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Electoral College Issues Explored through

Mathematics and Data Analysis

NCSS San DiegoDecember 1, 2007

Dr. Tim FryWashburn University

Topeka, [email protected]

Electoral College• Historical Origins & Precedents

• Inquiry Activities

• Games & Activities

• Scrap It, Keep It or Tweak It ?

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Classroom ObjectivesStudents will be able to:

• note historical origins, precedents and changes to the electoral college system especially the small/large state compromise, role of state legislatures and 12th Amendment to the Constitution

• describe some aspects of how the electoral college system works today especially noting the winner takes all in most states

• analyze data from several presidential elections noting popular and electoral vote outcomes with variations, third party/independent candidate effects

• list and describe some current issues for keeping, scrapping or tweaking the electoral college system

Sites for data on popular vote and electoral votes are:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org(Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)

http://nationalatlas.gov

http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu/collections/stats/elections

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/



2000



Florida2000

Related articles by Tim Fry:

“Constitutional Mathematics: Integrating Social Studies and Mathematics,” Law Wise, September 2004

“Lesson Plan #1: The Electoral College Game,” Law Wise, September 2004

http://www.kscourts.org/lawwise/sep2004.htm#math

NCTM ANNUAL CONFERENCE PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA

APRIL 23, 2004

CONSTIT UTIO NAL MATH EMATICS Historical Background— With the phrase --“in order to form a more perfect union,” the Preamble of the Constitution of the United States admits that there were some problems with the nation’s first plan for government known as the Articles of Confederation. Question: How did the founding fathers solve many of these problems? Answer: With mathematical solutions

Electoral College--Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments

• Tough assignment-How to elect a president? large/small states; central/federal versus states power; balance of

power between Congress & the Presidency; little communication between states-

• Several Proposals • 1) have the Congress choose• 2) state legislatures choose • 3) direct popular vote-favorite son & large vs. small • 4) College of electors--indirect election in which each state

legislatures would choose knowledgeable and informed individuals to select the president based solely on merit and without regard to State of origin or political party.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org


Electoral College--Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments

The First Design-- Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution•Each State allocated number of Electors equal to its congressional delegation.•The manner of choosing the Electors was left to the individual State legislatures.• In order to prevent Electors from voting only for a "favorite son" of their own State, each Elector was required to cast two votes for president, at least one of which had to be for someone outside their home State. •The person with the most electoral votes, provided that it was an absolute majority became president. Whoever obtained the next greatest number of electoral votes became vice president.• In the event that no one obtained an absolute majority in the Electoral College or in the event of a tie vote, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose the president from among the top five contenders. The vice presidency would go to whatever remaining contender had the greatest number of electoral votes. If that, too, was tied, the U.S. Senate would break the tie by deciding between the two.




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1792



1796



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1800



Historical Origins, Precedents, Amendments

The Second Design (after four elections and rise of political parties)

the 12th Amendment (1804) requires that:

+ each Elector cast one vote for president and a separate vote for vice president

+ if no one receives an absolute majority of electoral votes for president, then the U.S. House of Representatives will select the president from among the top three contenders with each State casting only one vote and an absolute majority being required to elect.

+ if no one receives an absolute majority for vice president, then the U.S. Senate will select the vice president from among the top two contenders for that office.



1804



1824





1960

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list

Election Inquiry Activity Map #1

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/elections.html#list

Election Inquiry Activity Map #2

Election Inquiry Activity QuestionsUse Inquiry Activity Maps #1&#2 to answer the following questions about

Presidential Elections from 1972-2000(sample questions)1. What three elections did the Republicans win the electoral vote by a

landslide?2. Which election was the closest in number of electoral votes?3. Which election was close in the popular vote but a landslide in the

electoral vote?4. Name at least one state in which the same political party has won all eight

elections.5. Note an election that was close in both the electoral vote and the popular

vote.6. In which election did the Democratic candidate do the poorest in number

of electoral votes?7. In which election did the winner of the popular vote lose the electoral

vote?

