi mizani evrokavSiris standartebis da regulaciebis ganxorcileba da mis erTian energetikul qselTan saqarTvelos mierTebaa, rac xels Seuwyobs qveynis energousafrTxoebis amaRlebasa da satranzito potencialis maqsimalur aTvisebas.

integraciis procesi axal fazaSi Sevida 2010 wlidan, evrokavSirTan asocirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebaze molaparakebebis dawyebis Semdeg, romlis erT-erTi ZiriTadi amocana evrokavSiris energetikuli seqtoris Sida bazrebis mowyobisa da regulirebis principebTan saqarTvelos Tanmimdevruli daaxloeba-harmonizaciaa.

49gansakuTrebiT sariskoa aseTi katastrofebi msxvilmasStabiani hidroenergetikuli obieqtebisaTvis, romlebic mSeneblobis dros garemoze SesaZlo mavne zemoqmedebis maRali potencialiTac gamoirCeva 50aRmosavleT partniorobis programa aerTianebs evrokavSiris wevr 27 qveyanas da 6 mezobel qveyanas aRmosavleTiT: belarusi, ukraina, moldaveTi, saqarTvelo, somxeTi da azerbaijani 51 Road map for the energy co-operation between the EU, the Littoral States of the Black and Caspian Seas and their neighboring countries, Annex 1, Astana, 30th November, 2006.

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aRmosavleT partniorobis programis me-3 platforma – “garemos dacva, klimatis cvlileba da energetikuli usafrTxoeba” koncentrirebulia partnior qveynebTan urTierTobis 4 ZiriTad mimarTulebaze52:

1. sabazo struqturebi da solidaroba53; 2. infrasruqturis, interkonektorebisa da miwodebis diversifikaciis

xelSewyoba; 3. energoefeqturobis amaRlebisa da ganaxlebadi energoresursebis

gamoyenebis xelSewyoba; 4. sakanonmdeblo bazisa da energetikuli politikis daaxloeba. programis relizaciisaTvis 2014 wlamde periodisaTvis gamoyofilia 600

mln evro, maT Soris 175 mln evro institucionaluri mowyobis, 75 mln evro sapiloto proeqtebisaTvis, danarCeni 350 mln evro ki sainvesticio proeqtebis implementaciisaTvis. garda aRniSnulisa, aRmosavleT partniorobis programis 2011 wlis samitze, varSavaSi, gadawyda damatebiTi dafinansebis gamoyofa evropuli samezoblo da sapartnioro instrumentis (ENPI) farglebSi54, ZiriTadad INOGATE programiT gaTvaliswinebuli proeqtebis mxardaWeris meSveobiT, romelTa pirveli rigis amocanad ganisazRvra energoregulirebis, energetikuli standartebisa da kanonmdeblobis harmonizacia, energoefeqturobisa da ganaxlebadi energetikis mxardaWera.

TiToeuli partniori qveyana (somxeTis garda), misTvis damaxasiaTebeli specifikis miuxedavad, mniSvnelovan rols asrulebs evrokavSirisa da zogadad saerTaSoriso energetikuli bazris usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis sakiTxSi (saqarTvelo, kerZod, moiazreba azerbaijanuli da centraluri aziis sabadoebis navTobisa da gazis evropaSi miwodebis erT-erT ZiriTad marSrutad, rac ganapirobebs qveynisadmi evrokavSiris gansakuTrebul interess). Sesabamisad, SeTavazebulia urTierTpartniorobis farTo speqtri – bazris praqtikulad sruli integraciidan SedarebiT “rbil” urTierTobebamde damoukidebeli ormxrivi SeTanxmebebis safuZvelze. miuxedavad aRniSnulisa, evrokavSiris survilia yvela partniorma qveyanam, gamonaklisis gareSe, uzrunvelyos evrokavSiris energetikul bazrebTan dakavSirebuli iuridiuli valdebulebebis nacionalur kanonmdeblobaSi asaxva. energetikuli sakanonmdeblo urTierTobebis daaxloeba-harmonizacia gaerTianebasTan kooperaciisa da reformebis Sefasebis erT-erT ZiriTad kriteriumad iTvleba.

saqarTvelos, sxva partnior qveynebTan erTad, aqvs mravalmilioniani mxardamWeri fondebidan dafinansebis miRebis SesaZlebloba qveynis energetikul usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli strategiuli proeqtebisa da bazarze konkurenciis SeuzRudavi da gamWvirvale pirobebis Camosayalibeblad, ris saSualebasac iZleva evropul energetikul bazarTan daaxloeba-integraciis ZiriTadi principebis implementacia,

52 The EU and its Eastern Partners: Energy Needs and Future Prospects, European Parliament, Directorate-General for External Policies, Policy Department, 2012 53somxeTisa da belorusis mier dakavebuli poziciis gamo muSaoba am mimarTulebiT jer-jerobiT gadadebulia 54 EuropeAid. Update on Eastern Partnership Implementation. EaP Summit, 29-30 September, 2011, Warsaw. http://eeas. europa.eu/easten/docs/2011 eap implementation en.pdf

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adgilobrivi specifikiT ganpirobebuli saTanado adaptaciis meqanizmebis aucilebeli gaTvaliswinebiT.

energetikuli seqtoris zogierTi sakvanZo obieqtis SesaZlo kontroli oligopoluri struqturebis mier da evrokavSirTan uSualo saxmeleTo geografiuli sazRvris araarseboba, mTavari savaraudo xelSemSleli faqtorebia problemis warmatebiT gadawyvetis gzaze. qveynis xelmZRvanelobis politikuri nebisa da aqtiuri mxardaWeris gareSe, rac saqarTvelos sakvanZo geostrategiuli mdebareobiT da amasTan dakavSirebiT, zogierTi mezobeli qveynis destruqciuli moqmedebiT SeiZleba iyos ganpirobebuli, regionul da evropul energetikul bazrebTan integraciis gadaudebeli procesi SeiZleba gaumarTleblad gaxangrZlivdes.

