Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics

Urban Decarbonisation:Experience in the UK

Seminar at the Intelligent City Salon Berlin, 15 Juni 2011

Sam FankhauserGrantham Research Institute and CCCEPLondon School of Economics

Support by the ESRC and the Grantham Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

Overview

• Britain’s carbon targets

• Decarbonising transport

• Decarbonising buildings

• Decarbonising electric power

The 2008 Climate Change Act

• Sets legally binding carbon targets

• Long-term (2050) target set in the Act

• Binding 5-year carbon budgets set 12 years ahead— First three budgets (2008–22) set in 2009— Fourth budget (2023-27) to be determined later in 2011

• Puts in place an institutional framework for delivery

• Independent Committee on Climate Change recommends budgets and reports on progress

Global emissions peak by 2020, halve by 2050

Science

Climate Objective• Expected temperature

change as little above 2oC as possible

• Risk of 4 oC at very low levels (e.g. <1%)

International Circumstances

The mandatory 2050 target

UK 2050 legislated target80% reduction in GHG from 1990, all sources

178

135

97

109

94

42

2007 emissions

International aviation & international shipping*

UK non-CO2 GHGs

Other CO2

Industrial CO2 (heat & industrial processes)

Residential, public & commercial heat

Domestic transport

Electricity generation

* bunker fuels basis 2050 objective

159 Mt CO2e

679 Mt CO2e

76% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)

Set in the Climate Change Act, as recommended by the CCC

The carbon budgets 2008 - 27

Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

Interim Budget is currently legislated, CCC recommends tightening

Indicative emissions trajectories


Different sectors will have different emission reduction paths

The special role of cities

Source: Kennedy et al 2009

Sources of urban greenhouse gas emissions

Overview





Transport emissionsTechnological change dominates demand management

Key technology targets for 2020

• New car efficiency of 95 gCO2/km

− Through a combination of vehicle technologies

• 1.7m battery and plug-in hybrid electric cars

− 16% of new car sales and 5% of fleet

• New van efficiency of 135 gCO2/km

• Biofuel penetration of 8%

− Mostly for buses, HGVs, some PHEVs

− Limited availability of sustainable biofuels

A combination of vehicle technologies

Fleet average emissions:81 g/km

Distance (km)

Plug-inhybrids:50 g/km20% of km

Pure electrics:• 0 gCO2/km• 10% of miles

0

50

80

125

70%

Conventional cars:• 80-125 g/km• 70% of km

100%

Emis

sion

s In

tens

ity g

CO2/

km

Emissions intensity of cars – by type and distance

How different technologies might add up


Encouraging electric car uptake

• Price incentives

− Government subsidy of £5,000 on new cars

− Differentiation in road tax, excise duty, London Congestion Charge

• Provide recharging points

− London: 1,300 charging points by 2013

− Although experience shows most people charge at home

Key behavioural targets

• Ecodriving

− Train 10% of car / van drivers, all HGV drivers

• Enforcing speed limits on motorways

• Smarter choices program in all cities and towns

– Policies encouraging car sharing, working from home, use of public transport

• Introduction of road pricing?

– In addition to, not instead of fuel duty

Smarter choices• Pilot programme to change travel behaviour

– Workplace, school and personal travel plans

– Personalised travel planning, travel awareness campaigns, and public transport information

– Car clubs and car sharing schemes

– Teleworking, teleconferencing and home shopping

• Three pilot sustainable travel towns

– Darlington, Peterborough and Worcester

– £15million over 5 years (2004-09)

Smarter choices: Pilot results

Improve efficiency of conventional vehicles

Encourage uptake of electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen vehicles

(e.g. more stringent new car CO2 target-based regulation, complementing fuel duty)

(e.g. taxes/subsidies on fuel/vehicles or very stringent new vehicle CO2 regulation)

Manage additional electricity demand (e.g. Smart meters and time-of-day tariffs)

Encourage deployment of hydrogen buses (e.g. regulation, economic instruments)

Continue to reduce travel demand (e.g. Smarter Choices, incentives to improve logistics, land use planning)

Encourage sustainable biofuels

Key policy levers

(e.g. Regulation mandating minimum life-cycle emissions saving)

Overview





Emissions from buildingsPush in energy efficiency and gradual introduction of renewable heat

A boost in energy efficiency


Budgets 1, 2 and 3

Targets on insulation, boilers and appliances

The role of new heat technologies


Renewable sources of heat emerging in the 2020s

Energy efficiency measures

• Supplier obligations

− Carbon Emission Reduction Target (CERT)

• Financial assistance

− “Green Deal” (for building efficiency)

− Green Investment Bank (for large investments)

• Information and technical assistance

− Carbon Trust, Energy Savings Trust

• Reputation and management incentives

− CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme

Tariff structure(e.g. block tariffs)

Income support(e.g. winter fuel payments)

Targeted energy efficiency

Energy efficiency and fuel povertyEnergy efficiency could take 300,000 households out of fuel poverty

Overview





Electric power emissions


Electricity generation needs to be all but carbon-free in 20 years

Wholesale replacement of generating assets

Source: CCC (2009, 2010) on shore offshore

Many power stations due for replacement in the 2020s anyway

Has it worked?


Emissions are within budget, but mostly due to the recession

Urban Decarbonisation:Experience in the UK

Seminar at the Intelligent City Salon Berlin, 15 Juni 2011

Sam FankhauserGrantham Research Institute and CCCEPLondon School of Economics

Support by the ESRC and the Grantham Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics

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