“Electoral Vote Density”

Number of voters divided by electoral votes

Varies greatly between California and Wyoming

California Electoral Vote Density: 651,659 persons per EV

Wyoming Electoral Vote Density: 168,511persons per EV

2004 Election



1984 Wyoming



1984Maryland

Lesson Plan: The Electoral College Game Grade level: 5-9 Objectives: Students should be able to note some characteristics of the electoral college system in the united States. Specifically be able to note the wide range of electoral votes among the states and how that might affect where candidates and campaigns focus their efforts, how many electoral votes it takes to be elected president, and possibly how winning several small states can affect the outcome of the election. Materials: Handout of game rules-- one for each student or group; tally sheet for states visited handout—one for each group; Procedures: Set/Focus Question: If you were a candidate for President would you spend a lot of time campaigning in Kansas? Why or why not? Teaching Strategies: Lead review discussion on some of the main characteristics of electoral system.

• President not elect ed by national popular vote but by electo ralcollege vote.

• Eachstate has a popul ar vote t hat determines who gets t hestate’s electo ral votes-popular winner takes all electoral vot esfro mt hat state

• States’ electoral vote based largely o n population—tot alelectoral votes in each state is the sum of US Senators pl usmembers in the US Hou se of Representative .s All states hav e2 Senato rs and populati on determines t he numbe r ofrepresentatives in the House. Kansa 2s has Senators and 4 Representatives in the Ho use for a total of 6 electoral vot .es

• Rang e of electoral votes from a minimu mof 3 in several stat es to55 in

California • Must ha vemajority of 538 total electoral votes or at le 27ast 0

electoral vot .es

ELECTORAL COLLEGE GAME RULES

1.You have three people who may actually visit states and gain points there. 2. The presidential candidate can visit only 15 states. If he/she visits a state, you get three (3) campaign points. 3. The vice-presidential candidate can visit 18 states. If he/she visits a state, you get two (2) campaign points. 4. The campaign worker may visit up to 25 states; you only get 1 campaign point when a campaign worker visits. 5. All three may visit one state for a total of 6 campaign points for that state. Or: 5a) Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates visit a state ---5 points 5b) Presidential candidate and campaign worker visit a state—4 points 5c) Vice-presidential candidate and support worker visit a state--3 points 6. The other people in your group are there to help you make decisions but can not earn any campaign points. 7. If your team has the most campaign points in that state, your candidates win the electoral votes for that state. 8. If there is a tie in campaign points for any state, we will draw for the winner of that state’s electoral votes.

Other resources/sites

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/index.html




Other resources/sites

http://www.timeforkids.com/TFK/games/white/0,9970,96321,00.html

http://www.timeforkids.com/TFK/games/white/0,9970,96321,00.html

Keep it,

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Electoral College

Some Arguments for the Electoral College

maintains a federal system of government and representation----”nationalization of our central government”--”state’s choice”

contributes to the political stability of the nation by encouraging a two-party system and political stability---diffficult for minor party to win enough popular votes to get electoral votes--forces fringe or extreme ideas to the middle and also sometimes forces majority parties to adopt new ideas to maintain support--assimilation process--pragmatism

contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president--Candidates must build coaltions of states and regions (urban and rural) & without it the EC comes the possibilty of domination of one large populous region or of urban over rural interests

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon

Four Arguments Against the Electoral College: * the possibility of electing a numerically minority president

narrow popular vote in large state-winner take all

* the risk of so-called "faithless" Electors1988-Dukakis/Bensen-West Virginia Elector switched them

* the possible role of the Electoral College in depressing voter turnoutother elections always taking place as well

* its failure to accurately reflect the national popular willseven least populous states combined voters of about 3 million and 25 electoral votes the same as almost 10 million voters in Florida with the same 25 electoral votes--electoral vote density

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/INFORMATION/electcollege_procon

Tweak It ?

District Method

Two Electors At Large and one Electors for each Congressional District are pledged to each Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket (the Electors' names may or may not appear on the ballot). The At-Large Electors pledged to the ticket having received the plurality of votes state-wide are chosen. The Elector pledged to the ticket having received the plurality of votes within each Congressional District is chosen.

* This method was used by Michigan in the 1892 Election, splitting electors Rep 9 to Dem 5 * Maine adopted this method in 1969 (first used in 1972), but has yet to split any electors * Nebraska adopted this method in 1991 (first used in 1992), but has yet to split any electors

http://uselectionatlas.org

Your Thoughts on the Electoral College?

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