evrokavSiris energetikuli politika gazis (iseve rogorc eleqtroenergetikis) seqtorSi dafuZnebulia 3 fuZemdeblur principze: konkurencia, mdgradi ganviTareba da miwodebis usafrTxoeba.

mdgradi ganviTareba dakavSirebulia globaluri klimatis cvlilebebiT inicirebuli negatiuri movlenebiT, romelTa SerbilebisaTvis evrokavSirma SeimuSava dierqtivebi 20:20:20 koncefciis (2020 wlisaTvis pirveladi energiis 20%-is uzrunvelyofa ganaxlebadi resursebiT da enegoefeqturobis zrda 20%-iT) realizaciis mizniT.

miwodebis usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT evrokavSiri am problemisadmi miZRvnili direqtivebiT uzrunvelyofs gansakuTrebuli moTxovnebis dacvas yvela partniori qveynis mier.

jansaRi konkurenciis uzrunvelyofis mizniT evrokavSiri gegmavs erTiani Siga energetikuli bazris Camoyalibebis procesis dasrulebas, romelic faqtobrivad 1986 wels daiwyo erTiani evropuli aqtis (SEA) miRebiT. aqti yuradRebas amaxvilebda eleqtroenergetikul da bunebrivi gazis bazrebze konkurenciis naklebobaze da moiTxovda Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo procesis dawyebas.

1990 wels evrokavSiris 90/347/EEC direqtiviT dadginda procedurebi samrewvelo momxmareblebisaTvis gazisa da eleqtrobis fasebis gamWvirvalobis uzrunvelyofis mizniT (1st Price Transparency Directive). amave periodSi SemuSavda direqtiva 90/547/EEC, romelic exeba gadamcemi qselebiT eleqtroenergiis Tavisufali tranzitis uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebs.

1996 wels ZalaSi Sevida direqtiva eleqtroenergiis Siga bazris wesebis, 1998 wels ki gazis Siga bazris wesebis Sesaxeb (1st Electricity Directive – 96/92/EC da 1st Gas Directive – 98/30/EC). direqtivebiT dawesda nacionaluri bazrebis gaxsnis savaldebulo minimaluri moTxovnebi, maT Soris msxvili samrewvelo sawarmoebisa da eleqtrogeneraciis obieqtebis daSvebis valdebuleba gazis konkurentul mimwodeblebTan da qselze mesame mxaris daSvebis ZiriTadi pirobebi.

evrokavSiris pirveli energetikuli direqtivebis ZiriTadi daniSnuleba iyo Siga bazarze fasTa sxvaobis maqsimaluri gaTanabreba da Semcireba, konkurentuli garemos Camoyalibebis safuZvelze, aSS da britaneTis gaerTianebuli samefos liberalizebuli bazrebis analogiurad. praqtikaSi maTi implementaciis sirTulisa da

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gamomJRavnebuli naklovanebebis gamo, 2003 wels moxda maTi Canacvleba eleqtroenergiisa da gazis me-2 direqtivebiT (Directives 2003/54/EC da 2003/55/EC). axali direqtivebis ZiriTadi moTxovnebi iyo: miwodebisa da qseluri momsaxurebis saqmianobaTa ganmxoloeba, nacionaluri maregulirebeli organoebis Camoyalibebis erTiani kriteriumebis SemuSaveba da miweriloba arasayofacxovrebo momxmareblis daSvebis Sesaxeb nebismier sacalo mimwodebelze 2004 wlis 1 ivlisidan da yvela momxmareblisaTvis – 2007 wlis 1 ivlisidan.

aRniSnuli direqtivebi 2009 wels Canacvlda ufro srulyofili da yovlismomcveli me-3 energetikuli paketis direqtivebiT, romlebic ayalibeben 2014 wlisaTvis evrokavSiris erTiani eleqtroenergiisa da bunebrivi gazis bazrebis Camoyalibebis procesis dasrulebis pirobebs, agreTve, Tavazoben partnior mxareebs bazrebis sanimuSo modelebs.

zogadad evrokavSiris energetikuli direqtivebisa da reglamentebis (Regulations) ZiriTadi daniSnulebaa erTiani, konkurenciaze damyarebuli energetikuli bazris Camoyalibeba SeTanadebuli tarifebiT, rac xels Seuwyobs energetikuli resursebis transsasazRvro moZraobas, Tavisufal vaWrobas maqsimaluri gamWvirvalobis pirobebSi, mesame mxaris Seuferxebel da aradiskriminebul daSvebas arsebul infrastruqturaze, TiToeuli qveynisa da mTlianad gaerTianebis energetikul usafrTxoebas.

praqtikulma gamocdilebam aCvena, rom transportirebisa da sabiTumo miwodebisa da vaWrobis ganmxoloebiT miRebulma dadebiTma efeqtma, rac konkurentul garemoSi fasebis SemcirebaSi aisaxa, mniSvnelovnad gadaaWarba manamde arsebul, vertikalurad integrirebuli saqmianobiT uzrunvelyofil pozitiur efeqts. miuxedavad aRniSnulisa, bazris liberalizaciisa da konkurentuli garemos Camoyalibebis procesi evropaSi sakmaod rTulad mimdinareobda. nacionaluri bazrebis yofili dominanti an monopoluri, msxvili integrirebuli kompaniebi, romlebic oficialuri samTavrobo mxardaWeriTac sargebloben, swrafad axerxeben adaptacias axal pirobebTan sxvadasxva, zogjer fsevdo restruqturizaciis, Serwymisa da aqtivebis SeZenis an piriqiT, gankargvis, meSveobiT. isini faqtobrivad agrZeleben integrirebuli xasiaTis saqmianobebis meSveobiT funqcionirebas gazmomaragebis mTliani jaWvis mocviT, amasTan ara marto nacionalur, aramed xSirad sxva qveynebis bazrebzec55. paraleluri procesebi mimdinareobs SedarebiT mcire, nacionaluri masStabis privilegirebul kompaniebSic. restruqturizaciis sxvadasxva formis gamoyenebiT isini axerxeben gainawilon msxvil saerTaSoriso kompaniebTan adgilobrivi bazris zogierTi saqmianoba da SeinarCunon uwindeli dominantis funqciebi. qvemoT gaanalizebulia saqarTvelos energetikuli bazris sakanonmdeblo bazis Sedareba evrokavSiris bazris funqcionirebis principebTan56.

