San Marcos Rotary Club February 19, 2014 San Marcos, Texas Texas Demographic and Health...
-
Upload
angelica-hall -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of San Marcos Rotary Club February 19, 2014 San Marcos, Texas Texas Demographic and Health...
San Marcos Rotary ClubFebruary 19, 2014
San Marcos, Texas
Texas Demographic and Health Characteristics, Trends, and
Projections
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population
3
Percent Change Due to
Year* PopulationNumerical
Change
AnnualPercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06
2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95
2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
4
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Legend
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
5
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
96 counties lost population over the two year period
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population90% had net out migration47% had natural decline
6
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
Percent Increase
1. Midland, Texas 4.62. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7
3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6
4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4
5. Odessa, Texas 3.46. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3
7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.08. Casper, Wyo. 3.0
9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9
10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
7
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
NumericIncrease
1. Harris, Texas 80,005
2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764
3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644
4. Dallas, Texas 45,827
5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880
6. King, Wash. 35,838
7. Travis, Texas 34,381
8. Orange, Calif. 34,017
9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997
10. Clark, Nev. 32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
8Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014
9Ohio
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Colorado
Connecticut
North Dakota
District of Columbia
Montana
Oklahoma
Michigan
Utah
Wyoming
Massachusetts
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Arkansas
Florida
Nevada
Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Kansas
Virginia
Louisiana
New York
California
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000-3,032
-2,566-1,389-1,198
-881-828-739-643-510-451-425-380-284
484204807767978639401,0051,0351,0451,1071,1191,3811,4271,6521,6641,7402,014
2,5252,6952,6952,7822,8923,041
3,6813,7744,0754,1204,1644,2314,288
4,7904,8074,860
5,2719,043
10,02219,697
Estimated Net Migration Between States and Texas, 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011One-year Sample
10
Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012
mill
ions
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic
11
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic
Age
Popu
latio
n
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
12
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male NH White Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
13
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black FemaleNH Asian Female NH Other Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
14
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
15
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20342036
20382040
20422044
20462048
205020,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010
Migration Scenarios
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
16
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
17
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using
Trended Rates, Texas
Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
2011 ACS
2030 Constant
2030 Trended
Educational Attainment
Perc
ent o
f the
Civ
ilian
Labo
r For
ce
Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration ScenarioU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
18
Birth rates for teenagers aged 15–19, by race and Hispanic origin of mother: United States and each and state, 2011
Rank Area All races
and origins
Non- Hispanic
white
Non- Hispanic
blackHispanic
United States 31.3 21.8 47.4 49.4
1 Arkansas 50.7 45.4 66.4 60.42 Mississippi 50.2 40.8 61.4 42.9
3 New Mexico 48.8 28.5 28.4 58.2
4 Oklahoma 47.8 41.1 58.6 68.65 Texas 46.9 27.4 47.4 65.76 Louisiana 45.1 34.5 60.2 50.77 Kentucky 43.5 42.4 51.5 57.6
8 West Virginia 43.5 44.6 40.5 22.5
SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, Division of Vital Statistics. Preliminary data.
19
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
20
Projected Obesity Prevalence by Texas County, 2010 and 2040
% adults with obesity: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection
21
Diabetes Prevalence
% adults with diabetes: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection
22
Percent without health insurance, Texas counties, 2007-2012
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
MitchellNavarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctUninsured
7-15%
15.1-20%
20.1-25%
25.1-30%
30.1-40%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2012
23
Estimated number of persons without health insurance, Texas counties, 2007-2012
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
MitchellNavarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2012
Legend
Numuninsured
20-1,000
1,000-20,000
20,001-200,000
200,001-500,000
500,001-1,080,000
24
Demographics and Destiny
25
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.