55 C.Shuke, The EU’s Major Electricity and Gas Utilities since Market Liberalization (Comprehensive review and case studies), IFRI, 2010 56 V.Jankauskas, T.Gochitashvili, G.Abulashvili, Development of Georgian Electricity and Gas Markets in Line with the EU Energy Policy, Georgian Economic Trends, GEPLAC, Quartelry Review, February, 2008

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kanoni eleqtroenergiisa da bunebrivi airis Sesaxeb ZiriTadi iuridiuli dokumentia, romelic aregulirebs saqmianobas saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiisa da gazis seqtorSi. evrokavSiris wevr qveynebSi eleqtroenergiisa da gazis Sesaxeb moqmed kanonebTan SedarebiT, saqarTvelos kanoni Zalze did mniSvnelobas aniWebs energetikis saministrosa da, gansakuTrebiT, komisiis rolebisa da funqciebis gansazRvras, magram ar aRwers bazris saqmianobis wesebsa da pirobebs. Tumca, zogjer, aseTi midgomac iTvleba misaRebad, radgan Tu sxvadasxva saxelmwifo institutis uflebamosilebebi mkafiod aris gansazRvruli, maT eZlevaT saSualeba, SeimuSavon da/an daamtkicon iseTi ganmaxorcielebeli debulebebi, romlebic uzrunvelyon bazris funqcionirebis mdgradobasa da moqnilobas mkafio da gamWvirvale principebis safuZvelze.57 kanonis sxva ZiriTadi ganmasxvavebeli niSnebi evropul direqtivebTan SedarebiT, SeiZleba Semdegnairad Camoyalibdes: saTanadod ar aris gansazRvruli momxmareblis dacvisa da saxelmwifos mxridan socialurad daucveli fenis sazogadoebrivi momsaxurebis gawevis valdebuleba, ar aris dadgenili socialurad daucveli momxmareblis kategoria; ar aris gansazRvruli energiis dazogvis konkretuli samizno valdebulebebi; ar aris saTanadod gamokveTili miwodebis gansazRvreba da, Sesabamisad, saqarTvelos realobaSi es, Tavisi arsiT konkurentuli saqmianoba aRreulia monopoliuri xasiaTis ganawilebis saqmianobasTan; moTxovna sxvadasxva regulirebadi saqmianobis gancalkevebis Sesaxeb, ara marto aRricxvianobis, aramed marTvis da eqspluataciis gamijvnasac (iuridiuli da funqcionaluri gamijvna) unda moicavdes, romelsac garkveul etapze SeiZleba evropuli kanonmdeblobiT rekomendebuli sakuTrebis gamijvnis moTxovnac moyves. zogadad ki, evropuli kanonmdebloba ar moiTxovs gazis seqtorSi savaldebulo mflobelobiT dayofas gamanawilebeli kompaniebisaTvis, Tumca dayofis sxva SemTxvevebSi (finansuri, mmarTvelobiTi, iuridiuli) rekomendacias uwevs iseTi damatebiTi maregulirebeli meqanizmebis SemoRebis aucileblobas, romelic gamoricxavs SesaZlo arajansaR sabazro qmedebebs.

saqarTvelos energetikul seqtorSi saxelmwifo politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebi gansazRvravs energetikis grZelvadiani politikis ZiriTad amocanebs. Ddokumenti, aseve, gansazRvravs konkurenciisaTvis bazris Tanmimdevruli gaxsnis ganrigs, romelic sasurvelia iTvaliswinebdes evrokavSiris me-3 energetikuli paketis Sesabamis debulebebs, rac SeiZleba savaldebulo gaxdes ganxorcielebisaTvis asocirebis xelSekrulebis moTxovnebis da/an energetikul TanamegobrobaSi gawevrianebis SemTxvevaSi da aisaxos Sesabamis kanonSic, evrokavSiris direqtivebis analogiurad, rac ufro met garantias uzrunvelyofs potenciuri investorebisaTvis.

formalurad saqarTvelos energetikul bazarze sxvadasxva tipis saqmianoba gamijnulia erTmaneTisagan (garda sacalo miwodebisa da distribuciisa). rogorc wesi, sxvadasxva funqcionaluri daniSnulebis kompaniebis operatiuli saqmianoba da finansuri angariSgebis sakiTxebi

57 T.Gochitashvili, M.Krakauskas, G.Abulashvili, Georgia in the context of EU energy policy, GEPLAC, Georgian Economic Trends, Quarterly review, June 2006

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gancalkevebulia erTmaneTisagan, Tumca rekomendebuli evropuli modelisagan gansxvavebiT, maT SeiZleba erTi da igive mesakuTreebi hyavdeT (saxelmwifo uwyeba da kompaniebi, “Telasi”, “SOCAR” da Svilobili kompaniebi, da a.S.). aseve, magaliTad, “yaztransgaz Tbilisis” da sxva gamanawilebeli kompaniebis SemTxvevaSi, erTi da igive kompania akontrolebs rogorc distribuciis, ise miwodebis saqmianobebs, rac konkurentuli sabazro principebidan uxeS gadaxvevad SeiZleba CaiTvalos. evropuli kanonmdebloba, magaliTad, gansazRvravs licenzirebul damoukidebel momwodeblebs, romlebsac ufleba aqvT, Seisyidon energia nebismieri mwarmoeblisagan da mihyidon igi nebismier uflebamosil momxmarebels, magram isini ar arian CarTuli distribuciaSi, riTac uzrunvelyofilia konkurentuli (miwodeba) da monopoliuri (distribucia) saqmianobebis gancalkeveba da am ori saqmianobis urTierTsubsidirebis Tavidan acileba. Sesabamisad, aseT SemTxvevaSi aucilebelia iuridiuli da funqcionaluri gamijvna. Tumca, amave dros aucilebelia aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos bazarze kanoniT mocul saqmianobebs Soris ganixileba mesame mxaris kuTvnili gazis gatarebis valdebulebac ganawilebis licenziantis qselis meSveobiT da aregulirebs masTan dakavSirebul teqnikur, komerciul da finansurs sakiTxebs, rac nawilobriv aRmofxvris arsebul Seusabamobas.

mxolod sacalo miwodebisa da distribuciis saqmianobaTa realuri ganmxoloeba Camoayalibebs xelsayrel pirobebs umravlesi sacalo momxmareblebisaTvis dadon pirdapiri kontraqtebi nebismier momwodeblebTan da izrunon sacalo miwodebisa da distribuciis tarifebis optimizaciisaTvis.

mniSvnelovani rolis Sesruleba SeuZlia saxelmwifos kuTvnili energetikuli obieqtebis gonivruli privatizaciisa da seqtorSi kerZo mflobelobis institutis Camoyalibebis xelSewyobis politikis gagrZelebasac. Tumca, amasTan erTad, saWiroa yovelmxriv Sewonili da gamWvirvale gadawyvetilebebis miReba strategiul mniSvnelobis energetikuli infrastruqturis obieqtebis privatizebis procesSi.

sakanonmdeblo moTxovniT unda gaxdes savaldebulo agreTve mkafio saxelmZRvanelo dokumentis (instruqciis) SemuSaveba, momxmareblis mier momwodeblis Secvlis (SerCevis), momsaxurebis xarisxisa da momxmarebelTa saCivrebis ganxilvis procedurebis Sesaxeb, rogorc es saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi aris miRebuli.

rogorc analizi aCvenebs, saqarTveloSi moqmed kanonmdebloba nawilobriv ar Seesabameba direqtivebSi mocemuli ZiriTadi debulebebs, zogierTi debuleba ki sruliad axalia qarTuli kanonmdeblobisaTvis da detalur, kompleqsur da maRal kompetentur Seswavlas moiTxovs maTi samoqmedod SemoRebisaTvis saboloo rekomendaciebis mosamzadeblad.

aRsaniSnavia, rom evropuli reglamentiT zogierT SemTxvevaSi,

Sesabamisi dasabuTebis safuZvelze, dasaSvebia garkveuli SeRavaTebis

daweseba, maT Soris im pirobebSi, roca sakiTxi exeba qveynis energetikuli

usafrTxoebisTvis damatebiTi riskis warmoSobis albaTobas. saqarTvelos

asocireba/integraciis SemTxvevaSi evrokavSiris Sesabamis struqturebTan

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qveyanam aucileblad unda gaiTvaliswinos aseTi SesaZlebloba, agreTve

reglamentis zogierTi moTxovnis gauvrceleblobis piroba adre

xelmoweril saerTaSoriso, magaliTad, satranzito xelSekrulebebze da

zogierTi normis gauvrceleblobis ufleba iseT proeqtebze, romelTa

regulireba scildeba misi kompetenciis farglebs (magaliTad, samxreT

kavkasiur gazsadenze, baqo-Tbilis-jeihanis navTobsadenze da a.S.).

garda amisa, saqarTvelosTvis mniSvnelovania SeinarCunos ufleba

awarmoos molaparakebebi dainteresebul mxareebTan da satranzito

tarifebis tipisa (maT Soris, naturiT anazRaurebis) da raodenobis

dawesebis Taobaze individualurad, yoveli axali proeqtisaTvis, radgan

evropuli kanonmdebloba praqtikulad auqmebs satranzito gadasaxadis

mcnebas da ar iTvaliswinebs axali transnacionaluri proeqtebis

realizaciis politikur Sedegebs saqarTvelosaTvis.

savaraudod, saqarTvelo gaagrZelebs evrokavSiris energetikul

kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizaciis process da im dadebiT Sedegebsac

miiRebs, romlebic evropas moutana bazrebis liberalizaciam. magram,

rogorc analizi aCvenebs, qveynis energetikuli seqtoris institucionalur

mowyobasa da maregulirebel kanonmdeblobaSi arsebobs garkveuli

winaaRmdegobebi Sesabamisi evropuli reglamentebis moTxovnebTan

SedarebiT, romelTa umtkivneulo adaptaciisaTvis momzadeba Zalze

seriozuli da gadaudebeli amocanaa. problema ZiriTadad exeba arsebuli

satranzito proeqtebis sargebliani pirobebis SenarCunebis samarTlebrivi

meqanizmebis gansazRvras, energetikul bazarze konkurentuli da

monopolisturi saqmianobebis efeqturi gamijvnis sakiTxebs da a.S.

3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3. mniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebimniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebimniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebimniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebi mowodebis diversifikaciis pirobebSi gadamwyveti mniSvneloba eniWeba

sxvadasxva wyaros potencialis maqsimalur aTvisebas da gansxvavebuli xarisxis gazis damoukidebeli miRebis uzrunvelyofas yvela ZiriTadi msxvili momxmareblis mier da sistemis struqturuli saimedoobis amaRlebas. am mizniT aucilebelia gagrZeldes saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis etapobrivi aRdgena-rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis samuSaoebi. moklevadian perspeqtivaSi prioritetulad gansaxorcielebel proeqtebs SeiZleba miekuTvnos interkonektorebi saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenis sxvadasxva mimarTulebis ganStoebebis urTierTdasakavSireblad da aRmosavleT-dasavleTi mimarTulebis kritikuli monakveTebis reabilitacia (ix. cxrili).

kontraqtis Tanaxmad, samxreT kavkasiuri gazsadenidan gazis miReba TiTqmis Tanabrad aris ganawilebuli mTel welze. aseT pirobebSi rTulad gadasaWrel teqnikur-ekonomikur problemas warmoadgens satranzito gazsadenidan miRebuli gazis optimaluri utilizacia, zamTar-zafxulis sezonebis mixedviT moxmarebis mkveTri uTanabrobisa da sezonuri nameti an

43

deficituri gazis Senaxvis SesaZleblobis ararsebobis gamo. dReisaTvis problema gadaWrilia azerbaijanul mxaresTan xelmowerili samTavrobo memorandumiTa da mis safuZvelze kompania “sokarsa” da sngk-s Soris xelmowerili grZelvadiani, xelSekrulebiT saWiro raodenobis gazis garantirebuli mowodebis Taobaze socialuri TvalsazrisiT mniSvnelovani momxmareblisaTvis.

rogorc aRiniSna, grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi, azerbaijanuli Sah denizis sabados aTvisebis meore fazis dasrulebis Semdeg mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba saqarTveloze gamavali satranzito nakadebi da Sesabamisi qveynis wili gazis moculobebi (daaxloebiT 1,3-1,6 mlrd m3/w-mde 2018-2025 wlebSi), maTi wlis ganmavlobaSi praqtikulad Tanabari mowodebis pirobebSi.

im pirobebSi, roca qveyana mniSvnelovanwilad aris damokidebuli ZiriTadi saTbobi resursebis importze, miwisqveSa gazsacavi energetikuli resursebis strategiuli moculobebis damaragebisa da energetikuli usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis erT-erTi ganuyofeli atributia, garda amisa, sacavis gamoyeneba saukeTeso, da yvelaze iafi saSualebaa gazis mowodeba-moxmarebis sezonuri disbalansis dasaregulireblad. liberalizebuli bazris pirobebSi ki, roca moxmarebis garkveuli segmentis dakmayofileba spoturi garigebebis safuZvelze miRebuli gaziT xorcieldeba, gazsacavi iZens komerciuli obieqtis funqciasac da mniSvnelovani damatebiTi Semosavlebis miRebis SesaZleblobas iZleva komerciuli saqmianobidan, roca nebismier momwodebels an momxmarebels SeuZlia, Seisyidos da daasawyobos gazi misTvis sasurvel dros da gamoiyenos (an gayidos ufro sarfianad) igi saWiroebisamebr.

garda amisa, Tboeleqtrosadgurebis, iseve rogorc gazze momuSave nebismieri energetikuli obieqtisa da momxmareblisaTvis, aucilebelia sawvavis strategiuli maragebis uzrunvelyofa kritikul situaciebSi maTi Seferxebis gareSe gamoyenebis mizniT, agreTve arsebul wyalsacavian hesebze damaragebuli wylis racionaluri xarjvis dagegmvis ufro efeqturi ganxorcielebisaTvis.

prioritetul sainvestico proeqtebs miekuTvneba, agreTve, ganaxlebadi energetikis obieqtebis sarezervo, gazze momuSave generaciis saSualebebis mSenebloba, romlebic uzrunvelyofen mzardi hidro-, momavalSi ki qaris energetikis klimatis sezonur cvalebadobasTan dakavSirebuli uTanabrobis kompensacias.

rekomendebuli sainvesticio proeqtebis qvemoT mocemuli Sefasebebi, ZiriTadad, iTvaliswinebs danaxarjebs strategiuli daniSnulebis infrastruqturaze, romelTa dafinanseba uzrunvelyofili unda iyos saxelmwifos an saxelmwifos kuTvnili kompaniebis mier (sakuTari an sxvadasxva programiT moziduli TanxebiT). unda aRiniSnos, rom SeTavazebuli sainvesticio prioritetebi, kerZod, strategiuli rezervebis uzrunvelyofis, transsasazRvro da Siga satransporto sistemebis ganviTareba-srulyofa, ZiriTadad, urTierTdamakavSirebeli xazebis (interkonektorebis) proeqtebi (me-3 energetikuli paketis bazaze konkurenciaze dafuZnebuli da integrirebuli bazris Camoyalibebis RonisZiebebis xelSewyobasTan erTad), prioritetebad aris aRiarebuli

44

evrokavSiris sagareo energetikuli politikis mixedviT, rac mniSvnelovnad amartivebs maT finansur uzrunvelyofas sxvadasxva SeRavaTiani saerTaSoriso fondidan.

cxrilSi mocemulia mimdinare aTwleulis gazis seqtorisa da masTan dakavSirebuli mniSvnelovani sainvesticio proeqtebis biujeti. gasagebi mizezebis gamo, gansakuTrebiT msxvili proeqtebis biujeti iTvaliswinebs mxolod pirdapir danaxarjebs, rac moicavs mxolod mowyobilobis SeZenisa da mSeneblobis (montaJis) Rirebulebas. ar aris gaTvaliswinebuli, agreTve, saqarTvelos teritoriaze dagegmili msxvili saerTaSoriso proeqtebiT gaTvaliswinebuli infrastruqturis mSenebloba-ganviTarebisaTvis saWiro investiciebi, romelTa dafinanseba, ZiriTadad, proeqtis realizaciisaTvis Camoyalibebuli konsorciumebis mier iqneba uzrunvelyofili.

cxrili. proeqtebis SefasebiTi Rirebuleba, mln aSS dolari58

sainvesticio proeqtisainvesticio proeqtisainvesticio proeqtisainvesticio proeqti 2013-2015 2016-2021

interkonektorebiinterkonektorebiinterkonektorebiinterkonektorebi

tabawyuri-bakuriani (300 mm, daaxloebiT 20 km) 15-16

rusTavi-sagarejo (300 mm, daaxloebiT 25 km)

vale-vani (700 mm, daaxloebiT 70 km) 20 (80:4)59

magistraluri magistraluri magistraluri magistraluri milsadenebis reabilitaciamilsadenebis reabilitaciamilsadenebis reabilitaciamilsadenebis reabilitacia----ganviTarebaganviTarebaganviTarebaganviTareba

saguramo-gori-vaya (700 mm, daaxloebiT 100 km)

160-165

vaya-quTaisi (700 mm, daaxloebiT 100 km)

azerb. sazRvari - gardabani (700 mm, daaxloebiT 18 km)

sujuna-baTumi (300 mm, daaxloebiT 95 km)

wiTeli xidi - marneuli (500 mm, daaxloebiT 22 km)

sakompresoro sadgurisakompresoro sadgurisakompresoro sadgurisakompresoro sadguri 43

miwisqveSa gazsacavimiwisqveSa gazsacavimiwisqveSa gazsacavimiwisqveSa gazsacavi (mosamzadebeli samuSaoebi da mSeneblobis I etapi) 200-250

TesebiTesebiTesebiTesebi (ganaxlebadi energetikis sarezervo 100-125 da 200-250 mgvt simZlavris gazturbinebi)

100-120

sul investicia 175-180 363-433

saSualo wliuri investicia 55-60 60-75

58 msxvili sainvesticio proeqtebisaTvis aRebulia mxolod mowyobilobisa da mSeneblobis (“sufTa”) Rirebuleba (“overnight erected” costs) da ar aris gaTvaliswinebuli proeqtis realizaciis specifikuri cvalebadi xarjebi, rogorebicaa: miwis Rirebuleba, menejmentis, dafinansebis, dazRvevis, eskalaciisa da sesxis procentis danaxarjebi mSeneblobis periodSi, makavSirebeli milsadenebisa da maRali Zabvis eleqtrogadamcemi xazebis, qvesadgurisa da a.S. danaxarjebi

59 cxrilSi miTiTebulia milsadenis mSeneblobis savaraudo Rirebulebis meoTxedi, radgan misi mSeneblobis sakiTxi realurad daismeba AGRI LNG proeqtis realizaciis SemTxvevaSi da mis farglebSi, romlis ganxorcileba igegmeba monawile 4 qveynis kompaniebis erToblivi ZalisxmeviT

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4.4.4.4. analizis Sedegebi da rekomendaciebianalizis Sedegebi da rekomendaciebianalizis Sedegebi da rekomendaciebianalizis Sedegebi da rekomendaciebi bunebrivi gazi yvelaze iafi, moxmarebisaTvis martivi da ekologiurad

sufTa wiaRiseuli energetikuli resursia saqarTvelos pirobebSi. igi ganaxlebadi resursebis darezervebis yvelaze iafi da moqnili saSualebaa. gazis diversificirebuli momaragebis SesaZlebloba sxvadasxva wyarodan, maT Soris Txevadi da kompresirebuli gazis mowodebis perspeqtivebi, arsebuli da dagegmili satransporto infrastruqturis potenciali marSrutebis diversifikaciisaTvis, uzrunvelyofs qveynis energetikuli usafrTxoebis maRal dones. Sesabamisad, gazis, rogorc ZiriTadi saTbobi resursis, gamoyeneba gardamavali periodis saqarTvelos energetikaSi, adgilobriv ganaxlebad resursebze dafuZnebuli ZviradRirebuli sainvesticio proeqtebis realizaciamde, saxelmwifos erT-erT ZiriTad strategiul prioritetad unda iqnes miCneuli.

rogorc analizi aCvenebs, saqarTveloSi gazis moTxovna-moxmareba 2006-2010 wlebis saSualo 1.6 mlrd m3-dan, 2020-2021 wlebisaTvis daaxloebiT 2,4-3,1 mlrd m3-mde SeiZleba gaizardos. prognozirebuli moTxovnis garantirebuli dakmayofilebisa da qveynis ekonomikis sxvadasxva dargis, energetikisa da sayofacxovrebo seqtoris mdgradi funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofisaTvis regionul sistemebSi integrirebuli da liberaluri, konkurentuli sabazro urTierTobebis pirobebSi, saWiro iqneba rogorc mowodebis wyaroebisa da marSrutebis Semdgomi diversifikaciis xelSewyoba, ise Sesabamisi transportireba-ganawilebisa da damaragebis infrastruqturis ganviTareba, agreTve Sesabamisi institucionaluri da sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebis ganxorcieleba mTlianad energetikasa da, maT Soris, gazis seqtorSi.

globaluri safinanso-ekonomikuri krizisis, energetikul resursebze fasebis mniSvnelovani da mkveTri zrdis, globaluri daTbobiT gamowveuli realuri safrTxeebisa da saqarTvelos gardamavali ekonomikis mzardi moTxovnebis gaTvaliswinebiT energetikul resursebze, mizanSewonilia qveynis energetikuli usafrTxoebis zrdisa da mdgradi ganviTarebis xelSemwyobi Semdegi rekomendaciebis realizacia:

• adgilobrivi energetikuli, maT Soris mdidari hidroresursebis aTvisebis upiratesi xelSewyoba da maT bazaze myari da konkurentunariani bazris Camoyalibeba, energetikuli politikis ZiriTad prioritetad unda darCes. amasTan erTad, klimatur pirobebze damokidebuli ganaxlebadi resursebis maRali wili jamur energetikul balansSi, aucileblad moiTxovs maTi darezervebis saimedo sistemebis Camoyalibebas, risTvisac yvelaze ufro mizanSewonili gazze momuSave generaciis saSualebebia, mezobel qveynebTan energiis mimocvlis infrastruqturul saSualebebTan erTad. garda amisa, hesebis maregulirebeli rezervuarebis saproeqto moculobebis reabilitacia da racionaluri aTviseba, SesaZleblobas iZleva mniSvnelovnad gaizardos qveynis energomomaragebis usafrTxoeba da daizogos aTeul milionobiT danaxarjebi zamTris kritikul periodSi eleqtroenergiis Warbi moTxovnis dakmayofilebisaTvis maTi potencialis gamoyenebis meSveobiT, nacvlad deficituri bunebrivi gazis importis gazrdisa.

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samomxmareblo seqtorSi energoefeqturobisa da energetikaSi ganaxlebadi energetikuli resursebis wilis maqsimaluri zrda, bunebrivi gazis gamoyenebaze dafuZnebul sarezervo sistemebTan erTad, mniSvnelovani potencialis mqone, dReisaTvis arasakmarisad aTvisebuli mimarTulebaa. Sesabamisi proteqcionistuli politikisa da informaciis xelmisawvdomobis uzrunvelyofis SemTxvevaSi, ganaxlebadi resursebis bazaze qveynis usafrTxo da ekonomikurad efeqtur energetikuli seqtoris ganviTarebas unda Caeyaros safuZveli, paralelurad ki uzrunvelyofili iqnes garemos dacvis, qveynisaTvis kritikuli dasaqmebisa da, zogadad, mdgradi ganviTarebis problemebis gadawyveta.

zogadad ki, ganaxlebadi energetikuli resursebis aTvisebisa da energodamzog RonisZiebaTa realizaciis proteqcionistuli, saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi aprobirebuli, saxelmwifo politikis mxardaWera arsebuli potencialisa da globaluri tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, qveynis finansuri danaxarjebis minimizaciisa da saTbobi resursebis, kerZod, ZviradRirebuli importuli bunebrivi gazis mniSvnelovani dazogvis saSualebas iZleva.

• energetikuli sistemebis saimedoobisa da komerciuli konkurentunarianobis amaRlebis mniSvnelovani saSualebaa gazis satranzito milsadenebisa da saerTod energiis arsebuli satranzito da mimocvlis sistemebis aRdgena/ganaxlebisa da mezobel qveynebTan damakavSirebeli axali proeqtebis mxardaWera da realizaciis xelSewyoba, riTac gadawydeba regionuli energetikuli sistemebis integraciis zogadad, da kerZod saqarTvelos mdgradi energomomaragebis problema.

importuli saTbobis mowodebis diversifikaciis xelSewyoba, maT Soris qveynis teritoriaze dagegmili navTob- da gazsadenebis proeqtebis realizaciis meSveobiT, qveynisa da saerTod regionis energetikuli usafrTxoebis amaRlebisa da saerTo ekonomikuri aRmavlobis xelSewyobisaTvis saxelmwifo politikis erT-erT ZiriTad prioritetad unda darCes.

saqarTvelos magistraluri gazsadenebis sistemis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi mimarTulebis aRdgena-ganviTarebis, iseve rogorc dagegmili Semkravebis (interkonektorebis) proeqtebis realizacia, safuZvels Cauyris saqarTvelos gazmomaragebis sistemis Cixuri arqiteqturis Secvlas maRali saimedoobis wriuli (rgoluri) gazmomaragebiT, rac kritikul situaciebSi gazis nakadebis gadamisamarTebis saSualebas iZleva nebismieri momxmareblis garantirebuli gazmomaragebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT da mniSvnelovnad gazrdis saqarTvelos gazmomaragebis erTiani sistemis funqcionirebis arealsa da teqnologiur saimedoobas.

• energetikuli resursebis strategiuli rezervebis Seqmna da gamoyenebis racionaluri dagegmva daabalansebs savaraudo uTanabrobas sezonur mowodebasa da moxmarebas Soris, mniSvnelovnad aamaRlebs qveynis energousafrTxoebas da uzrunvelyofs kritikuli situaciebis mavne zemoqmedebis potencialis mniSvnelovan Serbilebas. saqarTvelos energetikaSi Seqmnil kritikul situaciebze reagireba, rogorc wesi, spontanurad xdeboda, rac gaumarTleblad maRali

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materialuri da adamianuri resursebis mobilizaciis aucileblobas ganapirobebda, zog SemTxvevaSi ki SeuZlebels xdida absoluturad adekvaturi Semarbilebeli RonisZiebebis gatarebas, rac met-naklebad damaxasiaTebelia gardamavali ekonomikis yvela qveynisaTvis da gamowveulia, erTi mxriv, Tavisufali finansuri resursebis deficitiT, meore mxriv ki, mravaldargovani da rTuli energetikuli sistemebis damoukidebeli marTvis gamocdilebis deficitiT. dRevandel etapze, strategiuli rezervebis uzrunvelyofasTan erTad, aucileblad unda iqnas miCneuli riskebis Sefasebisa da krizisis menejmentis gegmebis SemuSaveba mowinave saerTaSoriso gamocdilebis gaTvaliswinebiT da misi realizacia savaraudo kritikuli situaciebis warmoSobis SemTxvevaSi. • energiis avtonomiuri wyaroebis eqspluataciaze dafuZnebuli decentralizebuli meurneobriobis ganviTareba saqarTvelos maRalmTiani, Znelad misadgomi regionebis ekonomikuri zrdisa da mdgradi funqcionirebis uzrunvelyofis efeqturi saSualebaa.... aseTi gadawyvetis erT-erTi xelSemwyobi varianti SeiZleba gaxdes ZviradRirebuli da ekonomikurad gaumarTlebeli milsadenebis mSeneblobis nacvlad qveynis gazsadenebis qseliT moucveli regionebis (mTeli teritoriis daaxloebiT 30 %) momaragebis uzrunvelyofa SedarebiT iafi, martivi da ekologiurad sufTa saTbobiT _ propan-butaniT (navTobis Txevadi gazi – LPG), agreTve gazis transformaciis produqtebiT (kompresirebuli gazi – CNG satransporto seqtoris momxmareblebisaTvis).

rogorc analizi aCvenebs, Txevadi gazis (LPG) fasi saqarTveloSi erT-erTi yvelaze maRalia, miuxedavad ZiriTad momwodebel qveynebTan misi siaxlovisa da, Sesabamisad, satransporto danaxarjebis simcirisa, msoflios sxva momxmarebeli regionebis qveynebTan SedarebiT. energetikuli resursebis, maT Soris Txevadi gazis, fasebis daregulireba konkurenciis uzrunvelyofiTa da mowodebis swori organizaciis dagegmvis xelSewyobiT saxelmwifos erT-erT mniSvnelovani funqcia da pasuxismgeblobaa, miuxedavad Sesabamisi bazris deregulirebisa. amasTan erTad, mTiani da Znelad misadgomi regionebisaTvis saTbobis misawodeblad gankuTvnili satransporto gazsadenebis mSeneblobisa da eqsplutaciisaTvis saWiro danaxarjebi, LPG miwodebis swori organizaciis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes mosaxleobis subsidirebisaTvis.

• navTobproduqtebis fasebis optimizaciis mniSvnelovan potencials Seicavs adgilobriv mopovebuli navTobis gadamamuSavebeli mcire simZlavris warmoebis organizacia (aRdgena Tanamedrove, ekologiurad sufTa teqnologiuri ciklis realizaciiT), risTvisac aucilebelia moqmed kanonmdeblobaSi Sesabamisi cvlilebebis Setana navTobgadamuSavebis adgilobrivi potencialis realizaciisaTvis jansaR konkurentul garemoSi. zogadad ki, qveynis navTobproduqtebis bazari, romelic mTlianad deregulirebulia, eqspertTa azriT, saxelmwifos mxridan garkveuli, maT Soris sakanonmdeblo, iniciativebis gatarebas moiTxovs karteluri da konkurenciis SemzRudavi sxva garigebebis profilaqtikis mizniT.

• mowodebis wyaroebis diversifikaciis pirobebSi sxvadasxva warmomavlobisa da mflobelobis gazis teqnologiuri da Sesabamisi

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finansuri nakadebis efeqturi marTvisaTvis, rac mniSvnelovani komerciuli xasiaTis sirTuleebTan, erTad garkveuli samarTlebrivi riskebis warmoSobis saSiSroebasac qmnis, aucilebeli xdeba normatiul-samarTlebrivi safuZvlebis srulyofisa da saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi aRiarebul normebTan harmonizaciis samuSaoTa dagegmva da realizacia.

energoresursebis miwodeba-ganawilebisa da bazris regulirebis naTeli da gamWvirvale, jansaRi konkurenciis xelSemwyobi institucionaluri da saerTaSoriso kanonmdeblobasTan harmonizebuli sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi uzrunvelyofs sainvesticio klimatis gaumjobesebas da investorTa dainteresebas, kerZo seqtoris farTo monawileobis waxalisebas saqarTvelos energetikul seqtorSi qveynis energetikuli usafrTxoebis mniSvnelovani amaRlebis mizniT. amisaTvis saWiroa ganxorcieldes sacalo miwodebisa da distribuciis funqciebis realuri gamijvna, rac seqtorSi monopolisturi struqturebis Camoyalibebis profilaqtikisa da konkurenciis xelSewyobis saukeTeso saSualeba iqneba.

garda amisa, rogorc analizi aCvenebs, gansakuTrebuli Zalisxmeva aris saWiro bazris struqturis, sazogadoebrivi momsaxurebis valdebulebebis da gamWvirvalobis mkveTri gaumjobesebis mizniT.

ZiriTadi saTbobi resursebis importisa da tranzitis, saxelmwifo mflobelobaSi arsebuli aqtivebis privatizaciis an gasxvisebis sxva formebis, bazris liberalizaciis da sxva strategiuli mniSvnelobis sakiTxebze politikuri iniciativebisa da gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesis gamWvirvaloba farTo sajaroobis pirobebSi erT-erTi aucilebeli pirobaa qveynis mdgradi ganviTarebisaTvis, maT Soris qveynis energetikuli da politikuri usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofisaTvis.

saqarTvelos mtkiced aqvs gadawyvetili evropasa da CrdiloeT atlantikur blokTan integracia, rac regionul energetikul struqturebSi integraciasac gulisxmobs. am miznis miRwevisaTvis ZiriTadi orientirebi mowodebis wyaroebisa da marSrutebis diversifikaciis Semdeg unda iyos infrastruqturis ganviTareba, strategiuli maragebis uzrunvelyofa da kanonmdeblobis harmonizacia, evrokavSiris analogiuri, gaxsnili da konkurentuli bazris Camoyalibebis saboloo mizniT. bazris liberalizaciis evropuli modelisa da mesame energetikuli paketis ZiriTadi principebis implementacia energetikul seqtorSi warmoadgens erTgvar, amasTan mniSvnelovan Sefasebis kriteriums, imis dasturad, Tu ramdenad Seswevs qveyanas unari, warmatebiT gaarTvas Tavi progresul globalur struqturebSi sakuTari ekonomikis integraciis rTul da sapasuxismgeblo process.

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